Rosenblatt Securities launched coverage of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) with a “Buy” rating and an ambitious $40 price target. The target implies a potential of around 60% from current levels as Wall Street grows increasingly bullish on quantum computing's commercial potential. Analyst John McPeake highlighted the company's modular approach to scaling quantum processors and its internal fabrication capabilities as key competitive advantages in the rapidly evolving sector. More News from Barchart The optim ...

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks have seen significant price increases, with some rising by up to 5,400% in 2024, attracting investor interest despite skepticism from industry insiders [2][3][10] - The global addressable market for quantum computing is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2035, indicating substantial long-term growth potential [3] - High-profile partnerships with major companies like Amazon and Microsoft are enhancing the visibility and credibility of quantum computing firms [5][6] Company Performance - Quantum computing companies such as IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. are expected to experience triple-digit annual sales growth, with Rigetti's revenue projected to increase from less than $8 million in 2025 to $152 million by 2029 [9] - D-Wave Quantum's revenue is anticipated to rise from less than $26 million in 2025 to $219 million by 2029, showcasing the growth trajectory of these firms [9] Insider Activity - Over the past three years, insiders of quantum computing companies have sold approximately $840 million more in stock than they have purchased, raising concerns about the companies' future prospects [12][13] - Notably, there has been minimal insider buying activity, with Quantum Computing Inc. and Rigetti Computing showing no insider purchases during this period, which may signal a lack of confidence in the stock's future performance [16][17] Market Dynamics - The surge in quantum computing stocks in 2025 was partly fueled by a report from JPMorgan Chase outlining a $1.5 trillion initiative that includes quantum computing as a critical area for investment [7][8] - Despite the excitement surrounding quantum computing, the high price-to-sales ratios of these stocks suggest they may be overvalued, indicating potential market corrections in the future [17][18]

Rigetti Computing FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Rigetti Computing (NasdaqCM:RGTI) - **Founded**: 2013 - **Headquarters**: Berkeley, California - **Industry**: Quantum Computing - **Technology**: Focus on superconducting qubits, which are considered the leading modality in quantum computing due to scalability and speed [1][4] Key Points and Arguments Quantum Computing Technology - Rigetti's quantum computers utilize superconducting qubits, achieving gate speeds of 50-70 nanoseconds, significantly faster than other modalities like ion traps [1][5] - The company has developed the first multi-chip quantum processor for scalable systems, manufacturing QPUs in-house at Fab 1, the first dedicated quantum device manufacturing facility [1][4] - Over 90% of current investments in quantum computing are in superconducting gate technology, with major players including IBM, Google, and the Chinese government [5] Scalability and Speed - Scalability and gate speed are critical advantages of superconducting technology, with Rigetti's systems operating at speeds comparable to CPUs and GPUs [5][6] - Historical challenges in fidelity for superconducting qubits have improved, with recent advancements showing fidelity rates of 99.5%-99.7% [8] Go-to-Market Strategy - Rigetti has chosen a hybrid approach, selling both physical quantum computers and offering quantum computing as a service [10] - The company tailors its offerings based on customer needs, providing either complete systems or just QPUs depending on existing infrastructure [13][14] Quantum Advantage - Rigetti is conservative in its estimates, projecting that quantum advantage could be achieved in about three years, requiring at least 1,000 qubits, 99.9% fidelity, and 50 nanosecond gate speeds [18][19] - The company emphasizes the importance of demonstrating clear superiority over classical computing in practical applications [19][21] Roadmap and Future Goals - Immediate goal is to deploy a 108-qubit system with 99.5% fidelity and 60-nanosecond gate speed by the end of Q1 2026 [33] - Plans to exceed 150 qubits at 99.7% fidelity within the year, with a long-term goal of reaching 1,000 qubits at 99.8% fidelity by 2027 [35] Partnerships and Collaborations - Rigetti has partnered with various companies for different aspects of its technology stack, including Riverlane for error correction and NVIDIA for distribution layer software [40][41] - The company believes in an open and modular architecture, allowing for integration of innovative solutions from other firms [39] Government Funding and Market Outlook - The U.S. government is expected to increase funding for quantum computing significantly, with recent initiatives indicating a commitment to maintaining leadership in the field [69][70] - Rigetti anticipates that the market for quantum computing will grow to approximately $3 billion by 2030 and $15-$20 billion by 2035 [17] Customer Base and Applications - Current customers include Fermilab, Air Force Research Laboratory, and Montana State University, primarily using systems for research applications [60] - The company does not foresee practical workloads being handled by quantum computers until quantum advantage is achieved [60] Additional Important Insights - Rigetti's balance sheet is strong, with $600 million in cash and no debt, allowing for a focus on organic growth and technology milestones [70] - The company stresses the need for patience in the quantum computing sector, indicating that significant advancements will take time [72]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing's update on its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system indicates a focus on performance discipline, delaying general availability to late Q1 2026 for further testing and optimization to achieve 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity [1][9] Company Updates - Rigetti has demonstrated 99% median two-qubit fidelity on the 108-qubit system and higher fidelities on its 9-qubit and 36-qubit platforms, indicating that the technical foundation is solid despite the delay [2][9] - The complexity of scaling modular quantum systems is highlighted, with the Cepheus-1-108Q system comprising 12 9-qubit chiplets connected via tunable couplers, leading to new engineering challenges [3] - Rigetti's decision to refine chiplet couplers suggests a commitment to launching a system that meets performance benchmarks rather than rushing to market [3][4] Market Position - The timeline adjustment may enhance Rigetti's credibility with partners and customers who value reliable quantum performance, positioning the update as a strategic recalibration for long-term value creation [4] - Rigetti's shares have increased by 99.9% over the last six months, contrasting with a 7.6% decline in the industry [8] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Rigetti trades at a price-to-book ratio of 22.66, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 earnings indicates an 88.9% decline from the previous year [12]

