Executive Summary & Highlights This section outlines Semtech Corporation's Q2 FY26 financial performance and management insights [Company Overview](index=1&type=section&id=Item%201.1.%20Company%20Overview) Semtech Corporation is a leading provider of high-performance semiconductor, Internet of Things (IoT) systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions, focused on delivering technology for a smarter, more connected, and sustainable planet - Semtech is a leading provider of high-performance semiconductor, IoT systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions[2](index=2&type=chunk)[22](index=22&type=chunk) [Q2 FY26 Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Item%201.2.%20Q2%20FY26%20Financial%20Highlights) Semtech reported record net sales of $257.6 million, representing 20% year-over-year growth, with improved non-GAAP adjusted gross and operating margins, and significantly increased non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS Q2 FY26 Key Financial Highlights | Metric | Q2'26 | Q2'25 | YoY Change | | :-------------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :--------- | | Net sales (million USD) | $257.6 | $215.4 | +20% | | GAAP gross margin (%) | 52.1% | 49.0% | +3.1 pp | | Non-GAAP adjusted gross margin (%) | 53.2% | 50.4% | +2.8 pp | | GAAP operating margin (%) | (6.3)% | 3.6% | -9.9 pp | | Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin (%) | 18.8% | 14.2% | +4.6 pp | | GAAP diluted loss per share (USD) | $(0.31) | $(2.61) | +$2.30 | | Non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS (USD) | $0.41 | $0.11 | +$0.30 | [Management Commentary](index=1&type=section&id=Item%201.3.%20Management%20Commentary) CEO Hong Hou highlighted strong year-over-year financial performance driven by deep customer engagement, operational discipline, and targeted investments, while CFO Mark Lin noted improved cash flows enabling accelerated debt reduction - CEO Hong Hou attributed strong YoY financial performance to deep customer engagement, operational discipline, and a culture of excellence, positioning the company for high-growth opportunities[3](index=3&type=chunk) - CFO Mark Lin emphasized that strong net sales growth and improving profitability resulted in meaningful sequential and year-over-year increases in operating and free cash flows, leading to accelerated debt reduction and a reduced net leverage ratio[3](index=3&type=chunk) Financial Results This section details Semtech's Q2 FY26 financial performance, including GAAP and non-GAAP results, and provides the Q3 FY26 outlook [Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Results](index=2&type=section&id=Item%202.1.%20Second%20Quarter%20Fiscal%20Year%202026%20Results) Semtech reported Q2 FY26 net sales of $257.6 million, a GAAP net loss of $(27.1) million due to a goodwill impairment, and a non-GAAP adjusted net income of $36.7 million GAAP Financial Results (Q2'26 vs Q1'26 vs Q2'25) | Metric | Q2'26 | Q1'26 | Q2'25 | | :-------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :------ | | Net sales (million USD) | $257.6 | $251.1 | $215.4 | | Gross margin (%) | 52.1% | 52.3% | 49.0% | | Operating expenses, net (million USD) | $150.3 | $95.3 | $97.7 | | Operating (loss) income (million USD) | $(16.2) | $36.0 | $7.8 | | Operating margin (%) | (6.3)% | 14.3% | 3.6% | | Interest expense, net (million USD) | $4.7 | $6.2 | $28.1 | | Goodwill impairment (million USD) | $42.0 | — | — | | Net (loss) income (million USD) | $(27.1) | $19.3 | $(170.3) | | Diluted (loss) earnings per share (USD) | $(0.31) | $0.22 | $(2.61) | Non-GAAP Financial Results (Q2'26 vs Q1'26 vs Q2'25) | Metric | Q2'26 | Q1'26 | Q2'25 | | :-------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :------ | | Net sales (million USD) | $257.6 | $251.1 | $215.4 | | Adjusted gross margin* (%) | 53.2% | 53.5% | 50.4% | | Adjusted operating expenses, net* (million USD) | $88.4 | $86.6 | $77.9 | | Adjusted operating income* (million USD) | $48.6 | $47.6 | $30.5 | | Adjusted operating margin* (%) | 18.8% | 19.0% | 14.2% | | Adjusted interest expense, net* (million USD) | $4.1 | $5.0 | $20.5 | | Adjusted net income* (million USD) | $36.7 | $33.9 | $8.1 | | Adjusted diluted earnings per share* (USD) | $0.41 | $0.38 | $0.11 | | Adjusted EBITDA* (million USD) | $56.5 | $55.4 | $40.5 | | Adjusted EBITDA margin* (%) | 21.9% | 22.1% | 18.8% | [Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook](index=2&type=section&id=Item%202.2.