Semtech (NasdaqGS:SMTC) FY Conference March 23, 2026 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsMark Lin - Executive Vice President and CFOConference Call ParticipantsScott Stember - Communications AIoT and Edge Compute AnalystScott StemberI'm the Communications AIoT and Edge Compute Analyst at Roth. Over the two days of the 30th annual Roth event, we will have 135 fireside chats, 50 panels. There are over 500 companies presenting here, and they're available for one-on-one meetings. If you have not booked meetings, yo ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semtech achieved record net sales of $1.05 billion for fiscal year 2026, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth [5] - Q4 net sales were $274.4 million, up 3% sequentially and 9% year-over-year [5] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q4 were $0.44, a 10% increase year-over-year, while for the fiscal year, it was $1.71, representing a 94% growth [6][30] - Adjusted gross margin was 51.6%, with total semiconductor products gross margin at 61.7%, up 40 basis points sequentially and 350 basis points year-over-year [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure net sales for Q4 were $86.3 million, up 11% sequentially and 25% year-over-year, with fiscal year sales at $310 million, a 27% increase [8] - Data center net sales reached a record $63 million in Q4, up 12% sequentially and 26% year-over-year, with annual growth of 58% to $223 million [9] - High-end consumer net sales for Q4 were $36.6 million, down 13% sequentially but up 3% year-over-year, with fiscal year sales at $155.1 million, a 5% increase [17] - Industrial net sales for Q4 were $151 million, up 3% sequentially and year-over-year, with full-year revenue at $584 million, a 13% growth [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand for 800G PIA solutions remains strong, with expectations for continued growth throughout 2026 [10] - LoRa revenues for Q4 were $39.6 million, up 7% year-over-year, with full-year revenues at $156 million, representing a 34% growth [19] - The IoT systems and connectivity business recorded Q4 net sales of $89.9 million, up 2% sequentially but down 3% year-over-year, with fiscal year revenues at $354 million, a 9% increase [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of HieFo Corporation is seen as a strategic move to enhance capabilities in high-efficiency Indium Phosphide-based optoelectronic devices, critical for optical transceivers [6][7] - The company aims to optimize its product portfolio and expand domestic capacity, particularly in the data center segment [7][8] - Semtech is focused on accelerating business growth, intensifying R&D investment, and transforming its culture while optimizing its portfolio [25][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning for multi-year growth opportunities, particularly in the AI data center build-out [25] - The outlook for fiscal year 2027 includes expected net sales of $283 million, up 13% year-over-year, with significant contributions from data center growth and high-end consumer products [33] - Management anticipates data center year-over-year revenue growth to exceed 50% in fiscal year 2027, driven by new product ramps [17][88] Other Important Information - The company is making progress on the divestiture of its cellular module business, with increased interest from potential acquirers [8][77] - Semtech's cash and cash equivalents balance at the end of Q4 was $195.2 million, with a net leverage ratio of 1.3, down from 1.5 sequentially [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the initial applications targeted with the HieFo acquisition? - The initial product in production is a gain chip for tunable lasers, with expected contributions to revenue in the high teens for 2027 [40] Question: How should we think about the CapEx line for capacity expansions? - CapEx intensity is moderate, and the company plans to support capacity expansion with free cash flow [44] Question: Can you provide insights on the potential size of the CopperEdge business? - The company is preparing to start shipping to cable manufacturers, but it is still too early to provide specific revenue estimates [50] Question: What is the long-term growth rate expected for LoRa? - The long-term growth rate for LoRa is expected to be approximately 20%, with quarterly sales ranging from $35 million to $45 million [23][56] Question: How will the Indium Phosphide laser acquisition be marketed? - The company plans to provide integrated solutions by co-developing products and offering reference designs to accelerate time to market for customers [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semtech achieved record net sales of $1.05 billion for fiscal year 2024, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth, with Q4 net sales at $274.4 million, up 3% sequentially and 9% year-over-year [5][28] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q4 were $0.44, a 10% increase year-over-year, while for fiscal year 2024, it was $1.71, representing a 94% growth over the prior year [6][30] - Adjusted gross margin for Q4 was 51.6%, with total semiconductor products gross margin at 61.7%, up 40 basis points sequentially and 350 basis points year-over-year [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure net sales for Q4 were $86.3 million, up 11% sequentially and 25% year-over-year, with fiscal year 2024 revenues at $310 million, a 27% increase [8] - Data center net sales reached a record $63 million in Q4, up 12% sequentially and 26% year-over-year, with fiscal year 2024 revenues at $223 million, representing a 58% annual growth [9] - High-end consumer net sales for Q4 were $36.6 million, down 13% sequentially but up 3% year-over-year, with fiscal year 2024 revenues at $155.1 million, a 5% increase [17] - Industrial net sales for Q4 were $151 million, up 3% sequentially and year-over-year, with full-year revenues at $584 million, a 13% growth [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for 800G TIA solutions remains strong, with expectations for continued growth throughout fiscal year 2027 [10] - LoRa revenues for Q4 were $39.6 million, up 7% year-over-year, with full-year revenues at $156 million, representing a 34% growth [19][22] - The IoT systems and connectivity business recorded Q4 net sales of $89.9 million, up 2% sequentially but down 3% year-over-year, with fiscal year 2024 revenues at $354 million, a 9% increase [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of HieFo Corporation is seen as a strategic move to enhance Semtech's capabilities in high-efficiency Indium Phosphide-based optoelectronic devices, critical for data center optical interconnects [6][7] - The company aims to accelerate business growth by supporting customer ramps and intensifying R&D investment to drive new growth drivers and solution differentiation [25][26] - Semtech is focused on optimizing its product portfolio and expanding its domestic capacity to support future growth in the data center market [7][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning for multi-year growth opportunities, particularly in the data center market, driven by the evolution of architectures to 1.6T and 3.2T [25][16] - The company anticipates data center year-over-year revenue growth to exceed 50% in fiscal year 2025, driven by new product introductions and strong demand from hyperscalers [17][88] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining operational flexibility to invest in R&D and strategic acquisitions, ensuring long-term returns for shareholders [31][32] Other Important Information - The company is making progress on the divestiture of its cellular module business, with increased interest from potential acquirers [8][77] - Semtech's cash and cash equivalents balance at the end of Q4 was $195.2 million, with debt remaining unchanged at $503 million [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the initial applications targeted with the HieFo acquisition? - The initial product in production is a gain chip for tunable lasers, with expected revenue contribution in the high teens for 2027, and capacity is currently limited [40] Question: How should we think about the CapEx line for capacity expansions? - CapEx intensity is moderate, and the company plans to support it with one quarter of free cash flow, leveraging both new and used market equipment [44][45] Question: Can you provide insights on the potential size of the CopperEdge business? - The company is preparing to support the ramp and will start shipping to cable manufacturers by April, but it is too early to provide specific revenue figures [49][50] Question: What is the long-term growth rate expected for LoRa? - The long-term growth rate for LoRa is expected to be approximately 20%, with quarterly sales projected to range from $35 million to $45 million [23][56] Question: Can you clarify the go-to-market strategy for the Indium Phosphide laser acquisition? - The acquired fab is vertically integrated, and the company plans to provide chipsets with reference designs to accelerate time to market for customers [61][62]

Group 1: Core Insights - Wall Street is increasingly bullish on Micron Technology, Oracle, and Semtech due to rising demand for AI infrastructure, with analysts raising price targets for all three companies [1] - Micron has the strongest institutional momentum, with Citi raising its price target to $430 from $385 and Susquehanna increasing its target to $525 from $345, driven by strong DRAM and NAND pricing [1] - Oracle's analysts have reset expectations, with Barclays lowering its price target to $230 from $310 and Deutsche Bank cutting its target to $300 from $375, citing cash burn and margin pressures [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Summaries - **Micron**: Reported non-GAAP EPS of $4.78 against an estimate of $3.77, guiding Q2 revenue to $18.70 billion with a gross margin of 68%. Analysts expect DRAM prices to rise 171% in 2026 compared to 2025 [1] - **Oracle**: Q2 revenue of $16.06 billion missed estimates of $16.90 billion, with shares down 24% year-to-date. Remaining performance obligations reached $523 billion, up 438% year-over-year, while IaaS revenue grew 68% year-over-year to $4.08 billion [1] - **Semtech**: Price target raised to $100 from $90, with Q3 results showing record net sales of $267 million and free cash flow rising to $44.6 million year-over-year. Q4 guidance calls for net sales of approximately $273 million [1]

