RXO (RXO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 08:00 AM ET Company Participants Drew Wilkerson - CEO & DirectorJamie Harris - CFOJared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy OfficerStephanie Moore - SVP - Equity ResearchJeffrey Kauffman - Partner & Transportation and Logistics Equity ResearchLucas Servera - Vice President Equity ResearchKen Hoexter - Managing DirectorRavi Shankar - Executive Director & Institutional Equity SalesJ. Bruce Chan - DirectorScott Schneeberger - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Chr ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - RXO generated total revenue of $1.4 billion in Q1 2025, with a gross margin of 16% and adjusted EBITDA of $22 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 1.5% [19][20] - The company reported a year-over-year decline of 1% in brokerage volume, with a significant 26% increase in less-than-truckload (LTL) volume, while full truckload volume decreased by 8% [9][10] - Adjusted free cash flow for Q1 was $6 million, representing a 27% conversion from adjusted EBITDA, with a long-term target conversion rate of 40% to 60% [24][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brokerage revenue was $1.1 billion, accounting for 72% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 13.3% [21] - Managed transportation revenue decreased by 10% year over year to $137 million, while last mile revenue increased by 20% year over year to $278 million, with last mile stops growing by 24% [22][23] - Complementary services gross margin was 21%, reflecting a 40 basis point increase year over year [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall market conditions showed easing from weather-related tightness earlier in the year, with RXO quickly reducing the cost of purchased transportation [12][13] - The company noted a mid-single-digit percentage decline in truckload volume in April compared to March, influenced by changing trade policies and customer strategies [14][15] - The LTL segment outperformed the market, with RXO capturing a larger share due to exceptional service and technology [100] Company Strategy and Development Direction - RXO is focused on leveraging technology and integration synergies from the Coyote acquisition, expecting to achieve over $70 million in cash synergies, including more than $60 million in annualized operating expense synergies [26][27] - The company aims to enhance its asset-light model to drive performance across market cycles, with a strong emphasis on productivity improvements through technology investments [17][31] - RXO is positioned to capitalize on organic and inorganic growth opportunities, with a strong balance sheet and a focus on customer service [17][47] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate a challenging freight market, with expectations for improved gross profit per load and EBITDA growth in Q2 compared to Q1 [15][28] - The current macroeconomic environment is creating uncertainty, but RXO anticipates sequential improvements in gross profit per load and EBITDA as synergies from the Coyote integration materialize [28][46] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining close relationships with customers to capture opportunities as the market recovers [47] Other Important Information - The company has successfully completed the integration of Coyote's technology, enabling better freight coverage and access to a larger network of carriers [5][37] - RXO's cash position at the end of Q1 was $16 million, with total committed liquidity exceeding $575 million [25] - The company is reducing its capital expenditure estimates for 2025 and 2026, reflecting the benefits of integration synergies [30][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the mid-cycle earnings power now with Coyote under RXO? - Management indicated that the integration has significantly improved long-term earnings power, with potential for $40 million in savings from improved purchase transportation [52][53] Question: What are the underlying freight market assumptions for Q2? - Management noted that April's performance was below seasonal expectations, and they are not assuming any improvement in freight market conditions for Q2 [56][58] Question: What dynamics could influence gross margin percentage in Q2? - Management explained that a softer truckload market could lead to improved gross profit per load, as seen in Q1 [63][65] Question: What are the leaps of faith in the outlook? - Management expressed confidence in their forecast, emphasizing the agility of the company to respond to market changes and the benefits of the technology integration [81][82] Question: What is driving the share gains in LTL? - Management attributed LTL share gains to exceptional service and technology, rather than pricing strategies [98][100] Question: Are there early signs of cost savings from the integration? - Management reported early signs of success in the integration, with improved freight coverage and initial benefits from purchase transportation [104][106]

Company Performance - RXO reported a quarterly loss of $0.03 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.02, marking an earnings surprise of -50% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.43 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.74%, compared to year-ago revenues of $913 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, RXO has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once and has topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Outlook - RXO shares have declined approximately 42.3% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -4.7% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.03 on revenues of $1.54 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.20 on revenues of $6.45 billion [7] Industry Context - The Transportation - Services industry, to which RXO belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a challenging environment [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact RXO's performance [5]

