Moderna offered investors a glimpse at its upcoming earnings report as it pre-announced revenue above the midpoint of its prior guidance range. The stock fell anyway. ...

Core Insights - Moderna reiterates its expectations for revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026 [1] Company Summary - The company is projecting a revenue increase of up to 10% by the year 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moderna expects sales to reach approximately $1.9 billion in 2025, which is near the upper limit of its previous revenue forecast of $1.6 billion to $2 billion, but still significantly lower than revenue levels during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The CFO of Moderna, James Mock, stated that the vaccination rate in the U.S. retail channel is expected to decline by about 26% year-over-year in 2025, which is at the lower end of the company's forecast range of 20% to 40%, ultimately driving sales growth [1] - Moderna has lowered its expected operating expenses for 2025 by $200 million, adjusting the forecast range to $5 billion to $5.2 billion [1] - The company anticipates ending 2025 with cash reserves of $8.1 billion, up from a previous forecast of $6.5 billion to $7 billion, which includes $600 million from a $1.5 billion five-year loan obtained from Iris Management [1] Group 2: Future Growth and Product Pipeline - Moderna reiterated its revenue growth target of up to 10% for 2026 and expects to receive regulatory approval for two vaccines within the year: an independent flu vaccine and a combined COVID-flu vaccine [2] - If sales reach $1.9 billion in 2025, a 10% increase would project 2026 revenue at $2.1 billion, although formal guidance has not yet been provided [2] - The company expects that the flu vaccine and combined vaccine may not be approved before the peak respiratory disease season in 2026 but could boost revenue in 2027 [2] - In 2026, Moderna plans to obtain important clinical data for experimental vaccines in oncology, rare diseases, and infectious diseases, including late-stage results for a norovirus vaccine and mid-stage data for a cancer vaccine developed in collaboration with Merck for post-surgical melanoma patients [2] Group 3: Upcoming Financial Reports - Moderna plans to release its fourth-quarter and full-year financial report for 2025 on February 13 [3]

Group 1 - The company Moderna expects to generate approximately $1.9 billion in revenue by 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moderna expects to report approximately $1.9 billion in sales for 2025, which is near the upper end of its previously projected range of $1.6 billion to $2 billion, but significantly lower than revenue levels achieved during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Financial Projections - The projected sales for 2025 are positioned at $1.9 billion, indicating a strong outlook within the previously set forecast range [1] - The anticipated revenue remains well below the peak levels experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [1]

