Core Viewpoint - Moderna reported a significant decline in earnings and revenues for Q4 2024, primarily due to reduced sales of its COVID-19 vaccine and underperformance of its RSV vaccine [1][2]. Financial Performance - Adjusted loss was $2.50 per share compared to earnings of $0.55 in the same quarter last year [1]. - Revenues fell 64% year over year to $966 million, driven by declining sales of COVID-19 vaccines [1]. Revenue Guidance - Moderna reiterated its total revenue guidance for 2025, expecting revenues between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, mainly from COVID-19 and RSV vaccine sales [2]. - Management anticipates generating approximately $0.2 billion in revenues in the first half of 2025 due to seasonality [2]. Product Launch Plans - The company plans to launch 10 new products over the next three years and has made progress with three regulatory filings to the FDA in Q4 2024 [4]. - Key filings include mRNA-1283 (next-generation COVID-19 vaccine) and mRNA-1083 (COVID-19 and influenza combination vaccine), with decisions expected by May 31, 2025, and June 12, 2025, respectively [4][5]. Pipeline Development - Moderna has over 40 mRNA-based investigational candidates in various clinical stages, including vaccines for CMV and influenza [6][7]. - The mRNA-4157 candidate, developed in partnership with Merck, is undergoing pivotal late-stage studies for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer [8]. Competitive Landscape - Despite its mRNA technology advantages, Moderna faces competition from major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and GSK [11]. - The sales performance of the RSV vaccine mResvia has been disappointing, facing competition from GSK's Arexvy and Pfizer's Abrysvo [12]. Stock Performance and Valuation - MRNA stock has declined nearly 63% over the past year, underperforming the industry and broader market [13]. - The stock currently trades at a price/sales (P/S) ratio of 3.93, higher than the industry average of 2.16 [16]. Analyst Outlook - Short-term investors are advised to avoid the stock due to negative sentiment and reduced sales guidance [17]. - Long-term investors may find value in Moderna's product pipeline and mRNA technology, with improving estimates for losses per share for 2025 and 2026 [18][19].

Core Insights - Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) went public at $22 in 2018 and remained at this level until 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted its potential, leading to a significant price increase of 4,211% by 2021 from a low of $11.54 [1] Company Performance - The stock price of Moderna saw a dramatic rise during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating strong market interest and investor confidence in its vaccine development capabilities [1] Analyst Background - Yavuz Akbay, a quantitative analyst with over 5 years of experience, specializes in interpreting complex financial data and utilizing machine learning algorithms for financial analysis [1]

Core Insights - Moderna reported a loss of $2.50 per share in Q4 2024, which is an improvement compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $2.69 and a significant decline from earnings of 55 cents per share in the same period last year [1][2] - Total revenues for Q4 were $966 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $956 million, but reflecting a year-over-year decline of approximately 64.3% due to lower product sales [2][3] - The company's stock has decreased by 65% over the past year, contrasting with a 3.6% decline in the industry [2] Financial Performance - Product sales fell by 66.4% year-over-year to $938 million, primarily due to a significant drop in Spikevax sales [3][4] - Spikevax sales amounted to $923 million in Q4 2024, down from $2.8 billion in the previous year, attributed to the earlier launch of an updated COVID-19 vaccine [4] - Sales from the recently launched RSV vaccine, mResvia, were minimal at $15 million, with management expecting low sales in the quarter [5][9] - Total revenues for 2024 were $3.2 billion, marking a 52.9% decline year-over-year, with a reported loss of $9.28 per share, an improvement from a loss of $12.33 per share in the prior year [11] Future Guidance - For 2025, Moderna expects total revenues between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, primarily from COVID-19 and RSV vaccine sales, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.30 billion [12] - The company anticipates R&D expenses of around $4.1 billion and SG&A expenses of approximately $1.1 billion for 2025 [13] Pipeline Developments - Moderna submitted three regulatory filings to the FDA in Q4 2024, including for mRNA-1283 (next-generation COVID-19 vaccine) and mRNA-1083 (COVID-19 and influenza combination vaccine), with decisions expected in 2025 [14][15] - The company is also advancing over 40 mRNA-based investigational candidates, including those targeting cancer, with several in late-stage studies [17][18] - A registrational study for mRNA-3705, a therapeutic candidate for methylmalonic acidemia, is planned for later in 2025 [19]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company recorded total revenue of $3.2 billion, a 53% decline from 2023, primarily due to lower product sales [23][27] - The net loss for the year was $3.6 billion, compared to a loss of $4.7 billion in 2023, with a loss per share of $9.28 compared to $12.33 in the prior period [27] - Cash, cash equivalents, and investments totaled $9.5 billion at the end of the quarter, up from $9.2 billion at the end of the third quarter [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, net product sales were $0.9 billion, with $0.2 billion in the United States and $0.7 billion outside the United States [13] - Full-year net product sales were $3.1 billion, with U.S. sales at $1.7 billion, benefiting from a favorable adjustment related to a prior period return reserve reversal [13][14] - The majority of sales were from Spikevax, while mRESVIA generated only $25 million in sales for the full year [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International sales were lower year-over-year, reflecting the ongoing phase-out of advanced purchase agreements [16] - The company observed signs of stabilization in the COVID market, believing it will remain durable over time despite lower vaccination rates and increased competition [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a focus on 10 high-value programs expected to drive sales growth and diversification from COVID over the next three years [8] - The strategic resizing initiative launched in 2023 aims to optimize the manufacturing footprint and align with the transition to a seasonal endemic market [18] - The company plans to reduce cash costs to an estimated $5.5 billion in 2025 and $5 billion in 2026, aiming for breakeven on a cash-cost basis no later than 2028 [48][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the durability of the COVID market and the potential for growth from new product approvals [14][31] - The company anticipates total revenue in 2025 to be in the range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, reflecting uncertainties in vaccination rates and market competition [31] - Management emphasized the importance of cost management and operational efficiencies to position the company for long-term success [35] Other Important Information - The company reported a significant reduction in operating expenses in 2024, with costs declining from $11.1 billion to $7.2 billion [28] - R&D expenses for the year were $4.5 billion, down 6% from 2023, primarily due to lower clinical trial and manufacturing costs [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help us understand the breakdown of the R&D spend across your program? - Management indicated there is flexibility to reduce R&D spending further, with guidance of $4.1 billion for 2025 and potential reductions by 2027 [55] Question: What would it take for the FDA to remove the clinical hold on Norovirus? - Management stated that the FDA needs time to review submitted materials, and any decision will depend on their assessment [67] Question: Should we still expect the final readout for CMV in the first half of 2025? - Management confirmed that they still expect the final results for the CMV trial in 2025, although specific timing was not provided [66] Question: Can you clarify the approval requirements for the COVID-flu combo vaccine? - Management confirmed that efficacy for the COVID component has been demonstrated, but efficacy for the flu component is still required [88] Question: What variables would affect the 2025 revenue guidance? - Management noted that vaccination rates, market share, and competitive dynamics would influence whether they land at the low or high end of their guidance [133]

