格隆汇9月19日｜三菱日联首席分析师Shinichiro Kobayashi表示，"在美国经济放缓且（美联储）可能进 一步降息的前景下，日本央行反其行之并加息的难度可能越来越大。在执政党党魁竞选之后，日本下一 任首相对货币政策的立场也将受到密切关注。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Tata Motors Ltd is syndicating a €3.875 billion ($4.5 billion) bridge loan to fund its proposed acquisition of Iveco Group’s commercial vehicle business, according to people familiar with the matter, in what would be one of the largest such deals in Asia this year.The 12-month borrowing facility carries a letter of support from Tata Sons Pvt, an investment holding arm of Tata Group, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private matters. The loan pays a blended interest margin of 102.5 basi ...

Core Insights - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) has closed a $75 million senior secured revolving credit facility for EarnIn, aimed at supporting the company's growth and expansion into innovative products like Live Pay [1][2] - The facility is designed to provide scalable and cost-effective capital to meet the increasing demand for streaming pay, enhancing EarnIn's ability to offer real-time access to earnings [2] Company Overview - EarnIn is a financial technology company focused on creating a more equitable financial system, offering services such as on-demand earnings, early paycheck access, and credit-building tools without interest or hidden fees [5] - The company allows workers to stream their earnings in real time, access paychecks up to two days early, and withdraw a portion of their earned wages before payday [6] MUFG Overview - MUFG is one of the largest global financial groups, with a history spanning over 360 years and a presence in more than 50 countries [3] - The group offers a wide range of financial services, including commercial banking, asset management, and securities, and aims to be the world's most trusted financial group [3][4]

Group 1 - JPMorgan and MUFG are leading a loan exceeding $22 billion to support Vantage's plan for a large data center campus [1] - The total loan amount is approximately $23 billion, but the final scale is yet to be determined as project costs are still being calculated [1] - Other banks involved in underwriting this infrastructure loan include BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, and Wells Fargo [1] Group 2 - Silver Lake Management and DigitalBridge Group Inc. have also committed to invest $3 billion in the project [1]

Group 1 - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. increased its stake in Beijing Capital International Airport (00694) by purchasing 372,000 shares at a price of approximately 3.0304 HKD per share, totaling around 1.1273 million HKD [1] - Following the acquisition, Mitsubishi UFJ's total shareholding in Beijing Capital International Airport reached approximately 169 million shares, representing a 9% ownership stake [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market is experiencing significant inflows of overseas capital, driven by positive economic indicators and corporate performance, leading to record highs in the Nikkei index [2][5][7]. Economic Performance - The GDP growth for Japan in the April to June quarter of 2025 was reported at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0%, marking five consecutive quarters of positive growth [2]. - The economic surprise index for Japan stands at 26.7, significantly higher than the global average of 12.0, indicating a robust recovery trend [5][6]. Market Trends - The Nikkei index closed at 43,378 points on August 15, 2023, up 729 points (1.71%) from the previous trading day, reflecting renewed investor confidence [2]. - The banking sector saw a notable increase, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group reaching new highs, and the banking industry index rising by 3.14% [5]. Investor Sentiment - There is a growing interest from overseas investors, particularly from Europe, in the Japanese stock market, driven by structural economic factors and the potential for stable returns [6]. - Short-term speculative funds are also increasing their positions in the Japanese market, with expectations that the Nikkei index could reach around 44,000 points in the near term [7]. Corporate Earnings Outlook - Despite a projected 8.6% decrease in regular profits for major companies in the fiscal year 2025, a rebound of 13.0% is expected in fiscal year 2026, indicating a shift in investor focus towards future earnings [5].

高盛：美国企业业绩敏感度增强，关税影响温和 标普全球：美国通胀压力或加剧，CPI数据将验证7月价格走势 高盛交易员表示，标普500指数成分股在财报日的实际波动首次超过期权市场的隐含波动率，表明市场 对企业业绩反应更加敏感和剧烈。"特朗普关税"对通胀有显著影响，但剔除关税后，美国经济本身的通 胀动能温和。当前市场焦点在于就业、消费数据以及美联储降息步伐。 三菱日联金融集团外汇策略师表示，预计新兴亚洲货币将受益于下半年美元疲软。尤其是那些国内市场 驱动、收益率相对较高的经济体，可能更有机会从美元疲软中获益。 高盛研究显示，截至目前，美国企业已承担了唐纳德·特朗普关税的大部分成本，约占比64%；美国消 费者承担了约22%，外国出口商则承担了约14%。若近期加征的关税延续以往的转嫁模式，消费者承担 的成本比例将大幅上升至67%，而企业承担的比例将骤降至10%以下，外国出口商的负担则可能上升至 25%。随着关税成本逐步向消费者转嫁，美国通胀压力将回升。该行预计，到2025年12月，核心PCE （个人消费支出）物价指数同比将升至3.2%，高于当前水平。 三菱日联金融集团分析指出，如果美国的关税言论落实为长期50%的制裁措 ...

