Financial Performance - Phillips 66 is expected to report fiscal Q2 earnings of $1.75 per share and sales of $32.1 billion, reflecting a 26% decrease in earnings and a 16% drop in sales compared to last year's figures of $2.38 per share and $38.1 billion [2] - In Q1, the company reported net earnings of $487 million, a significant increase from $8 million in Q4, with strong performance in midstream, chemical, and marketing segments offsetting losses in refining [2] - The current market capitalization of Phillips 66 stands at $51 billion, with total revenue over the past twelve months reaching $138 billion, and operating profits of $604 million alongside net income of $1.9 billion [2] Historical Trends - Historical data indicates that Phillips 66 stock has fallen 63% of the time on the day following earnings announcements, with a median decline of 2.5% and maximum one-day negative returns reaching 6% [2] - Over the past five years, there have been 19 earnings data points, with favorable one-day returns observed approximately 37% of the time, which increases to 45% when considering the last three years [4] - The median of the seven positive returns is 1.5%, while the median of the twelve negative returns is -2.5% [4] Correlation Analysis - A strategy to analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings announcements can help traders adjust their positions accordingly [3][5] - The correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns can be utilized to position trades effectively, especially if the 1D return is positive [5]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Phillips 66 (PSX) will report quarterly earnings of $1.63 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 29.4%, with anticipated revenues of $30.54 billion, a decrease of 21.5% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - Over the last 30 days, there has been an upward revision of 0.8% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating a collective reconsideration by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue and Key Metrics Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Sales and other operating revenues' to reach $30.66 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of -19.6% [5]. - The estimate for 'Equity in earnings of affiliates' is projected at $316.23 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 35.1% [5]. - 'Revenues and Other Income - Other income' is expected to be $41.52 million, showing a change of -28.4% from the prior-year quarter [5]. Refining Operations - 'Revenues - Total Refining' is expected to be $15.63 billion, indicating a significant increase of 69.9% from the prior-year quarter [6]. - 'Refining operations - Gulf Coast - Crude oil processed' is projected to reach 495.27 thousand barrels per day, down from 507.00 thousand barrels per day in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Refining operations - Atlantic Basin/Europe - Crude oil capacity' is expected to remain stable at 537.00 thousand barrels per day, consistent with the previous year's figure [7]. Global Refining Metrics - Worldwide crude oil processed is estimated at 1,751.92 thousand barrels per day, down from 1,802.00 thousand barrels per day year-over-year [8]. - 'Refining operations - Atlantic Basin/Europe - Capacity utilization' is forecasted to be 94.6%, down from 98.0% in the previous year [8]. - 'Refining operations - Atlantic Basin/Europe - Crude oil processed' is estimated at 508.20 thousand barrels per day, compared to 527.00 thousand barrels per day in the same quarter last year [9]. West Coast Operations - 'Refining operations - West Coast - Crude oil processed' is projected at 228.29 thousand barrels per day, slightly up from 227.00 thousand barrels per day in the previous year [10]. - 'Refining operations - West Coast - Capacity' is expected to remain at 244.00 thousand barrels per day, unchanged from the prior year [10]. - 'Refining operations - West Coast - Capacity utilization' is forecasted to be 93.6%, compared to 93.0% in the same quarter last year [11]. Stock Performance - Shares of Phillips 66 have increased by 4.2% over the past month, compared to a 5.9% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [12].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings reports from major companies in technology, energy, industrial, and consumer sectors will provide significant insights into corporate health and macroeconomic conditions [1]. Group 1: Technology Sector - Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) are the focal points among the "Seven Giants" in the technology sector, with other notable companies including Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW), IBM (NYSE: IBM), and NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ: NXPI) [1]. - Tesla is expected to report a 22% decline in profit and a 12% drop in revenue, with a 14% decrease in vehicle deliveries to 384,122 units [11][13]. - Google is anticipated to show strong double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, with a consensus revenue expectation of $22.36 billion and earnings per share forecasted at $0.40 [14][19]. Group 2: Telecommunications Sector - Verizon (NYSE: VZ) is set to report a 3% year-over-year increase in revenue and profit, with a consensus revenue expectation of $33.71 billion and earnings per share forecasted at $1.19 [4][5]. - Analysts maintain a cautious outlook on Verizon, with some suggesting a "hold" rating due to growth concerns, while others highlight its attractive valuation and stable dividend yield of 6.5% [4]. Group 3: Consumer Sector - Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) is expected to report earnings with a consensus revenue of $12.56 billion and earnings per share of $0.84, having exceeded earnings expectations in the past eight quarters [7][9]. - Analysts are divided on Coca-Cola's outlook, with some expressing concerns over its reliance on price increases rather than sustainable volume growth, while others emphasize its strong fundamentals and dividend stability [7]. Group 4: Energy Sector - Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) is projected to see a 27% decline in profit and a 17% drop in revenue, with earnings per share expected at $0.01 and revenue forecasted at $11.88 billion [23][25]. - Analysts maintain a "buy" rating for Phillips 66, citing its diversified business strength and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, despite concerns over high valuations relative to peers [23].

Core Viewpoint - Phillips 66 is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.63, reflecting a -29.4% change, and revenues expected at $30.54 billion, down 21.5% from the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for July 25, and the stock may rise if the actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.82% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight bullish sentiment among analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Phillips 66 is +4.25%, suggesting a higher Most Accurate Estimate compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which further supports the potential for an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Phillips 66 had a surprise of -16.88%, posting a loss of -$0.90 per share against an expected loss of -$0.77 [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Industry Context - Valero Energy, another player in the oil refining and marketing industry, is expected to report earnings of $1.76 per share for the same quarter, reflecting a -35.1% year-over-year change, with revenues projected at $27.84 billion, down 19.3% [18][19]. - Valero Energy also has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a similar potential to beat consensus EPS estimates [20].

