Group 1: Market Performance - Quantum computing stocks have seen significant gains since Q3 2024, with Rigetti Computing rising 4,330%, D-Wave Quantum increasing 3,330%, and IonQ climbing 812% [1][7] Group 2: Company Valuations - IonQ has a market cap of $22.4 billion, trading at 303 times trailing sales, with an estimated 2026 revenue of $162 million [4] - D-Wave Quantum has a market cap of $12.6 billion, trading at 335 times trailing sales, with an estimated 2026 revenue of $38.2 million [5] - Rigetti Computing has the highest valuation at 1,111 times trailing sales, with a market cap of $11.5 billion and an estimated 2026 revenue of $21.5 million [6] Group 3: Technology and Market Dynamics - Major technology platforms and government agencies are investing billions in quantum computing, indicating a shift from research to commercialization [7] - Unlike dot-com companies, quantum companies currently have working technology and paying customers [7]

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks are experiencing volatility as they approach their third-quarter earnings reports, with most companies still unprofitable while striving to advance the technology [1][2] Earnings Expectations - Investors are focusing on revenue growth for quantum computing stocks in Q3, with some also looking for smaller losses [2] - IonQ is expected to report a loss of $0.44 per share, widening from a loss of $0.26 a year earlier, while revenue is projected to grow 5118% to $27 million [3] - D-Wave is anticipated to record a 6-cent loss in Q2, improving from a 10-cent loss a year earlier, with revenue expected to grow 62% to $3 million [3] - Rigetti is expected to post a 5-cent loss in Q3, improving from an 18-cent loss a year earlier, but revenue is predicted to dip 9% to $2.2 million [5] - Quantum Computing is expected to report a 6-cent loss per share, with revenue rising 16% to $100 million [6] Market Dynamics - Quantum computing stocks are volatile due to uncertainties surrounding commercialization and competition from major tech companies like Cisco Systems, which is entering the quantum networking space [7] - As of October 31, 2025, D-Wave stock has increased by 285%, IonQ shares are up 19%, Rigetti has advanced about 121%, while Quantum Computing has pulled back 11% [8] Stock Behavior Metrics - Investors should monitor the average true range (ATR) of quantum computing stocks, which indicates the volatility of stock prices [10] - IonQ has the lowest ATR rating at 9.67%, followed by Rigetti at 13.21%, D-Wave at 14.02%, and Quantum Computing at 11.84% [10]

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Core Viewpoint - Quantum computing stocks, particularly Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, have seen significant price increases, but analysts believe they are overvalued after substantial gains [1][2]. Rigetti Computing - Rigetti specializes in superconducting quantum computing, utilizing electrical circuits at near absolute zero temperatures to create qubits [3]. - The company has a vertically integrated model, manufacturing processors, designing software, and providing cloud-based services [3]. - Rigetti's gate-based systems are considered to have less immediate commercial value compared to D-Wave's annealing systems, although they may address more complex problems as the technology matures [4]. - In Q2, Rigetti's sales fell 42% to $1.8 million, and the GAAP net loss tripled to $40 million, with operations consuming $30 million in cash year-to-date [5]. - Rigetti's stock trades at an extremely high valuation of 1,253 times sales, suggesting a potential downside of 54% from its current price of $39 [6]. - Analysts have set a target price of $18 per share for Rigetti, indicating a significant downside risk [7]. D-Wave Quantum - D-Wave focuses on superconducting quantum computing and has historically excelled in annealing systems, which are effective for optimization problems [8]. - The company has recently ventured into gate-based systems but lacks vertical integration as it does not manufacture its own processors [9]. - D-Wave's quantum annealing systems currently have more commercial utility than Rigetti's gate-based systems, although scaling gate-based systems remains challenging due to high error rates [9]. - D-Wave reported a 42% increase in revenue to $3.1 billion in Q2, but the non-GAAP net loss was $0.08 per diluted share [10]. - The stock trades at 384 times sales, which, while lower than Rigetti's valuation, is still considered expensive, leading to a plausible downside of 41% from its current price of $34 [11].

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential downturn for quantum computing stocks, highlighting that historical valuation metrics indicate a significant reversal may be imminent for companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. [1][4][18] Industry Overview - Quantum computing is emerging as a transformative technology, with applications across various sectors, including drug development and AI optimization [6][10]. - The technology is still in its infancy, and widespread commercialization is not yet evident, suggesting that it may take years for businesses to realize returns on investments in quantum computing [11]. Company Performance - Over the past year, IonQ's stock has increased by 270%, while Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. have seen gains of 3,220%, 3,270%, and 1,340%, respectively [4]. - Current market capitalizations for these companies are significant, with IonQ at $21 billion and Rigetti at $14 billion [8][16]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is identified as a more relevant valuation metric for early-stage companies like those in quantum computing, as traditional price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are less applicable due to negative earnings [14]. - Historical data shows that leading companies in emerging technologies have peaked at P/S ratios between 31 and 43, while current P/S ratios for quantum computing stocks are projected to be much higher, ranging from 69 to 352 by 2027 [15][17][19]. - This suggests that the current valuations of quantum computing stocks are unsustainable, indicating a potential for significant price corrections in the future [18].