%20Third%20Quarter%20Fiscal%20Year%202026%20Outlook) For Q3 FY26, Semtech projects net sales of $266.0 million (±$5.0 million), with non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS of $0.44 (±$0.03) and strong adjusted operating and EBITDA margins Q3 FY26 Non-GAAP Financial Outlook | Metric | Q3'26 Outlook | | :-------------------------- | :-------------- | | Net sales (million USD) | $266.0M (±$5.0M) | | Adjusted gross margin* (%) | 53.0% (±50 bps) | | Adjusted operating expenses, net* (million USD) | $88.8M (±$1.0M) | | Adjusted operating income* (million USD) | $52.2M (±$3.0M) | | Adjusted operating margin* (%) | 19.6% (±80 bps) | | Adjusted interest and other expense, net* (million USD) | $(5.0)M | | Adjusted normalized tax rate* (%) | 15% | | Adjusted diluted earnings per share* (USD) | $0.44 (±$0.03) | | Adjusted EBITDA* (million USD) | $60.0M (±$3.0M) | | Adjusted EBITDA margin* (%) | 22.5% (±80 bps) | | Non-GAAP diluted share count* (million) | 91.6M | Non-GAAP Financial Measures This section defines Semtech's non-GAAP financial measures and provides detailed reconciliations to their GAAP equivalents [Definition and Rationale](index=3&type=section&id=Item%203.1.%20Definition%20and%20Rationale) Semtech uses various non-GAAP measures to supplement GAAP results, excluding items like share-based compensation and goodwill impairment, to provide a clearer view of core operational performance and enhance comparability - Non-GAAP measures exclude share-based compensation, intangible amortization, transaction/integration costs, restructuring, litigation costs, and goodwill impairment[10](index=10&type=chunk)[12](index=12&type=chunk) - Management believes these exclusions provide useful information by reflecting core results and enhancing comparability between periods, despite some excluded items potentially being recurring[11](index=11&type=chunk)[13](index=13&type=chunk)[14](index=14&type=chunk) - A full-year normalized non-GAAP tax rate of **15%** is projected for fiscal year 2026 to reduce quarterly variability and improve comparability[15](index=15&type=chunk) [Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Results](index=11&type=section&id=Item%203.2.%20Reconciliation%20of%20GAAP%20to%20Non-GAAP%20Results) This section provides detailed reconciliations from GAAP to Non-GAAP figures for gross margin, operating expenses, operating income, net income, diluted EPS, and EBITDA across Q2'26, Q1'26, and Q2'25, illustrating the specific adjustments made for each metric [Gross Margin Reconciliation](index=11&type=section&id=Item%203.2.1.%20Gross%20Margin%20Reconciliation) This subsection reconciles GAAP gross margin to non-GAAP adjusted gross margin, detailing adjustments for compensation and amortization | Metric | Q2'26 | Q1'26 | Q2'25 | | :-------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :------ | | Gross margin (GAAP) (%) | 52.1% | 52.3% | 49.0% | | Share-based compensation (%) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | | Amortization of acquired technology (%) | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | | Adjusted gross margin (Non-GAAP) (%) | 53.2% | 53.5% | 50.4% | [Operating Expenses and Income Reconciliation](index=12&type=section&id=Item%203.2.2.%20Operating%20Expenses%20and%20Income%20Reconciliation) This subsection reconciles GAAP operating expenses and income to their non-GAAP adjusted counterparts, outlining various excluded items Operating Expenses, Net Reconciliation | Metric | Q2'26 | Q1'26 | Q2'25 | | :------------------------------------ | :------ | :------ | :------ | | Operating expenses, net (GAAP) (million USD) | $150.3 | $95.3 | $97.7 | | Share-based compensation (million USD) | $(16.7) | $(6.1) | $(16.4) | | Intangible amortization (million USD) | $(0.1) | $(0.1) | $(0.3) | | Transaction and integration related costs, net (million USD) | $(1.2) | $(1.1) | $(1.5) | | Restructuring and other reserves, net (million USD) | $(1.5) | $(1.2) | $(1.5) | | Litigation costs, net (million USD) | $(0.4) | $(0.2) | $(0.1) | | Goodwill impairment (million USD) | $(42.0) | — | — | | Adjusted operating expenses, net (Non-GAAP) (million USD) | $88.4 | $86.6 | $77.9 | Operating Income Reconciliation | Metric | Q2'26 | Q1'26 | Q2'25 | | :-------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :------ | | Operating (loss) income (GAAP) (million USD) | $(16.2) | $36.0 | $7.8 | | Share-based compensation (million USD) | $17.3 | $6.8 | $17.1 | | Intangible amortization (million USD) | $2.4 | $2.4 | $2.6 | | Transaction and integration related costs, net (million USD) | $1.2 | $1.1 | $1.5 | | Restructuring and other reserves, net (million USD) | $1.5 | $1.2 | $1.5 | | Litigation costs, net (million USD) | $0.4 | $0.2 | $0.1 | | Goodwill impairment (million USD) | $42.0 | — | — | | Adjusted operating income (Non-GAAP) (million USD) | $48.6 | $47.6 | $30.5 | [Net Income and EPS Reconciliation](index=13&type=section&id=Item%203.2.3.