Core Viewpoint - MUFG reports that the significant underperformance of U.S. non-farm employment data in July has led to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [1][4] Group 1: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The July non-farm employment report showed only 73,000 jobs added, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs, marking a historic downward revision of 90% [4] - The ISM manufacturing index's employment component fell to 43.4, indicating weakened labor demand, while the ISM price component dropped from 69.7 to 64.8, suggesting no significant inflationary pressure [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The interest rate futures market is pricing in approximately 64 basis points of easing by the end of 2025, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September [1][5] - There is a growing expectation for at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, with traders increasingly betting on consecutive cuts in September and October [1][5] Group 3: Impact on Financial Markets - Gold prices have rebounded from around $3,270 to nearly $3,400 since the end of July, driven by rate cut expectations [5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8% on a single day, with the dollar depreciating against the yen by 2.2%, marking the largest drop since April [5] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, with the 2-year Treasury yield dropping over 25 basis points, the largest decline since December 2023, indicating a bullish sentiment in the bond market [6] Group 4: Political Influences on Monetary Policy - Political dynamics in the U.S. are shifting towards supporting rate cut expectations, with President Trump exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve and calling for the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief [7] - The extreme weakness in the July employment report supports the argument for a rate cut, with some Federal Reserve officials advocating for immediate action [7]

Group 1 - The CEO of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) expressed views on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike timing, suggesting a possible adjustment in March next year, but also indicating a high likelihood of a hike in September or October this year [1] - MUFG reported a 1.8% year-on-year decline in net income for the first quarter of the fiscal year, amounting to 546.1 billion yen, while basic earnings per share remained stable at 47.55 yen, slightly exceeding analyst expectations [1] - The group aims for a record annual profit target of 2 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD), attributing this to rising interest rates, yen depreciation, and the sale of client company shares [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% while raising inflation forecasts for the next three years, with 42% of surveyed economists expecting a rate hike in October [2] - Continuous wage growth is a key consideration for the Bank of Japan's decisions, with expectations that companies may continue to raise salaries to address labor shortages [5] - MUFG's stock price has increased by approximately 11% this year, following a trend of over 35% annual growth in the previous four years [5] Group 3 - The group aims for a long-term return on equity target of 12%, with recent figures around 10%, and needs to generate an additional 1.2 trillion yen in net operating profit to support a 2% increase in return rates [5] - MUFG is considering expanding its securitization business and taking on more risk in project financing to drive business growth [5]

[Consolidated Summary Report (Japanese GAAP)](index=4&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Summary%20Report) [Consolidated Financial Data and Earnings Target](index=4&type=section&id=1.%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Data%20for%20the%20Three%20Months%20ended%20June%2030%2C%202025) MUFG's Q1 FY2025 financial data reflects slight profit and asset declines, alongside maintained earnings targets and increased dividend forecasts [Results of Operations](index=4&type=section&id=1.