Core Insights - The article discusses the author's long-term experience with MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) since its IPO in 2007, highlighting its evolution from a perceived platform for stolen goods to a significant player in the fintech and e-commerce sectors [1]. Group 1 - The author has been a shareholder and customer of MercadoLibre, providing a unique perspective on its growth and challenges over the years [1]. - The author has extensive experience analyzing various industries, including airlines, oil, retail, mining, fintech, and e-commerce, which contributes to a comprehensive understanding of MercadoLibre's business model [1]. - The author has navigated multiple economic crises, including the dot-com bubble, 9/11, the great recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which informs their analysis of MercadoLibre's resilience and adaptability [1].

Core Insights - MercadoLibre's stock surged 20% in April, benefiting from its operations outside the U.S. amid tariff program disruptions [1] - The company is a leading e-commerce player in 18 Latin American countries, experiencing high double-digit growth with significant room for expansion [2] - MercadoLibre has a strong fintech segment that evolved from serving underbanked customers to offering a comprehensive financial services platform [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, MercadoLibre reported a 96% year-over-year revenue increase (currency neutral), with gross merchandise volume up 56% and total payment volume up 49% [5] - Assets under management rose by 129%, and the total credit portfolio increased by 74% [5] - Operating income grew from $335 million to $820 million year-over-year, with the operating margin expanding from 13.5% to 14.1% [5] Growth Strategy - The management outlined a five-pronged long-term strategy focusing on e-commerce growth, media and advertising expansion, enhanced access to financial services, new business capture for retail merchants, and increased shareholder value [6] - Improvements in logistics and delivery times have been implemented, including the opening of new fulfillment centers to enhance same-day delivery capabilities [7] Market Position - The company issued 5.9 million new credit cards last year, more than doubling its credit portfolio, indicating strong growth in its fintech operations [8] - Investors view MercadoLibre as a safe short-term investment with substantial long-term growth potential, particularly due to its insulation from U.S. tariff impacts [8]

Core Viewpoint - MercadoLibre (MELI) is expected to report strong first-quarter 2025 results, with revenue estimates of $5.53 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 27.54%, and earnings per share estimated at $7.67, indicating a growth of 13.13% year-over-year [1] Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 revenues in Argentina is $1.15 billion, showing an 11.9% decline year-over-year [11] - Brazil's revenue estimate stands at $3.08 billion, indicating a decrease of 1.72% from the previous year [11] - Mexico's revenue is estimated at $1.21 billion, reflecting a 9.94% decline year-over-year [11] - Revenues from other countries are projected at $271 million, suggesting a slight increase of 0.74% year-over-year [12] Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, MercadoLibre achieved an earnings surprise of 73.69%, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 16.37% [4] Factors Influencing Results - The e-commerce platform saw significant growth in 2024, reaching over 100 million unique buyers, with enhancements in user experience and new features expected to boost customer satisfaction [6] - Strong user frequency and growth in low-ticket categories are anticipated to continue, contributing positively to the top line [7] - The advertising business is expected to have marginally contributed to revenue growth, with improvements in advertising technology and partnerships [7] - Mercado Pago, the fintech arm, surpassed 60 million monthly active users, supported by new credit card launches and flexible payment options, which are likely to enhance engagement and top-line growth [8][9] Competitive Landscape - Increased competition from e-commerce giants like Amazon, Alibaba, and Walmart is expected to have intensified, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, potentially impacting margins and user retention [10] Stock Performance and Valuation - MELI shares have returned 34.1% year-to-date, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale and S&P 500 indices, indicating strong market performance [13] - The stock currently trades at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 4.15X, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 1.86X, suggesting high growth expectations but an unattractive valuation for value investors [17] Investment Considerations - The company enters the first quarter of 2025 with strong engagement across its platforms, but seasonality and increased promotional activity may pressure revenues and profits [20] - Long-term growth potential exists through rising GMV and fintech service expansion, but investors may benefit from patience ahead of earnings results [21]

Core Insights - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research methodology emphasizes a structured framework to identify companies with durable business models and mispriced cash flow potential, prioritizing simplicity and relevance in valuation [1] - The coverage focuses on underappreciated companies experiencing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] Research Methodology - Moretus Research employs rigorous fundamental analysis combined with a judgment-driven process, avoiding noise and overly complex forecasting [1] - Valuation is based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, emphasizing comparability and simplicity [1] Investment Philosophy - The research reflects a deep respect for capital, discipline, and long-term compounding, aiming to elevate the standard for independent investment research [1] - The insights provided are designed to be actionable, focusing on what truly matters in modern equity analysis [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market presents fantastic values, and potential stock market resurgence may depend on tariff developments in the coming months [1] - Four stocks are highlighted as top buys, positioned for long-term success regardless of short-term market fluctuations [1] Group 2: Nvidia - Nvidia is a key player in the AI arms race, with its GPUs driving significant growth [3] - Analysts project 54% revenue growth for Fiscal 2026 and 23% growth for Fiscal 2027, with potential for even higher growth if the data center market expands rapidly [4] - Data center capital expenditures are expected to rise from $400 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion by 2028, indicating substantial growth potential for Nvidia [5] - Nvidia's stock trades at nearly 25 times forward earnings, making it an attractive buy ahead of Q1 earnings report [6] Group 3: Alphabet - Alphabet's Q1 earnings report was positive, with management optimistic about integrating AI features despite tariff-related headwinds [7] - The company faces long-term challenges from two court cases regarding alleged monopolistic practices in its search engine and advertising business [8] - Alphabet's stock is trading at approximately 16.7 times forward earnings, significantly cheaper than the S&P 500's valuation, suggesting it is undervalued [9] Group 4: Taiwan Semiconductor - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is benefiting from the AI boom by producing chips for major industry players [10] - The company has not yet felt the impact of tariffs and maintains a revenue growth forecast of mid-20% for 2025, with a long-term CAGR of about 20% over the next five years [11] - TSMC's stock trades at 17.8 times forward earnings, indicating a historically cheap price [13] Group 5: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre is the leading e-commerce platform in Latin America, combining elements of PayPal and Amazon [14] - The company has shown consistent revenue and earnings growth, remaining relatively insulated from U.S. tariff decisions due to its focus on Latin America [15] - Strong growth is expected to continue as Latin America is still developing its e-commerce infrastructure, making it a compelling investment opportunity [17]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre, Inc. will release its financial results for the first fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2025, on May 7, 2025 [1] - The company will host a video conference, conference call, and audio webcast on the same day at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time [1] Company Overview - MercadoLibre is the largest online commerce ecosystem in Latin America, based on unique visitors and processed orders, and is a leading fintech platform in the region [5] - The company operates in 18 countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Peru [5] E-commerce and Fintech Services - MercadoLibre provides a robust and safe environment for buyers and sellers, fostering a large e-commerce community in Latin America, which has a population of over 650 million [6] - The company offers world-class technological and commercial solutions tailored to the cultural and geographic challenges of digital commerce in Latin America [6] - Through its fintech platform, MercadoPago, the company provides a comprehensive set of financial technology services, including digital accounts, online payments, insurance, savings, investments, and credit lines for individuals and merchants [7]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) has had a strong start in 2025, leading to positive investor sentiment [1] Company Performance - The stock prices referenced were from the afternoon of April 29, 2025, indicating a specific timeframe for the performance evaluation [1] - The video discussing this performance was published on May 1, 2025, providing timely insights into the company's status [1]