Core Insights - Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund's third-quarter 2025 investor letter indicates that equity markets continued to rise, with the S&P 500 Index increasing by 8.12% during the quarter [1] - The fund's Class A shares underperformed compared to the Russell 2500 Growth Index in the same period [1] Company Overview - Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) specializes in semiconductors, Internet of Things systems, and cloud connectivity solutions [2][3] - As of October 28, 2025, Semtech's stock closed at $70.44 per share, with a market capitalization of $6.112 billion [2] Performance Metrics - Semtech's one-month return was -1.41%, while its shares appreciated by 47.49% over the past 52 weeks [2] - The company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, contributing positively to its stock performance [3] Product and Market Position - Semtech's product portfolio includes high-speed data transfer solutions for data centers, protection products, signal integrity solutions, and wireless sensing technologies [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its optical portfolio to support future 800G and 1.6T AI data centers [4] Hedge Fund Interest - At the end of the second quarter, 37 hedge fund portfolios held Semtech Corporation, a decrease from 40 in the previous quarter [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2, the company reported record net sales of $257.6 million, up 20% year over year and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth [25][27] - Adjusted gross margin was 53.2%, down 30 basis points sequentially but up 280 basis points year over year [25][26] - Adjusted operating income was $48.6 million, resulting in an adjusted operating margin of 18.8%, up 460 basis points year over year [27] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $0.41, up from $0.11 a year ago [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure net sales reached $73.4 million, up 1% sequentially and up 39% year over year, driven by record revenues in the data center business [9][10] - Data center net sales were $52.2 million, up 1% sequentially and up 92% year over year [10] - High-end consumer net sales were $41.2 million, up 16% sequentially and up 11% year over year [17] - Industrial net sales were $143 million, slightly up sequentially and up 14% year over year [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand in the data center market, with expectations for continued growth driven by increased CapEx spending from cloud service providers [41][42] - The industrial end market showed growth in applications including home security systems and smart appliances, with LoRa-enabled solutions net sales at $36.9 million, down 5% sequentially but up 29% year over year [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strengthening its balance sheet, having reduced debt significantly, resulting in an adjusted debt leverage ratio of 1.6, down from 8.8 a year ago [7][30] - The strategy includes rationalizing the portfolio and increasing investment in core assets such as data center, LoRa, and Persei, which have contributed to net sales momentum [7][9] - The company aims to transform into a higher growth and more profitable entity, with a focus on portfolio optimization and strategic investments in R&D [8][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the data center market, citing strong forecasts for 2026 and beyond, despite some caution in the Chinese market due to GPU availability [41][42] - The company anticipates continued strong demand for its fiber edge products and is preparing for significant volume ramps in 2026 [11][12] - Management highlighted the importance of low power and low latency solutions in meeting the increasing bandwidth requirements [12][16] Other Important Information - The company recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $41.9 million from its Connected Services business, reflecting a reassessment of this business's goodwill balance [28][29] - Operating cash flow for Q2 was $44.4 million, up 60% from the previous quarter and up from negative $5 million a year ago [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for LPO opportunities and timing? - Management indicated that LPO deployment is expected to start in Q4, with various customers at different stages of testing and qualification [36][38] Question: How is the general state of data center spending? - Management noted strong conviction among cloud service providers to increase CapEx spending for data center capacity and AI capabilities, with optimistic forecasts for 2026 [40][41] Question: What is the outlook for CopperEdge and broader adoption? - Management reported strong traction with over 20 customers engaged, with expectations for high volume ramps in Q4 or 2026 [46][48] Question: What is the expected performance of LoRa in the coming quarters? - Management expressed confidence in LoRa's demand, expecting quarterly revenue between $30 million to $40 million, driven by new product capabilities [56][58] Question: What are the expectations for the ACC revenue ramp? - Management clarified that the volume ramp for ACC is expected to start in Q4, with specific applications driving demand [94] Question: How does the company view the general business environment and bookings? - Management