Financial Performance - RXO reported Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $22 million[13] compared to $15 million in Q1 2024[12] - Q1 2025 revenue reached $1433 million, a 56.9% increase from $913 million in Q1 2024[12] - RXO reported Q1 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $(003)[31] which is the same as Q1 2024[30] - The company's gross margin was 160% in Q1 2025, down from 174% in Q1 2024[12] Synergy and Integration - RXO is raising its synergy target to >$70 million, including $60 million in operating expense synergies and $10 million in capital expenditure synergies[29] - The migration of Coyote carrier and coverage operations to the RXO Connect platform was completed on May 1[23, 27] - Technology integration is expected to be substantially complete by the end of Q3[23] Volume and Market Trends - Truckload revenue per load was up 4% year-over-year[42] - LTL volume increased by 26% year-over-year, representing 25% of the total volume[19] - Last Mile stop growth accelerated to 24% year-over-year[19] Q2 2025 Outlook - RXO anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be between $30 million and $40 million[54] - The company expects brokerage volume to be down low-single-digit % year-over-year[54] - Brokerage gross margin is projected to be between 13% and 15%[54]

Revenue Performance - RXO reported first-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.4 billion, a 57% increase from $913 million in the first quarter of 2024[3] - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $1,433 million, a 57.2% increase from $913 million in Q1 2024[30] - Truck brokerage revenue reached $1,067 million, up 89.2% from $564 million in the same period last year[30] Profitability and Loss - The company experienced a GAAP net loss of $31 million in Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $15 million in Q1 2024[4] - The adjusted net loss for the quarter was $5 million, compared to an adjusted net loss of $4 million in Q1 2024[4] - GAAP diluted loss per share for Q1 2025 was $0.18, compared to $0.13 in Q1 2024[7] - Net loss for Q1 2025 was $31 million, compared to a net loss of $15 million in Q1 2024[28] EBITDA and Margins - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $22 million, up from $15 million in the same period last year[5] - The company expects second-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be between $30 million and $40 million[10] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $22 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 1.5%[32] - Brokerage gross margin was reported at 13.3% for the first quarter[8] - RXO's complementary services gross margin was 21.0% for the quarter[9] - Gross margin as a percentage of revenue for Q1 2025 was 16.0%, down from 17.4% in Q1 2024[36] Operational Metrics - Less-than-truckload brokerage volume increased by 26% year-over-year, while Last Mile achieved a 24% year-over-year stop growth[6] - RXO raised its synergy estimate to over $70 million, excluding significant cost-of-purchased-transportation opportunities[2] Cash Flow and Debt - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $16 million from $35 million at the end of Q4 2024[28] - Total current liabilities decreased to $964 million from $1,065 million at the end of Q4 2024[26] - Long-term debt increased to $387 million from $351 million at the end of Q4 2024[26] - Cash used in investing activities was $25 million, compared to $11 million in Q1 2024[28] Costs - The company incurred $6 million in transaction and integration costs during Q1 2025[34]

