Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is set to acquire Metsera for up to $10 billion, following a competitive bidding process with Novo Nordisk, which has raised the acquisition value significantly from an initial $4.9 billion to the final bid of $10 billion, valuing Metsera at $65.60 per share in cash plus a contingent value right worth up to $20.65 per share [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition process began on October 30 when Novo Nordisk made an unsolicited bid of $6.5 billion, which led to Pfizer increasing its offer to $8.1 billion before Novo raised its bid to $10 billion [5]. - Metsera's stock price peaked at $83.86 after its IPO in January, which was priced at $18 [5]. - The acquisition is expected to close promptly after the stockholder meeting scheduled for November 13, with Metsera expressing confidence in the merger's value for its shareholders [4]. Group 2: Product and Market Implications - Metsera's lead product is a GLP-1-mimicking injection, which is similar to Novo's Wegovy but may offer a monthly dosage compared to Wegovy's weekly administration [3]. - Pfizer aims to enhance its position in the obesity treatment market through this acquisition, especially after facing setbacks with its experimental drugs [6]. - The weight-loss drug market is projected to reach $150 billion by 2035, indicating significant growth potential in this sector [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 2.4% from November 3 to November 7, 2025, underperforming compared to the Wind All A index (0.63%) and the CSI 300 index (0.82%) [2][7] - The rise in flu activity was noted, with the percentage of flu-like illness (ILI) cases reported at 4.7% in the week of October 27 to November 2, 2025, indicating an increase compared to previous weeks and years [2][10] - The final overall survival (OS) results from the HARMONi-A study of Ivosidenib combined with chemotherapy for EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer showed a significant improvement in OS, with a median OS of 16.8 months versus 14.1 months for the control group [2][10] Weekly Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's performance was down 2.4%, with notable declines in medical research outsourcing (-4.93%), chemical preparations (-4.42%), and other biological products (-4.33%) [7][8] - The leading gainers included Hezhi China (61.1%), Wanze Shares (30.3%), and Fuxiang Pharmaceutical (23.3%), while Changshan Pharmaceutical (-20%), Yifang Bio-U (-17.8%), and Guangshengtang (-15.3%) were the biggest losers [10] Industry News and Key Company Announcements - On November 7, 2025, the final OS analysis of the HARMONi-A study was presented, showing significant results for Ivosidenib in combination with chemotherapy [10][12] - According to data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control, flu-like illness percentages in southern provinces increased to 4.6%, while northern provinces reported 5.1%, both higher than the previous week [10][12] - BeiGene reported a total revenue of $1.412 billion for Q3 2025, a 41% year-on-year increase, driven by a 51% growth in global sales of its product [12][14] - Metsera announced a merger agreement with Pfizer, with an estimated total transaction value of approximately $9 billion [12][14]

Pfizer won an obesity-drug bidding war after a US regulator warned Metsera against picking a rival offer from Novo Nordisk https://t.co/HkmuVOyoWV ...

Core Insights - Pfizer won a dramatic bidding war against Novo Nordisk for the weight loss drug manufacturer Metsera, acquiring it for $10 billion, which includes a competitive amylin drug pipeline [3][4] - Amylin drugs mimic the action of the pancreatic hormone amylin, differing from currently marketed GLP-1 drugs, but both types suppress appetite and reduce food intake [3][4] - Analysts believe that the future combination of GLP-1 and amylin therapies could enhance weight loss efficiency and quality [4][5] Industry Developments - Major pharmaceutical companies, including Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, and Roche, are developing amylin-targeting weight loss drugs [4][6] - Eli Lilly's amylin therapy, eloralintide, showed positive results in a mid-stage study, indicating potential for further development [4][5] - Novo Nordisk presented data at the 2025 EASD annual meeting showing that its amylin drug cagrilintide led to an average weight loss of approximately 12.5 kg in obese or overweight patients [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Roche has partnered with Zealand Pharma to develop long-acting amylin drugs, indicating a collaborative approach in the industry [6] - Experts suggest that while direct comparisons between GLP-1 and amylin therapies are not yet possible, they may offer different benefits for various patient populations [6] - In China, several biopharmaceutical companies are also developing next-generation amylin-targeting weight loss therapies, with notable advancements from companies like Genscript and Xianju Pharmaceutical [6]