Group 1 - iREIT+HOYA Capital focuses on income-producing asset classes that provide sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [1] - The strategy of buying and holding income-generating assets can enhance total returns compared to non-income producing growth stocks [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of dividends in boosting total returns [2] Group 2 - The content is intended for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice [3] - Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no specific investment recommendations are provided [4]

Investment Returns - The total return on the Fund's net asset value for the first half of 2025 was 2.3%, with dividends and capital gains reinvested [1] - The S&P Energy Sector and the S&P 500 Materials Sector had returns of 0.8% and 6.0%, respectively, while the benchmark (S&P 500 Energy Sector 80% and S&P 500 Materials Sector 20%) returned 1.8% [1] - The total return on the Fund's market price for the same period was 3.1% [1] Annualized Comparative Returns - For the 1-year period, the Fund's net asset value (NAV) decreased by 2.2%, while the market price increased by 1.7% [4] - Over 3 years, the NAV returned 10.7% and the market price returned 12.3% [4] - The 5-year returns were 21.2% for NAV and 22.1% for market price, while the 10-year returns were 6.1% for NAV and 6.8% for market price [4] Net Asset Value - As of June 30, 2025, the Fund's net assets were $634.74 million, down from $689.99 million a year earlier [6] - The number of shares outstanding increased to 26,888,697 from 25,453,641 [6] - The net asset value per share decreased to $23.61 from $27.11 [6] Largest Equity Portfolio Holdings - The top ten equity holdings accounted for 62.9% of net assets, with Exxon Mobil Corporation at 22.7% and Chevron Corporation at 11.5% [7] - Other significant holdings included ConocoPhilips (5.3%), Linde plc (4.7%), and EOG Resources, Inc. (3.8%) [7] Industry Weightings - The Fund's net assets were allocated primarily to the energy sector, with Integrated Oil & Gas at 35.1% and Exploration & Production at 19.8% [9] - Other allocations included Storage & Transportation (11.6%), Chemicals (13.6%), and Metals & Mining (3.6%) [10]

Company Performance - Phillips 66 (PSX) closed at $129.01, reflecting a -2.05% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.14% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Phillips 66 have appreciated by 7.83%, outperforming the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 2.89% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.97% [1] Upcoming Financial Results - Phillips 66 is set to announce its earnings on July 25, 2025, with an anticipated EPS of $1.62, representing a 29.87% decline compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $30.54 billion, down 21.51% from the prior-year quarter [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $4.17 per share and revenue of $122.7 billion, indicating changes of -32.2% and -15.67% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Stock Performance - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Phillips 66 indicate changing near-term business trends, with upward revisions reflecting analysts' positivity towards the company's operations [4] - A 2.34% decline in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month has resulted in Phillips 66 currently holding a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [6] Valuation Metrics - Phillips 66 has a Forward P/E ratio of 31.59, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 18.57 [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.11, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.74 [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 198, placing it in the bottom 20% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

A financial researcher and avid investor with a keen eye for innovation and disruption, as well as growth buy-outs and value stocks. Keeping an eye on the pace of high tech and early growth companies, I write about current events and the biggest news surrounding the industry, and strive to provide readers with ample research and investment opportunities.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PSX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this a ...

Strategy and Performance - Phillips 66's TSR outperformed its synthetic proxy peer median by 22% (67% vs 45%) since the 2022 CEO transition[18] - The company's integrated model results in a 39% higher return of capital to shareholders compared to its weighted proxy peer average over the last 10 years (646% vs 465%)[20, 21] - Phillips 66's average return on capital employed is 44% higher than its weighted proxy peer average over the last 10 years (107% vs 74%)[22, 23] - The company has a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in dividends[32, 36] - Phillips 66 has repurchased 35% of its initial shares outstanding since the 2012 spin-off[36] Refining - Phillips 66 aims to reduce refining costs to $550 per barrel by 2027[51] - The company reduced refining costs from $698 per barrel to $590 per barrel[50] - Every $050 per barrel of cost reduction is expected to improve adjusted EBITDA by approximately $315 million[66] Midstream - Phillips 66 projects Midstream adjusted EBITDA growth since 2021[78] - The company is projecting $975 million in Midstream capital spend in 2025[90] Chemicals - CPChem is expected to add approximately 7 million metric tons per annum (MMTA) of capacity through self-funded organic growth from 2017 to 2027[101, 143] - CPChem anticipates a 19% chain margin recovery by 2027[143] Synergies and Capital Allocation - Phillips 66 generates over $500 million in annual operating synergies through integration[106] - The company targets returning over 50% of net operating cash flow to shareholders[53, 114, 119]

Group 1 - Phillips 66 (PSX) is considering producing CARB gasoline at its Ferndale refinery to improve air quality and increase gasoline supplies in California [1][2] - The Ferndale refinery has a capacity of 105,000 barrels per day (bpd) and will begin producing CARB gasoline for delivery to northern and southern California following the closure of the Los Angeles refinery, which has a capacity of 139,000 bpd [2][3] - The company is collaborating with California Governor Gavin Newsom and regulatory authorities to maintain fuel supply in the state after the Los Angeles refinery shutdown [3] Group 2 - Valero Energy plans to shut down or restructure its Benicia refinery in California by April 2026, which may lead to reduced refining capacity and higher gas prices in the state [4] - The refinery closures are primarily due to regulatory policies aimed at achieving cleaner energy targets and reducing emissions [4]