Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued stocks that are mispriced by the market, suggesting that investors should consider joining the investment group Out Fox The Street for insights and strategies to capitalize on these opportunities by the end of 2025 [1]. Group 1 - Stone Fox Capital is an RIA based in Oklahoma, led by Mark Holder, a CPA with extensive experience in investing and portfolio management [2]. - Mark Holder has 30 years of investing experience, including 15 years as a portfolio manager, and he leads the investing group Out Fox The Street [2]. - The Out Fox The Street group provides various features such as model portfolios, stock picks with identifiable catalysts, daily updates, real-time alerts, and community chat access for direct interaction with Mark [2].

Industry Overview - Cybersecurity is a rapidly growing market driven by the digitization of organizations and the increasing scale of cyber threats, with demand expected to continue growing through 2026 as threats evolve and architectures shift to cloud and AI [1] - The global cybersecurity market is projected to grow from $218.98 billion in 2025 to $562.77 billion by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.40% [2] - Key sectors for investment opportunities include finance, healthcare, and government, with significant potential in AI-driven security, managed security services, and zero-trust architectures, particularly in emerging markets like Asia Pacific and South America [2] Market Dynamics - The cybersecurity sector benefits from strong secular tailwinds, but faces challenges such as intense competition, rapid technological changes, regulatory complexity, and high talent costs [3] - As cyber threats increase across various environments, companies are compelled to invest more in cybersecurity, making it essential for business continuity and digital trust [1][3] Company Highlights - **Qualys Inc. (QLYS)**: A leading provider of information security solutions, with a focus on continuous product innovation in areas like Vulnerability Management, Detection, and Response. The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $665.8 million to $667.8 million, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase [5][6] - **Fortinet Inc. (FTNT)**: Provides network security appliances and Unified Threat Management solutions. The company is experiencing strong demand from large enterprise customers, although it faces challenges in sales execution and marketing efficiency. Its full-year revenue guidance is $6.72 billion to $6.78 billion [8][9] - **CrowdStrike (CRWD)**: Specializes in next-generation endpoint protection and threat intelligence. The company expects revenues for fiscal 2026 to be between $4.797 billion and $4.807 billion, with a strong sales pipeline and customer adoption of its Falcon platform [10][11] - **Palo Alto Networks (PANW)**: Offers network security solutions and is enhancing its platform strategy through the acquisition of CyberArk Software, expected to close in the second half of fiscal 2026. This acquisition aims to strengthen identity-aware security and is projected to be accretive to revenue growth and gross margin [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are cautious about large tech and growth stocks after significant gains this year, indicating a market style shift, yet they identify some large-cap stocks with substantial investment value, including Palo Alto Networks [1][2]. Company Overview - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is recognized as a leading cybersecurity stock, with a modest increase of approximately 5% this year due to investor skepticism regarding its acquisition strategy [3][4]. Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Chronosphere for $3.35 billion is expected to enhance Palo Alto Networks' financial performance, targeting a growing demand for data processing in the AI era [4][7]. - Chronosphere's annual recurring revenue (ARR) is reported at $160 million, with a triple-digit growth rate, suggesting a favorable acquisition multiple of about 10 times revenue [7][8]. Market Potential - Palo Alto Networks' total addressable market (TAM) has surged to $300 billion, with current annual revenue around $10 billion, indicating a penetration rate of only about 3% [8][9]. Financial Performance - For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Palo Alto Networks reported total revenue of $2.474 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16%, surpassing Wall Street expectations [13]. - Remaining performance obligations (RPO) grew by 24% to $15.5 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [13]. Strategic Growth - The company aims to leverage its high stock valuation and robust cash flow to enhance growth potential, with expectations of a performance breakout in 2026 [9][25]. - The platform strategy has led to significant orders, including a $33 million contract with a U.S. government agency, highlighting the shift towards integrated solutions [17][19]. Profitability and Guidance - Palo Alto Networks maintains a strong operating margin of 30.2%, with a long-term goal of achieving a free cash flow margin exceeding 40% by fiscal year 2028 [21][23]. - The revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 has been raised to $10.5-10.54 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth [23]. Valuation Metrics - Current valuation metrics indicate an enterprise value to fiscal year 2026 revenue ratio of 11.4 times and a free cash flow ratio of 29.7 times, suggesting attractive valuation for a company with significant growth prospects [24].

