Group 1 - The focus has shifted towards offshore drilling, supply industry, and shipping, including tankers, containers, and dry bulk [1] - The fuel cell industry is being monitored as it is still in its early stages of development [1] Group 2 - The individual has extensive experience in auditing and trading, having navigated significant market events such as the dotcom bubble and the subprime crisis [2] - The research provided aims to maintain high quality despite language barriers [2]

Market Overview - The recent performance of the U.S. stock market shows signs of "false prosperity," with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.75%, largely driven by traditional giants like Boeing and Caterpillar, indicating a "high-low switch" strategy among investors [3] - The Nasdaq's 0.55% increase was primarily supported by Tesla, which alone contributed a 2.15% rise, while other major tech stocks like Amazon and Google experienced slight declines, suggesting a lack of broad market strength [3] Company-Specific Insights - Supermicro's earnings forecast fell short by nearly $1 billion compared to market expectations, leading to a 20% drop in its stock price post-announcement. This event serves as a warning signal for the entire AI server supply chain, impacting stocks like Nvidia and Dell [3] - In the Chinese concept stock market, the Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.3%, but there was significant divergence within the sector. New Oriental saw a rise of over 4% due to favorable trends in vocational education, while Xpeng faced a 6% decline due to tariff issues [3] - Luckin Coffee continues to struggle, reflecting a significant decline in market sentiment towards previously high-flying stocks [3] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market experienced a "Black Tuesday," with oil prices dropping below $60 and gold losing its safe-haven appeal, reflecting global economic "stagflation" expectations [4] - The simultaneous decline in oil and gold prices is attributed to OPEC+ production increases amid weak demand, while a rebound in the dollar is pressuring gold prices [4] Bond Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below 4.17%, and the 2-year yield reached 3.65%, indicating a steepening yield curve that suggests market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [4] - Consumer confidence has dropped to a pandemic low, and job vacancies have decreased for three consecutive months, further supporting the notion of an impending rate cut [4] Strategic Recommendations - The current rally in the U.S. stock market lacks solid foundations, with a focus on upcoming Nvidia earnings to provide clarity [4] - Investors in Chinese concept stocks should focus on policy benefits and earnings certainty, particularly in education and essential consumer sectors [4] - Caution is advised in the commodity market, with recommendations to wait for the OPEC+ June meeting and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision before making significant moves [4]

每经记者 宋欣悦 每经编辑 高涵 点评：亚马逊计划标注商品价格中特朗普关税政策的额外成本，此举或提升消费者对关税影响的认知， 但可能加剧亚马逊与特朗普政府的紧张关系。 NO.2 Meta推出独立AI应用，正面挑战ChatGPT 当地时间4月29日，Meta正式发布对标ChatGPT的AI助手应用Meta AI，该应用将基于Meta的Llama AI模 型运行。据介绍，Meta AI App可通过用户在Meta上分享的信息了解用户偏好，比如个人资料和互动内 容。用户还可以向Meta提供更多个人信息，供未来与AI对话时使用。与ChatGPT一样，Meta AI App支 持语音和文本交互，并额外支持了全双工语音交互，允许在接收语音的同时并行处理和响应，支持边听 边说、实时打断等功能。 点评：Meta推出独立AI应用Meta AI，正面挑战ChatGPT，展现出其在AI领域的雄心，此举有助于巩固 其在AI领域的地位。 NO.3 马斯克：Grok 3.5将在下周发布 ｜2025年4月30日星期三｜ NO.1 亚马逊将展示关税价格？白宫怒斥：这是"敌对政治行为" 据央视新闻，当地时间4月29日，在亚马逊宣布将开始标注特 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 increasing for the sixth consecutive day, closing at 40,527.62 points (up 0.75%) and 5,560.83 points (up 0.58%) respectively [1] - European markets showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.72% and France's CAC40 down 0.24% [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 86.0, the lowest level since May 2020, reflecting growing concerns over tariffs and economic outlook [4] - Job vacancies in the U.S. dropped to the lowest level since September of the previous year, indicating weakened labor demand amid economic uncertainty [5] Corporate Developments - UPS announced a significant layoff of approximately 20,000 employees, marking it as the first major U.S. company to implement large-scale layoffs due to the impact of tariff-related trade slowdowns [9] - Adidas' CEO expressed that U.S. tariff policies are creating uncertainty, affecting the company's ability to adjust revenue and profit forecasts [10] - Walmart decided against disclosing tariff-related costs on product pricing to avoid aggravating the Trump administration, while striving to keep product prices low [10][11] Industry Investments - The U.S. battery industry plans to invest $100 billion over the next decade to establish a fully domestic supply chain, which is expected to create 350,000 jobs [6]

