Group 1 - Seeking Alpha welcomes a new contributing analyst, Brock Liolios, encouraging others to share investment ideas for publication and potential earnings [1] - A finance student from the University of Georgia expresses a strong interest in public markets and aims to work in the hedge fund space, focusing on disciplined self-study and deep analysis of businesses [2] - The student emphasizes a bottom-up fundamental research approach, valuing process and sound judgment over fitting predefined investing labels [2] Group 2 - The student aims to produce transparency about assumptions and risks in their research, seeking to gain real experience and build a collection of work for future opportunities [2] - The article reflects the student's motivation and seriousness about learning the art of investing, welcoming feedback and professional connections [2] - The analyst discloses a beneficial long position in PGY shares, indicating personal investment interest [3]

Key Takeaways PGY will announce Q4 and 2025 earnings on Feb. 9, with revenues expected to rise 25% y/y.PGY's growth is driven by higher fee and interest income, and new partners.PGY shares fell 30% in Q4 and costs keep rising, tempering optimism despite its discounted valuation.Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter and 2025 earnings on Feb. 9, before market open.In the third quarter, PGY delivered a robust performance, with total revenues and other income increasing 36% year ...

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) experienced a daily increase of 1.75% to $19.73, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.54% [1] - The company has seen a decline of 12.97% in its share price over the past month, while the Finance sector has lost 0.18% and the S&P 500 has gained 0.74% during the same period [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is set to announce its earnings on February 9, 2026, with an expected EPS of $0.75, reflecting a significant increase of 341.18% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $348.35 million, indicating a growth of 24.68% year-over-year [2] Annual Projections - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $3.1 per share, representing a growth of 273.49%, while revenue is expected to remain stable at $1.32 billion [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates suggest a positive outlook for the company's business and profitability [3] Analyst Ratings and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Pagaya Technologies Ltd. as 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the last 30 days [5] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 5.69, significantly lower than the industry average of 11.7, indicating it is undervalued compared to its peers [6] Industry Context - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates within the Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, which holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 85, placing it in the top 35% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups, with top-rated industries historically outperforming lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Two key players in the consumer finance space targeting underserved credit segments are Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) and OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) with differing operating models and revenue streams [1] Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) - Pagaya operates on an AI-powered, capital-light platform, partnering with banks and lenders rather than holding large loan books [2] - The company has expanded its offerings from personal lending to include auto loans and point-of-sale financing, spreading risk across multiple asset classes [4] - PGY has established relationships with over 135 institutional investors and utilizes forward-flow agreements to enhance funding predictability [4][6] - In 2025, PGY achieved three consecutive quarters of positive GAAP net income, with a net income of $47.1 million compared to a net loss of $163.5 million in the prior year [7] - Credit-related impairment losses improved significantly, declining by over $95 million year-over-year, reflecting better-performing loan vintages and improved AI-driven underwriting accuracy [8] - PGY's return on equity (ROE) stands at 44.45%, indicating higher efficiency in generating profits compared to OMF's 22.70% [21] - Revenue growth estimates for PGY indicate increases of 28.4% and 19.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth estimates of 273.5% and 10% for the same years [24] OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) - OMF provides unsecured and secured personal installment loans through 1,300 locations across 47 states, focusing on debt consolidation and other large personal needs [10] - The company has experienced a revenue growth CAGR of 3.6% from 2019 to 2024, with continued momentum in 2025 [11] - OMF employs rigorous underwriting supported by centralized data analytics, maintaining a strong record of managing credit performance [12] - The company has raised dividends eight times since 2019, with a recent increase of 1% announced in October 2025, and has a $1 billion share repurchase program in place [13] - Revenue growth estimates for OMF indicate increases of 8.9% and 7.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth estimates of 36% and 19.1% for the same years [26] Comparative Analysis - In the past year, PGY's stock has surged by 117.1%, while OMF's stock has gained 19%, indicating stronger investor sentiment towards PGY [15] - PGY is trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.02X, compared to OMF's 2.30X, suggesting PGY is more expensive in terms of valuation [19] - PGY's AI-driven model shows stronger earnings growth prospects than OMF's traditional lending approach [9] - PGY's compelling growth trajectory and capital-efficient funding strategy position it as a high-upside investment opportunity compared to OMF's established marketplace model [30][31]