Core Viewpoint - The stock markets are expected to remain volatile as 2026 approaches, necessitating active portfolio management strategies for the upcoming year [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - There is skepticism regarding large-cap technology and growth stocks following a significant increase in their valuations this year [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst, Gary Alexander, has extensive experience in covering technology companies on Wall Street and has worked in Silicon Valley, providing insights into current industry trends [1]. - He has been contributing to Seeking Alpha since 2017 and has been featured in various web publications, with his articles reaching audiences through popular trading apps like Robinhood [1].

Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) secured a multibillion-dollar deal to enhance its position in the AI security market through an expanded partnership with Google Cloud [1][4] - The deal aims to address the urgent need for AI security as enterprises face increasing attacks on their AI infrastructure [2] - The partnership is expected to generate significant revenue as companies adopt combined Google-Palo Alto architectures for AI security [4] Group 1: Partnership and Market Position - The expanded partnership includes migrating key internal workloads to Google Cloud and integrating Palo Alto's Prisma AIRS security platform into Google's AI tools [1][3] - The collaboration builds on a successful history, generating over $2 billion in Google Cloud Marketplace sales and over 75 joint integrations [3] - The integration with Google's Vertex AI platform and Gemini language models allows for embedding security controls directly into AI applications [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Palo Alto Networks reported remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $15.5 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year [6] - The company's annual recurring revenue from next-generation security rose by 29% to $5.85 billion [6] - A significant $100 million deal with a major telecom provider included an $85 million commitment to XSIAM, marking the largest security operations platform deal in the company's history [7]

Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW) is highlighted as a prominent AI stock, with an "Overweight" rating reaffirmed by Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Jonathan Ruykhaver after a strong F1Q26 performance, driven by AI-era security demand and platform consolidation [1][3] Financial Performance - The company reported better-than-expected performance across all metrics, indicating strong momentum in its business operations [1] Strategic Goals - Palo Alto raised its long-term Next-Generation Security (NGS) Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) target to $20 billion by FY30, reflecting growth in areas such as SASE, Cortex, and AIRS, as well as an expanding total addressable market [2] Acquisitions and Market Position - The acquisition of Chronosphere, a next-generation observability platform, is expected to enhance Palo Alto's capabilities in AI workloads, positioning the company as a leader in full-stack security and observability [3] Long-term Outlook - The company is viewed positively in the long term as it aligns itself with significant platform shifts in AI, identity, and quantum security [3]

Core Viewpoint - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has reported strong Q3 free cash flow (FCF) and an increase in FCF margin on a trailing 12-month basis, indicating potential undervaluation of the stock, making it attractive for value investors [1] Financial Performance - PANW's stock is currently trading at $189.76, significantly below its recent peak of $221.28, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [1] - Analysts have set a price target of $212.16 per share, which is 11.8% higher than the current price, based on strong FCF margins and revenue forecasts [2] - The average price target from 55 analysts is $225.42, an increase from $224.59 a month ago, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [3] Options Strategy - Shorting out-of-the-money (OTM) put options has been discussed as a strategy to establish a lower potential buy-in point while generating income [4] - A previous short-put strategy involved a $180 strike price put option, which yielded a short-put yield of 2.56% for the next month, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach [5] - Current options data shows that the $180 strike price put option for January 23, 2026, has a midpoint premium of $2.28, providing a one-month yield of 1.267% [6] - For less risk-averse investors, shorting the $185.00 put option offers a yield of 1.9189% for an investment of $18,500 [7]

Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is enhancing its partnership with Google Cloud to bolster secure artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud adoption, integrating its Prisma AI Runtime Security (AIRS) directly into Google Cloud's services [1][2] Partnership Expansion - The expanded partnership includes the integration of Prisma AIRS with Google Cloud services like Vertex AI and Agent Engine, enabling customers to secure AI models, data, and agents while operating on Google Cloud [2] - The partnership also emphasizes the use of Palo Alto Networks' software firewalls and Secured Access Service Edge products, allowing for consistent security policies across cloud, AI, and network environments [2] Security Features - Prisma AIRS provides real-time checks on prompts, responses, and agent actions, mitigating risks such as prompt injection, data leakage, and tool misuse, eliminating the need for separate security products [3] - In addition to Google Cloud, Prisma AIRS has been integrated with other AI agent platforms, including Factory, Glean, IBM, and ServiceNow, enhancing security within existing customer tools [3] Adoption and Growth - The adoption of Prisma AIRS is on the rise, with the number of deals more than doubling sequentially in Q1 fiscal 2026, indicating increasing usage [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts revenue growth of approximately 14.1% for fiscal 2026 and 13.3% for fiscal 2027, suggesting strong future growth potential for PANW [4] Competitive Landscape - Competitors such as CrowdStrike and Okta are also focusing on partnerships and acquisitions to enhance their platforms and drive AI innovation [5] - CrowdStrike has expanded its partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS), integrating its Falcon Next-Generation Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) into AWS Security Hub, which may increase user adoption [6] - Okta's acquisition of Axiom Security has added new tools for privileged access management, enhancing its offerings in cloud and SaaS security [7] Financial Performance - Palo Alto Networks' shares have decreased by 10.2% over the past three months, compared to an 8.4% decline in the Zacks Security industry [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 11.77X, slightly below the industry's average of 11.79X, indicating a competitive valuation [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings suggests year-over-year growth of 14.7% and 12.5%, respectively, with recent revisions indicating a slight upward adjustment for fiscal 2026 and a downward adjustment for fiscal 2027 [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Technology Equities** sector, particularly the **software and AI** landscape, highlighting the transition towards AI productization expected by **2026** [1][2]. Core Insights - **AI Productization Timeline**: 2026 is projected as the pivotal year for AI productization within enterprise software, moving from early-stage deployment to widespread enterprise integration [1][2]. - **Current AI Deployment Challenges**: Companies are still in the early stages of AI experimentation, facing challenges in hiring skilled talent and achieving meaningful results from initial projects [1][2]. - **Shift in Investment Focus**: There is a notable shift from hardware to software investments as companies begin embedding AI into their existing workflows, with significant advancements seen in companies like **Oracle, Microsoft, Salesforce, and ServiceNow** [1][2][5]. - **Monetization Visibility**: Vendors controlling structured enterprise processes are expected to have improved monetization visibility as AI becomes a value-added feature in their product suites [2]. Financial Performance Highlights - **Q3 Earnings Performance**: Most companies reported modest revenue beats but significant improvements in non-GAAP operating income and EPS, indicating early economic benefits from AI deployments [7][9]. - **Revenue Growth Constraints**: Despite increased interest in AI, enterprise budget expansions remain modest, limiting revenue growth [9]. - **Profitability Boost from AI**: AI-driven efficiencies are enhancing unit economics, leading to higher non-GAAP operating income and EPS, even without substantial revenue increases [9]. Company-Specific Insights - **Preferred AI Stocks**: The report identifies **Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), ServiceNow (NOW), and Salesforce (CRM)** as preferred stocks likely to benefit from their strategic positioning in the AI landscape by 2026 [2][5]. - **Earnings Revisions**: Companies like **Microsoft** and **Palantir** have seen significant upward revisions in revenue and EPS forecasts, reflecting strong AI-related demand [13][14]. - **CoreWeave's Performance**: CoreWeave reported revenue of **USD 1,365 million** for Q3, exceeding consensus but below estimates, with concerns about asset turnover and future guidance indicating potential revenue decline [18][19]. Market Dynamics - **AI Infrastructure Demand**: The demand for AI infrastructure and data workloads is solid, with companies like **Oracle and CoreWeave** aggressively scaling capacity [15]. - **Investor Sentiment**: There is a growing investor focus on how companies will deploy AI to solve business problems, with many still not fully recognizing the link between AI deployment and enterprise software [2]. Conclusion - The technology sector is on the brink of a significant transformation driven by AI, with 2026 expected to be a critical year for monetization and integration into enterprise workflows. Companies that are well-positioned in the software space are likely to capitalize on this trend, while challenges remain in the broader economic environment and enterprise budget constraints.

