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PotlatchDeltic Positioned To Have Earnings Bump When Lumber Prices Normalize
Seeking Alpha· 2024-12-05 00:02
Core Thesis - PotlatchDeltic Corporation (PCH) is currently trading at a significant discount (73% of net asset value) due to recent commodity pricing weakness, but the outlook for lumber is improving, suggesting a potential doubling of EBITDA from 2024 levels [3][26]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of lumber is declining as major producers like Canfor and Interfor are closing mills and reducing output due to low prices and rising tariffs, with North American lumber capacity expected to decrease by over 3 billion board feet in 2024 [5][6][7]. - Demand for lumber is anticipated to increase, driven by a potential uptick in housing activity, as indicated by improved homebuilder confidence and favorable survey results [12][13][14]. Financial Performance and Valuation - PCH's EBITDA is projected to be $223.5 million in 2024, despite current challenges, with the company maintaining a positive EBITDA due to its cost advantages from owning timberlands [8][26]. - The volatility in PCH's EBITDA is notable, with figures ranging from negative $9.5 million in 3Q24 to $652.8 million in 2021, reflecting the cyclical nature of the lumber market [22][23][24]. - PCH's trailing EV/EBITDA is 11.38X, indicating substantial undervaluation compared to the market, especially given the expected recovery in lumber prices [26][27]. Future Catalysts - The upcoming 4Q24 earnings report on January 27th is seen as a potential catalyst for PCH's stock recovery, as the company may report higher-than-expected EBITDA due to recent increases in lumber prices [28][29].
Appia Secures an Additional Mineral Claim at its PCH Ionic Adsorption Clay Project, Goias - Brazil
Newsfile· 2024-11-14 12:30
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - November 14, 2024) - Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp. (CSE: API) (OTCQB: APAAF) (FWB: A0I0) (MUN: A0I0) (BER: A0I0) (the "Company" or "Appia") is pleased to announce that it secured one (1) additional mining claim on the Eastern border adjacent to its existing mineral claims at the PCH project through a public bidding process conducted by the Brazilian National Mining Agency ("Agencia Nacional de Mineração" or "ANM"). The new mining claim (see Map #1) will increase the ...
Potlatch (PCH) Upgraded to Buy: Here's What You Should Know
ZACKS· 2024-11-01 17:01
Potlatch (PCH) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.The power of a changing earnings pi ...
PotlatchDeltic(PCH) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-10-29 22:18
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total adjusted EBITDDA for Q3 2024 was $46 million, a significant decrease from $103 million in Q2 2024, primarily due to a large land sale in the previous quarter [31] - Adjusted EBITDDA for the Timberlands division was $36 million, slightly higher than the previous quarter, with harvest volume in Idaho increasing to 427,000 tons from 365,000 tons [32] - Adjusted EBITDDA loss in the Wood Products segment widened from $7 million in Q2 to $10 million in Q3, driven by lower lumber prices and increased manufacturing costs [34] - The Real Estate segment generated $32 million in adjusted EBITDDA, down from $90 million in Q2, largely due to the absence of significant commercial land sales [37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Timberlands division harvested 1.5 million tons in the South, consistent with Q2, while Southern pine sawlog prices remained stable despite slight moderation [33] - Wood Products segment saw average lumber price realization decrease by 5% from $423 per thousand board feet in Q2 to $402 in Q3, with shipments dropping to 267 million board feet [35][36] - Real Estate development business experienced increased EBITDDA due to higher residential lot sales, with 53 lots sold at an average price of $205,000, a record for the community [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lumber markets hit cyclical lows early in Q3 but began to recover mid-quarter, with prices increasing from $359 to $418, a 16% rise [10] - The U.S. housing market showed resilience, with new home sales in September reaching the highest level in 16 months, despite elevated interest rates [24] - Multifamily construction faced challenges due to an oversupply of units and restrictive financing, while long-term housing fundamentals remained strong [25][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing product mix, efficiently running mills, and managing costs to navigate challenging lumber markets [14] - The modernization and expansion project at the Waldo sawmill is expected to increase annual capacity by 85 million board feet and improve recovery by approximately 6% [13] - The company is exploring natural climate solutions, including solar development and lithium opportunities, which are anticipated to drive future growth [17][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the lumber market's recovery, attributing recent price increases to supply constraints and anticipated demand growth due to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [54] - The company expects to harvest 1.8 million to 1.9 million tons in Q4, with a forecasted increase in Northern sawlog prices and improved production levels at the Waldo sawmill [44][45] - Long-term demand fundamentals