%20Net%20Income%20and%20EPS%20Reconciliation) This subsection reconciles GAAP net income and diluted EPS to their non-GAAP adjusted equivalents, including tax effects and other adjustments Net Income Reconciliation | Metric | Q2'26 | Q1'26 | Q2'25 | | :------------------------------------ | :------ | :------ | :------ | | Net (loss) income (GAAP) (million USD) | $(27.1) | $19.3 | $(170.3) | | Total Non-GAAP adjustments before taxes (million USD) | $65.3 | $12.9 | $175.6 | | Associated tax effect (million USD) | $(1.7) | $2.7 | $2.8 | | Equity method loss (income) (million USD) | $0.1 | $(1.0) | — | | Adjusted net income (Non-GAAP) (million USD) | $36.7 | $33.9 | $8.1 | Diluted EPS Reconciliation | Metric | Q2'26 | Q1'26 | Q2'25 | | :------------------------------------ | :------ | :------ | :------ | | Diluted (loss) earnings per share (GAAP) (USD) | $(0.31) | $0.22 | $(2.61) | | Adjustments per above (USD) | $0.72 | $0.16 | $2.72 | | Adjusted diluted earnings per share (Non-GAAP) (USD) | $0.41 | $0.38 | $0.11 | [Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation](index=14&type=section&id=Item%203.2.4.%20Adjusted%20EBITDA%20Reconciliation) This subsection provides a reconciliation from GAAP net income to non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, detailing various adjustments | Metric | Q2'26 | Q1'26 | Q2'25 | | :-------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :------ | | Net (loss) income (GAAP) (million USD) | $(27.1) | $19.3 | $(170.3) | | Interest expense (million USD) | $5.2 | $6.6 | $28.6 | | Interest income (million USD) | $(0.5) | $(0.4) | $(0.4) | | Provision for income taxes (million USD) | $4.8 | $8.7 | $4.2 | | Equity method loss (income) (million USD) | $0.1 | $(1.0) | — | | Share-based compensation (million USD) | $17.3 | $6.8 | $17.1 | | Depreciation and amortization (million USD) | $10.3 | $10.2 | $12.6 | | Goodwill impairment (million USD) | $42.0 | — | — | | Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) (million USD) | $56.5 | $55.4 | $40.5 | Supplemental Information This section provides additional context, including webcast details, forward-looking statements, notes on results, and a company overview [Webcast and Conference Call Details](index=3&type=section&id=Item%204.1.%20Webcast%20and%20Conference%20Call%20Details) Semtech hosted a conference call on August 25, 2025, to discuss Q2 FY26 results, with webcast and replay information available on its Investor Relations website - A conference call was held on August 25, 2025, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific time to discuss Q2 FY26 results[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Webcast and supplemental materials are available on Semtech's Investor Relations website, with a replay accessible until September 22, 2025[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements](index=5&type=section&id=Item%204.2.%20Forward-Looking%20and%20Cautionary%20Statements) This section contains standard forward-looking statements regarding future financial and operational performance, subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, cautioning investors against undue reliance - The press release contains forward-looking statements about future financial performance, operational performance, growth trends, and company plans[17](index=17&type=chunk)[18](index=18&type=chunk) - Potential risks include industry volatility, rapid decrease in average selling prices, supply chain disruptions, failure to develop new products, intellectual property issues, R&D investment needs, competition, and difficulties integrating acquisitions like Sierra Wireless[19](index=19&type=chunk) - Investors are cautioned against undue reliance on forward-looking information, which is subject to significant risks and uncertainties detailed in SEC filings[20](index=20&type=chunk) [Notes on Reported Results](index=7&type=section&id=Item%204.3.%20Notes%20on%20Reported%20Results) The reported amounts are preliminary and subject to finalization for the Form 10-Q filing, with specific quarter-end dates defined for Q2'26, Q1'26, and Q2'25 - Reported results are preliminary and subject to finalization for the Form 10-Q filing for the quarter ended July 27, 2025[21](index=21&type=chunk) - Q2'26 refers to the quarter ended July 27, 2025; Q1'26 to April 27, 2025; and Q2'25 to July 28, 2024[21](index=21&type=chunk) [About Semtech](index=7&type=section&id=Item%204.4.