Revenue Expectations - Moderna expects approximately $1.9 billion in revenue for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025[4] Operating Expenses - The company anticipates GAAP operating expenses of $5.0 - $5.2 billion for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025[4] Financial Position - Moderna's expected cash, cash equivalents, and investments in marketable securities as of December 31, 2025, is approximately $8.1 billion[4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the pharmaceutical sector, with the overall performance of the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increasing by 7.8% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 3.82% [2][3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's overall valuation stands at 30.6 times earnings, ranking 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [5]. - The report highlights significant developments in the long-term care insurance system transitioning from pilot programs to full establishment during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with coverage reaching nearly 300 million people and fund expenditures exceeding 100 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [11]. - Notable advancements in drug commercialization include the launch of Novo Nordisk's oral GLP-1 weight loss drug Wegovy in the U.S., with monthly costs ranging from $149 to $299 for self-paying patients [13][14]. - Moderna has submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for its seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010, showing promising efficacy results in clinical trials [15]. - Arrowhead has reported positive mid-stage results for its RNAi therapies ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7, demonstrating significant reductions in visceral and liver fat [16][17]. - GSK's hepatitis B drug Bepirovirsen has shown statistically significant functional cure rates in its Phase III trials [18]. - Recent approvals for innovative drugs in China include BeiGene's BCL-2 inhibitor and Sanofi's APOC3 siRNA drug, which addresses familial chylomicronemia syndrome [19][21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increased by 7.8%, ranking 6th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][3]. - Various sub-sectors showed positive growth, with medical devices and medical outsourcing leading with increases of 10.8% and 11.1%, respectively [5]. Industry Dynamics - The long-term care insurance system is set to expand significantly, with a focus on providing care for the elderly and disabled [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in drug development, particularly in RNAi therapies and small nucleic acid drugs, which are gaining traction in clinical settings [16][18]. Company Developments - Significant partnerships and collaborations are highlighted, such as the $8.88 billion research collaboration between Insilico Medicine and Servier focusing on oncology [20]. - The report notes the successful commercialization of several new drugs, including BeiGene's and Sanofi's recent approvals, which are expected to impact market dynamics positively [19][21]. - The establishment of new companies and subsidiaries, such as the brain-computer interface subsidiary by Xinwei Medical, indicates a strategic shift towards innovative technologies in healthcare [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating based on recent market performance and emerging opportunities in innovative drug development [2][3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector saw a significant increase, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index rising by 7.8%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 3.82% [2][3]. - The report highlights the ongoing commercialization of innovative drugs, including the oral GLP-1 medication Wegovy by Novo Nordisk, and the successful clinical trials of various RNAi therapies [11][13][18]. - The establishment of a comprehensive long-term care insurance system in China is expected to enhance the healthcare landscape, potentially benefiting the pharmaceutical sector [11][12]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index ranked 6th among 31 Shenwan first-level sub-industries, with various sub-sectors showing positive growth, such as medical devices (+10.8%) and medical research outsourcing (+11.1%) [2][5]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector stands at 30.6 times earnings, ranking 10th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [5][10]. Recent Key Events - The report notes the successful approval and commercialization of several new drugs, including BeiGene's BCL-2 inhibitor and Sanofi's APOC3 siRNA drug, which address significant medical needs [20][22]. - Collaborations in drug development are highlighted, such as the $8.88 billion partnership between Insilico Medicine and Servier focusing on oncology [21]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the brain-computer interface industry, with companies like Mindray Medical and Lepu Medical making strides in this area [24]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on domestic innovative drug companies and CROs, particularly those involved in the development of small nucleic acid drugs and brain-computer interface technologies [2][11]. - Specific companies to watch include Tigermed, WuXi AppTec, and Innovent Biologics, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery of the innovative drug sector [2][11].

Group 1 - UBS has lowered Moderna's target price from $40 to $34, indicating a decrease in expected valuation [1] - The rating for Moderna has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral," reflecting a more cautious outlook on the company's performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bayer and its Monsanto division are suing COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers, claiming they used patented technology developed by Monsanto in the 1980s without permission [1][3]. Group 1: Lawsuits and Allegations - Bayer alleges that Pfizer, BioNTech, and Moderna improperly utilized technology that Monsanto developed to make plants resistant to insects, which was incorporated into their vaccines to enhance mRNA stability and immunity [3]. - The lawsuits were filed on January 6 in a U.S. court in Delaware, seeking damages for patent infringement [3]. - Bayer is not seeking to halt vaccine production but is requesting monetary compensation for the alleged infringement, stating that the defendants have profited significantly from vaccine sales [4]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Pfizer reported earnings of $11.2 billion in 2023 from its COVID-19 vaccine, highlighting the substantial financial gains made by vaccine manufacturers during the pandemic [5]. - BioNTech acknowledged the lawsuit but declined to comment further, while Moderna stated it would defend against the claims [5][6]. Group 3: Additional Legal Actions - Bayer has also filed a separate lawsuit against Johnson & Johnson, claiming infringement related to its COVID-19 vaccine, which utilized DNA delivery rather than mRNA [6]. - The complaint against Johnson & Johnson asserts that its vaccine's effectiveness relied on the patented technology developed by Bayer [7]. - A previous ruling in England found that Pfizer infringed on a Moderna patent, indicating ongoing legal disputes within the vaccine industry [8].