Financial Performance - Network Volume increased by 14% from $2331 million in 2Q'24 to $2648 million in 2Q'25 [12] - Total revenue & other income increased by 30% from $250 million in 2Q'24 to $326 million in 2Q'25 [12] - Revenue from fees less production costs (FRLPC) increased by 30% from $97 million in 2Q'24 to $126 million in 2Q'25 [12] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 72% from $50 million in 2Q'24 to $86 million in 2Q'25 [12] - Net income attributable to Pagaya Technologies Ltd turned positive, from a loss of $75 million in 2Q'24 to a profit of $17 million in 2Q'25 [12] - Adjusted Net Income increased significantly by 604% from $7 million in 2Q'24 to $51 million in 2Q'25 [12] Operating Metrics - Quarterly Application Volume was $238 billion in 2Q'25, with a conversion rate of applications to issued loans of approximately 1% [35] - Investments in loans and securities totaled $870 million as of June 30, 2025 [44] - Securitization Certificates make up 62.9% of the total investments in loans and securities [44] FRLPC Evolution - FRLPC % increased from 4.2% in 2Q'24 to 4.8% in 2Q'25 [56] - The company is targeting FRLPC% in 2025 to be between 4% and 5% [17]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is set to announce its second-quarter 2025 earnings on August 7, with expectations of strong performance based on previous results [1][5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY's second-quarter revenues is $323.8 million, reflecting a 29.4% year-over-year increase [2][5] - The company has seen an 11.3% upward revision in earnings estimates for the upcoming quarter, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 69 cents [2][5] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Total revenues and other income for PGY are anticipated to be between $290 million and $310 million, supported by improved economics in personal loan and auto verticals [7][8] - Fee revenues are expected to reach $306 million, indicating a 25.9% year-over-year rise [4][5] - The network volume is estimated at $2.53 billion, which represents a 10% growth from the prior-year quarter [6] Earnings Surprise History - Pagaya has a mixed earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 12.9% [3][4] Growth Strategy - The company's growth strategy includes expanding product offerings, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships, and adding new enterprise lending partners, particularly large U.S. banks and auto captives [7][18] Market Performance and Valuation - PGY shares have outperformed the S&P 500 Index and key peers like LendingTree and LendingClub in the second quarter [11] - The stock is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) ratio of 5.00X, which is above the industry average of 3.58X [15][17] Business Model Resilience - Pagaya's business model is characterized by its adaptability, having diversified beyond personal loans into auto lending and point-of-sale financing, which reduces exposure to cyclical risks [18] - The company has established a robust network of over 135 institutional funding partners to support its asset-backed securities, enhancing liquidity stability [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article expresses a cautious optimism regarding Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY), indicating a willingness to invest based on calculated growth potential rather than high conviction due to the author's value investing approach [1]. Company Analysis - Pagaya Technologies is highlighted as a potential growth investment opportunity, with the author emphasizing a calculated approach to investment rather than a speculative one [1]. - The author has extensive experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, which informs the analysis of Pagaya's investment potential [1]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, focusing on macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis [1].

Core Insights - Wall Street analysts expect Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) to report quarterly earnings of $0.69 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 590% [1] - Revenue projections for the upcoming quarter are set at $323.83 million, which represents a 29.4% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating a stable reassessment by analysts [1][2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions to the stock, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [2] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts project 'Interest income' to reach $7.93 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 3.3% [4] - The estimate for 'Revenue from fees' is $306.43 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.3% [4] - The estimated 'Network Volume' is projected at $2.53 billion, up from $2.30 billion in the previous year [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. have increased by 31.4%, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a change of only 0.6% [4] - PGY currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting potential for outperformance in the near future [4]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. due to higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show quarterly earnings of $0.69 per share, reflecting a +590% change year-over-year, and revenues of $323.83 million, which is a 29.4% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts have not significantly altered their initial estimates during this period [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. has a positive Earnings ESP of +2.19%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects, combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 indicating a strong likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. exceeded the expected earnings of $0.4 per share by delivering $0.69, resulting in a surprise of +72.50%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13][14]. Conclusion - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, although investors should consider additional factors beyond earnings results when making investment decisions [17].

Key Takeaways PGY avoids holding loans on its books by using ABS and forward flow deals to offload credit risks.The model helps PGY scale efficiently, preserve liquidity and limit exposure in volatile markets.The PGY stock has soared 213% YTD, trades at a discount to peers, and has rising earnings growth estimates.Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) , a leading fintech innovator, operates a capital-efficient model that largely avoids holding loans on its balance sheet, significantly reducing its exposure to cred ...