Market Overview - Marketwide challenges, such as President Trump's tariff policies, have led to short-term focus among investors, resulting in panic-selling and a declining stock market [1] - Despite these challenges, a long-term investment strategy focusing on top companies remains effective [1] Company Analysis: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre has seen a stock increase of 25% this year, outperforming broader equities [3] - As the leading e-commerce platform in Latin America, MercadoLibre offers a comprehensive suite of products, including fintech and logistics services [3][4] - The company is less affected by U.S. tariffs due to its focus on South American customers, positioning it well in a volatile environment [4] - Strong revenue growth and significant earnings increases have characterized MercadoLibre's financial performance [5] - The global e-commerce industry is expected to continue growing, benefiting MercadoLibre, which has established logistics and a strong reputation [7] - The company's ability to fend off competition, including from Amazon, suggests it will continue to thrive in the coming decade [9] Company Analysis: DexCom - DexCom specializes in diabetes-focused medical devices, particularly continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems, which are crucial for diabetes management [10] - The company has launched innovative products, including the G7 and DexCom One, catering to various customer segments [11] - Key growth drivers for DexCom include increased CGM penetration, expanded coverage from third-party payers, and market expansion into new regions [12][13] - With less than 1% of diabetes patients currently using CGM technology, there is significant growth potential for DexCom [13] - Despite competition from Abbott Laboratories and some impact from tariffs, DexCom's future growth prospects remain strong [15]

Core Insights - Mercado Libre is the leading e-commerce and fintech platform in Latin America, with a significant focus on financial digitization and payment processing [1][5] - In 2024, Mercado Pago processed a total payment value of $142 billion, establishing itself as the largest fintech acquirer in the region [2] - Mexico presents a substantial opportunity for financial digitization, with cash transactions still representing 38% of transaction value [3][4] Company Overview - Founded in 1999, MercadoLibre, Inc operates in 18 countries, providing a comprehensive ecosystem for e-commerce and financial services [5] - The company aims to enhance access to commerce and financial services in Latin America, leveraging technology to create tailored solutions [5]

Company Overview - MercadoLibre operates primarily in e-commerce and has a significant fintech segment, serving 18 countries in Latin America with consistent high growth across various metrics [3][4] - The company reported a 96% year-over-year increase in revenue, a 56% rise in gross merchandise volume, and a 49% increase in total payment volume for the fourth quarter of 2024 [3] E-commerce Growth - The e-commerce sector is still experiencing rapid growth, with items sold increasing by 27% year over year and unique buyers rising by 24%, surpassing 100 million total buyers [4] - Management is implementing strategies to attract new customers and retain existing ones, such as opening new fulfillment centers and expanding free shipping options [4] Fintech Expansion - Monthly active users in the fintech segment grew by 34% year over year, exceeding 60 million [5] - The credit business saw assets under management increase by 129%, with the total credit portfolio up by 74%, indicating strong growth in this area [5] Market Potential - MercadoLibre has a first-mover advantage in the Latin American market, which is still developing in terms of e-commerce and fintech services [6] - E-commerce penetration in Latin America is currently at 14.4% of total retail sales and is projected to reach 17.7% by 2028, indicating significant growth potential [7] Digital Disruption - The financial industry in Latin America is underdeveloped, with only half of the adult population in Mexico having a bank account and less than 20% holding a credit card [8] - MercadoLibre is well-positioned to capitalize on this disruption and continue its growth trajectory by bringing more users online [8] Tariff Impact - As a non-U.S. company, MercadoLibre is less affected by U.S. tariff issues, providing a hedge for investors concerned about the current trade environment [9][10] - The company has opened its first U.S. distribution center in Texas to facilitate cross-border commerce, further enhancing its operational capabilities [9] Valuation and Future Outlook - Despite a 58% stock price increase over the past year, MercadoLibre's forward P/E ratio is 34, which is below its five-year average, suggesting potential for continued investment [11] - While growth rates may eventually slow, the company is expected to maintain robust growth due to ongoing market penetration and the introduction of new services [12]