reported strong booking activities across various segments, indicating positive momentum for future quarters [101][102]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2, the company reported record net sales of $257.6 million, up 20% year over year and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth [25][24] - Adjusted gross margin was 53.2%, down 30 basis points sequentially but up 280 basis points year over year [25] - Adjusted operating income was $48.6 million, resulting in an adjusted operating margin of 18.8%, up 460 basis points year over year [26] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $0.41, up from $0.11 a year ago [28] - The adjusted debt leverage ratio improved to 1.6, down from 8.8 a year ago [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure net sales reached $73.4 million, up 1% sequentially and up 39% year over year, driven by record revenues in the data center business [9] - Data center net sales were $52.2 million, up 1% sequentially and up 92% year over year [10] - High-end consumer net sales were $41.2 million, up 16% sequentially and up 11% year over year [17] - Industrial net sales were $143 million, up slightly sequentially and up 14% year over year [19] - IoT systems hardware business recorded net sales of $64.8 million, up 2% sequentially and up 24% year over year [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand in the data center market, with expectations for continued growth driven by increased CapEx spending from cloud service providers [39] - In China, CSPs showed cautious booking activity due to GPU availability but have recently seen improved bookings [40] - The company is experiencing strong momentum in the 5G market, particularly with IoT transitions from 4G to 5G [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strengthening its balance sheet, having reduced debt significantly and improved its net leverage ratio [6] - There is an emphasis on portfolio optimization and increased investment in core assets such as data center, LoRa, and Persei [6][8] - The company aims to transform into a higher growth and more profitable entity, with a strong focus on R&D to support long-term growth [5][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the data center market's growth cycle, driven by higher data rates and increased demand for fiber edge products [11] - The company anticipates continued strong opportunities in the data center market, despite some caution from CSPs in China [40] - Management highlighted the importance of low power and low latency solutions in meeting the evolving demands of data centers [12] Other Important Information - The company recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $41.9 million from its Connected Services business [28] - The company expects net sales for Q3 to be approximately $266 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the timing for LPO opportunities? - Management indicated that LPO deployments are expected to start in Q4, with some customers at different stages of testing and qualification [36][37] Question: What is the outlook for data center spending? - Management expressed strong confidence in continued data center spending, with CSPs forecasting increased CapEx for 2026 and beyond [38][39] Question: What is the outlook for CopperEdge adoption? - Management reported strong traction with CopperEdge, with several key customers engaged in testing and qualification [46] Question: What is the expected performance of LoRa? - Management expects LoRa revenue to be between $30 million to $40 million quarterly, driven by new applications and enhanced capabilities [56] Question: What are the expectations for ACC revenue? - Management expects ACC revenue to ramp up in Q4, with 100 gig per lane cables leading the initial demand [95] Question: What are the expectations for the Tri Edge business? - Management plans to continue developing the Tri Edge product line, focusing on low power consumption and signal integrity [86][88]

Core Insights - SkyWater Technology (SKYT) and Semtech Corporation (SMTC) are positioned to benefit from the growing semiconductor market, particularly as the U.S. increases domestic chip production [1][2] - Semiconductor sales are projected to grow 11.2% year over year, reaching $700.9 billion in 2025 and $760.7 billion in 2026, driven by demand for AI hardware, electric vehicles, and industrial automation [2] SkyWater Technology (SKYT) - SkyWater is enhancing its market position through product innovation and expanded manufacturing capabilities, with a focus on its ThermaView platform for thermal imaging [4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenues of $61.3 million and a gross margin of 24.2%, with advanced computing now accounting for 10% of total revenues [5] - The acquisition of Infineon's Fab 25 is expected to significantly increase SkyWater's capacity, adding approximately 400,000 wafer starts per year and making it the largest U.S.