Core Viewpoint - Software stocks have experienced a significant decline, with an approximate 18% drop in the S&P 500 software sector over the last six months, contrasting with a 9% increase in the overall index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Companies like SAP, Salesforce, and ServiceNow have seen substantial losses, with SAP down 30%, Salesforce down about 20%, and ServiceNow down approximately 40% [1] - The overall sentiment in the software sector is at a low point, primarily due to concerns surrounding AI's impact on traditional software business models [2] Group 2: Investor Concerns - Investors are worried that customers of software-as-a-service (SaaS) firms may develop in-house solutions using AI tools, reducing reliance on established providers like Salesforce [3] - There is also concern that AI is lowering barriers for new enterprise software startups, which could directly challenge established firms [4] Group 3: Industry Response - Established software companies are rapidly introducing agentic AI offerings to defend their market positions, but these platforms are still in early development stages [5] - Despite significant investments in agentic AI by SaaS companies, the adoption rate is slow, indicating a disconnect between corporate strategies and market realities [6] Group 4: Earnings Reports and CEO Insights - Following earnings reports, CEOs from Microsoft, ServiceNow, and SAP highlighted the benefits of AI for their companies, with ServiceNow's CEO stating that AI depends on enterprise software rather than replacing it [7] - Despite these positive assertions, the stock prices of these companies continued to decline, reflecting ongoing market skepticism [7]

Core Insights - A significant correction of approximately 35% in a defensive tech stock raises concerns about the reliability of such investments, which are typically perceived as lower risk [1] Group 1 - The article discusses the unexpected magnitude of risk associated with defensive tech investments, contrasting them with more traditional growth or opportunistic bets [1] - The author emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks involved in defensive tech calls, especially when they lead to substantial corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) has faced significant stock price declines, down 43% over the past year and 12% year-to-date, amidst a downturn in the enterprise software sector [1] Analyst Ratings - BMO Capital has reiterated an Outperform rating for ServiceNow, Inc. but reduced the share price target from $230 to $175, citing broader multiple compression as the reason for the cut [1] - Cantor Fitzgerald also lowered its price target from $240 to $200 while maintaining an Overweight rating, indicating limited downside risk for the stock [1] - Jefferies has similarly cut its target to $175 from $230, keeping a Buy rating on the shares [1] CEO Performance - Jim Cramer highlighted that CEO Bill McDermott has consistently met earnings expectations, despite the stock's significant decline [2] - Cramer emphasized the disconnect between McDermott's performance and the stock price, noting the stock's drop of one hundred points [2] Investment Perspective - While ServiceNow is recognized for its potential, there is a belief that other AI stocks may offer better returns with limited downside risk [2]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are expected to open lower due to a tech-led sell-off and ongoing corporate earnings digestion [1] - Nasdaq 100 futures declined 1.06%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.86%, and Dow futures slipped 0.81% [2] - Precious metals, including gold, saw significant declines, with gold's price dropping 2.8% to $5,205 per ounce [2] - Oil prices have also retreated amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] Major Market Indexes - On January 29, 2026, the S&P 500 closed down 0.1% at 6,969.01 after nearing its all-time high [3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 55.96 points, or 0.1%, finishing at 49,071.56 [3] - The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7% (172.33 points) to 23,685.12, indicating a shift towards defensive sectors [3] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data releases today include the January jobs report, focusing on payroll growth, unemployment rates, and average hourly earnings [4] - Upcoming data includes the January ISM manufacturing index, December job openings, and housing starts [4] - Japan's Tokyo CPI is also being monitored as a leading indicator for national inflation trends [4] Federal Reserve Appointment - Anticipation surrounds President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, which could lead to rising U.S. Treasury yields [5] - Warsh is known for his inflation hawk stance and criticism of the Fed, potentially