格隆汇8月5日｜炼油商马拉松原油公布，第二季度营收同比下降11%至341亿美元，分析师预期为330.6 亿美元；净利润同比下降20%至12.2亿美元，调整后每股收益也为3.96美元，分析师预期为3.22美元。 ...

分组1 - Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reported quarterly earnings of $3.96 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.22 per share, but down from $4.12 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +22.98% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $34.1 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.33%, although this is a decrease from year-ago revenues of $38.36 billion [2] - Marathon Petroleum has consistently outperformed consensus EPS and revenue estimates over the last four quarters [2] 分组2 - The stock has increased approximately 20.4% since the beginning of the year, compared to a 7.6% gain in the S&P 500 [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $4.20 on revenues of $31.29 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $8.03 on revenues of $121.2 billion [7] - The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is currently ranked in the bottom 39% of Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stocks in this sector [8]

Financial Performance - Net income attributable to Marathon Petroleum Corp. for Q2 2025 was $1.2 billion, or $3.96 per diluted share, down from $1.5 billion, or $4.33 per diluted share in Q2 2024[3]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $3.3 billion, compared to $3.4 billion in Q2 2024, reflecting strong refining execution and midstream performance[4]. - Total revenues for Q2 2025 were $34,101 million, a decrease of 8.3% from $38,362 million in Q2 2024[29]. - Net income attributable to MPC for Q2 2025 was $1,216 million, down 19.7% from $1,515 million in Q2 2024[29]. - Adjusted net income attributable to MPC for Q2 2025 was $1,216 million, down from $1,515 million in Q2 2024, a decrease of 19.7%[43]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was $5,261 million, down 21.4% from $6,696 million in the same period of 2024[46]. Segment Performance - Refining & Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA was $1.9 billion in Q2 2025, down from $2.0 billion in Q2 2024, with a margin of $6.79 per barrel compared to $7.28 per barrel in the prior year[8]. - Refining & Marketing margin for Q2 2025 was $17.58 per barrel, slightly up from $17.53 per barrel in Q2 2024[31]. - Refining & Marketing refined product sales volume increased to 3,835 mbpd in Q2 2025 from 3,706 mbpd in Q2 2024, a growth of 3.5%[32]. - Refining & Marketing gross margin for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was $2,028 million, down 37.5% from $3,243 million in the same period of 2024[48]. - The Gulf Coast region contributed $1,845 million to the Refining & Marketing margin in Q2 2025, down from $1,882 million in Q2 2024[48]. Capital Expenditures and Shareholder Returns - Capital returned to shareholders in Q2 2025 totaled approximately $1.0 billion, including $692 million in share repurchases[6]. - Capital expenditures for Q2 2025 totaled $1,065 million, an increase of 87% compared to $569 million in Q2 2024[30]. - The company is executing high-return investments at its refineries, with capital spending in 2025 expected to include $100 million for the Los Angeles refinery and $200 million for the Galveston Bay refinery[15]. Operational Metrics - Crude capacity utilization was 97%, resulting in total throughput of 3.1 million barrels per day in Q2 2025[9]. - Refining operating costs per barrel are projected to be $5.70 for Q3 2025, with planned turnaround costs estimated at $400 million[19]. - Crude oil refining capacity utilization was 97% in Q2 2025, consistent with Q2 2024[32]. - Total pipeline throughputs for the Midstream segment reached 6,219 mbpd in Q2 2025, an increase from 6,129 mbpd in Q2 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.5%[38]. Cash and Debt Position - As of June 30, 2025, Marathon Petroleum had $1.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with no borrowings under its $5 billion revolving credit facility[13]. - The total consolidated debt as of June 30, 2025, was $28,654 million, down from $30,910 million at the end of Q1 2025, a reduction of 7.3%[40]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $1,673 million as of June 30, 2025, compared to $3,812 million at the end of Q1 2025, a decline of 56.1%[40]. Renewable Diesel Segment - Renewable Diesel margin improved to $49 million in Q2 2025, up from $37 million in Q2 2024, marking a 32.4% increase[39]. - Renewable Diesel segment adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $(19) million, an improvement from $(27) million in Q2 2024[50]. - Renewable Diesel gross margin for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was $(215) million, compared to $(194) million in the same period of 2024[50]. Strategic Focus - The company is focused on executing its sustainable energy strategy and achieving its ESG goals within expected timeframes[29].