-based pure-play foundry service provider [6] Semtech Corporation (SMTC) - Semtech is experiencing growth in next-gen data center infrastructure, reporting record data center revenue of $51.6 million in Q1 fiscal 2026, a 143% increase year over year [7] - The CopperEdge product line offers over 90% power savings and is designed for high-density AI/ML data centers, with new ICs launched to support advanced connectivity [8] - Semtech's collaboration with major cloud platforms positions its technologies at the core of next-generation compute infrastructure, enhancing its growth potential in AI-centric markets [9][10] Market Performance and Valuation - Both SKYT and SMTC shares have declined year-to-date, with drops of 25.8% and 21.3% respectively, attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment [11] - SMTC shares are currently overvalued with a Value Score of D, while SKYT holds a Value Score of B; SMTC's Price/Sales ratio is 3.87X compared to SKYT's 1.43X [13] - Earnings estimates indicate a projected loss of one cent per share for SKYT in 2025, while SMTC's earnings for fiscal 2026 are estimated at $1.66 per share, reflecting an 88.64% year-over-year increase [16] Conclusion - Both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth trends in the semiconductor market, with SkyWater benefiting from its unique foundry status and Semtech showing stronger near-term visibility due to record data center performance [17][18]

Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow from $631.01 billion in 2025 to $958.93 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.73% during this period, driven by demand for AI and data center technologies [2] - Shipment volume in the semiconductor market is expected to increase from 1.40 trillion units in 2025 to 2.29 trillion units by 2030, at a CAGR of 10.32% [3] AMD Insights - AMD's data center revenues surged 57.2% year over year to $3.674 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for 49.4% of total revenues, driven by the adoption of EPYC processors [4] - The launch of the AMD EPYC 4005 Series processors in May 2025 is aimed at enhancing performance and efficiency for small and medium businesses [6] - AMD's partnerships with major hyperscalers like Oracle and Google Cloud have expanded the use of its EPYC CPUs, contributing to its growth [5] Semtech Insights - Semtech's data center revenues reached a record $51.6 million in Q1 fiscal 2026, up 143% year over year, driven by demand for CopperEdge and FiberEdge products [7] - The launch of the CopperEdge portfolio in April 2025 includes solutions that enable 800G and 1.6T connectivity for AI/ML data centers, focusing on power savings and performance [8] - Semtech has strengthened collaborations with cloud service providers, enhancing its position in next-generation data center infrastructure [9] Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, AMD shares have decreased by 2.8%, while SMTC shares have fallen by 38.5%, attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment [11] - Both AMD and SMTC shares are currently considered overvalued, with AMD trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 5.65X and SMTC at 3.09X [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMD's 2025 earnings is $4.02 per share, reflecting a 21.45% year-over-year increase, while SMTC's fiscal 2026 earnings estimate is $1.66 per share, indicating an 88.64% year-over-year increase [16] Earnings Performance - AMD has consistently beaten earnings estimates over the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.30%, while SMTC has a higher average surprise of 10.83% [17] - Semtech's stronger earnings surprise history and innovative solutions position it as a more attractive investment compared to AMD [18]

Core Viewpoint - Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is expected to report strong financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with significant year-over-year growth in both net sales and earnings per share. Financial Performance - Semtech anticipates net sales of $250 million (+/- $5 million), reflecting a 21% year-over-year growth, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues at $249.79 million, indicating a rise of 21.20% from the previous year [1][2] - The company expects non-GAAP earnings per share to be 37 cents (+/- 3 cents), while the consensus mark is at 38 cents, showing a robust year-over-year improvement of 533% [2] Market Drivers - The fiscal first-quarter performance is likely to benefit from strength in infrastructure and high-end consumer markets, with strong growth in the wireless end-market attributed to increasing 5G offerings [3] - Continued growth in FiberEdge and Tri-Edge products, especially for 400G/800G modules, is expected to boost revenue [3] - Strong momentum in Signal Integrity and Analog Mixed Signal & Wireless product lines is anticipated to contribute positively, alongside the growing adoption of artificial intelligence [4] - Increased demand for LoRa devices and LoRaWAN standards is expected to positively impact top-line growth, particularly with new product offerings targeting smaller-scale network deployments [5] Challenges - Macroeconomic challenges, including prolonged inflation and high interest rates, may pose difficulties for the company [6] - Delayed adoption of CopperEdge products due to architectural changes in server racks could negatively affect results [6] - Escalating tensions between the United States and China, along with softness in the industrial end-market and Connectivity segment, are expected to be significant negatives [7]