Core Viewpoint - MGM China (02282) rebounded over 3%, indicating a potential overreaction in its recent stock price adjustment according to Goldman Sachs [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - MGM China's stock price increased by 3.02%, reaching HKD 12.61, with a trading volume of HKD 52.6374 million [1] - The stock had previously dropped approximately 19% following the announcement of additional royalty fees to the parent company [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - Goldman Sachs estimates that the additional royalty fees will impact EBITDA by about 6% to 7% [1] - The earnings forecast for MGM China has been revised down by approximately 13% to 14% [1] Group 3: Dividend and Valuation - If the company maintains a dividend payout ratio of around 50%, it may lead to a reduction in the per-share dividend [1] - MGM China's valuation has decreased to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of about 8 times for the fiscal year 2026, compared to the industry average of 11 to 12 times [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating, suggesting that the current price level is attractive, with a target price set at HKD 18.4 [1]

Group 1 - MGM China (02282) rebounded over 3%, currently up 3.02% at HKD 12.61, with a trading volume of HKD 52.6374 million [1] - Goldman Sachs released a report estimating that MGM China will incur an additional royalty fee to its parent company, impacting EBITDA by approximately 6% to 7% and leading to a profit forecast downgrade of about 13% to 14% [1] - Following the announcement of the royalty fee, MGM China's stock price dropped by approximately 19%, with the valuation level now at a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of about 8 times for the fiscal year 2026, compared to the industry average of 11 to 12 times [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on MGM China, suggesting that the recent stock price adjustment appears excessive, with a target price set at HKD 18.4 [1] - If the company maintains a dividend payout ratio of around 50%, it may lead to a reduction in the dividend per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs estimates that MGM China will experience an approximately 6% to 7% impact on EBITDA due to additional royalty fees paid to its parent company, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts by about 13% to 14% [1] Financial Impact - The expected reduction in profit forecasts may result in a decrease in the dividend per share if the company maintains a payout ratio of around 50% [1] - Following the announcement regarding the royalty fees, MGM China's stock price fell by approximately 19% [1] Valuation - The current valuation level has dropped to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of about 8 times for the fiscal year 2026, compared to the industry average of 11 to 12 times [1] - Goldman Sachs considers the current price level attractive and maintains a "buy" rating, suggesting that the recent stock price adjustment appears to be excessive [1] - A target price of HKD 18.4 is set for MGM China [1]

Group 1: Macau Gaming Industry Performance - Macau's gross gaming revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to 20.9 billion MOP, meeting the lower end of market expectations, influenced by lower VIP room win rates in the last one to two weeks [1] - For the full year, gross gaming revenue is expected to rise slightly above 9%, compared to market expectations of 7% to 8% [1] - The number of inbound travelers to Macau from mainland China increased by 22% year-on-year, driven by tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, with total inbound travelers growing by 18% in November [1] Group 2: Quarterly Performance and Market Share - The quarterly gross gaming revenue for the industry is projected to rise by 14% year-on-year to 66.1 billion MOP, accelerating from 1% to 13% growth in the first three quarters of the year, returning to 92% of pre-pandemic levels [1] - Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau saw slight increases in market share last month, while Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and Sands China are expected to be market share winners in the fourth quarter [1] Group 3: MGM China's License Fee Increase - MGM China announced that its license fee will double to 3.5% of net revenue, with an annual cap raised to 18.83 million USD for this year [2] - This new agreement is expected to lead to a 6% to 7% downward adjustment in EBITDA forecasts for the next two fiscal years, and a 13% to 14% reduction in profit forecasts [2] - Consequently, the target price for MGM China has been lowered from 20.1 HKD to 18.4 HKD [2]

Group 1: Macau Gaming Industry Performance - Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) increased by 15% year-on-year to MOP 20.9 billion, slightly below market expectations [1] - For the full year, GGR is expected to rise by just over 9%, compared to market expectations of 7% to 8% [1] - The growth in inbound travelers from mainland China, particularly due to tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, contributed to an 18% year-on-year increase in visitor numbers in November [1] - The quarterly GGR for the industry rose by 14% year-on-year to MOP 66.1 billion, recovering to 92% of pre-pandemic levels [1] - Market share for Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau slightly increased, while SJM Holdings, Wynn Macau, and Melco Resorts may lose market share [1] Group 2: MGM China Financial Adjustments - MGM China announced a significant increase in its licensing fee to 3.5% of net revenue, with an annual cap raised to USD 18.83 million [2] - This new agreement is expected to lead to a 6% to 7% downward adjustment in EBITDA forecasts for the next two fiscal years, and a 13% to 14% reduction in profit forecasts [2] - Consequently, the target price for MGM China was lowered from HKD 20.1 to HKD 18.4 [2]

公司名稱: 美高梅中國控股有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2026年1月5日 FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02282 | 說明 | 普通股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 10,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 10,000,000,0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Macau's total gaming revenue reached 20.9 billion MOP in December last year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.8%, slightly below Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 18% growth, and recovering to 91.5% of the level seen in December 2019 [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - The performance of total gaming revenue in December was primarily driven by the continued rollout of new high-end property projects [1] - Various entertainment activities and promotional plans contributed to an increase in visitor numbers [1] - However, the low VIP win rate posed a certain drag on overall revenue [1] Group 2: Future Projections - CICC forecasts that total gaming revenue in January 2026 will reach between 20.2 billion to 21.7 billion MOP, with average daily gaming revenue expected to be between 650 million to 700 million MOP [1] - Year-on-year growth is projected to be between 10% to 19%, but this is expected to be a decline of 13% to 19% compared to January 2019 [1] Group 3: Stock Preferences - CICC's preference ranking for sector stocks remains unchanged, listed in order as MGM China, Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, Melco International Development, Wynn Macau, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, and SJM Holdings [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that MGM China (02282) has finalized a new brand licensing agreement with its parent company, MGM International, which will align with MGM China's current gaming operation rights [1] - The brand licensing fee is considered to be in line with the global brand and licensing market and is positioned at a high end compared to its peers in Macau [1] - The firm has given a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19 [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, the increase in brand licensing fees will lead to a 6% decline in MGM China's adjusted EBITDA by 2026, and a 10% drop in net profit [1] - If the company maintains a 50% dividend payout ratio, the per-share dividend for the fiscal year 2026/27 is expected to decrease accordingly, indicating potential room for a review of the dividend policy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that MGM China (02282) has finalized a new brand licensing agreement with its parent company, MGM International, which will align with MGM China's current gaming license period [1] - The brand licensing fee is considered to be within the range of the global brand and licensing market and is positioned at a high end compared to its peers in Macau [1] - The company is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19 [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, the increase in brand licensing fees will lead to a 6% decline in MGM China's adjusted EBITDA by 2026, and a 10% drop in net profit [1] - If the company maintains a 50% dividend payout ratio, the per-share dividend for the fiscal year 2026/27 is expected to decrease accordingly, indicating potential room for a review of the dividend policy [1]

Group 1 - Jefferies reports that MGM China has finalized a new brand licensing agreement with its parent company, MGM International, which will align with MGM China's current gaming license period [1] - The brand licensing fee is considered to be within the range of the global brand and licensing market and is positioned at the high end among its Macau peers [1] - Jefferies anticipates that, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, the increase in brand licensing fees will lead to a 6% decline in MGM China's adjusted EBITDA and a 10% drop in net profit for 2026 [1] Group 2 - If the company maintains a 50% dividend payout ratio, the per-share dividend for the fiscal year 2026/27 is expected to decrease accordingly, indicating potential room for a review of the dividend policy [1] - Jefferies has assigned a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 19 [1]