Financial Performance - Suncor's Oil Sands segment adjusted operating earnings for Q4 2025 were $1.129 billion, down from $1.609 billion in Q4 2024, primarily due to lower crude oil price realizations [55]. - Net earnings for Q4 2025 were $1.476 billion, up from $818 million in Q4 2024 [141]. - Gross revenues for Q4 2025 were $12.733 billion, compared to $13.657 billion in Q4 2024 [141]. - Adjusted funds from operations for Q4 2025 were $3.218 billion, compared to $3.493 billion in Q4 2024 [141]. - The company reported a cash dividend of $0.60 per share in Q4 2025, compared to $0.57 in Q4 2024 [194]. - Net earnings for 2025 were $5,918 million, down from $6,016 million in 2024, resulting in basic and diluted earnings per share of $4.85 and $4.85 respectively [222]. - Total revenues for 2025 were $52,377 million, a decrease of 4.6% from $54,881 million in 2024 [214]. Production and Sales - Total Oil Sands bitumen production reached a record 992,700 bbls/d in Q4 2025, compared to 951,500 bbls/d in Q4 2024, driven by strong mining performance [61]. - Net SCO production increased to a record 557,000 bbls/d in Q4 2025, up from 543,600 bbls/d in the prior year quarter, with upgrader utilization rates of 109% at Syncrude and 103% at Oil Sands Base [62]. - Sales volumes of upgraded net SCO and diesel rose to 570,300 bbls/d in Q4 2025, compared to 538,300 bbls/d in Q4 2024, attributed to increased production and inventory draw [65]. - Total Oil Sands production volumes reached 845.4 mbbls/d, up from 812.2 mbbls/d in the prior quarter, reflecting a 4.0% increase [240]. - Total upstream production in Q4 2025 was 909.0 mbbls/d, an increase from 875.0 mbbls/d in Q4 2024 [141]. Costs and Expenses - Total Oil Sands operating expenses increased in Q4 2025, driven by higher commodity input costs and increased production volumes [70]. - Oil Sands operations cash operating costs per barrel decreased to $25.90 in Q4 2025 from $26.55 in Q4 2024, primarily due to increased power sales volumes [78]. - The company reported operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $10.289 billion, down from $11.413 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting cost control measures [194]. - Cash operating costs for Oil Sands operations were $1,119 million for the quarter, compared to $1,142 million in the previous quarter, a reduction of 2.0% [240]. Capital Expenditures and Investments - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 totaled $1.483 billion, slightly down from $1.498 billion in Q4 2024, with significant investments in asset sustainment and maintenance [116]. - The company plans to allocate $5.6 billion to $5.8 billion for capital spending in 2026, with expectations to fund this through cash flow and available credit facilities [188]. - The company’s total capital expenditures for 2025 were $5.856 billion, down from $6.483 billion in 2024 [233]. Debt and Financial Position - Total debt decreased to $9.987 billion as of December 31, 2025, from $10.091 billion at the beginning of the quarter, influenced by favorable foreign exchange rates [128]. - The company reported net debt of $6.337 billion at the end of 2025, a reduction from $6.861 billion at the beginning of the year, representing a decrease of 7.6% [158]. - The current portion of long-term debt was $973 million, a decrease from $997 million in 2024, indicating improved debt management [196]. Market Conditions and Price Realizations - Price realizations for upgraded net SCO and diesel decreased to $80.27/bbl in Q4 2025 from $95.28/bbl in Q4 2024, reflecting weaker crude oil benchmark prices [67]. - The average WTI crude oil price at Cushing was $59.15/bbl in Q4 2025, down from $70.30/bbl in Q4 2024, indicating a significant decline in benchmark pricing [51]. - Price realization per barrel for Oil Sands in Q4 2025 was $70.86, down from $86.32 in Q4 2024, with total sales volumes increasing to 78,574 mbbls from 75,492 mbbls [178]. Future Outlook - Planned maintenance activities are set to commence in Q1 2026 for multiple facilities, impacting 2026 guidance [83]. - Future outlook includes continued focus on capital efficiencies and cost savings, with expectations for stable production rates and commodity prices [184]. - The company expects to maintain existing production levels through the design and construction of new well pads in its In Situ operations [188].

