Group 1: Earnings Performance - RXO reported quarterly earnings of $0.06 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, and consistent with earnings from the previous year [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.67 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.73%, and up from $978 million year-over-year [2] - RXO has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters [1][2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - RXO shares have increased approximately 6% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 2.7% [3] - The future performance of RXO's stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the company's earnings outlook [4][6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.01 on revenues of $1.57 billion, and $0.43 on revenues of $6.9 billion for the current fiscal year [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Transportation - Services industry, to which RXO belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact RXO's stock performance [5]

Revenue Performance - RXO's revenue for Q4 2024 was $1.7 billion, a 70.7% increase from $1.0 billion in Q4 2023[3] - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was $1,667 million, a 70.5% increase from $978 million in Q4 2023[29] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $4,550 million, up from $3,927 million in 2023, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15.8%[33] Profitability and Loss - The company reported a GAAP net loss of $20 million in Q4 2024, compared to a net income of $2 million in Q4 2023[4] - Net loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $285 million, compared to a net income of $4 million in 2023[27] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q4 2024 were $0.06, compared to $0.06 in Q4 2023[5] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the year was $0.12, down from $0.30 in 2023[31] EBITDA and Margins - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $42 million, up from $31 million in Q4 2023, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 2.5%[5] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $118 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 2.6%, down from $132 million and 3.4% in 2023[30] - Gross margin for Q4 2024 was 15.5%, down from 18.0% in Q4 2023[3] - Gross margin as a percentage of revenue decreased to 15.5% in Q4 2024 from 18.0% in Q4 2023[33] Revenue Streams - Truck brokerage revenue reached $1,267 million in Q4 2024, up 107.9% from $610 million in Q4 2023[29] - Complementary services revenue for Q4 2024 was $431 million, slightly up from $411 million in Q4 2023, showing a growth of 4.9%[33] Cost and Expenses - Cost of transportation and services for Q4 2024 was $1,357 million, up from $743 million in Q4 2023, marking an increase of 82.3%[33] - The company reported a total cost of transportation and services for the year of $3,565 million, compared to $2,967 million in 2023, an increase of 20.1%[33] Growth Indicators - Brokerage volume increased by 10% sequentially in Q4 2024, although it declined by 6% year-over-year[6] - Last Mile stops grew by 15% year-over-year, indicating strong growth in complementary services[7] - Managed Transportation's sales pipeline reached nearly $2 billion in freight under management[7] Future Outlook - The company expects Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be between $20 million and $30 million[8] - RXO is raising its estimate for annualized cost synergies from the Coyote Logistics acquisition to at least $50 million[2] Balance Sheet Highlights - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $35 million at the end of Q4 2024, up from $5 million at the end of Q4 2023[27] - Total assets grew to $3,418 million in 2024, compared to $1,825 million in 2023, reflecting significant growth[25] - Total current liabilities increased to $1,066 million in 2024, up from $682 million in 2023[25] - The company reported a significant increase in accounts receivable, net of allowances, rising to $1,228 million in 2024 from $743 million in 2023[25] One-Time Charges - The company incurred a one-time charge of $216 million related to a deemed non-pro rata distribution in connection with a private placement common stock issuance[31] Operating Expenses - Direct operating expenses for complementary services decreased to $50 million in Q4 2024 from $56 million in Q4 2023, a reduction of 10.7%[33] - The gross margin for truck brokerage in Q4 2024 was $167 million, compared to $90 million in Q4 2023, representing an increase of 85.6%[33] - The gross margin for complementary services in Q4 2024 was $91 million, up from $86 million in Q4 2023, reflecting a growth of 5.8%[33]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates flat earnings for RXO in the upcoming quarter, with revenues expected to increase significantly, which could influence stock price movements based on actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - RXO is projected to report earnings of $0.06 per share, unchanged from the previous year, while revenues are expected to reach $1.65 billion, reflecting a 69.2% increase year-over-year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 50% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for RXO is higher than the consensus estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +2.13%, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11]. Historical Performance - RXO has a history of beating consensus EPS estimates, having exceeded expectations in three out of the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +25% in the last reported quarter [12][13]. Investment Considerations - While RXO shows potential as an earnings-beat candidate, investors are advised to consider other influencing factors beyond earnings results when making investment decisions [14][16].

Group 1 - RXO, Inc. has seen significant activity in the options market, particularly with the February 21, 2025 $10.00 Call option exhibiting high implied volatility, indicating potential for a major price movement [1] - Implied volatility reflects market expectations for future stock movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a significant event that could lead to a rally or sell-off [2] - RXO currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) in the Transportation - Services industry, which is in the bottom 25% of the Zacks Industry Rank, with recent earnings estimates being downgraded from 11 cents to 5 cents per share [3] Group 2 - The high implied volatility for RXO may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on such options to capture decay, hoping the stock does not move as much as expected by expiration [4]

Company Performance and Strategy - The company completed the transformative acquisition of Coyote Logistics in Q3 2024, which significantly enhances RXO's long-term earning power [5] - The integration of Coyote Logistics is ahead of schedule, and early wins from the combined business are already being observed [5] Leadership and Participants - The Q3 2024 earnings conference call was led by Drew Wilkerson, CEO, alongside Jamie Harris, CFO, and Jared Weisfeld, Chief Strategy Officer [5] - Key participants in the call included analysts from Citigroup, Oppenheimer, Barclays, Jefferies, Bank of America, Stifel, Wolfe, and Raymond James [1]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 ___________________________________ Form 10-Q ___________________________________ (Mark One) ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2024 or o TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from ____________ to ____________ Commission File Number: 001-41514 ___________________ ...

For the quarter ended September 2024, RXO (RXO) reported revenue of $1.04 billion, up 6.6% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.05, compared to $0.05 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue represents a surprise of +7.27% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $969.53 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.04, the EPS surprise was +25.00%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectat ...

Company Performance - RXO reported quarterly earnings of $0.05 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.04 per share, and matching the earnings from the previous year [1] - The company achieved revenues of $1.04 billion for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.27% and showing an increase from $976 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, RXO has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped revenue estimates once [2] Stock Movement and Outlook - RXO shares have increased approximately 37.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 24.3% [3] - The company's future stock performance will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the trends in earnings estimate revisions [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.12 on revenues of $1.25 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.16 on revenues of $3.91 billion [7] Industry Context - The Transportation - Services industry, to which RXO belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 18% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - The performance of RXO may be influenced by the overall outlook for the industry, as research indicates that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8]

Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when RXO (RXO) reports results for the quarter ended September 2024. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on November 7, 2024, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectati ...

RXO Inc. (NYSE: RXO ) is a company in the freight brokerage space that has been booming with increasing freight load volumes and steadily improving figures of revenue per load. After its acquisition of UPS' freight brokerage I specialize in analyzing individual stocks. With a strong educational background in both finance and economics, I've developed a deep fascination with the stock market and the potential it offers to investors at all levels. I keep a close watch on market trends, particularly in the tec ...