Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ) ’s share price crashed 17% earlier this month when the company said, based off of its preliminary (unaudited) results, that it badly missed its own top-line guidance. Last week, Super Micro Computer submitted its full earnings sheet which causedAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SMCI, NVDA, AMD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving ...

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer has faced significant challenges, including disappointing fiscal results and weak guidance, leading to a nearly 50% decline in stock value since mid-February 2025 [1][5]. Financial Performance - For fiscal Q3, Supermicro reported a revenue increase of 19% to $4.6 billion, but this fell short of the earlier guidance of $5 billion to $6 billion [5]. - The fiscal Q4 guidance is projected to be between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, which is below the analyst consensus of $6.82 billion [5]. - The company has consistently lowered its revenue guidance over the past year, indicating ongoing operational struggles [3][11]. Gross Margin Issues - Supermicro's gross margin decreased to 9.6% in the latest quarter, down from 11.3% a year earlier, reflecting ongoing pressure in a low-margin business environment [4][8]. - The company anticipates gross margins to remain around 10% in fiscal Q4, showing little sign of recovery [9]. - The decline in gross margins is attributed to increased price competition and tariff pressures, particularly related to the transition in GPU technology [9][8]. Market Dynamics - Customers are delaying platform decisions, impacting sales forecasts, as they evaluate competing GPU technologies from Nvidia [6][7]. - The company operates in a highly competitive industry with limited differentiation, which complicates its ability to maintain margins [8]. Investment Considerations - Despite a low forward price-to-earnings ratio of under 9x based on fiscal-year 2026 estimates, there is uncertainty regarding whether these estimates will need to be revised downward [12]. - While Supermicro could benefit from increased AI infrastructure spending, it operates in a low-margin business and lacks the technological advantages seen in competitors like Nvidia [13].

Core Insights - Supermicro (SMCI) reported a Q3 earnings miss, with gross margins declining to 9.7% and earnings per share (EPS) nearly halved sequentially, yet the stock maintained a key support level at $30 [1] Company Analysis - Leadership & Management: Supermicro has a proven track record in scaling businesses, demonstrating smart capital allocation and insider ownership, alongside consistent revenue growth and credible guidance [1] - Financial Health: The company shows sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow, a strong balance sheet, and a long-term survival runway while avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness [1] Market Positioning - Competitive Positioning: Supermicro benefits from a strong technology moat and first-mover advantage, with network effects driving exponential growth and market penetration in high-growth industries [1] Investment Methodology - Valuation: The analysis includes revenue multiples compared to peers and discounted cash flow (DCF) modeling, ensuring downside protection with significant upside potential [1]

Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: SMCI ) (NEOE: SMCI:CA ) achieved a "V-shaped" recovery, but the shape is upside down. The biggest hurdle preventing the stock from going higher is no longer its SEC compliance issues. Investors are concerned about both macro and microI'm specialized in fundamental equity research, global macro strategy, and top-down portfolio construction. I graduated from UCLA with a degree of Business Economics and UMich Ross School of Business with a Master of Accounting. I'm a senio ...

My last coverage on Super Micro Computer, Inc . ( SMCI ) was published back in March 2025. That article was titled “Super Micro Computer: Bears Need To Check Out Its Inventory (Rating Upgrade).” It As you can tell, our core style is to provide actionable and unambiguous ideas from our independent research. If your share this investment style, check out Envision Early Retirement. It provides at least 1x in-depth articles per week on such ideas.We have helped our members not only to beat S&P 500 but also avoi ...

JR Research is an opportunistic investor. He was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst. He was also recognized by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. He identifies attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially generate alpha well above the S&P 500. He has also demonstrated outperformance with his picks. He focuses on identifying growth investing opportunities that present the most attracti ...

不过，AMD同时警告称，美国政府的出口管制预计将导致其全年营收损失高达15亿美元，再次突显出 口限制对芯片产业带来的重大风险。 英伟达方面则早前披露，由于面向中国市场的H20芯片受到新的许可要求，其第一季度财报中将计入约 55亿美元的存货和采购承诺相关费用。杰富瑞分析师预计，这可能对其营收带来约100亿美元的冲击。 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在周二出席Milken Institute年会时指出，中国市场未来几年对AI芯片的需求预 计将达到500亿美元。 另一家AI服务器制造商超微电脑周二公布财报，收入和盈利均位于指引区间高端，但对于当前季度的 展望却令人失望。公司表示，部分客户因英伟达产品线从旧版Hopper过渡到新版Blackwell而推迟采购 决策。 超微电脑梁见后在电话会议上对分析师表示："我们对中期和长期的增长依然充满信心，特别是 Blackwell产品线的需求非常强劲。"受指引偏弱影响，超微电脑股价周三下跌1.4%。 在市场传出特朗普政府可能放松人工智能芯片出口限制的消息后，英伟达(NVDA.US)股价周三盘中强 势拉升，收盘上涨3.1%。其他半导体股也普遍走高，受益于该项可能颠覆拜登政府政策的市场预期 ...

As we had predicted in our previous coverage on the stock, Super Micro Computer, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: SMCI ) early-year upsurge was poised to dissipate. Recall that the stock had more than doubled in the two weeks following itsAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (ot ...

Shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI -6.10%) are falling on Wednesday. The stock lost 6.7% as of 1:36 p.m. ET, and as much as 7.1% earlier in the day. The leg down comes as the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.24%) gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -0.59%) lost 0.1% on the day.A miss from SupermicroThe artificial intelligence (AI) server provider released its Q3 2025 earnings yesterday after the market closed. The numbers underwhelmed investors.Supermicro reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.31 on re ...

Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or ...