Norbert Lou of Punch Card Management has the best portfolio in terms of value and risk assessment of the current market to date, in my opinion. He takes a bottom-up approach of a Berkshire (The author is a mechanical engineer. He holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering and an M.B.A in Finance. He employs evidence and factor-based investing in his personal portfolio.He will sometimes seculate for fun and take small positions in individual stocks he believes are trading at a discount.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we ...

Core Viewpoint - PayPal Holdings is a leading player in digital commerce with significant payment volume, yet its stock has underperformed, presenting a potential investment opportunity due to its low valuation and strong business fundamentals [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - PayPal operates in nearly 200 markets with a payments volume of $444 billion in Q2 [1]. - The stock is currently trading 77% below its peak from July 2021, indicating a significant decline in market perception [1]. - The company has an operating margin of 18.1% in Q2, an increase from 16.8% year-over-year, showcasing its profitability [5]. Group 2: Valuation - PayPal shares have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.9, which is notably lower than its historical average of 43.9 since its spin-off from eBay in July 2015 [3]. - This low valuation presents a substantial discount compared to the overall market, making it an attractive option for investors [3]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - PayPal operates a two-sided platform connecting merchants and consumers, creating a network effect that provides a competitive advantage [4]. - The company is characterized as a high-quality business, which mitigates the risk of being a value trap despite its low stock price [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Management anticipates generating $6 billion to $7 billion in free cash flow this year, which will be allocated for share buybacks, indicating confidence in future performance [5].

Group 1: PayPal - PayPal's second-quarter results met expectations, but a 49% drop in free cash flow caused a post-earnings dip, although the company did not change its free cash flow guidance for the fiscal year, suggesting a potential market overreaction [4][6] - The company ended the second quarter with 438 million active accounts, a 2% year-over-year increase, and reported a payment volume of $443.6 billion, a 5% increase compared to the same period last year [5] - PayPal's revenue grew 5% year over year to $8.3 billion, with non-GAAP EPS at $1.40, an 18% increase from the previous year [5] - The new CEO, Alex Chriss, is focused on improving profitability and has introduced new growth opportunities, including an advertising platform for businesses, leveraging PayPal's extensive user data [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for digital payment methods, driven by the e-commerce industry's expansion and a strong network effect [7] Group 2: Fiverr - Fiverr's platform is facing challenges with a decline in active buyers, down 10.9% year over year to 3.4 million, but revenue increased by 14.8% year over year to $108.6 million [8][9] - Despite fewer buyers, the spend per buyer rose to $318, a 9.8% increase from the previous year, indicating that Fiverr is retaining high-spending customers [10] - Fiverr's non-GAAP EPS was $0.69, a 19% increase from the year-ago period, showcasing strong financial results [10] - The rise of AI poses a threat to some freelance specialties, but it also creates demand for AI-related services, which Fiverr is capitalizing on by connecting businesses with qualified freelancers [11] - The underlying business remains sound, and the growth of the gig economy presents promising opportunities for Fiverr despite its current market performance [11]

https://t.co/I34lT8IVArDavid Weber (@webergems):Great thread and a big reason why @PayPal wants to stay agnostic here for the time being. $pyUSD is our horse to enable on all of the different payment chains so users can get access to global on/off ramps to local fiat. Stay tuned! ...

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) was last analyzed on July 17, with a recommendation of "Strong Buy" based on the assessment that the stock is undervalued [1] Group 1 - The analysis emphasizes actionable investment ideas derived from independent research [1] - The investment style promoted by the company aims to provide clear and unambiguous recommendations [1] Group 2 - The company claims to have assisted its members in outperforming the S&P 500 while avoiding significant losses during periods of high volatility in both equity and bond markets [2] - A trial membership is offered to potential investors to evaluate the effectiveness of the company's investment strategies [2]

Core Insights - PayPal, once a leader in digital payments, is facing significant competition from emerging players like Block, Apple Pay, and Google Pay, leading to a decline in market share and user engagement [1][2] - The rise of stablecoins, particularly USDC, poses a strategic threat to PayPal's core e-commerce payment business, as partnerships between e-commerce platforms and stablecoin providers are increasing [1][5][7] Financial Performance - PayPal's revenue is projected to grow from $27.52 billion in 2022 to $31.8 billion in 2024, with annual growth rates of 8.4%, 8%, and 7% respectively [2] - Despite stable revenue growth, PayPal's market capitalization has dropped to one-fifth of its peak value in 2021, indicating a disconnect between performance and stock price [2][4] Business Structure - PayPal's business is divided into two main segments: direct payment services (e.g., PayPal, Venmo) and technology services (e.g., Braintree) [2] - The direct payment segment is more profitable and strategically valuable, yet PayPal's transaction growth has increasingly relied on the technology-oriented Braintree segment, which is expected to rise from 33% to 44% of total transaction volume by 2025 [3] Market Share and User Engagement - PayPal's market share in the payment sector has decreased from 54.8% in 2020 to 40.29% in 2023, with online payment growth projected at only 4% in 2024, below the overall e-commerce growth rate of 6%-7% [3][4] - The number of active users decreased by 1 million from 2022 to 2024, and transaction frequency has also declined, with a 5% drop in transaction volume in Q2 [4] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with stablecoins offering lower transaction fees compared to traditional payment methods, which could marginalize PayPal's position in the e-commerce payment space [5][7] - E-commerce platforms are motivated to adopt stablecoin payments to bypass traditional financial transaction fees, further threatening PayPal's market dominance [7] Business Model Comparison - PayPal operates on a transaction-driven model, charging fees between 2.29% and 3.49%, while stablecoins utilize an asset-driven model that can avoid transaction fees, potentially eroding PayPal's market share [8] - Regulatory policies in the U.S. prevent stablecoins from paying interest to users, which may provide PayPal with a temporary buffer against the competitive threat posed by stablecoins [8]