signaling a shift in monetary policy [5] Corporate Earnings and Stock Movements - Major companies reporting earnings include Exxon Mobil, Chevron, American Express, Verizon, and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals [6] - Microsoft experienced a 10% drop despite strong quarterly results, as investors focused on future growth and investments [7] - Tesla's stock fell 3.5% despite exceeding profit expectations, with CEO Elon Musk redirecting focus to future ventures [11] - Sandisk Corporation surged over 19% in premarket trading after reporting exceptional earnings driven by AI demand [11] - Apple reported a 16% year-over-year revenue increase but saw flat premarket trading [11] - Southwest Airlines stock rose 18.7% despite missing profit forecasts, buoyed by an optimistic earnings outlook [11] - IBM's stock climbed 5.1% after surpassing profit and revenue expectations [11] - ServiceNow dropped 9.9% despite reporting stronger-than-expected profits [11] - Texas Instruments saw a market surge of over 7% following a favorable capital return strategy [11] - Other notable premarket movers include Deckers Outdoor Corporation up 12.71% and ResMed Inc. up 3.95% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for ServiceNow, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - ServiceNow reported a total revenue increase of 21% YoY to US$3.57 billion in 4Q25, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates. Non-GAAP operating income grew by 26% YoY to US$1.10 billion, exceeding consensus by 3% due to AI-enhanced efficiencies and disciplined expense control [1]. - For FY26E, management guided subscription revenue to increase by 20.5%-21% YoY to US$15.53-15.57 billion, with a further 100bps expansion of both non-GAAP operating profit and free cash flow margin to 32% and 36%, respectively, driven by AI-enabled efficiency gains [1]. - The AI product momentum remains strong, with Now Assist annual contract value (ACV) surpassing US$600 million in 4Q25, ahead of the previous target of US$500 million and on track to reach US$1 billion by FY26-end [1]. - The target price for ServiceNow has been lowered to US$215.00 based on a 40x FY26E EV/EBITDA, down from US$236.00 based on a 45x FY26E EV/EBITDA, reflecting sector valuation impacts due to increased competition from AI and LLM service providers [1][12]. Financial Summary - For FY26E, total revenue is projected at US$15.973 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach US$4.518 billion, resulting in an adjusted EPS of US$4.36 [2]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately US$122.22 billion, with a current share price of US$116.73, indicating an upside potential of 84.2% to the target price [3][4]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin expanded by 1.4 percentage points YoY to 30.9% in 4Q25, attributed to improved efficiency and disciplined expense control [9]. Growth Projections - Subscription revenue is expected to grow by 20.3% in FY26E, with adjusted net profit growth projected at 23.2% [15]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 20.5%-21% for FY26E, with further growth expected in subsequent years [1][14]. Valuation - The valuation of ServiceNow is set at US$215.00 per share based on a target EV/EBITDA of 40x for FY26E, which is at a premium to the sector average of 29x, justified by the strong earnings growth outlook [12][13].

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a decline in overall market sentiment, remaining in the "Greed" zone with a current reading of 61.7, down from 64 [1][5]. Stock Performance - U.S. stocks settled mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 150 points during the session. The Dow Jones closed higher by around 56 points to 49,071.56, while the S&P 500 fell 0.13% to 6,969.01 and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.72% to 23,685.12 [1][4]. Company-Specific Developments - Microsoft Corp. shares fell almost 10%, marking its worst session since March 2020, due to reported slowing cloud growth [2]. - ServiceNow Inc. shares tumbled 10% despite reporting upbeat earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter [2]. Economic Data - U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000, compared to market estimates of 205,000 [3]. - The trade deficit rose sharply to $56.8 billion in November from a $29.2 billion gap in the previous month [3]. - U.S. wholesale inventories increased by 0.2% to $915 billion in November, maintaining the same pace as the previous month [3]. - U.S. factory orders climbed by 2.7% from the previous month to $621.6 billion in November [3]. Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with real estate, communication services, and financial stocks recording the biggest gains. However, consumer discretionary and information technology stocks closed lower [4].