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Core Insights - Moderna reported a quarterly loss of $2.50 per share, which was better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $2.69, and a significant decline from earnings of $0.55 per share a year ago, indicating a 7.06% earnings surprise [1] - The company generated revenues of $966 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.04%, but down from $2.81 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Moderna has consistently exceeded consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of 101.59% in the previous quarter [2][1] Financial Performance - The stock has underperformed, losing approximately 23.2% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 4% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$2.85, with expected revenues of $234.83 million, and for the current fiscal year, the estimate is -$8.72 on $2.3 billion in revenues [7] Industry Outlook - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, to which Moderna belongs, is currently ranked in the top 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - The performance of Moderna's stock may be influenced by the overall industry outlook, as historical data shows that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8]

Core Insights - Moderna reported fourth-quarter revenue that exceeded estimates but experienced a larger-than-expected net loss, indicating ongoing challenges as the company adapts to declining demand for its Covid vaccine and seeks to launch new products [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted a net loss of $1.12 billion, or $2.91 per share, for Q4 2024, compared to a net income of $217 million, or 55 cents per share, in the same period last year [2] - Fourth-quarter sales were $966 million, significantly down from $2.8 billion in the prior year, with Covid vaccine sales contributing $923 million, a 66% decrease year-over-year [6][10] - The loss per share was higher than the expected loss of $2.68, while revenue slightly surpassed the expected $942.8 million [9] Cost Management - The company reduced costs by 27% compared to 2023 and aims to cut costs by an additional $1 billion by the end of 2025 [3] - Cost of sales for Q4 was $739 million, down 20% from the previous year, including $193 million in writedowns of unused Covid vaccine doses [12] Product Sales and Guidance - Moderna reiterated its full-year 2025 product sales guidance of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, with expectations of only $200 million in sales during the first half of the year due to seasonal demand [4] - The company previously slashed its 2025 sales guidance by approximately $1 billion, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [4] Market Challenges - The decline in Covid vaccine sales is attributed to increased competition, falling vaccination rates, and the timing of manufacturing contracts [5] - The company also reported $15 million in U.S. sales of its RSV vaccine, which is approved for seniors [8][10] Future Developments - Moderna submitted three mRNA products for regulatory approval during Q4, including a next-generation Covid shot and a combination shot targeting Covid and flu [11] - The company is developing additional products, including a standalone flu shot and a personalized cancer vaccine, with data readouts expected later this year [12]

Financial Performance - Moderna, Inc. generated $3.0-3.1 billion in product sales for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024[4] Cash and Investments - The company's cash, cash equivalents, and investments in marketable securities are approximately $9.5 billion as of December 31, 2024[4] Audit Status - The financial information provided is preliminary and unaudited, with ongoing audits that may result in changes[5]

Moderna, Inc. MRNA will release its fourth-quarter financial results, before the opening bell, on Friday, Feb. 14, 2025.Analysts expect the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company to report a quarterly loss at $2.68 per share, versus earnings of 55 cents per share in the year-ago period. Moderna projects quarterly revenue of $942.84 million, compared to $2.81 billion a year earlier, according to data from Benzinga Pro.The company has topped consensus estimates on the top and bottom lines for the last four co ...

Analysts on Wall Street project that Moderna (MRNA) will announce quarterly loss of $2.65 per share in its forthcoming report, representing a decline of 581.8% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $956.11 million, declining 66% from the same quarter last year.The current level reflects an upward revision of 7.2% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over thi ...