Core Insights - The company is experiencing positive momentum and is encouraged by its progress over the last 1.5 years, particularly in terms of TM dollar growth [1] - The focus has shifted towards profitable growth, with significant efforts made to enhance operational efficiency and margin growth across various business segments [1] - Notable improvements have been observed in the processing and value-added services group, as well as in the growth of Venmo and branded checkout services [1] Company Performance - The company has been operating with increased focus and intensity on achieving profitable growth over the past two years [1] - There has been consecutive margin growth in the processing and value-added services group, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [1] - Venmo has shown acceleration in growth, contributing positively to the overall performance of the company [1] Strategic Focus - The company has prioritized profitable growth as a key strategic objective, which has led to different approaches across its various business lines [1] - The emphasis on enhancing branded checkout services reflects the company's commitment to improving customer experience and driving revenue [1]

Core Insights - PayPal and Venmo customers will have early access to Perplexity's AI-powered Comet browser, along with a free 12-month trial of Perplexity Pro valued at $200 [1][8] - The Comet browser features an integrated AI assistant, answer-focused search, and product comparisons [2] - PayPal's new subscription hub allows U.S. customers to manage recurring payments and access special deals [3][4] Company Developments - Perplexity Pro is the first offer available through PayPal's subscription hub, enhancing user experience by allowing easier subscription management [3] - PayPal's management emphasizes the importance of delivering tools that meet customer needs for convenience and rewards [5] Market Performance - PayPal's shares have gained 0.2% over the past six months, contrasting with a 1.2% decline in the industry [6]

Industry Overview - Mobile payments have evolved into a comprehensive financial ecosystem, driven by fintech innovation and smartphone adoption, with global fintech investment reaching $44.7 billion in H1 2025 despite economic challenges [2] - The global mobile payments market was valued at $3.84 trillion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $4.97 trillion in 2025, with an expected surge to $26.53 trillion by 2032, reflecting a 27% CAGR [4] Key Players - Capital One is enhancing its mobile payments capabilities through a digital-first banking platform and a robust credit card network, integrating with digital wallets like Apple Pay and Google Pay [5][7] - PayPal serves 438 million active accounts globally, leveraging unmatched transaction data to provide merchants with insights that enhance customer loyalty and sales [8] - Marqeta's next-gen card issuing platform supports businesses in embedding digital payments into their applications, with a 29% year-over-year increase in total processing volume to $91 billion in Q2 2025 [13] - NCR Voyix is innovating in mobile payments for retail and restaurant sectors, with solutions that improve speed and customer experience, achieving a 16% year-over-year growth in platform sites [16] Technological Innovations - Emerging technologies like blockchain and AI are enhancing transaction transparency, processing speed, and fraud mitigation [2] - PayPal's "Tap to Pay" feature utilizes NFC technology to convert smartphones into contactless payment terminals, facilitating seamless mobile e-commerce [10] - Marqeta's open API architecture allows for customizable payment experiences, supporting real-time processing and secure interactions [12] Market Trends - The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the demand for contactless payment solutions, prompting regulatory responses focused on data privacy and financial inclusion [4] - The rise of "super apps" like WeChat Pay and Alipay is transforming consumer behavior by integrating various services into a single platform [2] - The growth of e-commerce and improved digital infrastructure are significant factors driving the adoption of mobile payments [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market may be overvalued, but some stocks are mispriced and undervalued due to underestimated future potential [1][2] Group 2: Carnival Corporation - Carnival Corporation (CCL) shares are trading below pre-pandemic levels due to significant debt taken on during COVID-19, amounting to nearly $26 billion in long-term obligations [4][5] - Despite the debt, Carnival reported $12.1 billion in revenue for the first half of the fiscal year, with operating income of nearly $1.5 billion and net income of almost $500 million, comparable to pre-pandemic performance [6][8] - Revenue for the quarter ending in May increased nearly 10% year over year, with customer deposits for future cruises reaching a record high of $8.5 billion [7][8] - The cruise industry is expected to see steady single-digit growth for at least the next four years, positioning Carnival well to capture market share [8] Group 3: Uber Technologies - Uber Technologies (UBER) shares have risen over 300% from 2022's lows but remain attractively priced at over 30 times this year's expected earnings of around $3 per share [10][11] - The global ride-hailing market is projected to grow at an average annualized rate of over 11% through 2033, indicating strong growth potential for Uber [11] - A cultural shift is occurring where younger generations are less interested in car ownership, favoring ride-hailing services like Uber [12][13] - Uber's delivery segment is growing even faster than its ride-hailing services, with the same-day delivery market expected to grow at an average annual rate of 21% through 2033 [14] Group 4: PayPal - PayPal (PYPL) has seen a significant decline, with shares dropping over 80% from its 2021 peak, but it remains a leader in the digital payments space [15][16] - The company plans to launch PayPal World, integrating various payment platforms to facilitate cross-border payments, and is adopting AI solutions for customer service [18] - PayPal shares are priced at less than 14 times this year's expected earnings of $5.21, suggesting that risks are already factored into the stock price [19]