Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantamental analysis, which combines data-driven models with fundamental research to identify strong companies with unique financial profiles [1] - The investment approach is structured, utilizing both top-down screening and bottom-up analysis, focusing on metrics like PEG ratios to evaluate potential investments [1] - The goal is to make in-depth research accessible to both retail and professional investors, ensuring a clear investment thesis is maintained [1] Company Analysis - The author expresses a potential interest in initiating a long position in PGY within the next 72 hours, indicating a favorable outlook on the company's stock [1] - There is no current ownership of stocks or derivatives in the mentioned companies, highlighting an unbiased perspective in the analysis [1] Industry Context - The article aims to share investment ideas and insights with a broader audience, contributing to the collective knowledge of both individual and professional investors [1]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:PGY) is highlighted as an overlooked tech stock with strong growth potential [1] - Citi maintains a "Buy" rating on Pagaya Technologies with a price target of $40, reflecting confidence in the company's operational strength and strategic execution [2] - The company reported a significant 36% year-over-year increase in total revenue for Q3, reaching $350 million, driven by a record network volume of $2.8 billion [3] Financial Performance - Pagaya's adjusted EBITDA grew by 91% to $107 million, resulting in diluted non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share of $1.02 [3] - The company experienced a 19% year-over-year growth in network volume during the quarter, indicating operational efficiency [2] - Credit impairments were reported to be well below expectations, further supporting the company's financial health [2] Strategic Outlook - The quarter marked a strengthening of the balance sheet, with diversification of funding through multiple ABS transactions and a $500 million corporate bond offering [4] - Management remains optimistic about sustained growth through expanding partnerships and increasing demand in point-of-sale and auto segments [4] - Pagaya Technologies leverages AI and machine learning to enhance accessibility in consumer credit and real estate financing [5]

Core Insights - TQI's Asymmetric Ideas Series has generated an average return of approximately 133% since its launch in April 2023, with 9 picks resulting in multi-bagger outcomes [1] Group 1: Company Overview - TQI was established in July 2022 with the mission to simplify, enhance enjoyment, and increase profitability in investing for all investors [1] - The company offers premium equity research reports on Seeking Alpha, along with features such as risk-optimized model portfolios, proprietary software tools, and group chats [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - TQI focuses on bold, active investing combined with proactive risk management to help members navigate the current asset bubble profitably [1] - The investing group provides highly-concentrated portfolios tailored to meet the needs of investors at different stages of their investment journey [1] Group 3: Communication and Resources - TQI publishes additional investing insights and research through various channels, including a free newsletter, Twitter, and LinkedIn [1]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies (PGY) stock is currently undervalued based on its price/sales (P/S) ratio compared to peers, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1][7] - The company's forward 12-month P/S ratio is 1.37X, significantly lower than the industry average of 3.19X, indicating potential for significant gains as the market recognizes its true value [2][8] Valuation Metrics - PGY's P/S ratio is lower than its historical highs over the past three years, suggesting undervalued trading [3] - Competitors such as Upstart Holdings (UPST) and Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT) have higher P/S ratios of 3.24X and 2.87X respectively, further highlighting PGY's attractive valuation [6] Business Model and Strategy - Pagaya has a diversified and resilient business model, expanding beyond personal loans into auto lending and point-of-sale financing, which reduces cyclical risk [9] - The company has established a network of over 135 institutional funding partners, utilizing forward flow agreements to secure funding and mitigate credit risk [10][16] - PGY's proprietary data and product suite, including a pre-screen solution, enhances customer relationships and expands credit access with minimal marketing costs [11][12] Financial Performance - Pagaya has shown strong performance in 2025, with a year-to-date stock increase of 196.9%, outperforming both the industry and the S&P 500 Index [19] - The company has achieved three consecutive quarters of positive GAAP net income, a significant turnaround from previous losses [17][18] Expense Trends and Earnings Outlook - Despite strong performance, PGY has experienced a compound annual growth rate of 26.2% in total costs and operating expenses over the past three years, primarily due to rising production costs [22] - Analysts have maintained earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 at $2.65 and $3.40 respectively, indicating a neutral outlook on earnings growth potential [24]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: PGY) is recognized for its AI infrastructure in the financial sector, with a focus on prudent underwriting and consistent execution [1] Financial Performance - On November 10, 2025, PGY reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, which fell short of the expected $0.65 [2][4] - The company's revenue for the quarter was $350.16 million, surpassing the forecast of $338.86 million and closely matching the previous quarter's revenue of $350.17 million [2][4] - PGY has consistently exceeded revenue estimates in the last four quarters and outperformed consensus EPS estimates in two of the past four quarters [4] Financial Ratios - The price-to-sales ratio is approximately 1.92, indicating that investors are paying $1.92 for every dollar of sales [3] - The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 2.08, suggesting that the company has more than twice as much debt as equity [3] - PGY maintains a current ratio of about 1.42, reflecting a reasonable level of liquidity to cover short-term liabilities [3][4]

