Group 1: Company Achievements - Rigetti Computing achieved significant hardware milestones in 2025, including the demonstration of the industry's largest multichip quantum computer and the introduction of a 100+-qubit chiplet system with 99.5% fidelity [1] - The company secured commercial success with two orders totaling $5.7 million for its Novera quantum computing systems, to be delivered in the first half of 2026, and a three-year $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory for developing a superconducting quantum network [2] - Rigetti became one of the first companies to join Nvidia's NVQLink platform, which integrates quantum computers with artificial intelligence supercomputers [2] Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - Rigetti was not selected as one of the first 11 companies by the U.S. government's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency for the second phase of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, which aims to assess the progress towards building a fault-tolerant quantum computer [3] - Despite having fast superconducting qubits, Rigetti's 99.5% fidelity is considered error-prone, with data scientists recommending that error-reducing techniques should not be introduced until hardware reaches 99.9% fidelity [4] - The company is experiencing cash burn and has minimal revenue, making it a highly speculative stock with significant risks [5][6] Group 3: Industry Comparison - IBM is transforming into a quantum-computing-first company, supported by its legacy business, and is not treating quantum computing as a side project like some competitors [8]

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks, particularly Rigetti Computing, have seen significant interest in 2025, driven by the potential of quantum technology to solve complex problems in various fields [1][3] - Despite the excitement, many quantum computers, including those from Rigetti, still face high error rates, hindering their practical application [2] - Rigetti's stock has more than doubled in the past year, reaching a market capitalization of $8.5 billion, but concerns about its revenue and valuation suggest a potential decline in 2026 [3][14] Company Overview - Rigetti Computing, founded in 2013, has developed a vertically integrated supply chain, including its own fabrication facility for quantum chips and a proprietary quantum programming language called Quil [5] - The company has created a cloud computing platform for businesses to access quantum computing resources, which enhances its competitive edge [5] - Rigetti's Cepheus-1-36Q multichip quantum computer boasts a high fidelity of 99.5%, indicating its potential for practical applications [6][8] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Rigetti generated only $5.2 million in revenue, a 39% decrease from the same period in 2024, raising concerns about its financial sustainability [9] - The company reported a net loss of $198 million during the same period, with ongoing increases in operating expenses despite declining revenues [11] - Rigetti has secured purchase orders that could generate $5.7 million in revenue in the first half of 2026, providing a potential for growth [10] Valuation Concerns - Rigetti's stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1,010, which is deemed unsustainable compared to industry peers like Nvidia and Palantir Technologies [14][16] - The significant premium on Rigetti's valuation, combined with its minimal revenue and substantial losses, raises red flags for investors [16] - The stock has already decreased by 53% from its peak in October, and further declines are anticipated if the company fails to scale its quantum systems [16]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with a notable decline of around 60% from its October high, despite being up approximately 50% year-to-date [1][2]. Company Performance - Rigetti Computing's stock price is currently at $24.50, with a market capitalization of $8.1 billion [6]. - The stock has a 52-week range of $5.95 to $58.15, indicating substantial fluctuations in value [6]. - The company has a gross margin of -6849.48%, highlighting financial challenges [6]. Industry Context - The quantum computing industry is still in its early stages, with significant potential for growth, projected to exceed $100 billion by 2035 according to McKinsey & Company [7]. - The market is crowded with various players, including private companies and established tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft [4]. Funding and Contracts - Rigetti relies heavily on external funding and must secure research contracts to maintain operations, as it lacks a legacy business to support its financial needs [8]. - A critical contract opportunity is with DARPA, which Rigetti did not advance in, unlike competitors such as IonQ and IBM [9][10]. Future Outlook - The potential for Rigetti's stock to rebound in 2026 is contingent on the broader market's risk appetite and the company's ability to secure significant contracts [12]. - Investors are advised to focus on the best-performing quantum computing startups, as the complexities of the industry make it challenging to identify winners without expert guidance [11].