Acquisition and Integration - RXO, Inc. completed the acquisition of Coyote for $1.038 billion in cash, with an additional $10 million for post-closing adjustments[23]. - The company completed the acquisition of Coyote for $1.038 billion in cash on September 16, 2024[127]. - Integration of Coyote poses risks including cultural differences and operational complexities, which may hinder the realization of anticipated synergies[128]. - The company incurred substantial expenses related to the Coyote acquisition, and the expected benefits may take longer to materialize than anticipated[129]. - There may be undiscovered liabilities associated with Coyote that could adversely affect the company's financial condition[130]. Financial Performance and Customer Base - In 2024, the top 20 customers accounted for approximately 38% of total revenue, while the top five customers contributed about 23%[35]. - RXO's largest customer accounted for approximately 9.9% of total revenue in 2024, indicating a low concentration risk[35]. - The top five customers accounted for approximately 23% of the company's consolidated total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, with the largest customer representing about 9.9%[122]. - RXO serves a diversified customer base across various sectors, including retail, e-commerce, food and beverage, and automotive[36]. - The company has established long-term relationships with blue-chip customers across diverse verticals, enhancing its market position[27]. Business Model and Technology - RXO's truck brokerage business is one of the largest in the U.S., benefiting from a vast carrier pool and strong demand for transportation services[27]. - The company has invested significantly in proprietary technology, enhancing visibility, reliability, and cost-effectiveness in its operations[27]. - RXO's asset-light business model generates high returns and substantial free cash flow, leveraging historical invested capital[32]. - The digital brokerage platform RXO Connect® provides real-time visibility into supply and demand, optimizing transportation management[31]. - The company aims to leverage its technology to optimize brokerage processes and pricing, enhancing productivity and market share in the truck brokerage industry[33]. Workforce and Employee Engagement - RXO operates with a total workforce of 9,873 team members, including 7,540 full-time and part-time employees and 2,333 temporary workers[63]. - 34% of RXO's employees are female, with 62% male and 1% identifying as others or undisclosed[64]. - The company maintains a commitment to employee engagement and offers various career development opportunities, including workshops and leadership training[65]. - RXO's total rewards program includes competitive compensation and benefits, with the majority of healthcare costs covered to minimize inflationary impacts on employees[66]. - The company’s ability to attract and retain qualified employees is critical for maintaining its competitive position and meeting customer expectations[116]. Regulatory and Compliance Issues - RXO is subject to various federal and state regulations affecting its operations, including those related to motor carriers and independent contractors[41][44][53]. - The company operates under an exclusive forum provision to limit litigation risks, which may discourage lawsuits against RXO and its directors[150]. - RXO's operations are subject to various environmental laws, particularly concerning hazardous materials and emissions, with a focus on compliance[55]. - The company incurred significant costs related to compliance with evolving environmental regulations, which could adversely affect operations and increase expenses[112]. - The company faces potential legal challenges regarding the classification of independent contractors, which could lead to increased costs and operational changes[90][91]. Market Conditions and Risks - The transportation services industry is highly competitive, with factors such as competition from other companies and economic downturns potentially harming revenue and profit margins[76]. - Economic recessions and fluctuations in demand for transportation services can adversely impact the company's operating results and future prospects[77]. - Fuel price volatility significantly affects fuel surcharge revenue and overall profitability, with potential material impacts from fuel price fluctuations[80][82]. - A reduction in overall freight volume can limit growth opportunities, and customer financial distress may increase working capital needs[82]. - Labor disputes and organizing efforts could disrupt operations and negatively impact customer relationships and revenue[94][96]. Governance and Corporate Citizenship - The company has a strong governance structure and a commitment to corporate citizenship, which underpins its culture and operational success[60]. - RXO's management strategy focuses on growth through technology innovation and optimizing customer service[30]. - The company is implementing various cost and revenue initiatives, including advanced pricing analytics and a digital brokerage platform, to enhance profitability[118]. - The company is subject to various claims and litigation that could result in significant expenditures and impact operations[111]. Future Outlook and Challenges - The company aims to capitalize on technological advancements and market trends to enhance its competitive position in the freight brokerage industry[30]. - The company may face challenges in managing growth, including increased operational costs and the need for improved systems and controls[120]. - Changes in U.S. trade policy and international tariffs could negatively impact global transportation volumes and customer demand[82]. - The company faces risks related to cybersecurity attacks, which could lead to service interruptions and loss of revenues, potentially harming its reputation and financial condition[100]. - The company relies on third-party services, which may expose it to security incidents that could compromise customer data and negatively impact financial results[105].