Core Viewpoint - Suncor Energy reported better-than-expected profits for the fourth quarter, driven by increased oil production [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company exceeded profit estimates for the fourth quarter [1] - Higher oil production contributed significantly to the improved financial results [1]

Core Insights - Suncor Energy achieved record financial results in the fourth quarter of 2025, contributing to a record-breaking year, and met its 2024 Investor Day targets a year early, indicating strong operational performance and safety results [3][6]. Financial Highlights - Generated $3.2 billion in adjusted funds from operations and $1.7 billion in free funds flow in Q4 2025 [5]. - Returned approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders, including $775 million in share repurchases and $719 million in dividends [5]. - Net earnings for Q4 2025 were $1.476 billion ($1.23 per common share), compared to $818 million ($0.65 per common share) in Q4 2024 [12]. - Adjusted operating earnings were $1.325 billion ($1.10 per common share) in Q4 2025, down from $1.566 billion ($1.25 per common share) in the prior year quarter [9][10]. Production and Operational Performance - Record quarterly upstream production reached 909,000 barrels per day (bbls/d), an increase of 34,000 bbls/d from the previous year [5][20]. - Refining throughput also set a record at 504,000 bbls/d, up 18,000 bbls/d from the prior year [5][20]. - Total Oil Sands bitumen production increased to 992,700 bbls/d in Q4 2025, compared to 951,500 bbls/d in Q4 2024, driven by strong mining performance [13]. Shareholder Returns and Corporate Strategy - Suncor plans to return 100% of excess funds to shareholders in 2026, projecting $3.3 billion in share repurchases for the year [20]. - The quarterly dividend was increased by approximately 5% to $0.60 per common share [20]. - The company has maintained its corporate guidance for 2026, with no changes announced [15]. Corporate Governance - Jennifer Kneale was appointed to Suncor's Board of Directors on February 3, 2026, bringing extensive experience from the financial services industry [19].

Core Insights - Suncor Energy Inc. is a major integrated energy company in Canada, involved in oil sands development, offshore oil production, and petroleum refining, along with operating the Petro-Canada retail and wholesale distribution networks, including EV charging stations [1] Financial Performance - Suncor is expected to release its quarterly earnings on February 3, 2026, with Wall Street estimating earnings per share (EPS) at $0.77 and projected revenue around $9.03 billion, while Zacks Investment Research forecasts a lower revenue of $8.48 billion, indicating a 5.1% decrease from the previous year [2] - The anticipated EPS of $0.77 reflects a 13.5% decline compared to the same quarter last year, following a strong third quarter where the EPS was $1.07, exceeding expectations [3][6] - The downward revision of the consensus EPS estimate by 0.8% over the past month suggests analysts are reassessing projections due to weaker crude prices and a strong dollar affecting cash flow [3] Market Valuation - Suncor's financial metrics include a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 16.65, a price-to-sales ratio of about 1.73, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of around 1.96, reflecting the market's valuation relative to its revenue and sales [4] - The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.32, indicating a moderate level of debt relative to equity, and a current ratio of about 1.35, demonstrating its ability to cover short-term liabilities with short-term assets [5] - An earnings yield of about 6.01% provides additional insight into Suncor's financial health and investment potential [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts at Raymond James Global Research have revised their outlooks for Canadian oil and gas companies due to changes in commodity prices, leading to lowered price targets for key benchmarks [1] Price Target Adjustments - Price targets for West Texas Intermediate and Western Canadian Select have been reduced by 8% and 10% respectively for Q4 2025, significantly impacting estimates for producers this quarter [1] - Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE:TSX) is the top pick with a price target of $30, while Suncor Energy Inc. (SU:TSX) and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ:TSX) follow, with targets of $73 and $53 respectively [1] Company Insights - Cenovus is expected to focus on integrating MEG Energy post-acquisition, which may limit its performance in the near term despite a strong buy rating [1] - Suncor is noted for having a compelling narrative with positive developments in its in situ business ahead of the March Investor Day [1] - Imperial Oil Ltd. is rated as underperform with a price target of $106, as analysts consider the stock to be relatively expensive [1]

Wall Street analysts forecast that Suncor Energy (SU) will report quarterly earnings of $0.77 per share in its upcoming release, pointing to a year-over-year decline of 13.5%. It is anticipated that revenues will amount to $8.48 billion, exhibiting a decrease of 5.1% compared to the year-ago quarter.Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been adjusted downward by 0.8% to its current level. This demonstrates the covering analysts' collective reassessment of their initial projec ...

