Company Overview - Rigetti Computing is a quantum computing pure play focused solely on developing quantum computing products, which presents both high potential rewards and risks of failure [4] - The company reported revenue of $1.9 million in the third quarter, with operating losses amounting to $20.5 million, indicating a significant imbalance typical for early-stage companies [4] Financial Position - As of November 6, Rigetti Computing has approximately $600 million in cash and equivalents, allowing it to sustain its current operational spending for multiple years without needing external funding [5] Competitive Landscape - The quantum computing sector is highly competitive, with Rigetti Computing facing strong rivals that have substantial funding, making the development of a commercially viable quantum computer challenging [3] - Rigetti was not selected for a significant DARPA contract after participating in an earlier trial, suggesting it is lagging behind competitors in the race for government contracts [6][7] Market Sentiment - Investors are cautious about Rigetti Computing due to its exclusion from key contracts and the competitive nature of the quantum computing field, preferring to invest in leading companies within the sector [7][8]

Group 1: Rigetti Computing - Rigetti Computing's current market capitalization is $7.7 billion, with a current stock price of $23.45, reflecting a daily change of -6.05% [2][5] - The company reported $5.2 million in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, which is a 39% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [3][4] - Rigetti announced two sales in October 2025 that are expected to generate $5.7 million in revenue, but this revenue will not be recognized until the first half of 2026 [4][5] - Analysts predict that Rigetti will miss revenue forecasts of $7.6 million for Q4 2025 and will likely not achieve a reduction in net losses as expected [5] Group 2: D-Wave Quantum - D-Wave Quantum has a market capitalization of $9.0 billion and a current stock price of $25.63, with a daily change of -6.56% [6][10] - The company reported less than $22 million in revenue through the first three quarters of 2025, despite a more than three-fold increase in sales compared to previous years [7][8] - Analysts estimate that D-Wave will end 2025 with total revenue below $26 million and no profit, raising concerns about its high market capitalization [9][10] - The stock is viewed as driven more by hype than by substantial earnings, with expectations of profitability not forecasted before 2030 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing is experiencing significant challenges in the quantum computing sector, particularly regarding accuracy and technology advancement, despite a recent rise in stock price and some positive analyst ratings [1][8]. Company Performance - Rigetti's stock price has seen a notable increase of over 45% in 2025 and more than 10% in 2026, but current market sentiment suggests caution [1][2]. - The current stock price is $23.45, with a market capitalization of $7.7 billion [2]. Technology and Competitiveness - Rigetti's quantum computing systems are reported to be over 1,000 times faster than those of competitor IonQ, but the company struggles with accuracy, achieving a two-qubit gate fidelity of only 99.5%, compared to IonQ's 99.99% [2][4]. - The company has not advanced to Stage B of the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative by DARPA, indicating a setback in its technological standing [5]. Challenges in Quantum Computing - Quantum computing systems, including those from Rigetti, are highly error-prone due to the instability of qubits, which are susceptible to external factors like vibrations and temperature changes [3]. - Rigetti's delay in launching its new 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system is aimed at improving its error rate, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving reliable performance [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Some analysts have expressed optimism about Rigetti, with Rossenblatt Securities initiating coverage with a "buy" rating and B. Riley upgrading the stock following an $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing [7]. - Despite these positive mentions, the overall assessment suggests that Rigetti remains significantly behind its competitors in the quantum computing race [8].

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGTI) is recognized as one of the best quantum computing stocks to buy for 2026, with a "Buy" rating initiated by Rosenblatt analyst John McPeake and a price target of $40 [1] - The company has revised its roadmap for its 108-qubit quantum computing system, Cepheus™-1-108Q, now expected to be generally available by the end of Q1 2026, aiming for 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity [2] Group 1 - The modular approach to qubit scaling and the internal fab strategy are key strengths of Rigetti Computing [1] - Collaboration with Riverlane, a leading quantum error correction partner, is seen as promising for medium- to long-term prospects [1] - Rigetti is an integrated systems company focused on building quantum computers and superconducting quantum processors [3] Group 2 - The company acknowledges that building higher-qubit-count systems may present new challenges [3]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing has seen a significant stock increase following an $8.4 million order from India's C-DAC for a 108-qubit quantum system, with potential for further growth to $50 in the next 12-18 months if certain conditions are met [2][3] Group 1: Recent Developments - Rigetti's stock rose approximately 5% on January 22 after the C-DAC order, contributing to an 85% increase over the past year [2] - The company achieved nearly 99.5% fidelity on their 36-qubit systems and has outlined a strategy for over 1,000 qubits, which could be a catalyst for future growth [3] Group 2: Potential Catalysts for Growth - The order pipeline is crucial, with the C-DAC deal expected to open avenues into India's supercomputing sector, potentially doubling revenue visibility by 2026-27 [6] - Achieving reliable 100+ qubit fidelity and scaling systems by mid-2026 could attract partnerships and validate current high valuations [6] - Wall Street analysts are beginning to take notice, with B. Riley issuing a Buy rating and a $35 target, and Wedbush setting a $40 target, which could trigger FOMO buying [6] - Rigetti has $600 million in cash from 2025 fundraising, allowing for R&D financing without significant dilution [6] - Sector momentum in quantum computing could position Rigetti as a leading player if competitors face challenges [6] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Execution risk is significant; failure to scale qubits or meet deployment deadlines could lead to a loss of market trust [6] - Competition from major players like Google and IBM poses a threat, as they have greater financial resources [6] - Rigetti's fundamentals show concerning negative margins around -4,700%, and any disappointing financial reports could lead to sharp sell-offs [6]