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is re-entering the obesity-drug market after successfully countering a rival bid from Novo Nordisk for Metsera, leveraging additional financial resources and support from the Trump administration [1] Group 1 - Pfizer's acquisition strategy is focused on regaining a foothold in the obesity treatment sector [1] - The company faced competition from Novo Nordisk, indicating a competitive landscape in the obesity-drug market [1] - Support from the Trump administration may provide Pfizer with strategic advantages in this acquisition [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of $36.16, indicating a potential upside of 48.0% from the current price of $24.43 [1][3][16]. Core Insights - Pfizer maintains a leading position in the global pharmaceutical industry, with robust growth in its non-COVID core business, projected to grow by 12% year-over-year in 2024. However, the company faces a significant patent expiration wave from 2025 to 2028, with seven blockbuster drugs losing patent protection [1][7][19]. - The company has implemented an aggressive cost-cutting plan aiming to save $7.2 billion from 2024 to 2027, which has already shown positive results, with operating margins expected to rise significantly [5][8][15]. - Pfizer's innovative pipeline is being restructured, with several promising products expected to drive long-term growth, including Elrexfio, SSGJ-707, and MET-097i, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue by 2035 [9][10][11][15]. Financial Summary - Pfizer's revenue is projected to decline in 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 0.8%, 0.9%, and 5.8%, respectively, primarily due to the decrease in COVID-related product sales and the impact of patent expirations [2][15]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24 is estimated at $13.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 87% [2]. - The adjusted PE ratio for 2025 is forecasted at 8.05, with a dividend yield of 7.1%, indicating an attractive valuation [16]. Pipeline and Growth Potential - Pfizer's pipeline includes several high-potential candidates, with expected combined revenues reaching $44.2 billion by 2035, representing 46% of total revenue [9][15]. - Key products in the pipeline include: - Elrexfio, targeting multiple myeloma, with significant clinical advantages over competitors [10]. - SSGJ-707, a PD-1/VEGF dual antibody, expected to become a cornerstone product in oncology [11][12]. - MET-097i, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, showing promising weight loss results with fewer dosage increments [13][15]. Market Position and Challenges - Pfizer's market leadership is supported by a comprehensive capability from research to commercialization, but it faces challenges from the expiration of patents and the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on drug pricing [18][21]. - The company is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to bolster its product pipeline and mitigate risks associated with patent expirations and declining sales from older products [23][29].

Core Insights - Pfizer has acquired Metsera for $10 billion, which includes a competitive amylin drug pipeline, highlighting the intense competition in the weight loss drug market [1] - Amylin drugs mimic the action of the pancreatic hormone amylin, differing from GLP-1 drugs, but both aim to suppress appetite and reduce food intake [1] - Amylin receptor has been confirmed as an effective drug target, with amylin mimetics emerging as new therapies for obesity and diabetes [1] Group 1 - Major pharmaceutical companies, including Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, and Roche, are developing amylin-targeting weight loss drugs [2] - Eli Lilly's amylin therapy, eloralintide, showed positive results in a mid-stage study, helping obese or overweight patients lose over 20% of their weight in 48 weeks [2] - Novo Nordisk presented data on cagrilintide, showing an average weight loss of approximately 12.5 kg in a phase III trial for non-diabetic obese patients [2] Group 2 - Roche has partnered with Zealand Pharma to develop long-acting amylin drugs [3] - Experts suggest that while direct comparisons between GLP-1 and amylin therapies are not yet possible, they may offer different benefits for various patient populations [3] - Several domestic biopharmaceutical companies are also developing next-generation amylin-targeting weight loss therapies, with Gilead Sciences selecting ASC36 as a clinical candidate [3]

Core Insights - Olema Pharmaceuticals reported significant advancements in its clinical programs, particularly the initiation of the Phase 3 OPERA-02 trial for palazestrant in combination with ribociclib, positioning it as a potential leading therapy for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer [2][5] - The company ended the third quarter of 2025 with $329.0 million in cash and marketable securities, indicating a strong financial position to support ongoing clinical trials [7][8] Recent Progress - Olema announced a clinical trial agreement with Pfizer to evaluate palazestrant in combination with atirmociclib for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer [5][6] - The OPERA-01 trial, assessing palazestrant as a monotherapy, continues to enroll patients, with top-line data expected in the second half of 2026 [2][6] - The Phase 1/2 study of OP-3136 has expanded to include combinations with fulvestrant and palazestrant, reflecting strong investigator interest [2][6] Financial Results - The net loss for Q3 2025 was $42.2 million, an increase from $34.6 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to higher R&D expenses related to late-stage clinical trials [8][9] - GAAP R&D expenses for Q3 2025 were $40.0 million, up from $33.2 million in Q3 2024, driven by increased clinical development activities [9][10] - GAAP general and administrative expenses rose to $5.9 million in Q3 2025 from $4.4 million in Q3 2024, attributed to corporate-related costs [11][12] Anticipated Upcoming Events - The company plans to present a trial-in-progress poster for OPERA-02 at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium in December 2025 [6] - Initial clinical results for OP-3136 are expected to be reported in mid-2026, with top-line data from OPERA-01 anticipated in the second half of 2026 [6]

The Novo Nordisk headquarters in Bagsvaerd, Denmark. Metsera Inc. shares tumbled after Novo Nordisk A/S declined to further raise its offer for the US maker of an experimental weight-loss drug, bringing a bidding war with Pfizer Inc. to an end. Most Read from Bloomberg The shares slumped as much as 16% to $70.12 in US premarket trading. The stock more than quadrupled from its January initial public offering through Friday’s close. Novo, the maker of Wegovy and Ozempic, decided to drop out of the running ...

Welcome back to Squat Fox. Five things to know ahead of the opening bell. Fizer winning a bidding war for the obesity drug developer Metsera.Now Metser is accepting a sween offer from Fizer late Friday citing US antitrust risks from another bid by Novo Nordisk. Meanwhile, shares of Dagio, they're higher. The company has appointed the former CEO of UK grosser giant Tesco as its new CEO.Dave Lewis is going to be taking over at the start of 2026. and UPS and FedEx grounding their combined fleet now of more tha ...