in housing and repair and remodel sectors are expected to support growth, with anticipated increases in residential improvement spending [28][29] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $2 million worth of shares in Q3, with $98 million remaining under the repurchase program [23] - Total liquidity was reported at $460 million, including $161 million in cash [40] - Capital expenditures for the year are projected to be between $100 million and $110 million, with a significant portion allocated to the Waldo project [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent uptick in lumber prices - Management indicated that the recent increase in lumber prices is largely supply-driven, with significant capacity reductions in the market [52] Question: Southern sawlog prices and inflation - Management expects log prices to improve as lumber markets recover, particularly in the Southeast region [60] Question: Northern sawlog pricing clarification - The anticipated increase in Northern sawlog prices includes a seasonal density factor [63] Question: Timeline for natural climate solutions contracts - Management is optimistic about solar options but expects significant impacts on P&L to materialize around 2026 [66] Question: Timberland deal activity - The timberland M&A market is currently sluggish, with a lack of high-quality properties available for sale [70] Question: Manufacturing costs in Wood Products - Management expects a significant drop in processing costs as the Waldo mill ramps up production [75] Question: Supply trade flow on lumber markets - Imports from Europe have decreased by about 10% this year, with expectations of moderated import levels [80] Question: Capital spending priorities for 2025 - Management is still in the budgeting process for 2025 and has not finalized capital spending plans [85]
Potlatch (PCH) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
ZACKS· 2024-10-28 22:51
Potlatch (PCH) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.04 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.14 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 200%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this timberland owner and wood products company would post earnings of $0.17 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.17, delivering no surprise. Over the last ...
Appia Begins Diamond Drilling to Delineate Potential Highgrade Mineralization at PCH Target IV in Goias, Brazil
Newsfile· 2024-10-23 11:30
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - October 23, 2024) - Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp. (CSE: API) (OTCQX: APAAF) (FSE: A0I0) (MUN: A0I0) (BER: A0I0) (the "Company" or "Appia") is excited to announce the commencement of its diamond drilling program in the southwest corner of Target IV. The goal of this program is to identify and delineate a possible Rare Earth Elements (REE) highgrade area at depth, identified by previous Reverse Circulation (RC) drilling (See January 16th 2024 Press Release), associated ...
Potlatch (PCH) Q2 Earnings Match Estimates
ZACKS· 2024-07-29 22:40
This maker of fencing and decking products is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.79 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +11.3%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. Potlatch (PCH) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.17 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compares to earnings of $0.06 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. Over the last four quarter ...
PotlatchDeltic(PCH) - 2024 Q2 - Quarterly Results
2024-07-29 20:15
Exhibit 99.1 News Release For immediate release: Contact: Investors Media Wayne Wasechek Anna Torma 509.835.1521 509.835.1558 PotlatchDeltic Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2024 Results SPOKANE, Wash., July 29, 2024 (BUSINESS WIRE) – PotlatchDeltic Corporation (Nasdaq: PCH) today reported net income of $13.7 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, on revenues of $320.7 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2024. Net income was $22.3 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, on revenues of $246.1 million for the ...
Everyone Wants Timberland Except The Public Market
Seeking Alpha· 2024-07-16 10:22
REITs are usually thought of as income investments. They pay reliable, high yields, often supported by contractual income. Tradingeconomics That is against an enterprise value of $24B, making it somewhere in the ballpark of a 10% NOI yield. The next decade Circled in yellow above is an accumulated deficit of homes. That decade long stretch of almost no building caused home inventory to fall well below comfortable levels. Eventually, this deficit will be made up. It was starting to happen until mortgage rate ...
Appia Earns Initial 10% Legal and Beneficial Interest in the PCH Project
Newsfile· 2024-06-12 11:30
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - June 12, 2024) - Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp. (CSE: API) (OTCQX: APAAF) (FSE: A0I0) (MUN: A0I0) (BER: A0I0) (the "Company" or "Appia") announced today that, further to its press release dated December 4, 2023, Appia has earned its initial 10% legal and beneficial ownership interest in Appia Brasil Rare Earths Mineracao Ltda (the "Appia Brasil") the Brazilian company that holds the PCH Project (the "Property") located in the Tocantins Structural Province of the Brasíl ...