Financial Performance - Revenue from fees for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $339,887 thousand, a 36.3% increase compared to $249,283 thousand for the same period in 2024[20] - Operating income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $184,112 thousand, significantly higher than $35,101 thousand for the same period in 2024, marking an increase of over 424%[20] - Net income attributable to Pagaya Technologies Ltd. for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $22,545 thousand, compared to a net loss of $67,476 thousand for the same period in 2024[20] - Comprehensive income attributable to Pagaya Technologies Ltd. for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $10,320 thousand, recovering from a loss of $86,858 thousand in the same period of 2024[22] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Pagaya Technologies reported a net income of $42.3 million, a significant improvement compared to a net loss of $188.6 million in the same period of 2024[26] - The company reported a net income (loss) before income taxes of $8,063 thousand for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a loss of $85,755 thousand for the same period in 2024[20] - Net income for the period ending September 30, 2025, was $47,093,000, while the comprehensive loss amounted to $34,580,000[24] - Total revenue and other income increased by $92.9 million, or 36%, to $350.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $257.2 million for the same period in 2024[203] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $1,455,376 thousand as of September 30, 2025, up from $1,291,072 thousand as of December 31, 2024, representing a growth of approximately 12.7%[17] - Total liabilities rose to $889,438 thousand as of September 30, 2025, compared to $775,276 thousand as of December 31, 2024, indicating an increase of approximately 14.7%[17] - As of September 30, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported a total equity of $535,835,000, with retained earnings showing a deficit of $896,950,000[24] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $218,314 thousand as of September 30, 2025, up from $187,921 thousand as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a growth of 16.2%[17] - The balance of redeemable convertible preferred shares decreased to $30,103,000 as of September 30, 2025[24] - The total number of ordinary shares outstanding increased to 80,127,904 as of September 30, 2025, reflecting an increase from previous periods[24] Expenses - Technology, data, and product development expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $56,135 thousand, slightly down from $57,970 thousand in the same period of 2024[20] - Share-based compensation expenses were reported at $44.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, slightly down from $45.9 million in the same period of 2024[26] - The company recognized share-based compensation expenses totaling $47,821,000 during the reporting period[24] - General and administrative expenses decreased from $57.8 million to $36.9 million, reflecting a reduction in personnel-related costs[208] - Sales and marketing costs for Q3 2025 increased by $3.0 million to $11.4 million, a 26% rise compared to Q3 2024[213] Cash Flow and Investments - The company generated $158.8 million in net cash from operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $19.9 million in the same period of 2024[26] - Pagaya Technologies' cash flows from investing activities resulted in a net cash outflow of $209.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to an outflow of $448.1 million in the same period of 2024[26] - The company reported additions to investments in loans and securities of $67,811,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $130,271,000 for the same period in 2024[116] - The company experienced a loss from investments in loans and securities amounting to $65.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $157.5 million in the same period of 2024[26] Debt and Financing - The Company issued $160 million of 6.125% Exchangeable Notes due 2029, with an effective interest rate of 8.7%[61][62] - The Company completed the issuance of $500 million Senior Unsecured Notes due 2030, accruing interest at 8.875% per annum[63] - The Company incurred a loss of $1.1 million related to the write-off of deferred issuance costs during Q3 2025[56] - The Company’s secured borrowings decreased to $131.5 million as of September 30, 2025, down from $176.1 million at the end of 2024[55] - Long-term debt increased to $487.8 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $321.3 million at the end of 2024, reflecting a 52% rise[55] Market and Economic Conditions - Macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, may affect consumer demand and the availability of funding from investors[176] - The Company has diversified its investor network, which is critical for growth, despite macroeconomic pressures such as high interest rates and inflation[178] - The company aims to enhance financial opportunities through its AI-powered technology and data network, targeting improved creditworthiness assessments for financial products[152] Shareholder Information - The weighted average shares outstanding for basic shares increased to 78,539,137 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to 72,728,667 for the same period in 2024[20] - Basic earnings per share increased to $0.27 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a loss of $0.93 for the same period in 2024[201] - The total shares of ordinary shares reserved for future issuance as of September 30, 2025, was 53,257,011, a slight decrease from 54,762,940 as of December 31, 2024[123] Regulatory and Compliance - The transition to "large accelerated filer" status will occur as of December 31, 2025, requiring compliance with additional disclosure requirements and auditor attestation[158] - The company is currently subject to federal tax audits in Israel and the U.S., with no material issues raised to date[145]

