Core Insights - Rigetti Computing's update on its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system indicates a focus on performance discipline, delaying general availability to late Q1 2026 for further testing and optimization to achieve 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity [1][9] Company Updates - Rigetti has demonstrated 99% median two-qubit fidelity on the 108-qubit system and higher fidelities on its 9-qubit and 36-qubit platforms, indicating that the technical foundation is solid despite the delay [2][9] - The complexity of scaling modular quantum systems is highlighted, with the Cepheus-1-108Q system comprising 12 9-qubit chiplets connected via tunable couplers, leading to new engineering challenges [3] - Rigetti's decision to refine chiplet couplers suggests a commitment to launching a system that meets performance benchmarks rather than rushing to market [3][4] Market Position - The timeline adjustment may enhance Rigetti's credibility with partners and customers who value reliable quantum performance, positioning the update as a strategic recalibration for long-term value creation [4] - Rigetti's shares have increased by 99.9% over the last six months, contrasting with a 7.6% decline in the industry [8] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Rigetti trades at a price-to-book ratio of 22.66, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 earnings indicates an 88.9% decline from the previous year [12]

Investor Presentation January 2026 Cautionary Notes Forward Looking Statements: Certain statements in this presentation may be considered forward-looking statements, including statements with respect to the Company's outlook and expectations, including expectations with respect to a plan to deliver 108Q chiplet-based system at 99.5% median 2Q gate fidelity around the end of Q1 2026 and to reach 1,000+Q at 99.9% median 2Q median fidelity at <50 ns gate speed in 3-5 years to enable quantum advantage; an antic ...

Core Insights - AST SpaceMobile is positioned to experience significant revenue growth, with projections indicating a 1,200% increase in sales to $57.3 million in 2025, followed by a further 311% growth to $235.6 million in 2026 [4] - The company's strategy of partnering with over 50 global mobile network providers, covering nearly 3 billion cellular subscribers, is expected to facilitate a rapid increase in revenue without the need to build a competing network [2] - AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellites aim to provide 4G and 5G services using existing smartphone technology, offering a seamless transition for wireless operators and potentially revolutionizing global broadband coverage [3] Group 1: Company Overview - AST SpaceMobile's current valuation stands at $33.3 billion, which raises concerns about the potential for error in its high-growth projections [7] - The company has successfully secured partnerships with major wireless operators, which is crucial for its growth strategy [2] Group 2: Market Context - The stock market has seen substantial gains, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 45%, 78%, and 122% respectively from the beginning of 2023 to the end of 2025 [6] - The overall market sentiment is driven by the performance of growth stocks and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and quantum computing [6]

Company Overview - Rigetti Computing specializes in quantum computing hardware and cloud-based quantum services, utilizing proprietary superconducting technology to deliver scalable quantum solutions [7] - The company generates revenue through integrated solutions that allow clients to access quantum computing resources on various cloud infrastructures [1] Recent Transaction - On January 2, 2026, Dr. Alissa Fitzgerald, a Board member, sold 59,316 shares of Rigetti Computing for approximately $1.3 million, at a weighted average price of $22.41 per share [5][6] - This sale reduced her direct ownership by 63.1%, leaving her with 34,675 shares, which is about 9.3% of her holdings as of February 2024 [3][5] Historical Context - The recent sale size is more than double Dr. Fitzgerald's recent median sell size of 25,000 shares and is the largest since June 2025 [4] - Dr. Fitzgerald's holdings have declined by over 90% since February 2024, indicating a sustained pattern of depletion [5][3] Market Performance - Rigetti's stock has appreciated over 150% in the past year, driven by investor interest in the quantum computing sector [9] - Despite this growth, the company reported sales of only $1.9 million in the third quarter of the previous year, down from $2.4 million in 2024 [10] Future Outlook - The company faces challenges as quantum computing is still in its infancy, with technical hurdles such as high calculation error rates hindering mass adoption [10] - Rigetti missed the release of its new Cepheus-1-108Q system, which has been delayed to the end of Q1 2026 [10]