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Core Insights - IonQ and Rigetti Computing are key players in the quantum computing sector, with upcoming Q3 2025 earnings releases expected to provide insights into their market positions and financial health [1][3] - IonQ has shown strong commercial traction, new government contracts, and expanded partnerships, while Rigetti has made progress in system deliveries and product development but faces challenges with revenue recognition and operating losses [2][3] IonQ Overview - IonQ is well-positioned with strong cash reserves, strategic partnerships, and a solid technology roadmap, which is expected to bolster investor confidence ahead of its Q3 earnings release on November 5, 2025 [6] - In the last reported quarter, IonQ's revenues exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 21.6%, with a $1 billion equity raise increasing pro-forma cash to $1.6 billion [7][10] - The company has expanded its global presence through partnerships, which are anticipated to positively impact Q3 revenues [8] - IonQ aims for large-scale fault-tolerant systems, targeting 800 logical qubits by 2027 and 80,000 by 2030, although the Q3 impact of this ambition is expected to be minimal [9] - IonQ projects Q3 revenues between $25 million and $29 million, reflecting a 117.9% year-over-year increase, while full-year revenues are expected to range from $82 million to $100 million [10][11] Rigetti Overview - Rigetti's recent updates include new system deliveries and progress on its QCS and Novera platforms, but it has faced significant revenue declines and operating losses [2][3] - In the last reported quarter, Rigetti's revenues fell by 41.6% year-over-year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.7% [12] - The company successfully launched the Cepheus-1-36Q multi-chip system, achieving a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5%, which is expected to enhance future performance [13] - Rigetti's gross margin decreased to 31% from 64% year-over-year, attributed to revenue mix and pricing variability in development contracts [14] - Rigetti anticipates Q3 revenues of $2.39 million, indicating a slight 0.4% year-over-year growth [17] Comparative Analysis - IonQ appears to have a stronger market visibility and balance sheet compared to Rigetti, which has potential for upside if its technology execution leads to faster commercialization [3][19] - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a balanced risk-reward profile, but IonQ is viewed as the stronger investment option due to its liquidity and growth prospects [19]

Core Insights - Quantum computing is a high-stakes frontier with potential to revolutionize various industries, presenting early investment opportunities in a potentially trillion-dollar market [1] Company Analysis Rigetti Computing (RGTI) - Rigetti's shares have surged 142.9% year-to-date, significantly outperforming IonQ's 36.8% gain [5][8] - The company is advancing a superconducting-qubit, modular chiplet architecture, targeting a 100+ qubit system by the end of 2025, with a recent achievement of a 36-qubit system and a median two-qubit gate fidelity of approximately 99.5% [6][12] - Rigetti's revenue model is heavily reliant on government and research contracts, including a $5.8 million contract with the Air Force Research Laboratory [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 sales implies a year-over-year decline of 19.65%, with a projected loss per share of 9 cents [15] IonQ (IONQ) - IonQ is focusing on trapped-ion quantum systems, recently achieving a two-qubit gate fidelity exceeding 99.99%, which reduces error-correction burdens [7][13] - The company is executing a platform-expansion strategy through acquisitions, including the $1.07 billion acquisition of Oxford Ionics, aimed at enhancing its capabilities [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IonQ's 2025 sales implies a year-over-year growth of 115.1%, with a projected loss per share of 97 cents [18] Comparative Analysis - Rigetti's approach emphasizes near-term milestones and government backing, while IonQ's strategy focuses on long-term platform vision and ecosystem expansion [14][22] - Rigetti holds a Growth Score of C and a Momentum Score of A, indicating improving sentiment, whereas IonQ has a Growth Score of F and a Momentum Score of D, reflecting cautious expectations [22] - Both companies currently carry a Zacks Value Score of F, indicating premium pricing in the emerging quantum sector [21]

Group 1 - Quantum concept stocks experienced a rise on Wednesday, with IONQ Inc (IONQ.US) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US) both increasing by over 6.4% [1] - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US) also saw a significant increase of over 6.4%, while Quantum Computing (QUBT.US) rose by more than 3% [1]

Core Insights - Government stakes in quantum computing companies could pose risks for investors, despite the excitement surrounding the technology [5][10][11] - Quantum computing stocks have seen significant price increases, indicating strong investor interest [2][3] - The potential applications of quantum computing are vast, including drug development and cybersecurity [3] Group 1: Government Involvement - The Trump administration is reportedly considering equity stakes in quantum computing firms like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum, which could lead to dilution of existing shares [5][9] - Government stakes may prioritize political interests over the long-term health of these companies, potentially impacting their operations and strategies [10][11] - Previous instances of government equity stakes in other sectors have raised concerns about the implications for public companies [8] Group 2: Market Performance - Quantum computing stocks have experienced remarkable returns over the past year, with IonQ up 284%, Rigetti Computing up 3,140%, D-Wave Quantum up 2,760%, and Quantum Computing Inc. up 1,310% [2] - Despite the impressive growth, these companies are expected to continue losing money and burning cash through 2028, indicating a challenging financial outlook [7] Group 3: Valuation Concerns - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for leading quantum computing stocks are extraordinarily high, with IonQ at 263, Rigetti Computing at 1,243, D-Wave Quantum at 375, and Quantum Computing Inc. at 7,322 [20] - Historical trends suggest that high valuations in emerging technologies often lead to significant market corrections, raising concerns for current investors [19][20] - The technology remains in its early stages, and widespread commercialization may take years, which could affect stock performance [16]