%20%281%29%20Results%20of%20Operations) Q1 FY2025 saw Ordinary Income, Ordinary Profits, and Profits Attributable to Owners of Parent decline, with basic EPS stable Q1 FY2025 Results of Operations (vs. Q1 FY2024) (Millions of Yen) | Metric | Q1 FY2025 (ended Jun 30, 2025) | Q1 FY2024 (ended Jun 30, 2024) | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ordinary Income | ¥3,253,932 | ¥3,525,017 | (7.7)% | | Ordinary Profits | ¥708,535 | ¥733,359 | (3.4)% | | Profits Attributable to Owners of Parent | ¥546,068 | ¥555,894 | (1.8)% | | Comprehensive Income | ¥135,586 | ¥992,877 | (86.3)% | | Basic Earnings Per Share | ¥47.55 | ¥47.50 | +0.1% | | Diluted Earnings Per Share | ¥47.45 | ¥47.40 | +0.1% | [Financial Conditions](index=4&type=section&id=1.%20%282%29%20Financial%20Conditions) As of June 30, 2025, MUFG's total assets and net assets decreased, while the equity-to-asset ratio remained unchanged Financial Condition as of June 30, 2025 (Millions of Yen) | Metric | As of June 30, 2025 | As of March 31, 2025 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Assets | ¥401,041,048 | ¥413,113,501 | | Total Net Assets | ¥21,256,938 | ¥21,728,132 | | Equity-to-asset ratio | 5.0% | 5.0% | | Shareholders' equity | ¥20,018,546 | ¥20,520,374 | [Dividends](index=5&type=section&id=2.%20Dividends%20on%20Common%20Stock) MUFG forecasts a total annual dividend of ¥70.00 per share for FY2026, up from ¥64.00 in the previous year Dividend per Share Forecast (Yen) | Fiscal Year | Interim (2nd Qtr-end) | Year-end | Total | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ended Mar 31, 2025 | ¥25.00 | ¥39.00 | ¥64.00 | | Ending Mar 31, 2026 (Forecast) | ¥35.00 | ¥35.00 | ¥70.00 | [Earnings Target](index=5&type=section&id=3.%20Earnings%20Target%20for%20the%20Fiscal%20Year%20ending%20March%2031%2C%202026%20%28Consolidated%29) MUFG maintained its ¥2.0 trillion earnings target for profits attributable to owners of parent for FY2026 - MUFG's earnings target for FY2026 is **¥2.0 trillion** of profits attributable to owners of parent[13](index=13&type=chunk) - Due to various uncertainties in the financial services business, MUFG discloses an earnings target instead of a specific performance forecast[13](index=13&type=chunk) [Consolidated Financial Statements and Notes](index=9&type=section&id=2.%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements%20and%20Notes) Consolidated financial statements show decreased assets and comprehensive income, mixed income statement results, and varied segment performance [Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=9&type=section&id=%281%29%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of June 30, 2025, total assets decreased by ¥12 trillion to ¥401.0 trillion, with total liabilities also declining Key Balance Sheet Items (Millions of Yen) | Account | As of June 30, 2025 | As of March 31, 2025 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Assets** | | | | Cash and due from banks | ¥105,201,744 | ¥109,095,437 | | Securities | ¥80,709,711 | ¥86,125,371 | | Loans and bills discounted | ¥122,671,835 | ¥121,436,133 | | **Total Assets** | **¥401,041,048** | **¥413,113,501** | | **Liabilities** | | | | Deposits | ¥224,705,991 | ¥228,512,749 | | Payables under repurchase agreements | ¥36,731,293 | ¥43,359,076 | | **Total Liabilities** | **¥379,784,109** | **¥391,385,368** | | **Total Net Assets** | **¥21,256,938** | **¥21,728,132** | [Consolidated Statements of Income and Comprehensive Income](index=11&type=section&id=%282%29%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Income%20and%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Comprehensive%20Income) Q1 FY2025 Ordinary Income fell to ¥3.3 trillion, profits stabilized by lower expenses, but Comprehensive Income plummeted to ¥135.6 billion due to FX Consolidated Income Statement Highlights (Millions of Yen) | Metric | Q1 FY2025 (ended Jun 30, 2025) | Q1 FY2024 (ended Jun 30, 2024) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ordinary income | ¥3,253,932 | ¥3,525,017 | | Interest income | ¥2,022,572 | ¥2,353,006 | | Ordinary expenses | ¥2,545,396 | ¥2,791,657 | | Interest expenses | ¥1,331,819 | ¥1,529,894 | | General and administrative expenses | ¥796,719 | ¥844,873 | | Ordinary profits | ¥708,535 | ¥733,359 | | Profits attributable to owners of parent | ¥546,068 | ¥555,894 | - Comprehensive income fell sharply to **¥135.6 billion**, primarily due to a **¥279.3 billion** negative foreign currency translation adjustment, compared to a **¥471.7 billion** positive adjustment in the prior-year period[24](index=24&type=chunk) [Changes in Accounting