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks, including IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc., are experiencing significant hype and price increases, but historical trends suggest a potential bubble burst in the near future [3][6][22] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The quantum computing sector is projected to contribute up to $850 billion to global GDP by 2040, creating a substantial addressable market that has driven stock prices up dramatically [4][6] - Since October 1, 2024, the stock prices of IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. have surged by 521%, 3,270%, 3,290%, and 1,790% respectively, indicating extreme investor enthusiasm [5][6] Group 2: Financial Considerations - Early-stage quantum computing companies are expected to face operating losses and cash burn, leading to share-based dilution as a common practice for raising capital [7][9] - IonQ raised $2 billion through a stock offering, selling shares at $93, which has since decreased to $50.76, highlighting the risks of dilution for existing investors [8] Group 3: Valuation Challenges - Traditional valuation metrics are difficult to apply to early-stage companies with no earnings, but the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio can provide insights; historical data shows that P/S ratios above 30 are unsustainable [11][12] - Current P/S ratios for leading quantum computing stocks indicate they remain in bubble territory, suggesting potential for significant price corrections [13] Group 4: Market Environment - The overall stock market is currently at a high valuation, with the S&P 500's Shiller P/E Ratio nearing 41, which historically signals potential downturns for high-priced stocks [15][16] - Volatility in the market tends to disproportionately affect the most expensive stocks, which could include quantum computing companies that have not yet proven their business models [17] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The barrier to entry in the quantum computing industry is lower than perceived, with established tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft developing their own quantum technologies, posing a threat to current players [18][21] - The first-mover advantage held by current quantum computing companies may be eroded as larger firms with more capital and resources enter the market [20][21]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing is revising its roadmap and adjusting the general availability date for its 108-qubit quantum computing system, Cepheus™-1-108Q, now expected by the end of Q1 2026 [1] Group 1: System Development and Performance - The company is making strong progress with Cepheus-1-108Q but is taking additional time to test and optimize the system to meet performance standards [2] - Rigetti aims to achieve a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5% and has reported current fidelities of 99% for the 108-qubit system, 99.7% for the 9-qubit system, and 99.6% for the 36-qubit system [2] - Cepheus-1-108Q is based on twelve 9-qubit chiplets and utilizes Rigetti's proprietary modular chip architecture, making it the highest qubit count system to date and the largest modular quantum computing system in the industry [2] Group 2: Technology and Infrastructure - Rigetti's quantum computers are based on superconducting qubits, which are considered the leading qubit modality due to their maturity, scalability, and fast gate speeds [3] - The current gate speeds for Rigetti's quantum computing systems range from 50-70 nanoseconds, which is approximately 1,000 times faster than other modalities like ion traps and neutral atoms [3] - The company operates quantum computers via its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services (QCS) platform, providing high-performance integration with public and private clouds for practical quantum computing [4] Group 3: Product Offerings - Rigetti sells on-premises quantum computing systems ranging from 9 to 108 qubits, supporting national laboratories and quantum computing centers [5] - The 9-qubit Novera QPU is designed for high-performance, on-premises use, allowing integration with existing cryogenic and control systems [5] - Rigetti developed the industry's first multi-chip quantum processor for scalable systems and deployed the largest multi-chip quantum computer in 2025 with Cepheus-1-36Q [6]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing's stock experienced a dramatic rise followed by a significant decline, raising questions about its future performance and potential as an investment opportunity [1][2]. Company Overview - Rigetti Computing specializes in quantum computing, producing both modular and non-modular quantum processing units (QPUs) and offering a cloud-based platform for developers to create quantum algorithms [6]. - The company employs superconducting loops to achieve quantum states, but its systems require cryogenic refrigeration, which increases size and operational costs [5]. Financial Performance - Rigetti's revenue grew by 60% in 2022 but saw a decline of 8% in 2023 and 10% in 2024, with expectations of a further 30% drop to $7.6 million in 2025 [7][8]. - The company's annual net loss increased from $72 million in 2022 to $201 million in 2024, with projections of a loss widening to $215 million in 2025 [9]. Market Position and Competition - Rigetti faces intense competition from major players like IBM and Google, which utilize similar technologies, as well as IonQ, which offers alternative systems that do not require cryogenic refrigeration [8]. - The expiration of key contracts, such as with the U.S. National Quantum Initiative, has contributed to Rigetti's revenue challenges [8]. Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, Rigetti anticipates significant growth in computing power, aiming to deploy systems with over 100 qubits by early 2026 and over 1,000 qubits by the end of 2027 [10]. - Analysts project a revenue increase of 169% to $20.5 million in 2026 and 124% to $45.8 million in 2027, alongside expectations of narrowing annual net losses [10]. Stock Valuation - Rigetti's stock, even after a significant decline, is valued at $8.3 billion, which is 182 times its projected 2027 sales, indicating a potentially overvalued position relative to its growth prospects [12]. - The company's market cap reached $18.3 billion at its peak, reflecting an unsustainable valuation of 2,408 times its projected revenue for 2025 [11]. Risks and Challenges - Rigetti has missed its initial target for launching a 100+ qubit system, and any further delays could hinder its ability to compete effectively in the market [13]. - The company has increased its outstanding shares by 160% over the past three years, leading to dilution that may continue to affect stock value [12].

