We recently published Market in Pain? Not For These 10 Celebrating Stocks. TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ:TMC) is one of the top performers on Tuesday. TMC saw its share prices jump by 9.53 percent on Tuesday to finish at $6.32 apiece on what appears to be an early quarterly window-dressing. The practice is common among institutional investors, namely hedge funds, portfolio managers, and mutual funds, where they tweak portfolios before the reporting periods by loading up on well-performing stocks an ...

Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. rare earth stocks saw significant activity, with United States Antimony (UAMY.US) rising over 20%, USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) and NioCorp Developments (NB.US) increasing over 5%, TMC the metals (TMC.US) up over 3%, and MP Materials (MP.US) gaining nearly 2% [1] Group 2: Company Contracts and Revenue - UAMY announced a contract with the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency for a value of up to $245 million for the purchase of antimony ingots, which is approximately 16 times its projected 2024 revenue of $14.9 million [1] - The company operates one of the only two antimony smelters in North America and is prepared to fulfill the first order immediately [1] Group 3: Antimony Market Insights - Antimony is a strategic minor metal with strong resource scarcity, and domestic restrictions on antimony mining are increasing, while overseas mines face resource depletion [2] - The main future global antimony supply increases are expected from Huayu Mining's Takin project and Russia's Solonechenskoye antimony mine [2] - Traditional demand for antimony in flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, and polyester catalysts is stable, with photovoltaic glass expected to become the second-largest demand sector due to rising installation rates [2] Group 4: Production Forecasts - Polar Gold is a major overseas source of antimony, with a production of 27,100 tons in 2023, accounting for 26% of global output, but expected to drop to 12,700 tons in 2024, reducing its global share to 13% [2] - The production forecast for Polar Gold in 2024 is 8,616 tons in the first half and 4,056 tons in the second half, with annualized production shares of 17% and 8% respectively [2] Group 5: Price Outlook - Antimony prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term due to limited supply increases domestically and abroad, alongside the recovery of compliant antimony exports from China [3] - The cash costs for Polar Gold are projected to increase in 2025, primarily due to a significant decline in antimony production [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - Rare earth concept stocks in the US saw significant activity, with United States Antimony (UAMY.US) rising over 20%, USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) and NioCorp Developments (NB.US) increasing over 5%, TMC the metals (TMC.US) up over 3%, and MP Materials (MP.US) gaining nearly 2% [1] - UAMY announced a contract worth up to $245 million from the US Defense Logistics Agency for the purchase of antimony ingots, which is approximately 16 times its projected revenue for 2024 of $14.9 million [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Antimony is a strategic minor metal with strong resource scarcity, and domestic restrictions on antimony mining are increasing, while overseas mines face resource depletion [2] - The main future global antimony supply increases are expected from Huayu Mining's Tajin project and Russia's Solonechenskoye antimony mine [2] - Traditional demand for antimony in flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, and polyester catalysts is stable, with photovoltaic glass expected to become the second-largest demand sector due to rising installation rates [2] - Polar Gold is a major overseas source of antimony, with production in 2023 at 27,100 tons, accounting for 26% of global output, but expected to drop to 12,700 tons in 2024, reducing its global share to 13% [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Antimony prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term due to tightening supply and recovering exports, with domestic prices likely to increase as compliance with export regulations improves [3] - The cash costs for Polar Gold are projected to rise in 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in antimony production, which is expected to remain low [3] - The overall outlook for antimony prices is positive, with limited supply increases domestically and abroad, supporting a potential upward shift in price levels [3] Group 4: Company Involvement - China Minmetals' subsidiary, Hunan Xikang Mining, controls over 300,000 tons of antimony resources [4] - Jiangxi Copper's product line includes crude antimony and sodium antimonate compounds [5]

Company Overview - TMC the metals company is a Canada-based pre-revenue mining company focused on deep-sea collection of polymetallic nodules containing high levels of nickel, manganese, copper, and cobalt [1] Investment Focus - The company aims to capitalize on the growing demand for metals used in technology and renewable energy sectors, positioning itself as a key player in the mining industry [1] Market Position - TMC operates through its subsidiary, The Metals Company USA LLC, indicating a strategic presence in the U.S. market [1] Investor Profile - The company attracts long-term investors focused on growth markets, particularly in sectors like AI, biotech, and mining, suggesting a diverse investment strategy [1] Growth Potential - TMC is identified as an undervalued stock with significant growth potential, particularly in the semiconductor and mining spaces, appealing to aggressive investors [1]

Company Overview - TMC the metals company is a Canada-based pre-revenue mining company focused on deep-sea collection of polymetallic nodules containing high levels of nickel, manganese, copper, and cobalt [1] Investment Focus - The company aims to capitalize on growth markets, particularly in sectors such as AI, biotech, mining, and shipping, while seeking undervalued stocks with significant potential [1] Market Position - TMC operates through its subsidiary, The Metals Company USA LLC, and is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for metals essential for technology and renewable energy [1]

