Market Overview - Market indexes showed resilience against high bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield at +5.05%, the highest in 18 years, but moderated from previous spikes [1] - Major indexes finished flat, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 remaining unchanged, while the Nasdaq closed up +53 points (+0.28%) [2] - Despite being in the red over the past five trading days, the indexes have seen double-digit gains over the past month [2] Quarterly Earnings Summary - **Workday (WDAY)**: Reported Q1 earnings of $2.23 per share on $2.4 billion in sales, beating previous figures of $1.99 per share and $2.22 billion. However, shares fell -5% due to steady guidance and reduced capex spending [3] - **Deckers Outdoor (DECK)**: Earnings of $1.00 per share exceeded the Zacks consensus of 57 cents, with revenues of $1.02 billion surpassing expectations of $988.6 million. Shares dropped -11% due to lower-than-expected guidance for the current quarter and full-year guidance held back due to tariff issues [3] - **Intuit (INTU)**: Surpassed earnings expectations with $11.65 per share against a consensus of $10.89, and revenues of $7.75 billion exceeding the $7.54 billion forecast. Shares rose +5% following a significant increase in next-quarter guidance driven by Credit Karma growth [4] - **Ross Stores (ROST)**: Beat earnings estimates by 4 cents with $1.47 per share on $4.98 billion in revenues, slightly above consensus. Same-store sales were flat but improved from a projected decline. Shares fell -9% due to lower next-quarter earnings guidance attributed to tariff pressures [5] - **AutoDesk (ADSK)**: Reported Q1 earnings of $2.29 per share, beating the anticipated $2.14, with revenues of $1.63 billion slightly above the forecast of $1.61 billion. Shares gained +5% due to positive next-quarter guidance [6]

Group 1 - Ross Stores reported quarterly earnings of $1.47 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.43 per share, and showing a slight increase from $1.46 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of 2.80% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $4.98 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.35% and reflecting a year-over-year increase from $4.86 billion [2] - Over the last four quarters, Ross Stores has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Group 2 - The stock's immediate price movement will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the sustainability of earnings expectations [3][4] - Ross Stores shares have increased approximately 0.9% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with a decline of 0.6% in the S&P 500 [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.64 on revenues of $5.49 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.43 on revenues of $21.93 billion [7] Group 3 - The estimate revisions trend for Ross Stores is currently favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] - The Retail - Discount Stores industry is currently ranked in the bottom 39% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting that the industry outlook may impact stock performance [8] Group 4 - Another company in the same industry, Costco, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.25 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +12.4%, with revenues anticipated to be $63.14 billion, up 7.9% from the previous year [9][10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales increased by 3% to $5 billion, with comparable store sales remaining flat compared to the previous year [5] - Earnings per share rose to $1.47 from $1.46, while net income decreased to $479 million from $488 million year-over-year [5] - Operating margin remained flat at 12.2% year-over-year [5][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The dd's discount brand continued strong momentum with solid sales and operating profits [6] - Cosmetics emerged as the strongest merchandise area during the quarter [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Geographic trends showed broad-based performance, with the Southeast region performing the best [5] - Total consolidated inventories increased by 8% year-over-year, with average store inventories up by 4% [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open approximately 90 new stores in 2025, including about 80 Ross and 10 dd's discount locations [7] - The company is focused on maintaining a pricing umbrella below traditional retailers to deliver value to customers, despite expected inflationary pressures [8] - Management expressed a cautious outlook for the second half of the fiscal year due to uncertainties in consumer demand and trade policies [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a sequential improvement in comparable sales throughout the quarter, despite a slow start in February [9] - The company withdrew its previously provided annual guidance due to too many unknown variables affecting visibility [9] - Management emphasized the importance of a flexible business model to navigate through uncertain times [15] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 2 million shares of common stock for $263 million during the first quarter [11] - The projected earnings per share for the second quarter is in the range of $1.40 to $1.55, including a cost impact of $0.11 to $0.16 from tariffs [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the cadence of comps and drivers of improvement? - Management noted broad-based improvement across merchandise categories, with April showing strong performance [19] Question: What strategies are in place to mitigate tariffs? - Management discussed working with vendors for better costing, careful price increases, and utilizing closeouts to mitigate tariff impacts [20] Question: How do you expect the gross margin hit from tariffs to evolve? - The second quarter impact includes costs from orders already in transit when tariffs were announced, and management is cautious about predicting the back half of the year [25][26] Question: What are your thoughts on inventory availability and sourcing? - Management believes there will be availability of closeouts, but there may be some receipt risk due to production halts in China [31][32] Question: How is the branded strategy performing? - Management is pleased with the execution of the branded strategy, which is now expected to have no further margin headwinds [52][53] Question: What are your expectations for pricing elasticity? - Management indicated that elasticity will depend on the category and is being strategic about pricing changes [58] Question: How are you planning to shift sourcing away from China? - Management acknowledged the challenges in shifting sourcing quickly but emphasized flexibility in product assortment [64][89]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales increased by 3% to $5 billion, with comparable store sales remaining flat compared to the previous year [4] - Earnings per share rose to $1.47 from $1.46 last year, while net income decreased to $479 million from $488 million [4] - Operating margin was flat year over year at 12.2% [4][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The dd's discount brand continued strong momentum with solid sales and operating profits [5] - Cosmetics emerged as the strongest merchandise area during the quarter [4] - Average store inventories increased by 4%, aligning with company plans, while total consolidated inventories rose by 8% due to opportunistic buys [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Geographic trends showed broad-based performance, with the Southeast region performing the best [4] - The company opened 16 new Ross and three dd's discount locations in the first quarter, with plans for approximately 90 new stores this year [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to maintain a substantial pricing umbrella below traditional retailers to deliver value to customers [7] - Strategies are in place to gain market share while minimizing margin impact from tariffs [9] - The company is focused on providing high-quality branded merchandise at great value despite inflationary pressures [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed limited visibility into the second half of the fiscal year due to prolonged inflation and fluctuating tariff levels [15] - The company remains cautious and has withdrawn its previously provided annual guidance due to uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment [9] - Management highlighted the importance of a flexible off-price business model to navigate through uncertain times [15] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 2 million shares of common stock for $263 million under a $2.1 billion buyback authorization [11] - For the second quarter, comparable store sales are projected to be flat to up 3%, with earnings per share expected in the range of $1.40 to $1.55 [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the cadence of comps and drivers of improvement? - Management noted broad-based sequential improvement across merchandise categories, with April showing strong performance [18][19] Question: What strategies are in place to mitigate tariffs? - Strategies include negotiating better costs with vendors, passing along some price increases cautiously, and utilizing closeouts and packaway merchandise [19][20] Question: How do you expect the tariff impact to change throughout the year? - The second quarter impact includes costs from orders already in transit when tariffs were announced, and future impacts will depend on macroeconomic conditions [25][26] Question: What is the outlook for inventory availability? - Management expects availability of closeouts but acknowledges potential receipt risks due to production halts in China [32] Question: How is the branded strategy performing? - The branded strategy is on track, with no expected margin headwinds going forward, particularly in the ladies' business [55] Question: What are the expectations for pricing elasticity? - Pricing elasticity will depend on the category and is influenced by broader inflationary pressures across the retail sector [60] Question: How is the cosmetics category performing? - The cosmetics category is performing well due to strong execution and a favorable brand mix [102]

