NMI (NasdaqGM:NMIH) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 10, 2026 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsAdam Pollitzer - President and CEOAurora Swithenbank - CFOBose George - Managing DirectorBrad Shuster - Executive ChairmanJohn Swenson - Vice President of Investor Relations and TreasuryConference Call ParticipantsMark Hughes - Research AnalystRick Shane - Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystTerry Ma - Senior Equity Research AnalystOperatorGood day and welcome to the NMI Holdings, Inc Fourth Quarter 2025 Earni ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company reported record net income of $388.9 million, an increase of 8% compared to 2024 [4][10] - Diluted EPS reached $4.92, up 11% from 2024, with a return on equity of 16.2% [4][10] - Total revenue for Q4 was a record $180.7 million, compared to $166.5 million in Q4 2024, marking a 9% increase [10][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated $14.2 billion of new insurance written (NIW) in Q4, contributing to a total of $49 billion for the year [8][10] - The primary insurance in force grew to $221.4 billion, up 5.4% year-over-year [12][14] - The persistency rate was 83.4% in Q4, slightly down from 83.9% in Q3 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total MI industry NIW volume exceeded $300 billion in 2025, demonstrating strength despite elevated rates [10][11] - The company activated 90 new lenders in 2025, ending the year with over 1,700 active accounts [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue focusing on customer service, value-added engagement, and technology leadership [5][6] - Plans to maintain discipline and risk responsibility while growing the insured portfolio [5] - The company is committed to building value for shareholders and delivering strong mid-teens returns [5][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the macro environment and housing market resilience, with expectations for continued strength in the private MI market [10][11] - There is a recognition of the unique role the private mortgage insurance industry plays in supporting borrowers [6][11] - Management noted potential risks, including consumer debt levels and labor market strains, while remaining optimistic about future opportunities [26][28] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $31 million of common stock in Q4, with a total of $349 million repurchased since the buyback program began in 2022 [14][15] - New reinsurance treaties were secured, extending coverage through 2028 at an estimated 4% pre-tax cost of capital [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in the competitive landscape and core premium yield outlook for 2026 - Management noted a balanced and constructive environment, with expectations for core yield to remain generally stable [19][21] Question: Regulatory concerns regarding potential FHA premium reductions - Management highlighted the private MI industry's role and expressed skepticism about the need for FHA rate adjustments given existing challenges [22][23] Question: Health of the consumer and credit trends by state - Management reported broad resiliency in the macro environment, with no notable emerging issues in default experience across regions [26][30] Question: Outlook for persistency and quarterly runoff trends - Management acknowledged a decline in persistency but expects it to remain above historical trends moving forward [32][34] Question: Implications of different portfolio vintages on credit - Management discussed the potential for normalization in credit experience as older vintages run off, while newer vintages may have different characteristics [37][39] Question: NIW market share outlook for 2026 - Management expressed satisfaction with performance and indicated a compelling opportunity for growth in 2026 [41][44] Question: Future of quota share and capital management - Management confirmed plans for continued share buybacks and indicated a stable expense ratio target for 2026 [47][49]

EXHIBIT 99.1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE NMI Holdings, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results EMERYVILLE, Calif., Feb. 10, 2026 -- NMI Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: NMIH) today reported net income of $94.2 million, or $1.20 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to $96.0 million, or $1.22 per diluted share, for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 and $86.2 million, or $1.07 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2024. Net income ...

Core Insights - NMI Holdings, Inc. reported a net income of $94.2 million for Q4 2025, a slight decrease from $96.0 million in Q3 2025 but an increase from $86.2 million in Q4 2024, with diluted earnings per share at $1.20 [1][5] - For the full year 2025, net income reached $388.9 million, up from $360.1 million in 2024, indicating strong annual growth [1][5] Financial Performance - The company achieved a return on equity of 16.2% in 2025, reflecting strong operational performance and a robust balance sheet [2] - Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $180.7 million, compared to $178.7 million in Q3 2025 and $166.5 million in Q4 2024, marking a year-over-year increase of 8.1% [5][24] - Net premiums earned were $152.5 million in Q4 2025, up 6% from $143.5 million in Q4 2024 [4][24] Insurance Metrics - Primary insurance-in-force at the end of Q4 2025 was $221.4 billion, a 5% increase from $210.2 billion in Q4 2024 [3][5] - New insurance written (NIW) for Q4 2025 was $14.2 billion, representing a 19% increase year-over-year [3][36] Expense and Claims Analysis - Insurance claims and claim expenses for Q4 2025 were $21.2 million, a 23% increase from $17.3 million in Q4 2024, resulting in a loss ratio of 13.9% [4][5] - Underwriting and operating expenses were $31.1 million, consistent with Q4 2024, leading to an expense ratio of 20.4% [5][6] Shareholder Value - Book value per share, excluding net unrealized gains and losses, increased to $34.58, up 16% from $29.80 in Q4 2024 [5][6] - Shareholders' equity at the end of Q4 2025 was $2.6 billion, reflecting a strong capital position [5][27]