Estimates](index=13&type=section&id=%284%29%20Changes%20in%20accounting%20estimates) A new credit rating system was adopted for credit loss allowance calculation, with an immaterial impact on Q1 FY2025 financial statements - A new credit rating system was adopted to enhance credit risk management and calculate the allowance for credit losses[27](index=27&type=chunk) - The impact of this change in accounting estimates on the financial statements for the three months ended June 30, 2025, is reported as immaterial[27](index=27&type=chunk) [Segment Information](index=14&type=section&id=%285%29%20Segment%20Information) Q1 FY2025 total operating profit was ¥542.2 billion, down from ¥685.5 billion, with varied segment performance across business groups Operating Profit (Loss) by Segment (Millions of Yen) | Reporting Segment | Q1 FY2025 (ended Jun 30, 2025) | Q1 FY2024 (ended Jun 30, 2024) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Retail & Digital Business Group | ¥64,219 | ¥58,146 | | Commercial Banking & Wealth Management | ¥85,611 | ¥55,394 | | Japanese Corporate & Investment Banking | ¥147,149 | ¥162,687 | | Global Commercial Banking | ¥87,106 | ¥179,573 | | Global Corporate & Investment Banking | ¥36,901 | ¥33,039 | | Global Markets Business Group | ¥83,806 | ¥127,471 | | **Total Operating Profit** | **¥542,247** | **¥685,474** | - The method for calculating operating profit for each segment was changed in the first quarter of FY2025, and the prior year's data has been restated accordingly[31](index=31&type=chunk)[32](index=32&type=chunk) [Additional Information on Allowance for Credit Losses](index=16&type=section&id=%289%29%20Additional%20Information) Allowance for credit losses calculation relies on significant estimates and forward-looking adjustments, totaling **¥39.2 billion** as of June 30, 2025 - The calculation of allowance for credit losses relies on estimates of borrower ratings, collateral values, and future cash flows, which are subject to uncertainty[40](index=40&type=chunk)[41](index=41&type=chunk) - Adjustments are made to historical loss rates to account for future projections, especially considering the uncertain business environment from geopolitical situations (Russia-Ukraine) and trade policies[44](index=44&type=chunk)[47](index=47&type=chunk) - The impact from these forward-looking adjustments was **¥39.2 billion** as of June 30, 2025, up from **¥33.6 billion** as of March 31, 2025[44](index=44&type=chunk) [Supplemental Information: Selected Financial Information](index=18&type=section&id=Selected%20Financial%20Information%20under%20Japanese%20GAAP) [Financial Results by Entity](index=20&type=section&id=1.%20Financial%20Results) MUFG's consolidated gross profits decreased to ¥1,358.4 billion, with varied financial results across its main banking entities [MUFG Consolidated](index=20&type=section&id=MUFG%20Consolidated) MUFG's Q1 FY2025 consolidated gross profits decreased to ¥1,358.4 billion, with profits attributable to owners of parent declining to ¥546.1 billion MUFG Consolidated Financial Results (Millions of Yen) | Metric | Q1 FY2025 (ended Jun 30, 2025) | Q1 FY2024 (ended Jun 30, 2024) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Gross profits | ¥1,358,416 | ¥1,535,602 | | Net interest income | ¥690,788 | ¥823,128 | | General and administrative expenses | ¥815,428 | ¥857,451 | | Ordinary profits | ¥708,535 | ¥733,359 | | Profits attributable to owners of parent | ¥546,068 | ¥555,894 | [BK and TB Combined](index=21&type=section&id=BK%20and%20TB%20Combined) BK and TB combined gross profits decreased to ¥767.8 billion, with net operating profits and net income also declining BK and TB Combined Financial Results (Millions of Yen) | Metric | Q1 FY2025 (ended Jun 30, 2025) | Q1 FY2024 (ended Jun 30, 2024) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Gross profits | ¥767,758 | ¥833,219 | | Net operating profits | ¥352,841 | ¥398,712 | | Net income | ¥351,694 | ¥361,233 | [BK Non-consolidated](index=22&type=section&id=BK%20Non-consolidated) BK non-consolidated gross profit decreased to ¥680.2 billion, but net income increased to ¥315.0 billion due to higher non-recurring gains BK Non-consolidated Financial Results (Millions of Yen) | Metric | Q1 FY2025 (ended Jun 30, 2025) | Q1 FY2024 (ended Jun 30, 2024) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Gross profits | ¥680,188 | ¥706,691 | | Net operating profits | ¥320,101 | ¥325,225 | | Net income | ¥314,972 | ¥282,697 | [TB Non-consolidated](index=23&type=section&id=TB%20Non-consolidated) TB non-consolidated gross profits fell to ¥87.6 billion, with net income decreasing to ¥36.7 billion due to lower interest and other operating profits TB Non-consolidated Financial Results (Millions of Yen) | Metric | Q1 FY2025 (ended Jun 30, 2025) | Q1 FY2024 (ended Jun 30, 2024) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Gross profits | ¥87,569 | ¥126,527 | | Net operating profits | ¥32,740 | ¥73,487 | | Net income | ¥36,721 | ¥78,536 | [Asset Quality](index=24&type=section&id=2.