Investor Presentation January 2026 Cautionary Notes Forward Looking Statements: Certain statements in this presentation may be considered forward-looking statements, including statements with respect to the Company's outlook and expectations, including expectations with respect to a plan to deliver 108Q chiplet-based system at 99.5% median 2Q gate fidelity around the end of Q1 2026 and to reach 1,000+Q at 99.9% median 2Q median fidelity at <50 ns gate speed in 3-5 years to enable quantum advantage; an antic ...

Core Insights - AST SpaceMobile is positioned to experience significant revenue growth, with projections indicating a 1,200% increase in sales to $57.3 million in 2025, followed by a further 311% growth to $235.6 million in 2026 [4] - The company's strategy of partnering with over 50 global mobile network providers, covering nearly 3 billion cellular subscribers, is expected to facilitate a rapid increase in revenue without the need to build a competing network [2] - AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellites aim to provide 4G and 5G services using existing smartphone technology, offering a seamless transition for wireless operators and potentially revolutionizing global broadband coverage [3] Group 1: Company Overview - AST SpaceMobile's current valuation stands at $33.3 billion, which raises concerns about the potential for error in its high-growth projections [7] - The company has successfully secured partnerships with major wireless operators, which is crucial for its growth strategy [2] Group 2: Market Context - The stock market has seen substantial gains, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 45%, 78%, and 122% respectively from the beginning of 2023 to the end of 2025 [6] - The overall market sentiment is driven by the performance of growth stocks and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and quantum computing [6]

Company Overview - Rigetti Computing specializes in quantum computing hardware and cloud-based quantum services, utilizing proprietary superconducting technology to deliver scalable quantum solutions [7] - The company generates revenue through integrated solutions that allow clients to access quantum computing resources on various cloud infrastructures [1] Recent Transaction - On January 2, 2026, Dr. Alissa Fitzgerald, a Board member, sold 59,316 shares of Rigetti Computing for approximately $1.3 million, at a weighted average price of $22.41 per share [5][6] - This sale reduced her direct ownership by 63.1%, leaving her with 34,675 shares, which is about 9.3% of her holdings as of February 2024 [3][5] Historical Context - The recent sale size is more than double Dr. Fitzgerald's recent median sell size of 25,000 shares and is the largest since June 2025 [4] - Dr. Fitzgerald's holdings have declined by over 90% since February 2024, indicating a sustained pattern of depletion [5][3] Market Performance - Rigetti's stock has appreciated over 150% in the past year, driven by investor interest in the quantum computing sector [9] - Despite this growth, the company reported sales of only $1.9 million in the third quarter of the previous year, down from $2.4 million in 2024 [10] Future Outlook - The company faces challenges as quantum computing is still in its infancy, with technical hurdles such as high calculation error rates hindering mass adoption [10] - Rigetti missed the release of its new Cepheus-1-108Q system, which has been delayed to the end of Q1 2026 [10]