%20About%20Semtech) Semtech Corporation (Nasdaq: SMTC) is a leading provider of high-performance semiconductor, IoT systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions, dedicated to delivering technology for a smarter, more connected, and sustainable planet - Semtech Corporation is a leading provider of high-performance semiconductor, IoT systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions[22](index=22&type=chunk) - The company is dedicated to delivering technology solutions for a smarter, more connected, and sustainable planet, serving infrastructure, industrial, and consumer markets[22](index=22&type=chunk) Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited) This section presents Semtech's unaudited consolidated statements of operations, balance sheets, and cash flow information [Statements of Operations](index=8&type=section&id=Item%205.1.%20Statements%20of%20Operations) The unaudited condensed consolidated statements of operations show Q2'26 net sales of $257.6 million and a GAAP net loss of $(27.1) million, significantly impacted by a $42.0 million goodwill impairment charge Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (GAAP) | Metric | Q2'26 | Q1'26 | Q2'25 | | :------------------------------------ | :------ | :------ | :------ | | Net sales (million USD) | $257.6 | $251.1 | $215.4 | | Total cost of sales (million USD) | $123.5 | $119.8 | $109.9 | | Gross profit (million USD) | $134.1 | $131.3 | $105.5 | | Total operating expenses, net (million USD) | $150.3 | $95.3 | $97.7 | | Operating (loss) income (million USD) | $(16.2) | $36.0 | $7.8 | | Goodwill impairment (million USD) | $42.0 | — | — | | Net (loss) income (million USD) | $(27.1) | $19.3 | $(170.3) | | Diluted (loss) earnings per share (USD) | $(0.31) | $0.22 | $(2.61) | [Balance Sheets](index=9&type=section&id=Item%205.2.%20Balance%20Sheets) As of July 27, 2025, total assets were $1,405.9 million, with increased current assets and decreased total liabilities, notably a reduction in goodwill due to an impairment charge Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets | Metric | July 27, 2025 | January 26, 2025 | | :-------------------------- | :-------------- | :--------------- | | Total current assets (million USD) | $614.9 | $585.5 | | Total non-current assets (million USD) | $791.0 | $833.8 | | Total assets (million USD) | $1,405.9 | $1,419.3 | | Total current liabilities (million USD) | $243.1 | $283.0 | | Total non-current liabilities (million USD) | $609.8 | $593.8 | | Stockholders' equity (million USD) | $552.9 | $542.4 | | Total liabilities & equity (million USD) | $1,405.9 | $1,419.3 | - Goodwill decreased from **$533.1 million** to **$492.2 million**, reflecting the impairment charge in Q2'26[27](index=27&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Current portion of long-term debt reduced from **$45.6 million** to zero, contributing to the decrease in total current liabilities[27](index=27&type=chunk) [Supplemental Cash Flow Information](index=10&type=section&id=Item%205.3.%20Supplemental%20Cash%20Flow%20Information) Net cash provided by operating activities significantly improved to $44.4 million in Q2'26, and free cash flow turned positive, reaching $41.5 million, demonstrating strong sequential and year-over-year growth Supplemental Cash Flow Information | Metric | Q2'26 | Q1'26 | Q2'25 | | :------------------------------------ | :------ | :------ | :------ | | Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities (million USD) | $44.4 | $27.8 | $(5.0) | | Net capital expenditures (million USD) | $(2.9) | $(1.7) | $(3.4) | | Free cash flow (million USD) | $41.5 | $26.2 | $(8.4) |

Core Insights - Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is set to report its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 25, with anticipated revenues of $256 million, reflecting an 18.9% increase year-over-year [1][10] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - For the fiscal second quarter, Semtech expects non-GAAP earnings per share to be 40 cents, showing a significant improvement from 11 cents in the same quarter last year [2][10] Performance Drivers - The anticipated strong performance is attributed to growth in infrastructure and high-end consumer markets, as well as robust demand in the wireless sector driven by 5G offerings [3][10] - The launch of cost-optimized 5G solutions, including EM9492 and EM9295 modules, is expected to enhance adoption among telecom carriers [3] - Increased compliance