Financial Performance - Network Volume increased by 14% from $2331 million in 2Q'24 to $2648 million in 2Q'25 [12] - Total revenue & other income increased by 30% from $250 million in 2Q'24 to $326 million in 2Q'25 [12] - Revenue from fees less production costs (FRLPC) increased by 30% from $97 million in 2Q'24 to $126 million in 2Q'25 [12] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 72% from $50 million in 2Q'24 to $86 million in 2Q'25 [12] - Net income attributable to Pagaya Technologies Ltd turned positive, from a loss of $75 million in 2Q'24 to a profit of $17 million in 2Q'25 [12] - Adjusted Net Income increased significantly by 604% from $7 million in 2Q'24 to $51 million in 2Q'25 [12] Operating Metrics - Quarterly Application Volume was $238 billion in 2Q'25, with a conversion rate of applications to issued loans of approximately 1% [35] - Investments in loans and securities totaled $870 million as of June 30, 2025 [44] - Securitization Certificates make up 62.9% of the total investments in loans and securities [44] FRLPC Evolution - FRLPC % increased from 4.2% in 2Q'24 to 4.8% in 2Q'25 [56] - The company is targeting FRLPC% in 2025 to be between 4% and 5% [17]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is set to announce its second-quarter 2025 earnings on August 7, with expectations of strong performance based on previous results [1][5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY's second-quarter revenues is $323.8 million, reflecting a 29.4% year-over-year increase [2][5] - The company has seen an 11.3% upward revision in earnings estimates for the upcoming quarter, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 69 cents [2][5] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Total revenues and other income for PGY are anticipated to be between $290 million and $310 million, supported by improved economics in personal loan and auto verticals [7][8] - Fee revenues are expected to reach $306 million, indicating a 25.9% year-over-year rise [4][5] - The network volume is estimated at $2.53 billion, which represents a 10% growth from the prior-year quarter [6] Earnings Surprise History - Pagaya has a mixed earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 12.9% [3][4] Growth Strategy - The company's growth strategy includes expanding product offerings, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships, and adding new enterprise lending partners, particularly large U.S. banks and auto captives [7][18] Market Performance and Valuation - PGY shares have outperformed the S&P 500 Index and key peers like LendingTree and LendingClub in the second quarter [11] - The stock is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) ratio of 5.00X, which is above the industry average of 3.58X [15][17] Business Model Resilience - Pagaya's business model is characterized by its adaptability, having diversified beyond personal loans into auto lending and point-of-sale financing, which reduces exposure to cyclical risks [18] - The company has established a robust network of over 135 institutional funding partners to support its asset-backed securities, enhancing liquidity stability [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article expresses a cautious optimism regarding Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY), indicating a willingness to invest based on calculated growth potential rather than high conviction due to the author's value investing approach [1]. Company Analysis - Pagaya Technologies is highlighted as a potential growth investment opportunity, with the author emphasizing a calculated approach to investment rather than a speculative one [1]. - The author has extensive experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, which informs the analysis of Pagaya's investment potential [1]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, focusing on macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis [1].

Core Insights - Wall Street analysts expect Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) to report quarterly earnings of $0.69 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 590% [1] - Revenue projections for the upcoming quarter are set at $323.83 million, which represents a 29.4% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating a stable reassessment by analysts [1][2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions to the stock, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [2] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts project 'Interest income' to reach $7.93 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 3.3% [4] - The estimate for 'Revenue from fees' is $306.43 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.3% [4] - The estimated 'Network Volume' is projected at $2.53 billion, up from $2.30 billion in the previous year [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. have increased by 31.4%, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a change of only 0.6% [4] - PGY currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting potential for outperformance in the near future [4]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. due to higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show quarterly earnings of $0.69 per share, reflecting a +590% change year-over-year, and revenues of $323.83 million, which is a 29.4% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts have not significantly altered their initial estimates during this period [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. has a positive Earnings ESP of +2.19%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects, combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 indicating a strong likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. exceeded the expected earnings of $0.4 per share by delivering $0.69, resulting in a surprise of +72.50%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13][14]. Conclusion - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, although investors should consider additional factors beyond earnings results when making investment decisions [17].

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) operates a capital-efficient model that minimizes credit risk and market volatility by avoiding holding loans on its balance sheet [1][3][11] - The company utilizes a network of institutional funding partners and focuses on issuing asset-backed securities (ABS) to manage its lending operations [1][2][11] Funding and Business Model - Capital raised in advance is held in trust and deployed only when a lending partner originates a loan through Pagaya's AI-driven network, ensuring loans are quickly acquired by pre-committed funding sources [2][4] - This off-balance-sheet model has proven effective during periods of high interest rates and market stress, allowing Pagaya to maintain financial flexibility [3][11] - The reliance on forward flow agreements provides a predictable source of capital, enhancing liquidity amid tightening credit markets [4][11] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, Pagaya reported $206.5 million in cash and short-term investments, alongside $507.8 million in debt, positioning the company for continued growth [5] - The stock has increased by 213% year-to-date, outperforming competitors like LendingTree and Upstart, which have gained 22.4% and 30.6% respectively [10][11] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Pagaya's stock trades at a 12-month forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.57X, significantly below the industry average of 3.41X, indicating a discount compared to peers [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY's earnings for 2025 and 2026 has increased to $2.51 and $3.18, reflecting year-over-year growth estimates of 202.4% and 26.7% respectively [17][18]