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a decline in overall market sentiment, remaining in the "Greed" zone with a current reading of 61.7, down from 64 [1][5]. Stock Performance - U.S. stocks settled mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 150 points during the session. The Dow Jones closed higher by around 56 points to 49,071.56, while the S&P 500 fell 0.13% to 6,969.01 and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.72% to 23,685.12 [1][4]. - Microsoft Corp. shares fell almost 10%, marking its worst session since March 2020, due to reported slowing cloud growth [2]. - ServiceNow Inc. shares tumbled 10% despite reporting upbeat earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter [2]. Economic Data - U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000, compared to market estimates of 205,000 [3]. - The trade deficit rose sharply to $56.8 billion in November from a $29.2 billion gap in the previous month [3]. - U.S. wholesale inventories increased by 0.2% to $915 billion in November, maintaining the same pace as the previous month [3]. - U.S. factory orders climbed by 2.7% from the previous month to $621.6 billion in November [3]. Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with real estate, communication services, and financial stocks recording the biggest gains [4]. - Consumer discretionary and information technology stocks closed lower, bucking the overall market trend [4].

Core Viewpoint - ServiceNow Inc. has experienced significant stock declines due to investor concerns regarding the impact of AI on the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry, despite reporting strong earnings in the fourth quarter of the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - ServiceNow's net income for the fourth quarter increased by 4 percent to $401 million, up from $384 million year-over-year, contributing to a full-year net profit of $1.75 billion, a 23 percent increase from $1.42 billion [3]. - Total revenues rose by 21 percent to $3.57 billion from $2.96 billion, with the full-year revenue reaching $13.3 billion, also a 21 percent increase from $10.98 billion year-over-year, surpassing earlier guidance [4]. - For the first quarter, ServiceNow anticipates subscription revenues between $3.650 billion and $3.655 billion, indicating an implied growth of 21.5 percent year-on-year [4]. - Full-year subscription revenues are projected to be between $15.53 billion and $15.57 billion, reflecting a 20.5 percent to 21 percent increase from 2025 levels [5]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the software sector remains negative, with concerns about AI advancements creating a challenging environment for SaaS companies that rely on subscription models [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The price-to-earnings multiple (referred to as "M") is crucial in determining stock prices and investor sentiment, particularly in the enterprise software sector, which is currently facing significant challenges due to concerns over AI replacing human employees [1][2][3]. Company Analysis - Service Now is highlighted as a strong company with a respected CEO, known for its ability to automate and digitize business processes, thereby improving efficiency [4][5]. - Despite Service Now's strong earnings and growth, its stock has declined over 50% in the past year, with a notable drop in its price-to-earnings multiple from 65 times forward earnings at the end of 2024 to just under 28 times earnings currently [6][8]. - The market is skeptical about Service Now's future profitability, believing that AI advancements will lead to reduced demand for user-based pricing, which poses an existential threat to the company [7][10]. Industry Context - The enterprise software industry, particularly companies like Service Now and Salesforce, is experiencing multiple compression, indicating that even with strong earnings, investor confidence is waning [10][12]. - The market's perception of growth potential is critical, as it currently views these companies as no longer being growth names despite their ongoing strong performance [11][12]. - There is an expectation that the price-to-earnings multiple may continue to shrink before it stabilizes, suggesting a potential buying opportunity in the future once the bottom is reached [13].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are fleeing from enterprise software stocks due to concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting traditional business models, making it difficult to assess future earnings potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is crucial for understanding stock valuations, reflecting how much investors are willing to pay for future profits [2]. - Current market conditions show a compression of P/E multiples across software stocks, indicating reduced investor confidence in future growth [2][3]. - ServiceNow exemplifies this trend, experiencing a significant drop in its stock price despite reporting better-than-expected earnings and a substantial buyback [3]. Group 2: ServiceNow's Performance - ServiceNow's stock has decreased approximately 49% over the past year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of about 15% during the same period [3]. - The company's P/E multiple has dramatically declined from the upper 60s in January 2025 to just under 28 times forward earnings after recent market reactions [4]. - Despite the market's harsh judgment, there is a belief that ServiceNow will continue to deliver earnings, although this does not currently influence its stock price [5].