with various certifications for 5G modules is likely to boost their acceptance among global networking carriers [3] - Strong momentum in Signal Integrity and Analog Mixed Signal & Wireless product lines is expected to contribute positively [4] - Demand for Tri-Edge and FiberEdge products in hyperscale data centers is anticipated to aid performance [5] - The growing popularity of LoRa devices and LoRaWAN standards is expected to positively impact top-line growth [6] Challenges - Macroeconomic factors such as prolonged inflation and high interest rates may pose challenges for Semtech in the fiscal second quarter [7] - Tensions between the United States and China could raise concerns, while softness in the industrial end-market and Connectivity segment is expected to negatively affect results [7]

Core Insights - Semtech (SMTC) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.40 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 263.6% [1] - Anticipated revenues for the quarter are projected to be $256.04 million, which represents an 18.9% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their projections [1] Revenue Estimates by Market Segment - Net Sales for the High-End Consumer market are forecasted to reach $36.79 million, showing a slight decline of -0.8% from the prior-year quarter [4] - Net Sales for the Industrial market are expected to be $143.82 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of +14.8% [4] - Net Sales for the Infrastructure market are projected at $75.47 million, suggesting a significant year-over-year increase of +42.6% [4] Revenue Estimates by Reportable Segment - Net Sales for the Signal Integrity segment are predicted to reach $77.92 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +31.1% [5] - Semtech shares have decreased by -5.7% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of +2% [5] - Semtech holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is investigating potential claims against Semtech Corporation due to a class action complaint alleging breaches of fiduciary duties by the board of directors [1][2] Group 1: Class Action Complaint Details - The class action complaint was filed on February 20, 2025, covering a Class Period from August 27, 2024, to February 7, 2025 [1] - Allegations include that Semtech's management made materially false and misleading statements and failed to disclose adverse facts about the company's business and operations [2] - Specific failures include the inadequacy of CopperEdge products for server rack customers, necessary architectural changes, and lower-than-expected sales projections for fiscal 2026 [2] Group 2: Company Information and Contact - Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is a nationally recognized law firm representing investors in complex litigation [4] - Long-term stockholders of Semtech are encouraged to contact the firm for more information regarding their rights and the ongoing investigation [3][6]

Core Insights - SkyWater Technology (SKYT) and Semtech Corporation (SMTC) are positioned to benefit from the growing semiconductor market, particularly as the U.S. increases domestic chip production [1][2] - Semiconductor sales are projected to grow 11.2% year over year, reaching $700.9 billion in 2025 and $760.7 billion in 2026, driven by demand for AI hardware, electric vehicles, and industrial automation [2] SkyWater Technology (SKYT) - SkyWater is enhancing its market position through product innovation and expanded manufacturing capabilities, with a focus on its ThermaView platform for thermal imaging [4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenues of $61.3 million and a gross margin of 24.2%, with advanced computing now accounting for 10% of total revenues [5] - The acquisition of Infineon's Fab 25 is expected to significantly increase SkyWater's capacity, adding approximately 400,000 wafer starts per year and making it the largest U.S.