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Core Insights - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Nasdaq Composite increasing by over 400 points on Monday [1] - Pagaya Technologies Ltd reported better-than-expected third-quarter financial results and raised its FY25 sales guidance, leading to a significant increase in its stock price [1][2] Pagaya Technologies - Pagaya Technologies reported quarterly earnings of $1.02 per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 18 cents per share [2] - The company achieved quarterly sales of $339.887 million, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $338.947 million [2] - Following the earnings report, Pagaya Technologies shares surged by 17.4% to $28.72 [2] Other Notable Stock Movements - Cogent Biosciences Inc saw its shares jump by 133.3% to $34.57 after positive results from its Phase 3 PEAK study [4] - Sable Offshore Corp gained 30.3% to $6.96 following a $250 million private placement announcement [4] - Personalis Inc rose by 28.8% to $8.92 after announcing Medicare coverage for its ultrasensitive MRD test in breast cancer [4] - Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. surged by 27.6% to $2.45 after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results and raising its FY25 sales guidance [4] - Telos Corp's shares increased by 23% to $7.85 after reporting strong third-quarter results and issuing FY25 sales guidance above estimates [4] - TreeHouse Foods Inc jumped by 22.3% to $23.30 after announcing its acquisition by Investindustrial [4] - Village Farms International Inc gained 17.5% to $3.48 following better-than-expected quarterly earnings [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pagaya achieved consistent GAAP net income profitability, with an exit rate of over $120 million on an annual basis [5] - Network volume grew 19% year over year to a record $2.8 billion, with a 31% growth in personal loans [21] - Total revenue and other income rose 36% to a record $350 million, driven by fee revenue growth outpacing volume [21] - Adjusted EBITDA increased 91% to a record $107 million, with margins expanding 9 percentage points to 30.6% [22] - GAAP net income of $23 million represented a significant improvement from a net loss of $67 million in Q3 2024 [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal loans accounted for a significant portion of growth, with cumulative net losses trending approximately 35%-40% lower than peak levels in Q4 2021 [27] - Point of Sale (POS) volumes grew to about $1.4 billion, up from $1.2 billion last quarter [19] - Auto annualized volumes increased to $2.2 billion, up from $2 billion last quarter [19] - Multi-product partners represent only 30% of Pagaya's partners by number but contribute more than two-thirds of the volume [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pagaya issued $1.8 billion in ABS programs across four transactions during the third quarter [29] - The company raised $500 million in corporate debt and expanded its corporate revolver with four new major banks [9] - The demand for Pagaya's assets remained consistent and robust, with strong investor interest across all asset classes [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on product-led growth and enhancing its product offerings to solve fundamental challenges facing lenders and consumers [6] - Pagaya aims to become a necessary utility for every lender in the U.S. by deepening partner engagement and expanding its funding network [8] - The strategy includes institutionalizing relationships with lending partners through long-term agreements and product agreements [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate through economic cycles, emphasizing a disciplined approach to underwriting and risk management [20] - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with no significant deterioration in credit performance observed [56] - The company expects to maintain steady growth in personal loans and continued expansion in auto and POS products [32] Other Important Information - Pagaya introduced a new reporting line for Gains and Losses on Investments in Loans and Securities to enhance transparency [23] - The company ended the quarter with $265 million in cash and cash equivalents and $888 million in investments in loans and securities [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide perspective on credit quality and borrowers' ability to manage their credits? - Management stated that credit performance is well within expectations, reflecting a balanced and conservative underwriting approach [34][35] Question: How has risk retention changed with successful ABS issuances? - The company noted robust demand for origination and a diversified funding strategy, with a current mix of approximately 60-40% between ABS and other structures [41] Question: Can you discuss the differences between Pagaya's B2B model and traditional B2C lenders? - Management highlighted that Pagaya's B2B model allows for more stable growth without the fluctuations associated with B2C marketing spend [44][49] Question: What is the outlook for potential new asset classes? - Management indicated that home improvement credit is gaining traction, but any expansion will be approached with strict criteria to ensure market stability and partner interest [60][63]

分组1 - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported quarterly earnings of $1.02 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.62 per share, and showing an increase from $0.44 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +64.52% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $350.17 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.29%, and up from $257.23 million year-over-year [2] - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. has outperformed the S&P 500, with shares increasing approximately 163.2% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 14.4% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.70 on revenues of $359.25 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.65 on revenues of $1.31 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Financial - Miscellaneous Services is in the top 30% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8]