Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing, Inc. is experiencing significant stock price fluctuations and is preparing for an upcoming earnings disclosure that may impact investor sentiment and stock performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - In the latest trading session, Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) declined by 3.48% to $16.98, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.33% [1]. - Over the past month, shares of Rigetti have decreased by 31.1%, while the Computer and Technology sector has lost 1.09% and the S&P 500 has remained flat [1]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates - The upcoming earnings disclosure is expected to show an EPS of -$0.05, reflecting a 37.5% growth compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict an EPS of -$0.68 and revenue of $7.89 million, indicating declines of 88.89% and 26.88% respectively from the previous year [3]. Group 3: Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Rigetti Computing, Inc. suggest a positive outlook on the company's business operations and profit generation capabilities [4]. - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Rigetti Computing, Inc. as 3 (Hold), with no changes in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [6]. - The Internet - Software industry, which includes Rigetti, ranks in the top 36% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank, indicating a relatively strong position within the sector [7].

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing's stock has significantly declined, trading over 60% below its 2025 high and losing all gains made in 2026, raising questions about whether it is a good time to invest in this quantum computing start-up [1][2]. Industry Overview - The quantum computing industry is still in its early stages, with start-ups like Rigetti competing against established tech giants such as Google and IBM to develop commercially viable quantum technologies [2]. - Companies in this sector are focused on optimizing their quantum computers based on three key metrics: speed, accuracy, and scale [4]. Performance Metrics - Speed is defined as the time taken for a quantum system to manipulate a quantum particle at a "quantum gate" [4]. - Accuracy is measured by "two-qubit gate fidelity," indicating the percentage of error-free computations [5]. - Scale refers to the number of physical qubits in a quantum system, with a noted challenge that increasing speed and scale often leads to decreased accuracy [5]. Rigetti's Position - Rigetti's 108-qubit system claims gate speeds of 50-70 nanoseconds, which is considered very fast [7]. - The median accuracy of this system is 99% for two-qubit gate fidelity, which, while seemingly high, is not competitive with rivals like IonQ, which has achieved 99.99% fidelity in a 100-qubit system [8][9]. - Rigetti's smaller systems show better accuracy, with a 36-qubit system achieving 99.6% fidelity and a 9-qubit system reaching 99.7% [9]. Future Projections - Rigetti aims to develop a system with 1,000 qubits by 2027, targeting a two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.7% [13]. - In comparison, IonQ is targeting a 10,000-qubit system by 2027 and a 2 million-qubit system by 2030 [13]. - For quantum computers to be commercially viable, estimates suggest they need at least 1 million physical qubits and a fidelity of 99.99% or higher [12]. Market Potential - The quantum computing market could reach as much as $72 billion by 2030, presenting significant opportunities for companies like Rigetti if they can capture a substantial market share [17].

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing has experienced a significant stock increase of 1,420% over the past 15 months, although it lags behind D-Wave Quantum's 1,910% rise [1] - Investors are optimistic about quantum computing's potential to disrupt various industries, including encryption, genetic analysis, and financial forecasting [2] - Rigetti aims to provide a comprehensive suite of quantum computing solutions, encompassing hardware, system design, management software, and cloud services, which may attract enterprise customers [3] Financial Performance - As of February 4, 2026, Rigetti's stock price is $2.73, with a market capitalization of $4.9 billion [4] - The stock has shown volatility, with a 52-week price range of $6.86 to $58.15, and a gross margin of -6849.48% [4] - The company has a high valuation ratio, trading at 757 times sales, making it appear expensive compared to peers like IonQ and D-Wave [7] Market Sentiment - The stock's trajectory is heavily influenced by market sentiment and technological advancements in the quantum computing sector, leading to unpredictable price movements [5] - Despite a 45% gain in 2025, the company is unprofitable and often issues more stock to sustain operations, raising concerns about its long-term viability [7] - A steep price correction is anticipated within the next one to two years, as commercial success in quantum computing may take over a decade [8]