Group 1: Company Performance - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. achieved a 19% year-over-year increase in network volume to $2.8 billion and a 36% rise in total revenue to $350 million in Q3 2025, driven by a 31% growth in personal loans and expansions in auto and point-of-sale volumes [2] - Management expects full-year network volume between $10.5 billion and $10.75 billion and total revenue up to $1.325 billion, with current cash reserves projected to fund operations well into 2028 [3] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Pagaya is leveraging its B2B2C model to institutionalize long-term relationships, reporting the highest number of partners in its onboarding queue in company history, including up to 8 new partners across personal loans, auto, and POS asset classes [3] - The company is a product-focused technology firm that utilizes data science and proprietary AI-powered technology for financial services and other service providers in the US, Israel, and the Cayman Islands [4] Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - Keefe Bruyette reduced the price target on Pagaya to $35 from $38 while maintaining an Outperform rating, reflecting adjustments in consumer finance and payments groups [1] - Despite acknowledging Pagaya's potential as an investment, some analysts believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk [5]

Key Takeaways PGY runs an asset-light model, with most loans sold via ABS or forward flow deals.Capital is pre-raised and deployed only at origination, limiting PGY's credit exposure during market stress.This capital-efficient approach supports liquidity, scaling and less equity dilution.Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) operates a capital-efficient model that largely avoids holding loans on its balance sheet, significantly reducing its exposure to credit risk and market volatility. This is made possible throu ...

Core Viewpoint - Pagaya Technologies Ltd (NASDAQ: PGY) is rated as a Strong Buy due to its significant potential upside, with a base case return projected at 91% over the next 12 months, and a possible rally ranging from 50% to 100% [1] Investment Approach - The investment strategies employed include GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), Value, and Growth investing [1] - The analysis closely monitors insider buying and stock buybacks, as well as technical analysis tools such as Elliott Wave, EMA crossovers, and chart patterns [1]

Core Insights - Pagaya (PGY) has entered into a forward flow agreement with Sound Point Capital Management for the acquisition of up to $720 million in point-of-sale loans sourced through Pagaya's platform, marking its first forward flow transaction for the POS program [1] Group 1 - The agreement allows Pagaya to enhance its funding capabilities by securing a significant amount of capital for its point-of-sale loan offerings [1] - This transaction signifies a strategic partnership with Sound Point Capital Management, which may lead to further collaborations in the future [1] - The forward flow agreement is expected to improve Pagaya's operational efficiency and expand its market presence in the point-of-sale lending sector [1]

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KBRA assigns preliminary ratings to 15 classes of notes issued by Pagaya AI Debt Grantor Trust 2026-1 & Pagaya AI Debt Trust 2026-1 (collectively "PAID 2026-1†), an unsecured consumer loan ABS transaction. PAID 2026-1 has initial hard credit enhancement levels of 84.86% for the Class A-1 Notes to 2.33% for the Class F-2 Notes. Credit enhancement is comprised of overcollateralization, subordination (except for the Class F-2 Notes), cash reserve accounts funded at closing, and exc ...

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd (NASDAQ:PGY) is identified as a promising investment opportunity with a target price of $35, as reiterated by analysts at Citizens [1] - The company is recognized for its strong unit economics and operating leverage, leading to robust EBITDA margins and a gross profit margin of 42.43% [2] Business Model and Growth Strategy - Pagaya operates a B2B2C model that integrates directly into lenders' platforms, facilitating underwriting and turn-downs, which has resulted in significant growth through new lender additions [3] - The company is diversifying its offerings beyond personal loans into auto point-of-sale and other product verticals to enhance growth metrics [3] Strategic Partnerships - A strategic partnership with Achieve was established to enhance consumer access to personal loans by integrating Pagaya's AI-powered underwriting technology into Achieve's platform [4][5] - This collaboration aims to responsibly increase access to personal loans while supporting Achieve's long-term vision [5]