-based pure-play foundry service provider [6] Semtech Corporation (SMTC) - Semtech is experiencing growth in next-gen data center infrastructure, reporting record data center revenue of $51.6 million in Q1 fiscal 2026, a 143% increase year over year [7] - The CopperEdge product line offers over 90% power savings and is designed for high-density AI/ML data centers, with new ICs launched to support advanced connectivity [8] - Semtech's collaboration with major cloud platforms positions its technologies at the core of next-generation compute infrastructure, enhancing its growth potential in AI-centric markets [9][10] Market Performance and Valuation - Both SKYT and SMTC shares have declined year-to-date, with drops of 25.8% and 21.3% respectively, attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment [11] - SMTC shares are currently overvalued with a Value Score of D, while SKYT holds a Value Score of B; SMTC's Price/Sales ratio is 3.87X compared to SKYT's 1.43X [13] - Earnings estimates indicate a projected loss of one cent per share for SKYT in 2025, while SMTC's earnings for fiscal 2026 are estimated at $1.66 per share, reflecting an 88.64% year-over-year increase [16] Conclusion - Both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth trends in the semiconductor market, with SkyWater benefiting from its unique foundry status and Semtech showing stronger near-term visibility due to record data center performance [17][18]

Company Overview - Semtech's shares have increased by approximately 20.2% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 index [1] - The consensus estimate for Semtech has shifted upward by 26.11% in the past month, indicating positive revisions [2] Performance Metrics - Semtech currently holds a Growth Score of A, but has a low Momentum Score of D and a Value Score of D, placing it in the bottom 40% for value investment strategy [3] - The overall VGM Score for Semtech is B, which is a composite score that investors should consider if not focused on a single strategy [3] Future Outlook - The upward trend in estimates suggests a promising outlook for Semtech, leading to a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating expectations for above-average returns in the coming months [4] Industry Comparison - Semtech is part of the Zacks Semiconductor - Analog and Mixed industry, where Analog Devices (ADI) has gained 8.8% over the past month [5] - Analog Devices reported revenues of $2.64 billion for the last quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 22.3%, with EPS rising from $1.40 to $1.85 [5] - For the current quarter, Analog Devices is expected to post earnings of $1.92 per share, representing a year-over-year change of 21.5% [6]

Group 1 - Semtech (SMTC) shares have increased by 2.2% over the past four weeks, closing at $40.23, with a mean price target of $56.33 indicating a potential upside of 40% [1] - The average of 12 short-term price targets ranges from a low of $43.00 to a high of $68.00, with a standard deviation of $8.32, suggesting a variability in analyst estimates [2] - Analysts show strong agreement on SMTC's ability to report better earnings than previously predicted, which supports the potential for stock upside [4][11] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SMTC's current year earnings has increased by 20.4% over the past month, with four estimates rising and three falling [12] - SMTC holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] - While consensus price targets may not be reliable for predicting the extent of gains, they can provide a directional guide for price movement [14]

Industry Overview - The analog/mixed signal semiconductor market is expected to continue growing in 2025, following a strong performance in 2024, despite macro and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to China [1][8] - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) projects an 11.2% growth in semiconductors this year, driven by a 13.4% increase in integrated circuits (ICs) [2] - The Americas are expected to see the fastest growth at 18%, followed by Asia Pacific at 9.8%, Europe at 3.4%, and Japan at 0.6% [3] Market Drivers - Key drivers for growth include artificial intelligence (AI), cloud infrastructure, and advanced consumer electronics [3][15] - The automotive market is influenced by electrification and increased electronics usage in vehicles, with China being a significant driver [5][11] - Industrial end markets are expected to grow due to the adoption of new technologies such as AI, smart cities, and IoT [4] Company Insights - Semtech Corp. (SMTC) focuses on analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for various markets, with a strong emphasis on R&D and margin expansion [28][30] - Semtech's revenue and earnings are projected to increase by 14.2% and 88.6% in 2026, respectively [30] - Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is well-positioned for long-term growth with innovative product development and strong customer engagement [33][34] - ADI's revenue and earnings are expected to grow by 12.5% and 15.8% in 2025, respectively [35] Market Performance - The semiconductor industry has experienced a decline of 15.1% over the past year, while the broader technology sector gained 6.4% [23] - The industry currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 28.21X, which is a premium compared to the S&P 500's 21.86X [26] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, pose risks to the semiconductor supply chain, which is globally distributed [18][19] - The ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including high interest rates and tariff concerns, are impacting demand in the industrial end market [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Semtech Corporation's stock has seen a nearly 9% increase due to renewed optimism from U.S.