Core Insights - Identifying stocks that deliver strong returns can be challenging, and evaluating a company's liquidity serves as a reliable indicator of financial health [1] - High liquidity stocks are in demand due to their potential for maximum returns, but caution is advised as excess liquidity may indicate underutilization of resources [3][4] Stock Recommendations - Four top-ranked stocks recommended for portfolio consideration include Roku, Inc. (ROKU), DoorDash, Inc. (DASH), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), and Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) [2] Liquidity Measures - Current Ratio: Measures current assets relative to current liabilities; an ideal range is between 1 and 3 [5] - Quick Ratio: Indicates a company's ability to pay short-term obligations, with a desirable ratio of more than 1 [6] - Cash Ratio: The most conservative measure, focusing on cash and cash equivalents relative to current liabilities; a ratio greater than 1 is desirable but may indicate inefficiency [7] Screening Parameters - Asset Utilization: A measure of efficiency, calculated as total sales over the last 12 months divided by the average total assets; companies with a higher ratio than their industry are considered efficient [8] - Growth Score: A proprietary score added to ensure that liquid and efficient stocks have solid growth potential [9] Stock Performance Highlights - Roku, Inc. (ROKU): Leading TV streaming platform with a 17% year-over-year increase in Platform revenues to $881 million; The Roku Channel streaming hours up 84% year over year [12][13] - DoorDash, Inc. (DASH): Total orders increased 18% year over year to 732 million, with Marketplace GOV rising 20% to $23.1 billion [15][16] - Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): Advertising revenues increased 16.2% year over year to $41.39 billion; expects total revenues between $42.5 billion and $45.5 billion for Q2 2025 [18][19] - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY): Total revenues of $290 million increased 18% year over year; forecasted revenues between $290 million and $310 million for the current quarter [21][22]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) and OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) are consumer finance companies targeting subprime and non-prime borrowers, with Pagaya leveraging AI for credit underwriting and securitization, while OneMain operates through physical and digital lending channels [1][2] Group 1: Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) - Pagaya has a flexible business model that initially focused on personal loans but has since diversified into auto lending and point-of-sale financing, enhancing resilience across economic cycles [3] - The company has established a network of over 135 institutional partners and utilizes forward flow agreements to ensure funding stability during market disruptions [4] - Pagaya's proprietary technology allows lenders to present pre-approved offers to customers without formal applications, enhancing credit access with minimal marketing costs [5] - The company operates with minimal on-balance-sheet exposure, acquiring loans through asset-backed securities (ABS) or forward flow agreements, which limits credit and market risk [6] - Pagaya's model has proven effective from 2021 to 2023, maintaining liquidity and minimizing loan write-downs amid rising rates and tighter markets [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY's revenues indicates year-over-year growth of 23.6% in 2025 and 18.3% in 2026, with earnings expected to jump 202.4% and 26.7% in the same years [18] Group 2: OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) - OneMain operates 1,300 locations across 47 states, providing unsecured and secured personal installment loans for various personal needs, along with optional insurance products [8] - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a loan mix designed for sustainability and upside potential, frequently securitizing portions of its loan book to manage funding costs [9] - OneMain's rigorous underwriting and servicing, supported by centralized data analytics, help manage credit performance, even during economic downturns [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OMF's revenues implies a modest year-over-year increase of 7.4% in 2025 and 7.5% in 2026, with earnings growth projected at 26.4% for 2025 and 29.4% for 2026 [20] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Year-to-date, Pagaya's stock has surged 234.7%, while OneMain's has gained 13.5%, indicating stronger investor sentiment towards Pagaya [12] - In terms of valuation, Pagaya trades at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.34X, compared to OneMain's 2.15X, suggesting Pagaya is more expensive [13][14] - Pagaya's return on equity (ROE) stands at 20.88%, slightly above OneMain's 20.77%, indicating marginally better efficiency in generating profits [14] - Pagaya's compelling growth trajectory and strong revenue and earnings prospects position it as a high-upside investment opportunity compared to OneMain's established marketplace model [22][23]

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) closed the most recent trading day at $31.47, moving -2.27% from the previous trading session. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.4%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.47%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.24%. The company's stock has climbed by 65.04% in the past month, exceeding the Finance sector's gain of 3.3% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.61%.The upcoming earnings release of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. will be of great interest to in ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant interest in AI-based companies, particularly Palantir Technologies, which has seen its stock price increase by over 440% in the past year, despite a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 700 [1][2]. Company Overview: Palantir Technologies - Palantir utilizes AI to provide specialized services that create substantial value for its customers, leading to a strong demand for its offerings [2]. - The company operates in a niche market with high barriers to entry, contributing to sustained investor excitement despite its elevated valuation [2]. Company Overview: Pagaya Technologies - Pagaya is an AI-driven lending platform that assesses consumer credit using multiple data points, resulting in higher approval rates for loans [3]. - The company connects lenders and funding sources through a double-sided model and bundles loans into asset-backed securities (ABS) for institutional investors [3]. Recent Developments: Pagaya Technologies - Pagaya has established partnerships with notable lenders, including Visa and SoFi Technologies, and recently launched a buy now, pay later product called POSH [4]. - The first POSH deal is valued at $300 million and has received an AAA credit rating, involving 20 different investors [5]. Financial Performance: Pagaya Technologies - Pagaya has generated $2.8 billion in ABS deals in 2025 and raised $1 billion in funding for its POSH product [7]. - The company reported a revenue increase to $326 million, exceeding its forecast, with a network volume of $2.6 billion [11]. Market Position and Valuation: Pagaya Technologies - Pagaya's stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.2 and a price-to-sales ratio of 2.4, indicating it may be undervalued for a growth stock [12]. - The addressable market for Pagaya's lending services is estimated to exceed $800 billion, significantly larger than Palantir's $70 billion market for data analytics [14].