Group 1 - Rigetti Computing's stock experienced a significant increase of 18.3%, attributed to a broader tech rally rather than company-specific news [1] - The company's market capitalization stands at $4.9 billion, with a current stock price of $17.66 [3][6] - Rigetti's stock performance is part of a recovery trend in the tech sector, following a decline of nearly 4.5% in the Nasdaq Composite over the previous four days [3] Group 2 - The quantum computing industry, including Rigetti, faces challenges regarding the timeline to commercial viability, which may be further away than current valuations suggest [8] - Rigetti's market cap implies that breakthrough success in quantum computing is expected within a few years, but there are indications that this may not be the case [8] Group 3 - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with projections for collective spending by hyperscalers to exceed $560 billion by 2026 [4]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has secured an $8.4 million purchase order to deliver a 108-qubit quantum computer to C-DAC, marking a significant shift from experimental cloud access to tangible on-premises deployments [2][10] - The installation of the quantum system at C-DAC's Bengaluru data center is scheduled for the second half of 2026, enhancing Rigetti's reputation from a speculative research vendor to a key infrastructure supplier [3][10] - The order highlights confidence in Rigetti's chiplet-based architecture, which is seen as essential for scaling towards error-corrected, fault-tolerant systems, and demonstrates the company's ability to convert research partnerships into revenue-generating sales [4][10] Financial Performance - Although the $8.4 million order is not expected to materially alter Rigetti's financial profile, it reinforces a repeatable go-to-market strategy in government and defense-related markets [5][10] - Rigetti's shares have decreased by 6.3% over the last six months, while the industry has seen a decline of 20.4% [9] - The company currently has a price-to-book ratio of 13.29, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2026 earnings suggests a significant improvement of 75.9% compared to the previous year [13] - Current estimates for Rigetti's earnings per share (EPS) for the current year and next year are -0.68 and -0.16, respectively, indicating a year-over-year growth estimate of 75.98% for the next year [14]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing is attracting investor interest due to its unique position in the quantum computing sector, but its current valuation may be overly optimistic given the long timeline for practical applications of quantum technology [1][3]. Company Overview - Rigetti Computing has a market capitalization of approximately $4.9 billion, with recent sales totaling only $7.5 million over the last 12 months, indicating a significant disconnect between valuation and current financial performance [2]. - The stock price has seen a decline of 12.54%, currently priced at $15.04, with a 52-week range between $6.86 and $58.15 [2]. Industry Insights - A report from MIT suggests that large-scale commercial applications of quantum computing, which would justify high market caps, are likely still "far off," with general-use quantum computing estimated to be two decades away according to Morningstar [3]. - The current optimism surrounding quantum computing may not align with the actual development timeline, leading to potential overvaluation of companies like Rigetti [5]. Investment Considerations - Investors may face challenges as Rigetti will need to secure ongoing funding, which could be dilutive to existing shareholders, raising concerns about the sustainability of its current valuation [5]. - Alternative investment opportunities, such as Alphabet, may present better risk-reward profiles compared to Rigetti's high-risk quantum computing venture [5].

Core Insights - The AI-driven rally in technology stocks has raised concerns about valuations, particularly highlighted by Microsoft's Q2 earnings report, which led to a nearly 12% stock drop due to high capital expenditures and Azure's revenue growth being slightly above expectations [1] - The correction in technology stocks is viewed as a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors, especially in the quantum computing sector, which is projected to grow significantly from $4 billion in 2024 to $72 billion by 2035, and potentially to $97 billion when including quantum communication and sensing [2] Company Insights - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is recognized as a leading developer of quantum computing systems, claiming to be the first commercial supplier of quantum computers and the only one offering dual-platform quantum computing technologies [4] - Despite recent market corrections, QBTS stock has experienced a remarkable 245% increase over the past 52 weeks, driven by its growth potential in a significant addressable market [5] - QBTS stock currently has a price-to-sales ratio of 255.9 and a price-to-book value of 11.98, indicating a stretched valuation, but the company is at a growth inflection point that may lead to meaningful changes in these metrics [7] - For Q3 2025, D-Wave reported revenue of $3.7 million, reflecting a 100% year-over-year increase, with strong bookings suggesting continued robust top-line growth; the company has a cash buffer of $836 million, providing ample resources for growth and innovation [8]

