Core Viewpoint - Japanese financial institutions are revising their forecasts for the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar, expecting it to depreciate to a range of 149 to 156 yen by the end of the year due to fading expectations of early interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and concerns over Prime Minister Kishida's expansionary fiscal policies [2][6]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Predictions - Morgan Stanley has significantly lowered its forecast for the yen, predicting it will depreciate to 156 yen by the end of 2025, down from a previous estimate of 142 yen [6][7]. - Other banks, including Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui, have also adjusted their predictions, indicating a general consensus on the yen's depreciation [7]. - The yen depreciated over 4% in October, with a notable drop of more than 7 yen, reaching around 154.5 yen per dollar in early November, marking its lowest point since February [4][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate during the monetary policy meeting on October 30, with Governor Ueda expressing caution regarding future rate hikes [6][8]. - Market sentiment reflects a growing awareness of potential currency intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan, as the nominal effective exchange rate index for the yen hit a low of 71.4 on October 31 [11]. - Analysts express skepticism about the immediate prospects for yen appreciation, citing a lack of clear support for early rate hikes and the potential for further yen selling pressure due to the government's fiscal policies [8][9]. Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - Concerns over Prime Minister Kishida's "responsible active fiscal" policies are prevalent, with plans for a supplementary budget expected to exceed the previous year's budget, raising fears of increased yen selling pressure [8][9]. - The market is reacting to the government's perceived tolerance for yen depreciation, with some analysts predicting a reversal in the yen's trend as stock market adjustments occur [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the labor market and the potential downward pressure on the U.S. dollar as economic data resumes publication, highlighting structural weaknesses in the labor market [5][6][7]. Labor Market Analysis - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of structural weakness, with a lack of employment data allowing investors to overlook potential trends related to hiring slowdowns [5][6]. - A recent non-farm payroll report indicated a significant cooling in job growth, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021 [6][7]. - Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that U.S. companies announced the highest number of layoffs for October in over two decades, indicating weak consumer spending [7]. Dollar Performance and Predictions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index experienced its largest decline since mid-October, with a year-to-date drop of 6.8% [6]. - Analysts predict a potential sell-off of the dollar once new labor market data is released, which is expected to show further weakness [6][7]. - The euro is anticipated to strengthen against the dollar, with predictions suggesting it could reach 1.20 by year-end, a level not seen in over four years [7][8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment around the dollar is shifting, with Morgan Stanley changing its stance from bearish to neutral, contingent on significant changes in U.S. interest rate outlook [8][9]. - The article notes that the end of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and a potential discussion of rate hikes could halt the erosion of the dollar's interest rate advantage [9].

Core Viewpoint - A climate finance platform co-founded by MUFG, Japan's largest financial group, has successfully raised an initial $600 million to assist developing countries in adapting to climate change impacts [1] Group 1 - The platform aims to provide financial support specifically for countries in developing markets [1] - The funding will be utilized to address the challenges posed by climate change, enhancing resilience and adaptation efforts [1] - MUFG's involvement highlights the increasing role of financial institutions in climate finance initiatives [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rebound of the US dollar is unlikely to be sustained after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell weakened market expectations for further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Analyst Lee Hardman from MUFG suggests that the market's anticipation for additional rate cuts has diminished [1] - The comments from Powell have led to a shift in market sentiment regarding the future of the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with market participants uncertain about future rate cuts, particularly in 2026, amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates that the Eurozone is regaining growth momentum, with a notable improvement in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reaching a 17-month high of 52.2, despite concerns over political instability in France and weaker data from Germany [3][10]. - The inflation rate is hovering near the ECB's target, and the current interest rates are considered to be on a neutral trajectory, which has alleviated concerns regarding a downturn in Eurozone economic activity [3]. Market Expectations - The probability of the ECB restarting a rate cut cycle in 2026 has decreased to slightly below 50%, as traders reassess their positions following recent economic developments and statements from President Trump regarding trade agreements with China [2]. - MUFG's economist Cook maintains a forecast for further monetary easing by the ECB in 2026, citing potential fiscal stimulus from Germany and ongoing global trade uncertainties as factors that could keep inflation below the ECB's target [2][10]. Future Outlook - The ECB's upcoming meeting is anticipated to be a "low-key monetary policy meeting," focusing on inflation risk assessments and the implications of forthcoming economic data releases, including the preliminary GDP figures for Q3 and inflation data for Germany and the Eurozone [3]. - Cook predicts that the ECB may consider reinitiating rate cuts if inflation remains below the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of weakness, particularly in the context of a stronger Euro impacting import prices [10].