Core Insights - Identifying stocks that deliver strong returns can be challenging, and evaluating a company's liquidity serves as a reliable indicator of financial health [1] - High liquidity stocks are in demand due to their potential for maximum returns, but caution is advised as excess liquidity may indicate underutilization of resources [3][4] Stock Recommendations - Four top-ranked stocks recommended for portfolio consideration include Roku, Inc. (ROKU), DoorDash, Inc. (DASH), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), and Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) [2] Liquidity Measures - Current Ratio: Measures current assets relative to current liabilities; an ideal range is between 1 and 3 [5] - Quick Ratio: Indicates a company's ability to pay short-term obligations, with a desirable ratio of more than 1 [6] - Cash Ratio: The most conservative measure, focusing on cash and cash equivalents relative to current liabilities; a ratio greater than 1 is desirable but may indicate inefficiency [7] Screening Parameters - Asset Utilization: A measure of efficiency, calculated as total sales over the last 12 months divided by the average total assets; companies with a higher ratio than their industry are considered efficient [8] - Growth Score: A proprietary score added to ensure that liquid and efficient stocks have solid growth potential [9] Stock Performance Highlights - Roku, Inc. (ROKU): Leading TV streaming platform with a 17% year-over-year increase in Platform revenues to $881 million; The Roku Channel streaming hours up 84% year over year [12][13] - DoorDash, Inc. (DASH): Total orders increased 18% year over year to 732 million, with Marketplace GOV rising 20% to $23.1 billion [15][16] - Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): Advertising revenues increased 16.2% year over year to $41.39 billion; expects total revenues between $42.5 billion and $45.5 billion for Q2 2025 [18][19] - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY): Total revenues of $290 million increased 18% year over year; forecasted revenues between $290 million and $310 million for the current quarter [21][22]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) and OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) are consumer finance companies targeting subprime and non-prime borrowers, with Pagaya leveraging AI for credit underwriting and securitization, while OneMain operates through physical and digital lending channels [1][2] Group 1: Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) - Pagaya has a flexible business model that initially focused on personal loans but has since diversified into auto lending and point-of-sale financing, enhancing resilience across economic cycles [3] - The company has established a network of over 135 institutional partners and utilizes forward flow agreements to ensure funding stability during market disruptions [4] - Pagaya's proprietary technology allows lenders to present pre-approved offers to customers without formal applications, enhancing credit access with minimal marketing costs [5] - The company operates with minimal on-balance-sheet exposure, acquiring loans through asset-backed securities (ABS) or forward flow agreements, which limits credit and market risk [6] - Pagaya's model has proven effective from 2021 to 2023, maintaining liquidity and minimizing loan write-downs amid rising rates and tighter markets [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY's revenues indicates year-over-year growth of 23.6% in 2025 and 18.3% in 2026, with earnings expected to jump 202.4% and 26.7% in the same years [18] Group 2: OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) - OneMain operates 1,300 locations across 47 states, providing unsecured and secured personal installment loans for various personal needs, along with optional insurance products [8] - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a loan mix designed for sustainability and upside potential, frequently securitizing portions of its loan book to manage funding costs [9] - OneMain's rigorous underwriting and servicing, supported by centralized data analytics, help manage credit performance, even during economic downturns [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OMF's revenues implies a modest year-over-year increase of 7.4% in 2025 and 7.5% in 2026, with earnings growth projected at 26.4% for 2025 and 29.4% for 2026 [20] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Year-to-date, Pagaya's stock has surged 234.7%, while OneMain's has gained 13.5%, indicating stronger investor sentiment towards Pagaya [12] - In terms of valuation, Pagaya trades at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.34X, compared to OneMain's 2.15X, suggesting Pagaya is more expensive [13][14] - Pagaya's return on equity (ROE) stands at 20.88%, slightly above OneMain's 20.77%, indicating marginally better efficiency in generating profits [14] - Pagaya's compelling growth trajectory and strong revenue and earnings prospects position it as a high-upside investment opportunity compared to OneMain's established marketplace model [22][23]

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) closed the most recent trading day at $31.47, moving -2.27% from the previous trading session. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.4%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.47%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.24%. The company's stock has climbed by 65.04% in the past month, exceeding the Finance sector's gain of 3.3% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.61%.The upcoming earnings release of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. will be of great interest to in ...

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