Company Overview - NMI Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:NMIH) is a leading provider of private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States, established in 2011 and headquartered in Emeryville, California, serving a diverse client base including national and regional mortgage banks, credit unions, and non-bank lenders [1] Stock Performance and Analyst Outlook - The consensus price target for NMIH's stock has shown stability over the past year, with the average price target at $43, slightly down from $43.5 in the previous quarter and year, indicating a steady outlook from analysts [2] - UBS analyst Doug Harter has set a lower price target of $39, reflecting a more cautious perspective on the company's future performance [2][5] Earnings Performance - NMIH is expected to release its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings results on February 10th, with analysts forecasting earnings of $1.17 per share and revenue of approximately $180.7 million [3] - In the recent Q3 2025 earnings call, NMIH reported earnings of $1.21 per share, meeting the Zacks Consensus Estimate and showing improvement from the previous year's earnings of $1.15 per share [3][5] Market Trends - Despite a recent 8.8% decline in stock price, placing NMIH in oversold territory, the company has experienced a 6.2% increase since its last earnings report, suggesting a potential trend reversal [4] - There is a strong consensus among Wall Street analysts to raise earnings estimates for NMIH, indicating positive sentiment regarding the company's future performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - NMI Holdings, Inc. will report its fourth quarter results for the period ending December 31, 2025, on February 10, 2026, after market close [1] Group 1: Earnings Announcement - The earnings report will be followed by a conference call and live webcast scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time / 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time [2] - The webcast will be accessible on the company's website, and a replay along with the earnings press release and supplemental information will also be available [2] Group 2: Company Overview - NMI Holdings, Inc. is the parent company of National Mortgage Insurance Corporation, which provides private mortgage insurance to support low-down-payment borrowers while protecting lenders and investors from losses due to borrower defaults [3]

Core Insights - NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) shares have increased by 15.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 7.8% [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $3.19 billion, with an average trading volume of 0.4 million shares over the last three months [2] - NMIH's stock closed at $41.21, close to its 52-week high of $43.20, indicating strong investor confidence and potential for further price appreciation [3] - Earnings for NMIH have grown by 15.7% over the last five years, with a solid track record of beating earnings estimates [4] - NMIH shares are trading at a forward price-to-book value of 1.26X, lower than the industry average of 1.48X, indicating attractive valuation [5] Growth Projections - NMIH is positioned to benefit from growth in the mortgage insurance sector, supported by a robust reinsurance strategy [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NMIH's 2025 earnings per share indicates an 8.6% year-over-year increase, with revenues expected to reach $704.54 million, reflecting a 7.9% improvement [10] - The average price target from analysts for NMIH is $44.71 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 10.1% from the last closing price [11] Financial Performance - NMIH's return on equity (ROE) for the trailing 12 months was 16.08%, significantly higher than the industry's 8.04%, indicating efficient use of shareholders' funds [13] - The company is focused on enhancing its return profile and managing expenses, with a new $250 million share repurchase program authorized through December 31, 2027 [16] - NMIH is expected to generate solid mid-teens returns for shareholders [17] Strategic Positioning - NMIH is well-positioned for growth with new primary insurance written and a comprehensive reinsurance program [18] - The company is expected to benefit from favorable growth estimates and the affordability of its shares, making it a stock to hold [19]

Core Insights - NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) shares closed at $37.58, close to its 52-week high of $43.20, indicating strong investor confidence and potential for further price appreciation [1] - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting solid upward momentum [1] Financial Performance - NMI Holdings' earnings have grown by 15.7% over the last five years, with a solid surprise history of beating earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters [2] - The company’s shares have gained 2.2% in the past year, underperforming the industry growth of 11% [3] Valuation Metrics - NMI Holdings' shares are trading at a forward price-to-book value of 1.15X, lower than the industry average of 1.46X and the Finance sector's 4.25X [4][8] - The Zacks average price target for NMIH is $43.00 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 15.5% from the last closing price [10] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NMI Holdings' 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 8.89%, with revenues projected at $702.40 million, reflecting a 7.9% improvement [9] - The company is expected to benefit from new business opportunities in the growing mortgage insurance market, with increased production of monthly and single premium policies [7][13] Return on Capital - NMI Holdings has a return on equity (ROE) of 16.08%, significantly higher than the industry average of 8%, indicating efficient use of shareholders' funds [12] - The company has a comprehensive reinsurance program to manage credit volatility and enhance its return profile [15] Strategic Initiatives - NMIH is focused on efficiency and expense management to drive margin expansion, with a new $250 million share repurchase program authorized through December 31, 2027 [16] - The insurer is well-positioned for growth with a favorable growth outlook and affordable share prices, supported by a VGM Score of B [18]

Core Insights - NMI Holdings (NMIH) is a provider of private mortgage insurance to home buyers in the US, with a focus on the dynamics of home prices and household incomes [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Home prices were rising faster than household incomes, indicating a potential imbalance in the housing market [1] - Mortgage delinquency rates were a concern, reflecting the financial strain on homeowners [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The financial markets are viewed as efficient, with most stocks reflecting their real current value [1] - The best investment opportunities are often found in stocks that are less widely followed or do not accurately reflect market opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - NMI Holdings (NMIH) has shown modest performance over the past year with a gain of only 1%, but it is growing more quickly compared to other mortgage insurers, resulting in a smaller legacy portfolio of low-risk policies [1] Company Performance - NMIH's stock performance has been relatively stable, gaining just 1% over the past year [1] - The company is experiencing faster growth compared to its peers in the mortgage insurance sector [1] Portfolio Analysis - NMIH maintains a smaller legacy portfolio of low-risk policies, which may contribute to its growth potential and risk profile [1]