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stock has seen a remarkable 151% increase over the past year, but recent performance indicates a reassessment of future upside potential due to a weaker third-quarter performance marked by declining revenues and lower gross margins [1][6] - The company has secured new contracts and partnerships, including a multi-year agreement with the Air Force Research Laboratory, while reaffirming its technological roadmap towards larger qubit systems by 2026 and 2027 [2][8][10] Financial Performance - RGTI's revenues for the third quarter fell to $1.9 million, an 18% year-over-year decline, primarily due to a funding gap related to the National Quantum Initiative and inconsistent government contract awards [13] - Gross margins have compressed to 21%, driven by a higher proportion of lower-margin contracts, while operating expenses rose to $21 million due to increased R&D investments and compensation costs [14] Competitive Landscape - Rigetti faces competition from companies like IonQ, which is gaining traction with trapped-ion technology, and D-Wave Quantum, which focuses on enterprise use cases [3] - Quantum Computing Inc. is positioning itself around software and government solutions, presenting a different risk-reward profile compared to Rigetti's hardware-focused strategy [3] Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its ecosystem through partnerships, including a memorandum of understanding with India's C-DAC and the deployment of a 9-qubit Novera system at Montana State University, which may enhance future research collaborations [9] - Rigetti's roadmap includes plans for a 100-plus qubit system with high fidelity metrics, which will be crucial for maintaining investor confidence as the company approaches its 2026 milestones [10] Valuation Concerns - RGTI's stock is considered overvalued, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 22.38X, significantly higher than the industry average of 6.1X, indicating potential concerns regarding its current valuation [15] Investment Outlook - The company is viewed as a speculative investment in the quantum computing sector, with tangible progress on its technology roadmap but an unsettled financial profile [18] - The period leading up to 2026-2027 will be critical for Rigetti, as its ability to convert technological advancements into sustainable revenue growth will be essential for maintaining investor confidence [19]

Core Viewpoint - Quantum computing stocks, including Rigetti, D-Wave, and IonQ, have seen significant returns over the past three years, but their valuations are bubble-like and likely to collapse by 2026 due to a lack of corresponding sales and earnings growth [1][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - Quantum computing is currently a microscopic market, with sales projected to reach $4.2 billion by 2030, compared to the AI market, which is expected to total $1.8 trillion, making AI 425 times larger [8]. - General-purpose quantum computers are estimated to be a decade or two away from being useful for most enterprises, with experts suggesting that tens of thousands to millions of physical qubits will be necessary for practical applications [2][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Rigetti Computing's shares have increased by 3,210%, D-Wave Quantum's shares by 1,970%, and IonQ's shares by 1,290% over the past three years [5]. - Rigetti specializes in superconducting quantum computing with plans to launch 1,000-qubit systems by the end of 2027, while D-Wave focuses on quantum annealing with 5,000 qubits in its most advanced systems, and IonQ specializes in trapped-ion quantum computing with a goal of 20,000 qubits by 2028 [6]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - Rigetti shares trade at 928 times sales, D-Wave at 362 times sales, and IonQ at 150 times sales, with projected revenue growth rates of 124%, 69%, and 84% annually through 2027, respectively [13]. - The current valuations of these quantum computing stocks are significantly higher than the most expensive stocks in the S&P 500, which trade at an average of 55 times sales, indicating that Rigetti would need to fall 94%, D-Wave 84%, and IonQ 63% to align with those valuations [11].

Group 1 - Quantum computing is a leading investment theme alongside artificial intelligence, attracting significant investor interest due to its potential to revolutionize the tech sector and the global economy [1] - Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has experienced a remarkable increase of 2,500% since January 2024, with a current market cap of approximately $8 billion, indicating substantial growth potential if quantum computing gains traction [2] - The potential for Rigetti to transform a $10,000 investment into $1 million suggests a market cap increase to around $837 billion, highlighting the long-term investment horizon required for such returns [3][8] Group 2 - Rigetti's business model presents significant opportunities due to the ability of quantum computing to solve complex problems more efficiently, positioning the company at the forefront of the quantum computing revolution [5] - The quantum computing market is projected to reach $20 billion by 2030, a significant increase from nearly $3 billion in 2024, indicating growth potential despite the market still being relatively small [6] - Achieving a 100x return on investment for Rigetti may take decades, emphasizing the long-term nature of investments in this sector [7]