Financial Performance - Marathon Petroleum Corp. reported net income attributable to MPC of $1.2 billion, or $3.96 per diluted share, for Q2 2025, a decrease from $1.5 billion, or $4.33 per diluted share, in Q2 2024 [1][27] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $3.3 billion, down from $3.4 billion in Q2 2024 [2][46] - Total revenues and other income for Q2 2025 were $34.1 billion, compared to $38.4 billion in Q2 2024 [27] Segment Performance - The Refining & Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA was $1.9 billion in Q2 2025, compared to $2.0 billion in Q2 2024, with a margin of $6.79 per barrel, down from $7.28 per barrel [5][29] - The Midstream segment adjusted EBITDA remained stable at $1.6 billion for both Q2 2025 and Q2 2024, driven by higher rates and throughputs [7] - The Renewable Diesel segment showed improvement with adjusted EBITDA of $(19) million in Q2 2025, an improvement from $(27) million in Q2 2024, attributed to increased utilization and higher margins [8] Operational Highlights - Refining capacity utilization was 97%, with total throughput of 3.1 million barrels per day in Q2 2025 [6] - Refining operating costs per barrel increased to $5.34 in Q2 2025 from $4.91 in Q2 2024 [6][29] - The company returned approximately $1.0 billion of capital to shareholders in Q2 2025, including $692 million in share repurchases [11][13] Strategic Developments - The company announced a $2.375 billion midstream acquisition in the Permian and a $425 million divestiture of its partial interest in ethanol production facilities [3][15] - Capital spending outlook for 2025 includes high-return investments at key refineries, with specific projects targeting returns of 20% to 25% [12][14] - MPLX's acquisition of Northwind Midstream is expected to close in Q3 2025, enhancing the company's midstream capabilities [16] Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, the company had $1.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with no borrowings under its $5 billion revolving credit facility [10] - Total consolidated debt was reported at $28.7 billion, with MPC debt at $7.4 billion [39]

Core Insights - Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is expected to report second-quarter earnings on August 5, with a consensus estimate of $3.22 per share and revenues of $30.91 billion [1] Group 1: Previous Quarter Performance - In the last reported quarter, MPC had an adjusted loss of 24 cents per share, which was better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 63 cents, driven by strong performance in the Refining & Marketing segment [2] - Revenues for the last quarter were $31.9 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.1 billion, although this represented a 4.1% year-over-year decline [2][3] Group 2: Earnings Estimate Trends - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second-quarter earnings has been revised downward by 5.8% in the past 60 days, indicating a 21.84% year-over-year decline [4] - The revenue estimate of $30.91 billion for Q2 suggests a 19.43% decrease compared to the same period last year [4][9] Group 3: Business Segments and Performance Drivers - MPC operates primarily through two segments: Refining & Marketing and Midstream, with the former focusing on refining crude oil and distributing refined products, while the latter involves transportation and storage of crude oil and refined products [5] - The midstream segment is expected to have benefited from increased pipeline throughput and steady fee-based tariff income, which may have offset the negative impact of lower crude oil prices [6] - Solid demand for refined products and LPG exports, driven by strengthened overseas markets, is likely to have supported sales volumes and overall revenue [7] Group 4: Challenges and Pressures - MPC is anticipated to face margin pressure due to elevated turnaround and maintenance costs, exacerbated by ongoing and unplanned repairs [8] - The Galveston Bay refinery outage is expected to negatively impact bottom-line results, contributing to operational disruptions and increased repair-related costs [8][10] Group 5: Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for MPC this season, as the Earnings ESP is -2.74% and the company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Marathon Petroleum (MPC) will report quarterly earnings of $3.22 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 21.8%, with anticipated revenues of $30.91 billion, a decrease of 19.4% compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 22.9% over the past 30 days, reflecting a collective reappraisal by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3] Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts predict 'Refining & Marketing - Refinery throughputs - Net refinery throughput' to reach 2,950.66 thousand barrels of oil per day, down from 3,065.00 thousand barrels per day in the same quarter last year [5] - The forecast for 'Refining & Marketing - Refinery throughputs - Crude oil refined' is 2,778.04 thousand barrels of oil per day, compared to 2,867.00 thousand barrels per day in the same quarter last year [6] - For 'Refining & Marketing - Refinery throughputs - Other charge and blendstocks', the expected throughput is 171.27 thousand barrels of oil per day, down from 198.00 thousand barrels per day in the same quarter last year [7] - Analysts expect 'Adjusted EBITDA- Refining & Marketing' to be $1.49 billion, compared to $1.97 billion from the previous year [7] - The projected 'Adjusted EBITDA- Midstream' is $1.67 billion, slightly up from $1.62 billion year-over-year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Marathon Petroleum shares have recorded a return of -2.1%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +2.7% [8] - Based on its Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), MPC is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the upcoming period [8]

