Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation is facing challenges in its fourth-quarter earnings guidance, which is below analyst expectations, but remains optimistic about recovery in 2026 due to improving order backlogs [2][4][6] Financial Performance - Nucor's projected earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter is between $1.65 and $1.75, which is below the consensus estimate of $2.18 [2][6] - The company's current stock price is $160.69, reflecting a decrease of 0.97% or $1.57 [5] - Nucor's market capitalization is approximately $36.78 billion [5] Operational Segments - The anticipated decline in earnings is attributed to seasonal pressures and fewer shipping days, affecting all three operating segments: steel mills, steel products, and raw materials [3] - In the steel mills segment, earnings are expected to decrease due to lower volumes and margin compression, particularly in sheet products [3] - The steel products segment faces challenges with lower volumes and higher average costs per ton, although improved average pricing may provide some relief [3] Shareholder Actions - Nucor has continued its share repurchase program, buying back approximately 0.7 million shares in the fourth quarter at an average price of $145.23, bringing total repurchases for the year to about 5.4 million shares [4][6] Market Outlook - Despite current challenges, Nucor remains optimistic about a recovery in 2026, driven by improving order backlogs [4][6]

Core Insights - Nucor Corporation (NUE) has projected fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) for the period ending December 31, 2025, in the range of $1.65 to $1.75, indicating a decline from $2.63 in the third quarter of 2025 but an improvement over $1.22 in the fourth quarter of 2024 [1][7] Earnings Outlook - The anticipated decline in earnings is attributed to seasonal factors and fewer shipping days, with the steel mills segment expected to see moderated earnings due to lower shipment volumes and margin pressure, especially in sheet products [2][7] - The steel products segment is forecasted to experience reduced profitability due to lower volumes and higher average costs per ton, although this is partially offset by improved realized pricing [3] - The raw materials segment is expected to underperform due to two planned outages at Nucor's direct reduced iron facilities [3] Shareholder Returns - Despite the earnings decline, Nucor has prioritized shareholder returns, repurchasing approximately 0.7 million shares at an average price of about $145.23 during the quarter, totaling around 5.4 million shares repurchased year-to-date at an average cost of roughly $128.66 per share [4][7] - Including dividends, Nucor has returned about $1.2 billion to shareholders year-to-date in 2025 [4][7] Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic for 2026, citing significantly higher order backlogs compared to the previous year, particularly in construction-related end markets such as energy, infrastructure, data centers, and manufacturing [5] - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in market conditions, supported by favorable monetary, tax, and trade policies [5] - Nucor is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results after market close on January 26, 2026 [5] Stock Performance - Shares of NUE have increased by 27.3% over the past six months, compared to a 33.6% rise in the industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - Steelmakers Nucor and Steel Dynamics have indicated that their fourth-quarter earnings will significantly fall below Wall Street's expectations [1] Company Summary - Nucor and Steel Dynamics are both major players in the steel manufacturing industry [1] - The warning about earnings suggests potential challenges in the market environment affecting these companies [1] Industry Summary - The steel industry is facing pressures that may lead to lower-than-expected financial performance for key companies [1] - The earnings forecast indicates a broader trend that could impact investor sentiment and market dynamics within the steel sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation anticipates a decrease in fourth quarter earnings for 2025, projecting earnings per diluted share between $1.65 and $1.75, down from $2.63 in the third quarter of 2025 and $1.22 in the fourth quarter of 2024 [1][2] Fourth Quarter of 2025 Commentary - Earnings are expected to decline across all operating segments compared to the third quarter of 2025 due to seasonal effects and fewer shipping days [2] - The steel mills segment is projected to see lower earnings due to reduced volumes and margin compression, particularly in sheet products [2] - The steel products segment is expected to experience a decline in earnings driven by lower volumes and increased average costs per ton, although partially offset by higher average realized pricing [2] - The raw materials segment is anticipated to have lower earnings primarily due to two scheduled outages at DRI facilities [2] Capital Returns - Nucor repurchased approximately 0.7 million shares at an average price of $145.23 per share during the fourth quarter, totaling about 5.4 million shares year-to-date at an average price of $128.66 per share [3] - The company has returned approximately $1.2 billion to stockholders through share repurchases and dividend payments year-to-date [3] 2026 Outlook - Nucor is optimistic about 2026, citing significantly higher backlogs compared to the previous year, particularly in construction market segments such as energy, infrastructure, data centers, and manufacturing [4] - The company expects that favorable monetary, tax, and trade policies will contribute to gradual improvements in business conditions [4] Earnings Release and Conference Call - Nucor plans to release its fourth quarter earnings after market close on January 26, 2026, followed by a conference call on January 27, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time [5]

Core Insights - Nucor's stock has surged 15% since reporting strong third-quarter results, leading to a year-to-date return of 42.8%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 17% gain [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The steel sector is cyclical, with several catalysts potentially driving Nucor's stock higher [2] - A construction cycle is beginning to boost the steel sector, with high-growth markets like data center construction identified as ongoing catalysts for Nucor's business [4] - Significant capital investments in various sectors, including a $6 billion facility by Eli Lilly, are expected to drive demand for steel [5] Group 2: Capacity Expansion - Nucor is constructing a new steel mill in West Virginia, expected to ramp up production by the end of next year [8] - Nippon Steel plans to invest $4 billion in a new steel mill, adding approximately 3 million tons of annual domestic capacity [8] - The construction of new steel mills takes years, with Nippon's project site selection expected by early 2027 [9] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The dynamics of supply and demand will drive steel pricing, which could be impacted by the increase in domestic capacity [7] - An expanding economic and construction cycle is bullish for Nucor, which is one of the most efficient and profitable steel companies [10] - Lower steel pricing may negatively affect profitability for domestic mills, particularly Nippon's U.S. Steel, more than for Nucor [10]

