Ross Stores (ROST 0.27%) might get an initial boost due to tariffs, which will likely become a headwind for the business if the tariffs remain in place for longer.*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of May 6, 2025. The video was published on May 8, 2025. ...

Ross Stores (ROST) closed the most recent trading day at $141.47, moving +0.7% from the previous trading session. This move outpaced the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.64%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.24%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 0.74%. In the context of valuation, Ross Stores is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 21.93. This denotes no noticeable deviation relative to the industry's average Forward P/E of 21.93. Heading into today, shares of the discount retailer had gained 7.81% over ...

Ross Stores (ROST) closed at $140.78 in the latest trading session, marking a +1.01% move from the prior day. The stock outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.58%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.75%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.55%.Prior to today's trading, shares of the discount retailer had gained 9.06% over the past month. This has outpaced the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 0.19% and the S&P 500's loss of 0.84% in that time.Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performa ...

Core Viewpoint - Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) is trading at a discount compared to its industry peers, with a forward P/E ratio of 21.41X, significantly lower than the industry average of 31.61X, making it an attractive opportunity for long-term, value-focused investors [1][4]. Valuation Comparison - ROST's valuation is compelling when compared to major discount retailers such as Costco (51.07X), Burlington (23.14X), and TJX (27.93X) [4]. Stock Performance - ROST stock has shown a growth of 9.3% over the past month, outperforming the broader Retail-Wholesale sector's decline of 0.2% and the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry's growth of 3% [5]. - In comparison, peers like TJX and Costco gained 3.9% and 3.3%, while Burlington lost 6.4% during the same period [6]. Sales Growth - ROST experienced a 3% improvement in comparable store sales in Q4 fiscal 2024, driven by increased customer traffic and larger basket sizes, resulting in a year-over-year sales growth of 3% [10]. - The company's business model focuses on competitive bargains and off-price retailing, which has helped maintain its appeal across various economic conditions [11][12]. Expansion Plans - ROST plans to open 19 new stores in Q1 fiscal 2025, including 16 Ross and 3 dd's DISCOUNTS, with an overall target of approximately 90 new locations for fiscal 2025 [13]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ROST's earnings per share has increased by 1.4% and 7.8% for fiscal 2025 and 2026, respectively [14]. Near-Term Challenges - Despite its strengths, ROST faces challenges due to macroeconomic volatility, rising inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty, which have affected consumer confidence and discretionary spending [15][16]. - For Q1 fiscal 2025, ROST anticipates comparable store sales to be flat to down by 3%, with total sales projected to decline by 1% to increase by 3% year-over-year [16][17]. Strategic Focus - ROST's strategy emphasizes value-oriented off-price retailing, delivering branded and designer goods at discounted prices, which has helped maintain its competitive advantage [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Ross Stores (ROST), and emphasizes the importance of using these recommendations in conjunction with other analytical tools like the Zacks Rank to make informed investment decisions [1][5][10]. Brokerage Recommendations - Ross Stores has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.52, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on recommendations from 23 brokerage firms [2]. - Out of the 23 recommendations, 17 are Strong Buy, accounting for 73.9% of all recommendations [2]. Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Studies indicate that brokerage recommendations have limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the highest price increase potential [5]. - The vested interests of brokerage firms often lead to a positive bias in their analysts' ratings, with a ratio of five Strong Buy recommendations for every Strong Sell [6][10]. - This misalignment of interests can mislead retail investors regarding future stock price movements [7]. Zacks Rank as an Alternative - The Zacks Rank is presented as a more reliable indicator of near-term price performance, utilizing earnings estimate revisions rather than solely brokerage recommendations [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is distinct from ABR, as it is based on a quantitative model and is displayed in whole numbers, while ABR is calculated from brokerage recommendations and shown in decimals [9]. Current Earnings Estimates for Ross Stores - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ross Stores has remained unchanged at $6.41 over the past month, indicating a decline in analysts' earnings prospects [13]. - The recent consensus estimate changes have led to a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for Ross Stores, suggesting caution despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].