Company Performance - Marathon Petroleum (MPC) shares decreased by 2.65% to $170.78, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.13% [1] - Prior to this trading session, shares had increased by 3.22%, lagging behind the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 4.18% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.39% [1] Earnings Projections - The company is expected to release earnings on August 5, 2025, with projected EPS of $3.22, reflecting a 21.84% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $30.91 billion, indicating a 19.43% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $8.03 per share and revenue of $124.6 billion, representing declines of 15.56% and 11.26% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates suggest a shifting business landscape, with positive adjustments indicating a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Marathon Petroleum's Forward P/E ratio is currently 21.85, which is a premium compared to the industry's Forward P/E of 17.43 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 3, while the average PEG ratio for the Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is 1.57 [6] Industry Ranking - The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 176, placing it in the bottom 29% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Refiners Investment Strategy - The company is increasing exposure to refiners due to a seasonally strong period and the outperformance of reformulated gasoline and heating oil relative to crude oil [1][2] - Investment is spread across three refiner names: Phillips (PSX), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Valero (VLOO) to avoid isolating risk to a single company [3] Market Performance - Crude oil is down 5% year-to-date, while reformulated gasoline and heating oil prices are higher [2] - Baker Hughes' target price was raised by Morgan Stanley by $10, from $45 to $55 [3] - Baker Hughes is up 11% year-to-date [3] Baker Hughes' Strategy - Baker Hughes made an acquisition with Chart Industries to increase exposure to data centers and LNG [4] - Baker Hughes is diversifying away from oil and moving towards electricity [4]

Core Viewpoint - Marathon Petroleum's stock performance has outpaced the broader market, with a recent gain of 6.03% compared to the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 3.19% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.88% [1][2] Financial Performance - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show an EPS of $3.18, reflecting a 22.82% decline year-over-year, with projected revenue of $30.91 billion, down 19.43% from the prior-year quarter [2] - For the entire year, earnings are forecasted at $7.08 per share and revenue at $124.6 billion, indicating declines of 25.55% and 11.26% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates are crucial as they reflect the shifting dynamics of the business [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates these estimate changes, currently ranks Marathon Petroleum at 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Marathon Petroleum has a Forward P/E ratio of 24.74, which is higher than the industry's Forward P/E of 17.68 [7] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 3.39, compared to the industry average of 1.64, indicating a premium valuation relative to expected earnings growth [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is currently ranked 198 out of over 250 industries, placing it in the bottom 20% [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank suggests that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Investment Returns - The total return on the Fund's net asset value for the first half of 2025 was 2.3%, with dividends and capital gains reinvested [1] - The S&P Energy Sector and the S&P 500 Materials Sector had returns of 0.8% and 6.0%, respectively, while the benchmark (S&P 500 Energy Sector 80% and S&P 500 Materials Sector 20%) returned 1.8% [1] - The total return on the Fund's market price for the same period was 3.1% [1] Annualized Comparative Returns - For the 1-year period, the Fund's net asset value (NAV) decreased by 2.2%, while the market price increased by 1.7% [4] - Over 3 years, the NAV returned 10.7% and the market price returned 12.3% [4] - The 5-year returns were 21.2% for NAV and 22.1% for market price, while the 10-year returns were 6.1% for NAV and 6.8% for market price [4] Net Asset Value - As of June 30, 2025, the Fund's net assets were $634.74 million, down from $689.99 million a year earlier [6] - The number of shares outstanding increased to 26,888,697 from 25,453,641 [6] - The net asset value per share decreased to $23.61 from $27.11 [6] Largest Equity Portfolio Holdings - The top ten equity holdings accounted for 62.9% of net assets, with Exxon Mobil Corporation at 22.7% and Chevron Corporation at 11.5% [7] - Other significant holdings included ConocoPhilips (5.3%), Linde plc (4.7%), and EOG Resources, Inc. (3.8%) [7] Industry Weightings - The Fund's net assets were allocated primarily to the energy sector, with Integrated Oil & Gas at 35.1% and Exploration & Production at 19.8% [9] - Other allocations included Storage & Transportation (11.6%), Chemicals (13.6%), and Metals & Mining (3.6%) [10]