Core Insights - IonQ's fifth-generation quantum system, Tempo, achieved a qubit score of 64, increasing computational capacity by nearly 260 million times compared to its previous system, Forte, with plans to reach 256 qubits by 2026 and up to two million by 2030 [1] - IonQ reported a record revenue of $39.9 million in Q3, representing a 222% year-over-year growth, indicating strong commercial traction in the quantum computing sector [2] - The company is valued at $14.2 billion and focuses on universal quantum computing, networking, sensing, and security solutions for various industries [4] Company Developments - IonQ completed the acquisition of Oxford Ionics, enhancing its Electronic Qubit Control architecture and improving scalability and cost-effectiveness [1] - The company also acquired Vector Atomic, a leader in quantum sensing technology [1] - IonQ collaborated with Nvidia, Amazon, and AstraZeneca, achieving a 20x speedup in computational drug research [6] Financial Performance - IonQ's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was -$48.9 million, primarily due to R&D spending, which management views as necessary for long-term leadership [7] - The company ended the quarter with $1.5 billion in cash, which increased to $3.5 billion after a $2 billion capital raise in October, maintaining a zero-debt balance sheet [6] Market Position - The quantum computing market is projected to reach $12.6 billion by 2032, with IonQ positioning itself as a leading player in this emerging industry [5] - Wall Street analysts have a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" for IonQ, with an average price target of $75.50, suggesting an 88.8% upside potential [9]

Core Insights - The quantum computing sector experienced significant volatility in January 2026, with major players like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum facing substantial sell-offs due to broader tech market jitters and risk-off sentiment [1][4][5] Market Performance - In January, IonQ's stock declined by 10.9%, while Rigetti and D-Wave saw larger drops of 18% and 18.9%, respectively [2][8] Market Drivers - The sell-off was primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding interest rates, as central banks indicated that rate cuts would be slower and more dependent on economic data, leading to reduced attractiveness of long-duration assets [4][5] - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts and trade pressures, raised concerns about supply chains and capital spending, prompting investors to shift towards defensive sectors [5] February Outlook - For February 2026, selective stabilization is anticipated rather than a broad-based rebound, with stock-specific developments becoming increasingly important [6] - IonQ's announcement of a $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater provided a temporary boost in sentiment, with analysts projecting a 74.61% increase in price target from its last closing price of $43.24 [7][8] - D-Wave reported $30 million in contracts and growing traction for its Advantage2 system, which helped stabilize its shares, with an average price target increase of 73.8% from its last closing price of $23.22 [9] - Rigetti, however, lacks near-term catalysts, making it more vulnerable to macro sentiment, with an average price target increase of 103% from its last closing price of $19.85 [10] Valuation Sensitivity - Valuations for quantum pure plays remain highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations and overall risk appetite, limiting upside potential unless macro conditions improve significantly [15]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGTI) is recognized as a promising investment opportunity following an upgrade by B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis, who raised the stock rating to "Buy" from "Neutral" while maintaining a price target of $35, citing improved visibility into the company's commercial trajectory and future estimates [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - Rigetti Computing India P L, a wholly owned subsidiary of Rigetti Computing, received an $8.4 million purchase order to deliver a 108-qubit quantum computer to the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), India's leading R&D organization under the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology [2]. - The quantum computer is scheduled for deployment in the second half of 2026 and will be installed on-premises at C-DAC's Bengaluru center, highlighting Rigetti's role as a pioneer in full-stack quantum computing [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Comparisons - While Rigetti Computing is viewed as a potential investment, there are suggestions that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk, indicating a competitive landscape in the technology sector [4].