Core Insights - Quantum computing is gaining investor interest as a transformative technology, with practical applications emerging in various fields such as optimization and logistics, despite the industry's early stage and uncertain timelines [1] Group 1: Company Approaches - Rigetti Computing focuses on gate-based superconducting quantum processors, aiming for fault-tolerant quantum computing through improvements in chip design and architecture [2][5] - D-Wave Quantum adopts a commercially oriented strategy with quantum annealing systems, emphasizing immediate customer adoption and recurring revenue [2][7] Group 2: Price Performance - Rigetti's shares have increased by 47.2%, while D-Wave's stock has risen by 41.6% over the past six months, indicating strong investor interest in both companies [3][6] Group 3: Technology Strategy - Rigetti is committed to a chiplet-based architecture to enhance manufacturing efficiency and scalability, focusing on long-term fault tolerance [5][10] - D-Wave's annealing systems are designed for specific optimization tasks, allowing for practical applications and generating recurring revenue through cloud services [7][9] Group 4: Business Models - Rigetti's revenue primarily comes from government contracts and research collaborations, leading to unpredictable revenue streams [8] - D-Wave's business model is centered around quantum computing as a service, with a focus on subscriptions and long-term customer relationships, providing clearer visibility into revenue trends [9] Group 5: Growth Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Rigetti's 2026 sales to grow by 197.6%, with a loss per share of 18 cents [13] - D-Wave's 2026 sales are estimated to grow by 61.1%, with a projected loss per share of 19 cents [16] Group 6: Investment Profiles - Both Rigetti and D-Wave currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating that neither stock is seen as a value play at this time [18] - Rigetti has a Growth Score of C and a Momentum Score of F, while D-Wave has a Growth Score of F and a Momentum Score of B, reflecting differing investor sentiments [19] Group 7: Investor Considerations - Investors seeking near-term momentum may prefer D-Wave due to its clearer commercialization narrative, while those with a long-term perspective may favor Rigetti for its focus on technological execution [20]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing is a significant player in the quantum computing industry, focusing on the development of quantum integrated circuits and software, with the market projected to generate up to $1 trillion in global economic value by 2035 [1] Stock Performance - On January 22, 2026, B. Riley upgraded Rigetti's stock from Neutral to Buy, with the stock priced at $23.67, reflecting growing investor confidence in the company's potential [2] - Despite the upgrade, Rigetti's stock price has decreased by 5.28%, or $1.32, from its previous value, indicating market volatility [3] - The stock has fluctuated between $22.41 and $26.27 today, with a significant yearly volatility range of a high of $58.15 and a low of $6.86 [3] Market Capitalization and Trading Activity - Rigetti's market capitalization is approximately $7.81 billion, highlighting its substantial presence in the quantum computing industry [4][5] - The trading volume today is 47.47 million shares, suggesting active investor interest in the stock [4]