Macroeconomic Risks - The company is facing significant risks from macroeconomic factors, including elevated inflation and potential supply chain disruptions, which could adversely affect sales and profitability[60]. - Changes in U.S. trade or tax policy regarding apparel and home-related merchandise could increase costs and reduce profitability, as a large portion of goods is sourced from overseas[63]. - Consumer spending levels are influenced by various external factors, including inflation and unemployment rates, which could affect demand for the company's merchandise[62]. - The company must navigate risks associated with importing merchandise, including tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, which could disrupt supply chains and increase costs[74]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the retail industry is intensifying, with increased competition from both traditional and online retailers, which may negatively impact sales and margins[64]. - The company needs to secure favorable store locations based on consumer demographics to achieve planned growth, which may be challenging due to competition[72]. - Expansion into new geographic markets carries risks, including higher costs and the need for increased marketing investments to build brand awareness[73]. Operational Challenges - Labor shortages and increased turnover rates may impact the company's ability to execute its retail strategies effectively, potentially affecting operating results[69]. - Effective inventory management is crucial, as excess inventory or markdowns on slow-moving items could lead to decreased profit margins[78]. - Disruptions in the supply chain or logistics could impair the company's ability to meet customer demand, resulting in lost sales or increased costs[86]. - The company has a concentration of store locations in California, Texas, and Florida, which together account for almost 50% of its stores, making it vulnerable to regional disasters[91]. Technology and Cybersecurity - The company is making technology investments to improve information systems, but excessive technological change could disrupt operations and impact competitive positioning[84]. - The company is exposed to cybersecurity threats, including data breaches and ransomware attacks, which could disrupt operations and lead to significant legal exposure[80]. Financial Position - The company relies on strong cash flows from operations to support growth plans, capital expenditures, and shareholder returns, making liquidity essential[89]. - A hypothetical 100 basis point change in market interest rates would not materially impact the company's financial position or results[181]. - The company has no outstanding forward contracts as of February 1, 2025, to hedge against foreign currency fluctuations[178]. - The company has six series of unsecured Senior Notes with fixed interest rates, insulating it from market interest rate changes[179]. Compliance and Vendor Risks - Legal and regulatory compliance issues could result in increased costs and damage to the company's reputation, affecting sales[92]. - The company faces risks related to vendor compliance with safety and quality standards, which could lead to product recalls and increased costs[93].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is facing potential recession risks due to President Trump's tariffs and trade wars, leading to reduced consumer discretionary spending as affordability issues rise [1] - Historical context shows that during the Great Recession (December 2007 - June 2009), the S&P 500 fell by 36%, while certain stocks thrived [2] Netflix - Netflix experienced a significant growth of 77% during the Great Recession, driven by its early-stage streaming service and strong business potential [3] - In the event of a recession in 2025, Netflix's streaming service remains an attractive option for consumers, with pricing tiers at $7.99 with ads and $17.99 without [4] - Despite a high price-to-earnings ratio of 48, Netflix could still be considered a safer stock during economic downturns [5] Ross Stores - Ross Stores saw a 51% increase in stock value during the Great Recession, benefiting from its off-price retail strategy that attracts cost-conscious consumers [6] - The company projects conservative same-store sales growth for fiscal 2025, estimating a range of down 1% to up 2% due to macroeconomic pressures [7] - With a valuation of less than 20 times trailing earnings, Ross Stores is positioned favorably compared to the average S&P 500 stock, which trades at 23 times earnings [8] Vertex Pharmaceuticals - Vertex Pharmaceuticals achieved an 18% growth during the Great Recession, transitioning from a less profitable company to generating over $11 billion in sales in 2024 [9] - The company reported an operating profit of $4.4 billion last year, with a margin of 40%, indicating strong profitability [10] - Vertex is trading at nearly 30 times next year's estimated earnings, with a promising R&D pipeline that includes treatments for various diseases, making it a strong long-term investment [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) and expresses a cautious outlook on its valuation, which may limit the stock's upside potential [1] - The 4Q24 results for Ross Stores appeared satisfactory, but the overall sentiment remains cautious due to valuation concerns [1] Group 2 - The author emphasizes a diverse investment approach, incorporating fundamental, technical, and momentum investing strategies to enhance the investment process [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Ross Stores (ROST), and highlights the potential misalignment of interests between brokerage firms and retail investors [1][4][9]. Brokerage Recommendation Summary - Ross Stores has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.70, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 23 brokerage firms' recommendations [2]. - Out of the 23 recommendations, 15 are classified as Strong Buy, accounting for 65.2% of the total recommendations [2]. Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, categorizes stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, making it a more effective indicator of near-term stock performance compared to ABR [7][10]. - Unlike ABR, which is based solely on brokerage recommendations and may not be up-to-date, Zacks Rank reflects timely changes in earnings estimates, providing a more accurate indication of future price movements [8][11]. Earnings Estimate Trends for Ross Stores - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ross Stores has decreased by 4% over the past month to $6.43, indicating growing pessimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [12]. - This decline in earnings estimates has contributed to a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for Ross Stores, suggesting caution despite the favorable ABR [13].

Core Viewpoint - Telsey Advisory analyst Dana Telsey has reiterated a Market Perform rating on Ross Stores Inc (ROST) and lowered the price forecast from $175.00 to $150.00, reflecting concerns over the company's future performance and outlook [1]. Financial Performance - ROST reported fourth-quarter EPS of $1.79, slightly lower than last year's $1.82 but above the consensus estimate and guidance of $1.57 – $1.64, with the earnings beat driven by a $0.14 one-time gain from the sale of a packaway facility [1]. - Sales decreased by 1.8% to $5.912 billion, slightly missing consensus expectations [1]. Margins and Growth - Comparable store sales grew by 3%, outperforming the 2.6% consensus, while gross margin contracted to 26.5%, below estimates; however, better cost control led to an operating margin of 12.4%, beating expectations [2]. - The initial FY25 outlook for total sales growth is projected at 1% – 5%, which falls short of expectations [2]. Future Guidance - FY25 EPS is estimated to be between $5.95 – $6.55, lower than the $6.32 reported in FY24 and below the consensus of $6.67 [3]. - The first-quarter FY25 guidance is also below expectations, with sales projected to decline by 1% to increase by 3%, compared to a prior consensus of a 6% rise; comparable store sales are expected to fall between -3% and 0%, below the consensus of 2.4% [3]. Market Conditions - The company experienced growth in traffic and basket size; however, sales slowed toward the end of the fourth quarter and continued to decelerate into the first quarter due to unseasonable weather and an uncertain macro environment [4]. - The company faces pressure from shifts affecting its core lower-income customers, leading to conservative outlooks for the first quarter and FY25 [4]. Revised Projections - The analyst has lowered the FY25 sales growth outlook to 4.6% YoY growth to $22.09 billion, down from a previous estimate of 5.7% growth to $22.33 billion; the EPS estimate for FY25 has been adjusted down to $6.54 from $6.70 [5]. - ROST shares are trading higher by 1.38% at $137.84 as of the last check [5].