Super Micro shares fell as much as 19% on Tuesday after the server maker announced preliminary results for the fiscal third quarter that were lower than analysts had projected.Here's how the company's preliminary numbers compare with the LSEG consensus:Earnings per share: 29 to 31 cents per share adjusted vs. 54 cents expectedRevenue: $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion vs. $5.50 billion expectedSuper Micro lowered the ranges from earlier guidance for the quarter, which ended on March 31, according to a statement. ...

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer's stock dropped 15% after the announcement of preliminary third-quarter adjusted EPS data, which ranged from $0.29 to $0.31, significantly below analysts' expectations of $0.53 [1] Summary by Category Financial Performance - The preliminary adjusted EPS for Super Micro Computer's third quarter is projected to be between $0.29 and $0.31 [1] - Analysts had anticipated an EPS of $0.53, indicating a substantial shortfall in expected earnings [1] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Super Micro Computer's stock experienced a decline of 15% in after-hours trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - Vertiv (VRT) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) are key players in the AI infrastructure market, which is expected to exceed $200 billion in spending by 2028, presenting significant investment opportunities for both companies [1]. Company Performance - Vertiv shares have declined 24.2% year-to-date (YTD), while Super Micro Computer shares have increased by 21.7%. Since the 90-day tariff pause on April 9, VRT shares have appreciated 18.3%, compared to SMCI's 1.1% [2]. Vertiv (VRT) Analysis - Vertiv's extensive product portfolio includes thermal systems, liquid cooling, UPS, switchgear, busbar, and modular solutions. Organic orders grew approximately 20% in the trailing 12 months, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4 for Q1 2025, indicating strong prospects. The backlog increased by 10% sequentially and 25% year-over-year to $7.9 billion [5]. - In March, Vertiv launched four new systems, enhancing capabilities in infrastructure management, modular deployment, advanced thermal management, and DC power distribution [6]. - Strong capital expenditure plans by hyperscalers for data center expansion are favorable for Vertiv. The company expects net sales for 2025 to be between $9.325 billion and $9.575 billion, up from the previous guidance of $9.13 billion to $9.28 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VRT's 2025 revenues is $9.23 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15.14% [7]. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Analysis - Super Micro Computer is experiencing growth due to the increasing deployment of AI and HPC workloads, with rising demand for its high-performance and energy-efficient servers as data centers expand [9]. - The company leads the Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC) market, having shipped over 3,000 DLC racks in 2024, which is approximately 70% of the global DLC market. SMCI is rapidly expanding its production facilities across Malaysia, Taiwan, Europe, and the United States [10]. - Super Micro Computer has a growing partner base, including Intel and AMD, and utilizes Intel Gaudi 3 accelerators for scalable AI tasks. Its H14 Series servers leverage AMD's EPYC 9005 CPUs and GPU-Accelerated Systems utilize AMD's Instinct MI325X GPUs [11]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vertiv's 2025 earnings is $3.55 per share, down by 1.11% over the past 30 days, indicating a 24.56% increase over 2024's reported figure [12]. - For Super Micro Computer, the consensus estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings has declined by 1.2% to $2.52 per share over the past 30 days, suggesting a 14.03% growth over fiscal 2024 [13]. Earnings Quality - Vertiv has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.42%. In contrast, Super Micro Computer has beaten estimates twice and missed once, with a negative surprise of 1.82% [14]. Valuation Comparison - Both companies are considered overvalued, with a Value Score of D. Vertiv shares are trading at a forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio of 22.57X, while Super Micro Computer's ratio is 11.84X, indicating that SMCI is cheaper than VRT [14][15]. Conclusion - Super Micro Computer benefits from strong momentum from data center and cloud computing clients and is less exposed to tariff concerns compared to Vertiv. Currently, SMCI holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), making it a stronger investment choice compared to Vertiv, which has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [18].