Core Insights - The first-mover advantage for pure-play quantum computing stocks may be more precarious than investors realize, with significant risks associated with this emerging technology [1] - Quantum computing stocks have seen dramatic gains, with IonQ up 670% and Rigetti Computing soaring over 6,200% over the trailing 12 months as of mid-October 2025, indicating the long-term potential of quantum computers [2] - Despite the excitement, quantum computing faces monumental headwinds that could disrupt the current rally for stocks like IonQ and Rigetti [3] Market Opportunity - Quantum computing is viewed as a $450 billion to $850 billion addressable opportunity by 2040, with The Quantum Insider projecting a global value of $1 trillion by 2035 [5] - The technology can be applied in various fields, including drug development, cybersecurity, AI algorithm enhancement, and weather modeling [6][7] - Significant future investments are anticipated, exemplified by JPMorgan Chase's $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative, which includes quantum computing [6] Adoption and Competition - Early-stage adoption of quantum computing is being observed among major companies like Amazon and Microsoft, which offer access to quantum computers through their cloud services [8] - However, quantum computing has not yet achieved broad-based commercialization, and current players like IonQ and Rigetti are still years away from solving practical problems more cost-effectively than classical computers [11] - The barrier to entry in quantum computing is minimal, posing a risk to early-stage innovators [12] Competitive Landscape - Companies like Alphabet and Microsoft are making significant advancements in quantum computing, with Alphabet's Willow quantum processing unit achieving a quantum algorithm performance approximately 13,000 times faster than the fastest supercomputer [14] - Alphabet has substantial financial resources, with $98.5 billion in cash and marketable securities, allowing aggressive investment in quantum computing initiatives [15] - Microsoft also has a strong financial position and has introduced its Majorana 1 QPU, which can scale to 1 million qubits [17] Sustainability Concerns - IonQ and Rigetti have not yet demonstrated sustainable operating models or sufficient cash flow to achieve recurring profitability, raising concerns about their long-term viability [18] - The competitive landscape suggests that larger companies could easily overshadow IonQ and Rigetti, making their current high valuations risky [18]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is confident in achieving a 1,000-plus qubit system by 2027, primarily due to its chiplet-based architecture, which is now delivering measurable results rather than being a theoretical concept [1][8] Company Progress - The company is advancing from 9-qubit chiplets to 36-qubit chiplets, which serve as the foundational building block for larger systems, allowing for scaling qubit counts while mitigating yield and complexity risks associated with monolithic chips [2][8] - Current 36-qubit chiplet systems exhibit nearly 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity, which bolsters management's confidence in expanding to 150 qubits by 2026 and beyond [2][8] Modularity and Execution Risk - Rigetti is utilizing repeatable, modular units that can be manufactured, tested, and improved independently, which lowers execution risk and maintains flexibility as the company aims to enhance fidelity [3] - The approach to reaching 1,000 qubits is characterized as a series of controlled steps rather than a speculative leap, making the timeline appear increasingly achievable [3] Industry Peers Updates - IonQ (IONQ) has expanded its collaboration with the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information to deploy a next-generation 100-qubit IonQ Tempo quantum system, integrating it into South Korea's National Quantum Computing Center of Excellence [4][5] - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) has achieved a significant milestone with scalable on-chip cryogenic control for gate-model quantum computers, addressing major barriers to large-scale quantum systems and enhancing the practicality of gate-model architectures [6] Price Performance and Valuation - Rigetti's shares have increased by 59.3% over the last six months, contrasting with a 13.8% decline in the industry [7] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 22.74, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 earnings indicates a significant 88.9% decline from the previous year [11]

Industry Overview - The quantum computing market is projected to grow from $3.52 billion in 2025 to $20.20 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 41.8% [1] - Key drivers of this growth include advancements in hardware, increased cloud-based accessibility, and rising investments from both private and public sectors [1][2] Government Initiatives - Government agencies are crucial in driving R&D funding and industry collaboration through initiatives like the US National Quantum Initiative Act and the EU Quantum Flagship Program [2] Key Players - Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) are identified as significant players in the quantum computing market [2] Technological Challenges - The quantum computing market faces technological hurdles such as qubit interconnection, decoherence, and external noise, which limit applications and scalability [3] Company Performance: QUBT - QUBT reported third-quarter revenues of $384,000, driven by R&D contracts and initial cloud access revenues [8] - The company raised $500 million in gross proceeds during the third quarter and an additional $750 million post-quarter, ending with $352 million in cash and cash equivalents [10] - QUBT's manufacturing strategy involves phased production through Fab 1 and Fab 2, aimed at scaling operations and improving margins [7] Company Performance: RGTI - Rigetti reported total revenues of $1.9 million in the third quarter, supported by government contracts and cloud-based services [12] - The company ended the quarter with $446.9 million in cash and no debt, indicating a strong financial position [13] - Rigetti's Fab-1 facility allows for end-to-end control over manufacturing, enhancing its ability to innovate and capture market opportunities [11] Financial Projections - For 2025, QUBT's loss per share is projected to be 15 cents, an improvement from a loss of 73 cents per share the previous year [14] - RGTI's loss per share is projected to be 68 cents, compared to a loss of 36 cents the prior year [17] Price Targets - The average price target for QUBT is $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 39.6% from the last closing price [20] - Rigetti's average price target is $37.56, suggesting a 52.1% upside from the last close [22] Conclusion - QUBT's integrated manufacturing strategy and early commercial traction position it well for growth in the quantum computing market [24] - Rigetti's full-stack approach and strong government contracts highlight its potential for innovation and long-term value [24][25]