Summary of the 2026 Year Ahead Outlook: Securing The Agentic Wave Industry Overview - **Industry**: Security Software - **Key Analysts**: Brian Essex, CFA; John Lee; Alex Isaac from J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Core Insights 1. **Favorable Outlook for Security Software in 2026** - The demand backdrop is healthy with reasonable expectations and attractive setups for better-than-expected execution - Top picks include PANW, CLBT, NTSK, and ZS, while FTNT is moved to Underweight due to competitive disadvantages [13][25] 2. **Market Dynamics in 2025** - 2025 was marked by macro uncertainty, leading to a slight contraction in average multiples across the coverage - Security software benefitted from a rotation towards stronger thematic names, particularly those with AI tailwinds [14][22] 3. **Budget Pressures and Spending Trends** - IT Security budgets are expected to grow at a slower pace compared to previous years, with a lower percentage of IT spending allocated to Security - Most budget pressure will impact headcount-related spending, while software spending remains healthy [22][62] 4. **AI's Impact on Security** - AI has increased the volume and sophistication of threats, necessitating a focus on Network Security, Endpoint, and Identity - Demand for SASE (Secure Access Service Edge) remains elevated, driven by AI adoption [23][24] 5. **Platformization and Vendor Performance** - Spending is expected to favor platform vendors that can consolidate across multiple high-priority categories - Established platforms are well-positioned for margin expansion and free cash flow growth [24][27] Key Company Insights 1. **Top Picks for 2026** - **PANW**: Comprehensive end-to-end platform with strong share consolidation capabilities; expected FCF margin expansion to 40% or better [27] - **CLBT**: Positioned for reacceleration driven by government demand; attractive valuation for potential 20%+ y/y growth [28] - **NTSK**: High-growth vendor with improving market traction; well-positioned for demand in Network, Data, and AI security [29] - **ZS**: Benefitting from a shift in Network Security spending; expected to gain from an expanding attack surface [30] 2. **Underweight Ratings** - **FTNT**: Facing challenges as a platform consolidator; current market conditions are unfavorable for stock performance [25] Additional Insights 1. **Consolidation Trends** - M&A activity is expected to accelerate, with private companies driving innovation in the security software space - Notable acquisitions include CyberArk by PANW and several others across the industry [105] 2. **Emerging Threats and Security Needs** - Cyber risks remain a top concern for C-suite executives, with a growing need for solutions to secure AI and machine identities - The market for securing AI is fragmented but expected to grow as larger players invest in this area [145][148] 3. **Growth Projections** - Security software is projected to remain a high-growth sector, with significant opportunities in Cloud Security, Data Privacy, and Endpoint Security - Expected CAGRs from 2024-2029 include Cloud Security at 24% and Data/Privacy at 13% [83] 4. **Valuation and Fundamentals** - Average multiples have contracted, but high-growth vendors are beginning to see multiple appreciation as interest rates stabilize - Companies that can reaccelerate growth while improving profitability will be favored in the market [111][116] This summary encapsulates the key points from the 2026 Year Ahead Outlook for the Security Software industry, highlighting the anticipated trends, company performances, and market dynamics.