Group 1 - The article discusses RXO (NYSE: RXO) and highlights a previous recommendation for a buy rating based on improved visibility to growth, with expectations for growth to accelerate back to 20% by FY26 [1] - The investment approach emphasized is fundamentals-based value investing, focusing on companies with long-term durability and robust balance sheets, rather than merely low multiple stocks [1] - The author acknowledges the risks associated with investing in successful companies, particularly the potential to overpay, but suggests that in certain situations, the growth potential may outweigh immediate price concerns [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - RXO, Inc. reported total revenue of $1.7 billion for Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 15.5% and adjusted EBITDA of $42 million, aligning with guidance [31][28][17] - Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.06, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 2.5% [31][28] - Brokerage volume declined by 6% year over year but increased by 10% sequentially from Q3 [17][52] - Less than truckload (LTL) volume increased by 1%, while full truckload volume decreased by 8% year over year [17][53] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brokerage revenue was $1.3 billion, representing 75% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 13.2% [33][31] - Complementary services revenue was $431 million, accounting for 25% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 21.1% [34][31] - Last mile business generated $290 million, with stops growing by 15% year over year [35][19] - Managed transportation revenue was $141 million, down 8% year over year due to lower automotive volume [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall freight market remains soft, with a muted peak season as anticipated [20][22] - National load-to-truck ratio and industry tender rejections reached their highest levels in over two years, indicating tightening market conditions [21][66] - Contract rates are increasing year over year for the first time in two and a half years, signaling a potential shift towards an inflationary rate environment [23][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The integration of Coyote Logistics is ahead of schedule, with expected annualized cost synergies now estimated at least $50 million, double the initial estimate [6][40] - The company is focused on enhancing its technology platform and cross-selling opportunities to drive future growth [26][59] - RXO, Inc. aims to improve its earnings power and free cash flow through structural changes and operational efficiencies [27][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while the freight environment is currently soft, there are signs of improvement, with expectations for combined brokerage volume to grow year-over-year for the full year [24][28] - The company remains confident in its ability to navigate the current market conditions and capitalize on future growth opportunities [25][28] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining strong relationships with customers and leveraging the expanded service offerings post-Coyote acquisition [116] Other Important Information - Adjusted free cash flow for Q4 was $6 million, representing a 14% conversion from adjusted EBITDA [36] - The company ended the quarter with $35 million in cash, higher than previously guided [37] - The liquidity position is noted as the strongest in the company's history, with a $600 million revolver undrawn at quarter-end [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you define the core RXO, Inc. EBITDA shifts over the past year? - Management discussed seasonal impacts and market backdrop, noting that the integration of Coyote has contributed to shifts in expectations [82][84] Question: What is the outlook for the brokerage market? - Management expressed confidence in the brokerage market's growth, projecting that brokers will capture a larger share over the next five years [90][91] Question: What is the confidence level in volume growth for 2025? - Management indicated strong early returns and customer feedback, supporting confidence in year-over-year volume growth [96][97] Question: How are tariffs affecting business? - Management is closely monitoring tariffs, noting potential short-term tailwinds from inventory pull-forward but longer-term headwinds if tariffs persist [99][100] Question: Can you elaborate on the CapEx spend? - Management clarified that the CapEx guidance includes strategic real estate spend and anticipated reductions in future years [101][104] Question: What has changed regarding synergy estimates? - Management highlighted that synergies have increased due to real estate consolidation and procurement efficiencies [112][114] Question: How is the integration of Coyote progressing? - Management reported strong cultural fit and collaboration, contributing to successful integration and retention of key talent [115][116]

Fourth Quarter 2024 Results February 5, 2025 Non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking statements Non-GAAP financial measures We provide reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures contained in this presentation to the most directly comparable measure under GAAP, which are set forth in the financial tables attached to this presentation. The non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation include: adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization ("adjusted EBITDA"); free ...

Core Insights - RXO reported revenue of $1.67 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 70.5% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) remained unchanged at $0.06 compared to the same quarter last year, with no EPS surprise against the consensus estimate [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65 billion by 0.73% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from truck brokerage was $1.27 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.28 billion [4] - Revenue from complementary services reached $431 million, surpassing the average estimate of $408.06 million [4] - Managed transportation revenue was $141 million, lower than the average estimate of $151.72 million [4] - Last mile revenue was $290 million, exceeding the average estimate of $264.50 million [4] Gross Margin Analysis - Gross margin for complementary services was $91 million, slightly above the average estimate of $89.18 million [4] - Gross margin for truck brokerage was $167 million, also above the average estimate of $164.55 million [4] Stock Performance - RXO shares have returned -0.2% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by 1.7% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market [3]