Company Overview - The Metals Company has seen a significant stock increase of 490% over the past year, with a 437% rise since November 2024, as it aims to lead in deep-sea mining [1][2] - The company operates in the Clarion Clipperton Zone, focusing on mining precious minerals from the ocean floor [3] - It aims to extract polymetallic nodules containing nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese, which are essential for various industries including energy and national defense [4] Regulatory and Market Position - The Metals Company has aligned with U.S. regulations under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act and NOAA, marking a significant de-risking event after over a decade of stagnation [5] - The Trump administration has shown support for deep-sea mining, with an executive order aimed at expediting permitting processes, positioning The Metals Company as a key player in the critical minerals supply chain [6] Financial Position and Projections - The company is currently pre-revenue and raised $37 million in May and $85.2 million from Korea Zinc in June to improve its capital position [9][10] - It projects to begin production in Q4 2027, expecting to generate approximately $600 per dry ton of nodules, with an EBITDA margin of around 43% [10][11] - Over the life of its projects, The Metals Company anticipates undiscounted revenue of approximately $369 billion and EBITDA exceeding $200 billion [11] Future Outlook - The Metals Company is positioned as a first mover in the deep-sea mineral collection industry, targeting a transition from exploration to commercial production by 2027 [12] - The potential for significant profitability exists, but success hinges on obtaining necessary permits and scaling operations effectively [13]

Group 1 - The Metals Company (TMC) has experienced significant volatility in its share price, with a notable surge following an $85.2 million investment from Korea Zinc and a positive compliance confirmation from NOAA [1][2] - TMC reported a second-quarter net loss of $74.3 million, leading to a decline of over 35% in share prices from late July highs [2] - TMC is positioned in a market with a $20 trillion opportunity in seabed mining, specifically targeting critical minerals essential for the green energy transition [4][5] Group 2 - The company holds one of the largest undeveloped sources of critical minerals, specifically nodules located at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean [4] - China currently dominates the supply and processing of critical metals, highlighting the urgency for the U.S. to achieve industrial independence [5] - TMC needs to secure commercial rights and permits to begin mining operations, with production expected to start in the fourth quarter of 2027 [6] Group 3 - TMC currently has approximately $115.8 million in cash but is not generating revenue, indicating a reliance on its cash reserves until commercial operations commence [6] - The investment landscape for TMC may be speculative, with potential volatility in the near term, suggesting that alternative investments like clean energy ETFs may be less risky [7][8]

Group 1: Mining Industry Overview - Mining stocks are typically cyclical and not usually associated with consistent growth, but the demand for metals, especially rare-earth metals, is increasing due to technological advancements [1][2] - The U.S. is focusing on building a domestic rare earth supply chain, which has been largely dominated by Chinese companies [4][5] Group 2: MP Materials - MP Materials operates the only active rare-earth metal mining and processing facility in the U.S. at the Mountain Pass site in California, which is crucial for the domestic supply chain [4][6] - The company specializes in neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), essential for EV motors, wind turbines, electronics, and defense systems [5] - MP is scaling up its processing capacity and aims to control the entire operational chain from mining to magnet production on U.S. soil [6] - Recent partnerships include a $500 million long-term supply agreement with Apple and a $400 million preferred stock deal with the U.S. Department of Defense, establishing a price floor for NdPr oxide [7] - The stock has seen significant growth, up over 340% year-to-date and about 460% year-over-year, although the company reported an adjusted EPS loss of $0.13 [8][9] Group 3: The Metals Company - The Metals Company is pursuing deep-sea mining of polymetallic nodules, which are rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese [10][11] - The company is currently pre-revenue and faces regulatory challenges as the International Seabed Authority has not finalized rules for commercial deep-sea mining [12] - TMC has about $116 million in cash but is burning approximately $20 million quarterly, giving it a runway of five to six quarters before needing additional capital [13] - Despite a recent sell-off, TMC has a market cap of $2 billion, which could be justified if it successfully begins harvesting its mineral reserves [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Metals Company (TMC) is positioned as a potential leader in deep-sea mining, aiming to extract metal-rich nodules from the Pacific Ocean, which could significantly impact the supply chain for clean energy technologies and reduce reliance on Chinese rare-earth sources [3][6][14]. Industry Overview - Rare-earth metals are crucial for various technologies, including electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy systems, but their supply is heavily concentrated in a few countries, particularly China, which controls about 70% of global rare-earth mining and nearly 90% of processing [2][7]. - The U.S. imports approximately 80% of its rare earths, with over 75% sourced from China, highlighting the urgent need for alternative supply sources due to recent export restrictions from China [7]. Company Analysis - TMC plans to operate in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, which contains trillions of polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, manganese, copper, zinc, and cobalt, essential for various applications [6][10]. - The company has secured exploration rights and mapped potential mining sites but faces significant hurdles in obtaining mining permits from the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which is still finalizing its regulations [10][11]. - TMC is attempting to navigate regulatory challenges by applying for a mining permit under an older U.S. offshore minerals law, potentially allowing it to bypass some ISA requirements if national interests are involved [12]. Financial Considerations - TMC is currently pre-revenue, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.1 billion, and reported a net loss of $20.6 million in the first quarter of the year [14]. - The company has about $43.8 million in total liquidity, including $2.3 million in cash, which may diminish quickly without progress on securing mining permits [14]. - For an investor to see a significant return, such as growing a $5,320 investment to $1 million, TMC would need to achieve a 188-fold increase in share price, equating to a compound annual growth rate of 68.8% over ten years, which is highly uncommon in public markets [13].

Group 1 - The Metal Company's transition to the U.S. licensing framework has reduced risks associated with its deep sea mining initiatives [1] - The validation of TMC's move has been supported by recent developments in technology innovation and commercialization within the energy and natural resources sectors [1] Group 2 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of frontier mining, particularly in marine minerals and lunar resources, as well as uranium [1] - The analyst has over 13 years of experience in various sectors, including startups and think tanks, contributing to insights on market movers related to energy security [1]