Financial Performance - Earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $1.47, slightly up from $1.46 in Q1 2024, with net income at $479 million compared to $488 million last year[5] - Total sales for Q1 2025 reached $5.0 billion, with comparable store sales remaining flat year-over-year[5] - Operating margin for the first quarter was 12.2%, unchanged from the previous year[6] - Net earnings for the three months ended May 3, 2025, were $479,249, a decrease of 2% from $487,990 in the same period last year[16] Share Repurchase and Guidance - The company repurchased 2.0 million shares for $263 million under a $2.1 billion buyback program, aiming to buy back $1.05 billion in total during fiscal 2025[6] - For Q2 2025, comparable store sales are projected to be flat to up 3%, with earnings per share guidance set between $1.40 and $1.55, down from $1.59 in the prior year[8] Cost and Tariff Impact - The anticipated cost impact from tariffs is estimated to be approximately $0.11 to $0.16 per share for Q2 2025[8] Store and Asset Management - The company operates 2,205 stores at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease from 2,127 stores a year earlier[12] - Total assets as of May 3, 2025, were $14.30 billion, down from $14.49 billion a year prior[14] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $3.78 billion from $4.65 billion year-over-year[14] Cash Flow and Investment Activities - Net cash provided by operating activities increased to $409,715, up 11% from $368,921 year-over-year[16] - Cash used in investing activities rose to $207,378, compared to $136,249 in the prior year, reflecting increased capital expenditures[16] - Net cash used in financing activities significantly increased to $1,149,809, up from $450,033, primarily due to long-term debt payments of $700,000[16] - The total cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period was $3,848,990, down from $4,718,080 a year ago[16] Expense Management - Interest paid during the period was $35,939, a decrease from $40,158 in the previous year[16] - Income taxes paid (refunded), net, was $334, compared to a refund of $(375) in the same period last year[16] - Depreciation and amortization expenses increased to $115,938 from $109,186 year-over-year[16] - Stock-based compensation decreased slightly to $39,296 from $40,447 in the prior year[16] - Merchandise inventory change improved to $(225,336) from $(269,479), indicating better inventory management[16] Management Approach - The company emphasizes a conservative management approach amid heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties[8]