Group 1 - Jefferies raised the target price for Nucor Corporation from $170 to $190, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Industry Overview - The steel industry faced significant price volatility and uneven demand in 2025, influenced by factors such as a slowdown in China, U.S. tariff actions, and fluctuating input costs [1][3] - Steel prices began 2025 weakly, with a peak of nearly $950 per short ton due to a 25% tariff on steel imports, but later fell below $800 per short ton due to weak demand and high output [3] - A recovery in steel prices was observed in Q4 2025, with prices surpassing $900 per short ton, driven by increased demand in construction and automotive sectors [4] Demand Dynamics - China's steel demand weakened due to an economic slowdown, particularly in the real estate sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of its steel consumption [5] - Global steel prices were pressured by oversupply and increased Chinese steel exports, alongside sluggish industrial activity in Europe due to economic challenges [6] - The automotive sector experienced a slowdown in production, impacting steel consumption, while non-residential construction demand remained strong, supported by government infrastructure projects [7][8] Company Performances - Certain steel companies, including Commercial Metals Company (CMC), ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT), Nucor Corporation (NUE), and Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD), achieved over 40% gains year-to-date amid the industry's challenges [2][9] - CMC is expanding through acquisitions and price increases, with a focus on growth in North America and a strong financial position [15][16] - ArcelorMittal is enhancing its steel-making capacity and focusing on high-value products, with a significant share price increase of 94.5% in 2025 [17][18] - Steel Dynamics is investing in capacity expansion and has seen strong order activity, with shares rising 50.1% year-to-date [19][21] - Nucor is leveraging strategic investments and acquisitions to boost production capacity, with a share price increase of 40.8% in 2025 [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Nucor's share price has recently surged, outperforming the market, but its long-term performance reveals mixed results [1][2]. Performance Summary One-Year Returns - Nucor's stock has increased by 11.9% over the past year, lagging behind the S&P 500's return of 12.6% by 0.7 percentage points [4]. - Including dividends, Nucor's total one-year return is 13.8%, still trailing the S&P 500's total return of 14.3% [6]. Three-Year Returns - Investors who purchased Nucor shares three years ago have seen a return of 6.5%, or 11.2% on a total return basis [8]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 has returned 74.4% on an absolute basis and 82.4% on a total return basis during the same period, indicating a significant underperformance by Nucor [8]. Five-Year Returns - Nucor's five-year returns have outperformed the market, with a total return of 209.4% since December 8, 2020, compared to the S&P 500's total return of 100.3% [9]. - This performance is largely attributed to a strong year in 2021, where Nucor's shares rose by 118.4% on a total return basis [9]. Industry Insights - The cyclical nature of the steel industry means that returns can vary significantly based on market conditions [10]. - Long-term investment in quality companies like Nucor can help investors navigate short-term cyclical trends [10].

Core Insights - Two stocks in the materials sector are identified as potentially overbought, which may concern momentum-focused investors [1] Company Summaries - **Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE)**: - Recently promoted Steve Laxton to president and COO, highlighting his leadership and strategic vision [7] - Stock performance: gained approximately 12% over the past month, with a 52-week high of $166.26 [7] - RSI Value: 70.1, indicating it is nearing overbought territory [7] - Recent price action: shares fell 1.3% to close at $162.54 [7] - Edge Stock Ratings: Momentum score of 91.92 and Value score of 93.51 [7] - **Ashland Inc (NYSE:ASH)**: - Reported disappointing quarterly results, but maintained strong margins and delivered revenue and EBITDA in line with prior guidance [7] - Stock performance: gained around 15% over the past month, with a 52-week high of $78.12 [7] - RSI Value: 71.4, indicating it is overbought [7] - Recent price action: shares rose 0.1% to close at $58.29 [7]

Company Overview - Nucor Corporation (NUE) is the largest steel producer and recycler in the U.S., valued at $32.4 billion by market cap, and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina [1] - The company operates across steel mills, steel products, and raw materials, producing a wide range of products including sheet and structural steel, joists, girders, and tubing [1] - Nucor's scrap-based, electric-arc furnace model enhances its flexibility and environmental consciousness compared to traditional steelmakers [1] Market Position - NUE is classified as a large-cap stock, with a market cap exceeding $10 billion, highlighting its size, influence, and dominance in the steel industry [2] - The company has integrated operations and a diversified product portfolio, serving sectors such as construction, infrastructure, manufacturing, and energy, positioning it as a resilient leader in the steel industry [2] Stock Performance - NUE stock reached a 52-week high of $166.26 in the last trading session, with a 13.4% gain over the past three months, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite's 9.1% rise [3] - Year-to-date, NUE shares have risen 41.1%, surpassing the Nasdaq's YTD gains of 21.5%, although the stock has only climbed 6.3% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming the Nasdaq's 20.5% returns [4] - The stock has been trading above its 200-day moving average since early July and above its 50-day moving average since late October, indicating a bullish trend [4] Financial Performance - In the third quarter earnings report released on October 27, Nucor reported revenue of $8.52 billion and EPS of $2.63, both exceeding year-ago levels and analyst expectations [5] - The Steel Mills segment contributed significantly to the gains due to higher shipments and robust margins, while the Steel Products and Raw Materials segments experienced sequential dips due to higher costs and softer pricing [5] - Nucor maintains a strong balance sheet with $2.22 billion in cash and an undrawn credit facility, continuing shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [5]