%20Loans%20to%20Be%20Disclosed%20under%20the%20Banking%20Act%20and%20the%20Financial%20Reconstruction%20Act%20%28the%20FRA%29) MUFG's consolidated NPLs under FRA totaled ¥1,458.3 billion as of June 30, 2025, with the NPL ratio improving to 1.05% Non-Performing Loans (NPL) under FRA (Millions of Yen) | Entity | Total NPLs (Jun 30, 2025) | NPL Ratio (Jun 30, 2025) | NPL Ratio (Mar 31, 2025) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | MUFG Consolidated | ¥1,458,303 | 1.05% | 1.11% | | BK and TB Combined | ¥789,936 | 0.63% | 0.70% | | BK Non-consolidated | ¥788,762 | 0.65% | 0.72% | | TB Non-consolidated | ¥1,174 | 0.04% | 0.04% | [Securities Portfolio](index=25&type=section&id=3.%20Securities) MUFG's securities portfolio shows increased unrealized gains on available-for-sale securities and improved unrealized losses on held-to-maturity debt MUFG Consolidated Securities Portfolio (Millions of Yen) | Category | Balance Sheet Amount (Jun 30, 2025) | Unrealized Gains/(Losses) (Jun 30, 2025) | Unrealized Gains/(Losses) (Mar 31, 2025) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Debt securities held to maturity | ¥24,030,408 | (¥541,239) | (¥625,190) | | Available-for-sale securities | ¥55,146,618 | ¥2,322,186 | ¥2,203,663 | | - Domestic equity securities | ¥3,610,164 | ¥2,548,736 | ¥2,458,566 | | - Domestic bonds | ¥17,262,785 | (¥232,264) | (¥249,533) | | - Foreign bonds | ¥24,374,688 | (¥73,312) | (¥113,323) | [Key Performance Indicators](index=28&type=section&id=4.%20ROE) MUFG's Q1 FY2025 consolidated ROE slightly decreased to 10.78%, while the domestic interest rate spread for combined banking units widened [Return on Equity (ROE)](index=28&type=section&id=4.%20ROE) MUFG's Q1 FY2025 consolidated ROE (JPX basis) was 10.78%, a slight decrease from 11.18% in the prior year MUFG Consolidated ROE (JPX basis) (%) | Period | ROE (%) | | :--- | :--- | | Three months ended June 30, 2025 | 10.78 | | Three months ended June 30, 2024 | 11.18 | [Average Interest Rate Spread](index=29&type=section&id=5.%20Average%20Interest%20Rate%20Spread) The domestic interest rate spread for BK and TB combined increased to 0.89% in Q1 FY2025, driven by higher average loan rates BK and TB Combined Domestic Interest Rate Spread (%) | Metric | Q1 FY2025 (ended Jun 30, 2025) | Q1 FY2024 (ended Jun 30, 2024) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Avg. interest rate on loans | 1.06% | 0.82% | | Avg. interest rate on deposits | 0.17% | 0.01% | | **Interest rate spread** | **0.89%** | **0.80%** | [Loans and Deposits Breakdown](index=30&type=section&id=6.%20Loans%20and%20Deposits) For BK and TB combined, loans increased to ¥111.5 trillion, while deposits decreased to ¥212.4 trillion as of June 30, 2025 BK and TB Combined Loans and Deposits (Millions of Yen) | Metric | As of June 30, 2025 | As of March 31, 2025 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Deposits (ending balance) | ¥212,429,174 | ¥215,970,679 | | Loans (ending balance) | ¥111,456,580 | ¥110,082,264 | [Trust Assets and Liabilities (TB Non-consolidated)](index=31&type=section&id=7.%20Statements%20of%20Trust%20Assets%20and%20Liabilities) TB non-consolidated total trust assets increased slightly to ¥342.5 trillion, with beneficiary rights and investment trusts as key components TB Non-consolidated Trust Assets and Liabilities (Millions of Yen) | Account | As of June 30, 2025 | As of March 31, 2025 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Assets** | **¥342,490,703** | **¥341,910,148** | | - Securities | ¥82,165,586 | ¥82,297,398 | | - Beneficiary rights to the trust | ¥171,636,024 | ¥171,790,489 | | **Total Liabilities** | **¥342,490,703** | **¥341,910,148** | | - Money trusts | ¥36,268,216 | ¥39,222,424 | | - Investment trusts | ¥170,332,783 | ¥170,479,519 |