-China trade talks, although it remains down 33% year-to-date in 2025 [2] Financial Performance - Semtech's quarterly revenues rose 30.1% to $251 million from $193 million a year prior, compared to a 4.8% growth for the S&P 500 [6] - The company's revenue has increased at an average rate of 7.2% over the past three years, outpacing the S&P 500's 5.5% growth [7] - Semtech's revenues expanded 4.7% from $869 million to $909 million in the last 12 months, again against a 5.5% rise for the S&P 500 [7] Profitability Metrics - Semtech's operating income over the last four quarters was $62 million, reflecting a poor operating margin of 6.9%, compared to 13.2% for the S&P 500 [8] - The company's net income was -$162 million, resulting in a net income margin of -17.8%, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 11.6% [8] Valuation Comparison - Semtech has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.4, higher than the S&P 500's 3.0 [7] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio for Semtech is 52.6, compared to 20.5 for the S&P 500 [7] Financial Stability - Semtech's debt stood at $558 million, with a market capitalization of $3.4 billion, resulting in a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 18.3% [9] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $164 million of the total $1.4 billion in assets, giving a cash-to-assets ratio of 11.6% [9] Downturn Resilience - Semtech's stock has experienced more severe declines than the S&P 500 during recent downturns, including an 85.4% drop from its peak in 2021 [11] - The stock's performance during past crises indicates a neutral resilience to downturns [14]

Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow from $631.01 billion in 2025 to $958.93 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.73% during this period, driven by demand for AI and data center technologies [2] - Shipment volume in the semiconductor market is expected to increase from 1.40 trillion units in 2025 to 2.29 trillion units by 2030, at a CAGR of 10.32% [3] AMD Insights - AMD's data center revenues surged 57.2% year over year to $3.674 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for 49.4% of total revenues, driven by the adoption of EPYC processors [4] - The launch of the AMD EPYC 4005 Series processors in May 2025 is aimed at enhancing performance and efficiency for small and medium businesses [6] - AMD's partnerships with major hyperscalers like Oracle and Google Cloud have expanded the use of its EPYC CPUs, contributing to its growth [5] Semtech Insights - Semtech's data center revenues reached a record $51.6 million in Q1 fiscal 2026, up 143% year over year, driven by demand for CopperEdge and FiberEdge products [7] - The launch of the CopperEdge portfolio in April 2025 includes solutions that enable 800G and 1.6T connectivity for AI/ML data centers, focusing on power savings and performance [8] - Semtech has strengthened collaborations with cloud service providers, enhancing its position in next-generation data center infrastructure [9] Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, AMD shares have decreased by 2.8%, while SMTC shares have fallen by 38.5%, attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment [11] - Both AMD and SMTC shares are currently considered overvalued, with AMD trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 5.65X and SMTC at 3.09X [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMD's 2025 earnings is $4.02 per share, reflecting a 21.45% year-over-year increase, while SMTC's fiscal 2026 earnings estimate is $1.66 per share, indicating an 88.64% year-over-year increase [16] Earnings Performance - AMD has consistently beaten earnings estimates over the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.30%, while SMTC has a higher average surprise of 10.83% [17] - Semtech's stronger earnings surprise history and innovative solutions position it as a more attractive investment compared to AMD [18]