Market Reaction - Semiconductor stocks experienced significant declines, with Wolfspeed dropping 14.6%, NXP Semiconductors down 6.6%, and Rambus falling 4.7% [1] - Other notable declines include ON Semiconductor at 2.4%, Supermicro at 2.3%, and Micron Technology at 1.67% [1] Government Policy Impact - The Trump administration is reportedly working on modifying a rule from the Biden era that restricts most countries from accessing U.S.-designed AI chips [1] - The proposed changes may involve replacing the current tiered system with intergovernmental agreements [1]

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is set to report strong revenue growth in its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, driven by the booming demand for AI infrastructure [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The Server and Storage Systems segment is projected to generate revenues of $5.08 billion in the third quarter, reflecting a 37.4% increase year-over-year [2] - The anticipated growth is primarily fueled by the rising demand for GPU-optimized servers designed for AI workloads [3] - The company's early availability of systems based on NVIDIA's new Blackwell GPU architecture has contributed to this momentum [4] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - Super Micro Computer's leadership in direct liquid cooling (DLC) technology has provided a significant competitive edge, as data centers increasingly adopt these solutions for energy efficiency [5] - The expansion of the company's Datacenter Building Block Solutions has likely enhanced adoption among enterprises and hyperscalers [4] Group 3: Financial Outlook - Despite expected pressure on margins due to customer mix and investments in next-generation platforms, strong revenue growth in the Server and Storage Systems segment is anticipated to mitigate earnings challenges [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - Wall Street has experienced significant volatility in 2025 due to fears of a potential recession and new tariff wars, presenting opportunities for long-term wealth compounding [1][2] Group 2: Nvidia - Nvidia's shares are down nearly 31% from their January peak, yet the business remains strong [3] - The recently launched Blackwell chips significantly enhance AI computing capabilities, generating over $11 billion in revenue during the most recent quarter [4] - Nvidia has transitioned from a gaming-focused company to a full-stack AI infrastructure giant, with a potential addressable AI infrastructure market of around $2 trillion [5] Group 3: Microsoft - Microsoft is a dominant player in AI, with its Azure cloud computing platform driving major growth [6] - The AI-powered Copilot assistant is attracting new customers and increasing usage among large enterprises [7] - Microsoft is trading at 25.9 times forward earnings, below its five-year average of 33 times, presenting a buying opportunity [8] Group 4: Super Micro Computer - Super Micro Computer leads the AI server market and is a beneficiary of the global AI infrastructure market, projected to exceed $200 billion by 2028 [9] - The company anticipates reaching $40 billion in revenues for fiscal 2026, implying around 65% year-over-year growth [9] - Manufacturing capacity is expected to increase, with current utilization rates at 55% in the U.S., 60% in Taiwan, and only 1% in Malaysia [10] Group 5: ServiceNow - ServiceNow's Now platform automates digital workflows, benefiting from the growing digitization trend across various industries [12] - Subscription revenues rose 20% year-over-year, with current remaining performance obligations growing 22% year-over-year [13] - The number of ServiceNow Pro Plus deals quadrupled year-over-year, indicating strong momentum in AI initiatives [14]