Company Overview - Keppel Ltd has acquired Shell Plc's 49% stake in Cleantech Solar, valuing the equity at approximately $200 million, thus taking full control of the company [1][4] - Keppel previously owned a 51% stake in Cleantech, having acquired it for $150 million in 2021 [2] Cleantech Solar's Portfolio - Cleantech Solar has a portfolio of 1.2 GW of solar and wind assets across several countries, with 1 GW currently operational [3] Strategic Moves by Shell - Shell's decision to sell its stake aligns with its strategy to focus on performance and simplification [4] - The sale of Cleantech is part of Shell's broader strategy, which includes plans to divest from other energy assets, such as the Sprng Energy group, valued at $1.55 billion [6] Market Trends in Green Energy - There is increasing interest in the green energy sector in India, particularly in the commercial and industrial segment, which constitutes 45-50% of the country's electricity demand [8][9] - The Indian government aims for a 20% renewable energy penetration over the next five years, necessitating a significant increase in renewable energy capacity [9][11] Investment Landscape - The regulatory environment in India is favorable for large power users, allowing them to source energy from the open market, which has attracted strong investor interest [10] - India plans to add 50 GW of green energy capacity annually to reach 500 GW by 2030, with a long-term goal of 1,800 GW by 2047 and 5,000 GW by 2070 [11]

Core Insights - Global equity markets experienced broad positive returns in Q3 2025, driven by resilient corporate earnings, enthusiasm for AI, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of the year [3][21] - Emerging markets, particularly China, led the gains, supported by a U.S. trade truce and strength in the tech sector [3][4] - The Polaris Global Equity Composite gained 5.04% (net of fees) for the quarter, underperforming the MSCI World Index, which returned 7.36% [5][6] Market Performance - Developed markets saw weaker currencies benefiting export-oriented indices, with Japan's TOPIX Index up 11.0% and the U.K.'s FTSE All-Share Index up 6.9% [4] - The U.S. market, represented by the S&P 500 Index, gained over 8%, primarily due to tech and communication stocks [4] - France and Germany underperformed due to geopolitical and fiscal concerns, with tepid growth projections under new U.S. trade policy [4] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector was the best performer, with notable gains from pharmaceutical stocks, while financials, consumer discretionary, and IT also contributed positively [5][6] - Health insurers faced challenges, with UnitedHealth Group and CVS Health posting over 10% returns, while Elevance Health's shares dropped sharply due to profit guidance cuts [7] - In IT, Samsung Electronics excelled with strong performance in HBM technology and a significant deal with Tesla for AI chip manufacturing [11] Company Highlights - United Therapeutics Corp. was a top contributor to portfolio performance, driven by positive clinical trial results for its drug Tyvaso, potentially adding $4-5 billion in peak sales [6] - AbbVie, Inc. expects high single-digit revenue growth through 2029, with flagship drugs projected to exceed $31 billion in sales by 2027 [6] - The Carlyle Group Inc. outperformed in the financial sector, up over 20% due to strong fee-based credit and secondaries business [8] Investment Strategy - The current economic environment is characterized by a "two-speed" economy, with a concentrated AI-driven boom amidst subdued growth in other sectors [21][22] - Financials are seen as attractive due to stable net interest margins and loan growth, while defensives like consumer staples and healthcare are expected to perform well [22] - Opportunities in economically-sensitive sectors are being explored, with a focus on industrials benefiting from AI integration and supply chain modernization [22][23]

Group 1 - Japanese banking giants Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Mizuho Financial Group are planning to jointly issue a stablecoin [2]

Group 1 - The three major Japanese banks, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Mizuho Financial Group, will jointly issue a stablecoin pegged to the Japanese yen, marking Japan's shift from regulatory caution to active participation in the digital currency market [1][2] - The banks aim to build infrastructure for corporate clients, allowing stablecoins to be transferred between clients according to a unified standard, with initial plans for a yen-pegged stablecoin and potential future expansion to a dollar-pegged stablecoin [1][2] - JPYC, a fintech startup, has received regulatory approval to issue Japan's first yen-pegged stablecoin, planning to launch in the fall with a target issuance scale of 1 trillion yen (approximately 68.1 billion USD) within three years [2] Group 2 - Monex Group is considering launching a yen-pegged stablecoin, which could enhance international remittances and corporate settlements denominated in yen [3] - The chairman of Monex Group emphasized the need for substantial infrastructure and capital to issue stablecoins, indicating that failure to engage in this market could lead to being left behind [3] - Japan is recognized as the first country to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, and the recent developments indicate a readiness to transition from regulatory caution to active involvement in digital finance [3]

Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. has reduced its stake in Fuyao Glass (600660) by selling 577,200 shares at a price of HKD 73.8368 per share, totaling approximately HKD 42.6186 million, resulting in a new holding of 36.1584 million shares, representing 5.95% of the company [1] Summary by Category - **Share Reduction**: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. sold 577,200 shares of Fuyao Glass [1] - **Transaction Details**: The shares were sold at a price of HKD 73.8368 each, amounting to a total of approximately HKD 42.6186 million [1] - **Post-Transaction Holdings**: After the sale, Mitsubishi's remaining shares in Fuyao Glass are 36.1584 million, which constitutes a 5.95% ownership stake [1]