Core Viewpoint - Suncor Energy has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock price [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in a company's earnings picture, which significantly influences near-term stock price movements [2][4]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations by institutional investors, resulting in buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [4]. Company Performance and Analyst Sentiment - The recent upgrade reflects an improvement in Suncor Energy's underlying business, suggesting that investors may respond positively by driving the stock price higher [5]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Suncor Energy has increased by 18.1%, although the expected earnings per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025 is projected to be $3.42, representing a year-over-year decline of 13.2% [8]. Zacks Rank System Overview - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks, which have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places Suncor Energy in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

SUNCOR ENERGY Investor Information Q4 2024 Published February 5, 2025 SUNCOR ENERGY Suncor's value proposition Long-life, competitively advantaged assets Regional and vertical integration Operational reliability Disciplined investment & cost management Deliver superior long-term shareholder value SUNCOR ENERGY 2 Suncor key statistics | Market capitalization YE 2024 | $64B | | --- | --- | | Net debt to AFFO 2024 | 0.5x | | Oil sands reserve life index | 2023 26 yrs | | Upgrading capacity | 556 kbpd | | Refin ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Suncor Energy reported a full-year upstream production of 828,000 barrels per day, which is 51,000 barrels per day or 6.5% higher than the previous best year and 82,000 barrels per day or 11% higher than 2023 [11][12] - The total capital expenditure for 2024 was $6.2 billion, more than $200 million below the midpoint of guidance [21] - Free funds flow for 2024 was $7.4 billion, essentially flat with 2023, despite a decrease in the business environment impacting free funds flow by about $1.5 billion year-on-year [21][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Upstream production in Q4 averaged 875,000 barrels per day, including 818,000 barrels per day in Oil Sands, marking the highest quarterly production in company history [34] - Refining throughput for the full year was 465,000 barrels per day, which is 24,000 barrels per day or 5.5% better than the previous best [14] - Refined product sales averaged a record 600,000 barrels per day for the full year, which is 46,000 barrels per day or 8% higher than the previous best [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crude oil prices weakened during Q4, with WTI averaging $70 per barrel, while the light-heavy differential remained steady at $13 per barrel [31] - The refining index averaged $24.25 per barrel, which is $1.80 below Q3, driven primarily by lower cracks [32] - Natural gas prices increased by $0.80 per GJ, averaging $1.45 in the quarter, remaining attractively priced for natural gas consumers [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify gains from 2024 and capture the next tranche of value in 2025, focusing on growing the bottom line and free funds flow to drive increased returns for shareholders [43] - Suncor is committed to returning 100% of excess funds to shareholders, having achieved its $8 billion net debt target early [30][39] - The company is focused on operational improvements and cost management, with a culture that emphasizes discipline and attention to detail [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational performance for 2025, despite planned maintenance activities that may impact production [41][138] - The company is optimistic about the potential for further operational improvements and cost reductions, with ongoing initiatives to enhance production efficiency [96][102] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong focus on fundamentals and executing on commitments to drive shareholder value [40][43] Other Important Information - Suncor successfully completed the base plant cogeneration facility, which will provide integrated steam and power to operations and the capability to export up to 800 megawatts of electricity [36] - The company has made significant progress in its autonomous trucking implementation, with all ore delivery at the base plant now under autonomous operation [78] Q&A Session Summary Question: Does either segment shine more brightly for 2025? - Management indicated that both upstream and downstream segments have potential for improvement, with ongoing efforts to identify and remove production constraints [48][49] Question: Update on Fort Hills mine progression? - Management reported positive developments in the Fort Hills mine, with significant equipment deliveries and progress in transitioning to the center and north pits [70][74] Question: Steps to drive cost controls during major turnarounds? - Management emphasized extensive planning and readiness for the upcoming coke drum replacement project, with a focus on minimizing downtime and optimizing costs [86][90] Question: Potential for lowering all-in breakeven beyond $10? - Management acknowledged the possibility of exceeding the $10 target but emphasized the focus on delivering value rather than recalculating targets at this stage [96][97] Question: Outlook for refining margins? - Management expressed a focus on optimizing operations to succeed in varying market conditions, with potential upside in refining margins anticipated [101][102] Question: Thoughts on Syncrude consolidation? - Management stated that while they are open to opportunities, their current focus is on maximizing value from existing assets rather than pursuing specific consolidations [112][115] Question: Ability to shift cargoes away from U.S. markets? - Management highlighted their integrated asset base, which provides resilience and flexibility in navigating market changes and potential tariff impacts [120][121]