Industry Overview - Quantum computing is attracting investor interest due to its potential for significant commercial disruption and long-term technological ambition [1] - The industry is in early stages, but progress in optimization, simulation, and advanced analytics is becoming clearer [1] Company Strategies - Rigetti Computing focuses on superconducting, gate-based quantum processors and aims for fault-tolerant systems through a modular "chiplet" approach [5][10] - IonQ utilizes trapped-ion technology, emphasizing qubit quality and customer traction, with a clearer commercialization narrative [6][12] Price Performance - Rigetti's stock has increased by 118.3% over the past six months, while IonQ's stock has risen by 25.7% during the same period [3] Business Models - Rigetti's revenue model is heavily reliant on research-driven customers, including government agencies and early enterprise pilots, which may not stabilize revenue [8] - IonQ is focusing on commercialization by making its systems accessible through cloud platforms, allowing for a monetization strategy based on customer usage [9] Growth Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year decline of 26.88%, with a projected loss per share of 68 cents [14] - In contrast, IonQ's 2025 sales are expected to grow by 151.78%, with a projected loss per share of $5.08 [17] Investment Considerations - Rigetti is seen as a longer-term investment focused on hardware scalability, while IonQ offers a more immediate path to usability and customer adoption [13][22] - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a Value Score of F, indicating that their stocks are priced based on future potential rather than current fundamentals [20]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is leveraging a vertically integrated superconducting quantum computing stack, which includes in-house chip design, fabrication, packaging, and full-system deployment through Quantum Cloud Services, allowing for faster iterations and reduced reliance on third-party foundries [1][7] - The company's roadmap emphasizes modular scaling and integration with government labs, universities, and early enterprise customers, enhancing the relevance of its systems as use cases mature [2][7] - Rigetti's strategy indicates improved survivability and adaptability in the pre-scale phase of quantum computing, suggesting that vertical integration can provide a tangible scaling advantage over time [3] Peers Updates - Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) reported a significant third-quarter 2025 performance with revenue increasing approximately 280% year over year, indicating early commercial traction for its photonics-based quantum machines [4] - Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) focuses on quantum cybersecurity through its QuantumCloud platform, recently expanding customer contracts and updating revenue guidance to indicate meaningful growth [5] Financial Performance - Rigetti's shares have increased by 133.7% over the past six months, contrasting with a 5.1% decline in the industry [6] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 23.52, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 earnings suggests an 88.9% decline from the previous year, with current estimates indicating a loss of $0.68 per share for the current year [10][11]

We recently published Santa Came Early for These 10 Double-Digit Gainers. Rigetti Computing Inc. (NASDAQ:RGTI) is one of the best performers on Monday. Rigetti Computing saw its share prices jump by 13.13 percent on Monday to close at $26.88 apiece, mimicking a broader market rally, supported by the quarterly and year-end window-dressing. The practice is common among institutional investors, who tweak their portfolios ahead of the reporting periods by piling into strong performers and cutting exposure to ...

Citron Research, led by Andrew Left, is doubling down on its quantum computing pick, noting that it has successfully transitioned from being a conceptual science project to a commercial reality.This Is No Longer ‘A Science Project’On Monday, in a post on X, Left reiterated his bullish stance on Infleqtion (NASDAQ:CCCX) , a neutral atom quantum technology company, citing its collaboration with French aeronautics giant, Safran SA, for GPS-independent timing solutions for “mission-critical systems.”Left said I ...

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks gained significant attention in 2025, with Rigetti Computing set to outperform IonQ, achieving a year-to-date gain of nearly 50% compared to IonQ's 15% [1] Company Analysis: IonQ - IonQ's potential advantage lies in its trapped-ion technology, utilizing actual ytterbium and barium atoms, which are more stable and can lead to fewer errors in quantum computing [4] - The company aims to build a comprehensive quantum computing ecosystem, similar to Nvidia's approach in AI infrastructure, by making aggressive acquisitions in quantum sensing, interconnect, satellite, and semiconductor technology [5] - IonQ has a strong financial position with a significant cash reserve to fund research and development, and its revenue grew over 200% in Q3, reaching nearly $40 million [6] Company Analysis: Rigetti Computing - Rigetti's technology is noted for being faster than IonQ's but is also more error-prone, indicating a trade-off between speed and reliability in their quantum computing solutions [7]

Group 1 - Pure-play quantum computing stocks gained significant attention from Wall Street in 2025 as major financial institutions initiated coverage on several companies [1] - Heading into 2026, IonQ (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) received the most buy ratings and the highest average price targets from Wall Street analysts [1] - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is receiving mixed reviews from analysts, indicating a less favorable outlook compared to its peers [1]

Core Insights - The quantum computing investment landscape has experienced significant volatility, with stocks initially selling off in early 2025 but later showing upward momentum before declining again in October due to reduced market risk appetite [2][16] - IonQ and Rigetti Computing have both seen substantial declines from their October highs, with IonQ down approximately 43% and Rigetti down about 60% [3] - The success of quantum computing stocks in 2026 will largely depend on the market's risk appetite rather than the companies' actual technological advancements [15][16] Company Analysis - IonQ utilizes trapped ion qubits, which offer high fidelity and accuracy, achieving a notable 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, significantly surpassing competitors using superconducting qubits [9][7] - Rigetti Computing employs superconducting qubits but has struggled to close the gap with IonQ, facing challenges in securing research contracts that are crucial for long-term viability [11][12] - IonQ's leadership in the trapped ion approach positions it favorably, but it must establish a strong market foothold before competitors potentially catch up in accuracy and speed [10][17] Market Dynamics - The Quantum Benchmarking Initiative by DARPA aims to identify quantum technologies that can operate cost-effectively at a commercial scale, with IonQ selected for Stage B while Rigetti was not [12][14] - The current market for quantum computers is limited, primarily consisting of research contracts, which makes winning these contracts essential for companies like IonQ and Rigetti [11] - The volatility of quantum computing stocks is influenced by broader market conditions, with speculative valuations making them sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment [15][16]