Group 1 - Ross Stores is expected to announce fiscal first-quarter earnings on May 22, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $1.43 per share and revenue of $4.96 billion, reflecting a 3% decrease in earnings and a 2% increase in sales year-over-year [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $51 billion and reported $21 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, resulting in an operating profit of $2.6 billion and net income of $2.1 billion [2] - Ross anticipates comparable store sales to be flat to a 3% decrease for the first quarter due to cautious macroeconomic conditions, with full-year EPS expected to be between $5.95 and $6.55, slightly down from $6.32 the previous year [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that Ross Stores' stock has risen 50% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day gain of 3.6% and a maximum increase of 10% [1][4] - Over the past five years, there have been 20 earnings data points, with positive one-day returns occurring approximately 50% of the time, increasing to 73% when considering the last three years [6] - The correlation between one-day and five-day post-earnings returns can provide a less risky trading strategy, particularly if a strong correlation is identified [4][5]

Wall Street analysts forecast that Ross Stores (ROST) will report quarterly earnings of $1.43 per share in its upcoming release, pointing to a year-over-year decline of 2.1%. It is anticipated that revenues will amount to $4.97 billion, exhibiting an increase of 2.3% compared to the year-ago quarter.The current level reflects an upward revision of 0.4% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised thei ...

Core Viewpoint - Ross Stores, Inc. is anticipated to experience revenue growth while facing a decline in earnings per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with earnings estimated at $1.43 per share, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous year [1][2]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is $4.97 billion, reflecting a growth of 2.3% compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise average of 7.7%, with the last reported quarter showing an earnings surprise of 8.5% [2]. Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a likely earnings beat for Ross Stores, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [3]. Factors Influencing Q1 Results - Strong growth across merchandise categories and positive customer responses are expected to bolster performance, particularly appealing to price-conscious consumers [4]. - The off-price retail model and micro-merchandising strategy are anticipated to attract value-focused shoppers and optimize inventory allocation [5]. Store Expansion and Market Conditions - Consistent execution of store expansion plans is expected to contribute to top-line growth, with new store contributions reflected in the upcoming results [6]. - The company remains cautious about macroeconomic uncertainties and inflation affecting consumer spending on essentials [6]. Sales and Margin Expectations - For Q1 fiscal 2025, Ross Stores anticipates comparable store sales (comps) to decline between 3% and flat, with total sales projected to decrease by 1% to increase by 3% year-over-year [7]. - Operating margin is expected to be in the range of 11.4% to 12.1%, down from 12.2% last year, with a projected operating margin of 11.7% for the quarter [7][8]. Valuation and Stock Performance - Ross Stores is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 23.13x, which is lower than the industry average of 32.49x [9]. - The stock has gained 9.5% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 3.8% [10].

Core Viewpoint - Ross Stores (ROST) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended April 2025, with the consensus outlook indicating a significant factor that could influence its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for May 22, 2025, with expectations that better-than-expected results could lead to a stock price increase, while disappointing results may cause a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is $1.43 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 2.1%, while revenues are projected to be $4.97 billion, representing a 2.3% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.44% higher, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Ross Stores is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +1.27%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11]. Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Ross Stores exceeded the expected earnings of $1.65 per share by delivering $1.79, achieving a surprise of +8.48% [12]. - The company has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates in all of the last four quarters [13]. Industry Comparison - In comparison, Target (TGT), another player in the discount retail sector, is expected to report earnings of $1.68 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year decline of 17.2%, with revenues projected at $24.45 billion, down 0.3% from the previous year [17]. - Target's consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 3.1% over the last 30 days, resulting in a negative Earnings ESP of -9.91%, combined with a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [18].

Core Viewpoint - Off-price retail is gaining traction as consumers remain price-conscious in a challenging economy, with The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) and Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) being the two major players in this space [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The TJX Companies has shown strong and steady performance across its diverse retail banners, reporting solid comparable store sales growth supported by increased foot traffic and higher average basket sizes [4] - Ross Stores has returned to positive same-store sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, driven by better inventory flow and fewer promotions, indicating a recovery in its core budget-conscious apparel business [7] Group 2: Geographic and Product Diversification - TJX benefits from a global footprint with operations in the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Australia, allowing for geographic diversification that helps mitigate regional economic challenges [5] - Ross Stores has a narrower focus, primarily operating in the U.S. and lacking exposure to the home goods category, which limits its growth potential in the long term [8] Group 3: Profitability and Financial Estimates - TJX has improved profitability with expanded gross and operating margins, driven by leaner inventory levels and disciplined expense management, while also returning value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects TJX's earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal 2026 at $4.43, suggesting year-over-year growth of 4%, while Ross Stores' EPS estimate is $6.42 with projected earnings growth of 1.6% for fiscal 2025 [10] Group 4: Valuation and Stock Performance - TJX trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 28.83x, below the industry average of 32.64x, indicating a reasonable valuation given its strong fundamentals, while Ross Stores trades at a lower multiple of 22.95x [11] - Over the past year, TJX has delivered a 32.7% gain, significantly outperforming Ross Stores' 12.2% increase and the industry's 14% growth, highlighting TJX's superior stock performance [11] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The TJX Companies is viewed as the better investment option due to its stronger earnings momentum, diversified global presence, and superior stock performance, making it well-positioned for long-term success in the value-driven retail environment [13][14]