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks, including IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc., are experiencing significant hype and price increases, but historical trends suggest a potential bubble burst in the near future [3][6][22] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The quantum computing sector is projected to contribute up to $850 billion to global GDP by 2040, creating a substantial addressable market that has driven stock prices up dramatically [4][6] - Since October 1, 2024, the stock prices of IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. have surged by 521%, 3,270%, 3,290%, and 1,790% respectively, indicating extreme investor enthusiasm [5][6] Group 2: Financial Considerations - Early-stage quantum computing companies are expected to face operating losses and cash burn, leading to share-based dilution as a common practice for raising capital [7][9] - IonQ raised $2 billion through a stock offering, selling shares at $93, which has since decreased to $50.76, highlighting the risks of dilution for existing investors [8] Group 3: Valuation Challenges - Traditional valuation metrics are difficult to apply to early-stage companies with no earnings, but the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio can provide insights; historical data shows that P/S ratios above 30 are unsustainable [11][12] - Current P/S ratios for leading quantum computing stocks indicate they remain in bubble territory, suggesting potential for significant price corrections [13] Group 4: Market Environment - The overall stock market is currently at a high valuation, with the S&P 500's Shiller P/E Ratio nearing 41, which historically signals potential downturns for high-priced stocks [15][16] - Volatility in the market tends to disproportionately affect the most expensive stocks, which could include quantum computing companies that have not yet proven their business models [17] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The barrier to entry in the quantum computing industry is lower than perceived, with established tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft developing their own quantum technologies, posing a threat to current players [18][21] - The first-mover advantage held by current quantum computing companies may be eroded as larger firms with more capital and resources enter the market [20][21]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing is revising its roadmap and adjusting the general availability date for its 108-qubit quantum computing system, Cepheus™-1-108Q, now expected by the end of Q1 2026 [1] Group 1: System Development and Performance - The company is making strong progress with Cepheus-1-108Q but is taking additional time to test and optimize the system to meet performance standards [2] - Rigetti aims to achieve a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5% and has reported current fidelities of 99% for the 108-qubit system, 99.7% for the 9-qubit system, and 99.6% for the 36-qubit system [2] - Cepheus-1-108Q is based on twelve 9-qubit chiplets and utilizes Rigetti's proprietary modular chip architecture, making it the highest qubit count system to date and the largest modular quantum computing system in the industry [2] Group 2: Technology and Infrastructure - Rigetti's quantum computers are based on superconducting qubits, which are considered the leading qubit modality due to their maturity, scalability, and fast gate speeds [3] - The current gate speeds for Rigetti's quantum computing systems range from 50-70 nanoseconds, which is approximately 1,000 times faster than other modalities like ion traps and neutral atoms [3] - The company operates quantum computers via its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services (QCS) platform, providing high-performance integration with public and private clouds for practical quantum computing [4] Group 3: Product Offerings - Rigetti sells on-premises quantum computing systems ranging from 9 to 108 qubits, supporting national laboratories and quantum computing centers [5] - The 9-qubit Novera QPU is designed for high-performance, on-premises use, allowing integration with existing cryogenic and control systems [5] - Rigetti developed the industry's first multi-chip quantum processor for scalable systems and deployed the largest multi-chip quantum computer in 2025 with Cepheus-1-36Q [6]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing's stock experienced a dramatic rise followed by a significant decline, raising questions about its future performance and potential as an investment opportunity [1][2]. Company Overview - Rigetti Computing specializes in quantum computing, producing both modular and non-modular quantum processing units (QPUs) and offering a cloud-based platform for developers to create quantum algorithms [6]. - The company employs superconducting loops to achieve quantum states, but its systems require cryogenic refrigeration, which increases size and operational costs [5]. Financial Performance - Rigetti's revenue grew by 60% in 2022 but saw a decline of 8% in 2023 and 10% in 2024, with expectations of a further 30% drop to $7.6 million in 2025 [7][8]. - The company's annual net loss increased from $72 million in 2022 to $201 million in 2024, with projections of a loss widening to $215 million in 2025 [9]. Market Position and Competition - Rigetti faces intense competition from major players like IBM and Google, which utilize similar technologies, as well as IonQ, which offers alternative systems that do not require cryogenic refrigeration [8]. - The expiration of key contracts, such as with the U.S. National Quantum Initiative, has contributed to Rigetti's revenue challenges [8]. Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, Rigetti anticipates significant growth in computing power, aiming to deploy systems with over 100 qubits by early 2026 and over 1,000 qubits by the end of 2027 [10]. - Analysts project a revenue increase of 169% to $20.5 million in 2026 and 124% to $45.8 million in 2027, alongside expectations of narrowing annual net losses [10]. Stock Valuation - Rigetti's stock, even after a significant decline, is valued at $8.3 billion, which is 182 times its projected 2027 sales, indicating a potentially overvalued position relative to its growth prospects [12]. - The company's market cap reached $18.3 billion at its peak, reflecting an unsustainable valuation of 2,408 times its projected revenue for 2025 [11]. Risks and Challenges - Rigetti has missed its initial target for launching a 100+ qubit system, and any further delays could hinder its ability to compete effectively in the market [13]. - The company has increased its outstanding shares by 160% over the past three years, leading to dilution that may continue to affect stock value [12].