Core Viewpoint - Two stocks in the energy sector are showing signs of being overbought, which may concern momentum-focused investors [1]. Group 1: VAALCO Energy Inc (NYSE:EGY) - VAALCO Energy has a recent RSI value of 89.4, indicating it is overbought [2]. - The stock has gained approximately 42% over the past month, reaching a 52-week high of $5.36 [4]. - A Buy rating was initiated by Freedom Capital Markets analyst Sergey Pigarev with a price target of $7.3 [4]. - On the latest trading day, shares of VAALCO Energy rose by 5.7% to close at $5.17 [4]. - The stock has an Edge Stock Rating with a momentum score of 81.87 and a value score of 91.69 [4]. Group 2: Suncor Energy Inc (NYSE:SU) - Suncor Energy has an RSI value of 81.7, also indicating it is overbought [2]. - The stock has increased by around 21% over the past month, achieving a 52-week high of $54.80 [4]. - Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $48 to $54 [4]. - On the latest trading day, shares of Suncor Energy rose by 1.3% to close at $53.69 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Suncor Energy Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 3, 2026, with earnings estimated at 77 cents per share and revenues at $8.5 billion [1]. Group 1: Q3 Performance and Historical Context - In the third quarter, Suncor Energy's earnings per share were $1.07, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents, driven by strong production growth in its upstream segment [2]. - The company's operating revenues for Q3 were $9.2 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.1% [2]. - Suncor has consistently beaten consensus estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.6% [3]. Group 2: Q4 Earnings Estimates and Trends - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward by 7% in the last 30 days, although it indicates a 13.5% year-over-year decrease [3]. - The revenue estimate for Q4 suggests a decline of 5.1% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 3: Operational Insights - Suncor operates in three main segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing, which collectively contribute to its crude oil and natural gas production and product sales [4]. - The company reported record operational performance in 2025, achieving its Investor Day performance targets a year ahead of schedule, which positions it favorably for the upcoming quarter [5]. Group 4: External Factors and Challenges - Despite strong operational execution, Suncor's near-term performance may be affected by external pressures such as weaker crude prices and currency headwinds from a stronger Canadian dollar, which could compress realized pricing and margins [6]. - The Zacks model indicates that Suncor does not conclusively predict an earnings beat this time, with an Earnings ESP of -4.78% [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - A severe winter storm has impacted the entire United States, leading to significant reductions in oil and gas production, with a peak daily decrease of 2 million barrels, representing a 15% drop in national output [2][11]. Oil Production Impact - The Energy Aspects consultancy reported that the peak reduction in U.S. oil production occurred on Saturday, with an average daily decrease of 2 million barrels, primarily from the Permian Basin, which accounted for approximately 1.5 million barrels of the reduction [2][11]. - By Monday, the reduction eased, with the Permian Basin's shutdown scale dropping to an average of 700,000 barrels per day, and full recovery is expected by January 30 [2][11]. - ConocoPhillips reported a reduction of 175,000 barrels per day in the Permian Basin due to the severe weather [2][11]. Operational Challenges - Chevron reported issues at its Midland, Texas facility due to frozen equipment, and the Texas Oil and Gas Association noted significant challenges in third-party transportation, particularly in water transport and technician scheduling [3][11]. - Over twenty companies, including Western Oil and Targa Resources, reported operational failures at their natural gas processing plants and compressor stations in Texas, although the number of failures was significantly lower than during the severe winter storm in 2021 [3][11]. Natural Gas Production - North Dakota's oil production is expected to decrease by 80,000 to 110,000 barrels per day, with associated natural gas production dropping by 240 to 330 million cubic feet [4][12]. - The average daily natural gas production in the U.S. has fallen to 10.69 billion cubic feet, down from a historical high of 10.97 billion cubic feet in December [5][13]. Refinery Operations - Several refineries along the Gulf Coast faced operational issues due to the freezing weather, including ExxonMobil, which closed parts of its facility in Baytown, Texas [5][13]. - The IIR reported that the Suncor refinery in Lima, Ohio, with a capacity of 172,000 barrels per day, experienced mechanical failures, delaying full restart until later in the week [6][14]. Electricity Supply and Demand - The winter storm has caused power outages for over 1 million households and businesses, with approximately 810,000 customers still without power as of Monday [7][16]. - The PJM Interconnection expects a generation interruption of 22.4 gigawatts, about 16% of its total committed capacity, primarily affecting the Mid-Atlantic region [8][17]. - Electricity prices surged, with wholesale prices reaching around $200 per megawatt-hour, having previously exceeded $3,000 [8][17]. Prices in New England spiked by approximately 82% to $313 per megawatt-hour, while prices in Pennsylvania and Maryland surged by about 360% to around $413 per megawatt-hour, the highest since January 2014 [8][17].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment positions held by the analyst in SU and CNQ, indicating a long position in these companies [1]. Group 1 - The analyst has a beneficial long position in the shares of SU and CNQ, either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [1].