Core Insights - Suncor Energy Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted operating earnings of 89 Canadian cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 Canadian cents, driven by strong production growth in the upstream segment, although it declined from 93 Canadian cents in the same quarter last year due to lower earnings in the downstream segment and increased expenses [1][2] Financial Performance - Operating revenues for the fourth quarter were C$8.9 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.3%, but down approximately 14% year-over-year due to lower commodity prices [2] - The company declared a quarterly dividend of 57 Canadian cents per share, unchanged from the previous quarter, to be paid on March 25, 2024 [2] - Suncor distributed a total of C$1.7 billion to shareholders, including C$1 billion in share repurchases and C$700 million in dividends [3] - Adjusted funds from operations were C$3.5 billion, with free cash flow of C$1.9 billion for the quarter [3] Production and Operational Highlights - Upstream production reached a record 875,000 barrels per day (bbls/d), a 20% increase from 808,100 bbls/d year-over-year, exceeding the consensus estimate of 846,000 bbls/d [6] - Total oil sands bitumen production hit a record 951,500 bbls/d, up from 866,200 bbl/d in the previous year [6] - The company's E&P volume increased 18.5% to 57,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) from 50,700 boe/d year-over-year, also beating the consensus estimate [7] - Refining throughput was near-record at 486,200 bbls/d, with refinery utilization at 104% [4][14] Cost and Efficiency Metrics - Operating cost per barrel decreased to C$26.55 from C$30.80 in the same quarter last year, attributed to higher production and lower commodity costs [10] - Cash operating costs for oil sands operations dropped to C$26.55 from C$30.80, while Syncrude's cash operating costs per barrel decreased to C$32.80 from C$33.85 [11][10] Segment Performance - Downstream segment adjusted operating earnings were C$410 million, down from C$598 million year-over-year, primarily due to lower benchmark crack spreads [13] - Refined product sales increased to 613,300 bpd from 575,500 bpd in the prior-year quarter, driven by higher refinery throughput [13] Financial Position and Guidance - Total expenses rose 6.2% to C$11.4 billion from the prior-year quarter, with cash flow from operating activities amounting to C$5.1 billion [15][16] - Suncor expects upstream production for 2025 to range from 810,000 boe/d to 840,000 boe/d, with cash operating costs for Oil Sands operations anticipated between C$26-C$29 per barrel [17][19] - Total capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be between C$6.1 billion and C$6.3 billion [20]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - Suncor Energy reported quarterly earnings of $0.89 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.82 per share, but down from $0.93 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 8.54% [1] - The company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates for the last four quarters [2] - Suncor Energy's revenues for the quarter ended December 2024 were $8.94 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.35%, compared to $10.39 billion in the same quarter last year [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Suncor Energy shares have increased approximately 6.9% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 2.7% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the next quarter is $0.82 on revenues of $8.17 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.25 on revenues of $32.44 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - Canadian industry, to which Suncor Energy belongs, is currently ranked in the top 35% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact Suncor Energy's stock performance [5][6]

Core Insights - Suncor Energy Inc. reported strong performance in Q4 2024, achieving record production levels and operational efficiency, setting the stage for continued success in 2025 [3][6][7] Financial Highlights - Net earnings for Q4 2024 were Cdn$818 million, down from Cdn$2.820 billion in Q4 2023 [5][12] - Adjusted operating earnings were Cdn$1.566 billion, compared to Cdn$1.635 billion in the prior year [12] - Adjusted funds from operations totaled Cdn$3.493 billion, down from Cdn$4.034 billion year-over-year [12][13] - Free funds flow reached Cdn$1.923 billion in Q4 2024 [8] Operational Performance - Record upstream production of 875,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) in Q4 2024, compared to 808,100 bbls/d in Q4 2023 [6][17] - Refinery utilization was at 104%, with throughput of 486,200 bbls/d, up from 455,900 bbls/d in the prior year [17] - Refined product sales reached a record 613,300 bbls/d, exceeding the previous record of 575,500 bbls/d [17] Shareholder Returns - Suncor returned Cdn$1.7 billion to shareholders in Q4 2024, including Cdn$1 billion in share repurchases and Cdn$700 million in dividends [6][24] - The quarterly dividend was increased by approximately 5% to Cdn$0.57 per share [24] Debt and Financial Position - Net debt decreased to Cdn$6.861 billion from Cdn$9.852 billion year-over-year [36] - Total debt was reported at Cdn$10.345 billion, down from Cdn$11.581 billion [36] Corporate Strategy - The company has committed to returning 100% of excess funds to shareholders following the achievement of its Cdn$8 billion net debt target [24][21] - Suncor is focused on maintaining high performance and operational reliability to achieve free cash flow targets and enhance shareholder value [3][6]

Suncor Energy (SU) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 5, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 82 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $8.56 billion.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced SU’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.Highlights of SU’ ...

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Suncor Energy (SU) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on February 5, 2025, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than ...

Calgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - January 22, 2025) - Suncor Energy (TSX: SU) (NYSE: SU) will release its fourth quarter financial results on February 5, 2025 before 5:00 p.m. MT (7:00 p.m. ET).A webcast to review the fourth quarter will be held on February 6, 2025 at 7:30 a.m. MT (9:30 a.m. ET). Representing management will be Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer and Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer. A question and answer period with analysts will follow brief remarks from management. T ...