Core Insights - TOST provides software as a service (SaaS) and hardware solutions specifically tailored for the restaurant industry, indicating a focused market approach [1] Company Overview - TOST operates in a competitive landscape with numerous software firms offering point of sale (POS) payment solutions, but only a select few have achieved significant market presence [1]

Core Insights - Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG) is expanding the rollout of the Toast point-of-sale (POS) system to enhance operational efficiency as venue traffic improves [1][4] - The implementation of Toast has led to faster service and better labor efficiency, contributing to increased spending per visit [1][2] - The rollout is expected to continue through 2026, with full implementation targeted by the end of Q2 2026 [1][4] Operational Efficiency - The POS upgrade is facilitating more effective operations during peak visitation periods, improving service execution and supporting increased traffic from recent value initiatives [2] - Management emphasizes the importance of operational efficiency to maintain venue performance as traffic volumes rise [2] Guest Experience Initiatives - Toast will support initiatives aimed at simplifying the guest experience, including pay-at-bay and mobile food ordering, which will be piloted in Q4 2025 [3] - These features are designed to streamline ordering and payment processes, potentially increasing food and beverage spending per visit [3] Standardization and Scalability - The broader goal of the POS transition is to create a standardized and scalable operating model across Topgolf venues [4] - Early productivity benefits from the rollout suggest that technology will play a crucial role in stabilizing venue-level economics as adoption expands [4] Price Performance and Valuation - MODG shares have increased by 48.8% over the past six months, contrasting with a 1% decline in the industry [5] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.6, which is lower than industry peers like Acushnet Holdings (1.91) and American Outdoor Brands (0.51) [8] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MODG's 2026 loss has narrowed over the past 60 days, indicating potential improvements in financial outlook [10]

Core Insights - Toast (TOST) is undergoing a significant transformation in its financial identity, moving away from a low-margin hardware focus towards a higher-margin software model [1] Group 1: Company Transformation - The company is rapidly shedding its low-margin hardware reputation [1] - There is a clear shift towards much higher-margin software offerings [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience in the stock market and a strong background in political economics, providing unique insights into the macroeconomy [1] - The analyst emphasizes a comprehensive and fundamental approach to identifying investment opportunities [1]

Core Insights - Long-term investors should focus on quality stocks to build sustainable wealth, especially during market volatility [1][2] Group 1: Toast - Toast's shares have decreased by approximately 16% over the last six months due to concerns in the restaurant sector and competitive pressures [4][5] - The company offers a comprehensive cloud-based technology platform for restaurants, creating significant switching costs for customers and providing an economic moat [6][7] - Toast controls only 15% of the U.S. restaurant market, indicating substantial growth potential as it expands into new locations and markets [9] - In Q3 2025, Toast reported revenue of $1.63 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase in annual recurring revenue, and generated GAAP earnings of $105 million [10] Group 2: Chipotle - Chipotle's shares have fallen about 40% over the past year due to a slowdown in customer traffic and multiple sales forecast reductions [11][12] - The company has cut its same-store sales growth forecast for three consecutive quarters, now expecting a decline in the low single-digit range for the full year [13] - Despite rising ingredient costs, Chipotle has chosen not to implement aggressive price increases, which has compressed operating margins [14] - For the first nine months of 2025, Chipotle's total revenue was $8.94 billion, with a net income of $1.2 billion [17] Group 3: Lululemon - Lululemon's shares are down about 45% from a year ago, primarily due to softening demand in the U.S. and impacts from tariffs [18] - International markets, especially China, are becoming key growth drivers, with international revenue increasing by 33% and China by 46% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [19] - Lululemon maintains high gross margins (around 55-58%) and is expanding its product lines, aiming for 35% new product styles by spring 2026 [21] - The company generated $885 million in free cash flow and $1.7 billion in net income over the trailing 12 months, indicating strong profitability [22]

分组1 - The article focuses on the recent performance of Toast (TOST), highlighting two consecutive earnings beats and the company's resilience amidst macroeconomic challenges [1] - The author emphasizes a long-term value investing philosophy, which is adaptable to current market dynamics [1] 分组2 - The author has a beneficial long position in TOST and CAVA, indicating a personal investment interest in these companies [2] - The article is a personal opinion piece, with no external compensation influencing the content [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations and their influence on stock prices, specifically focusing on Toast (TOST) and the average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for the stock [1][5]. Brokerage Recommendation Summary - Toast has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.79, indicating a rating between Strong Buy and Buy, based on recommendations from 29 brokerage firms [2]. - Out of the 29 recommendations, 17 are classified as Strong Buy, while one is classified as Buy, representing 58.6% and 3.5% of total recommendations respectively [2]. Analyst Bias and Investment Decisions - Brokerage firms often exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a higher number of favorable ratings compared to negative ones [6][11]. - The article suggests that relying solely on ABR for investment decisions may not be advisable, as studies indicate that brokerage recommendations do not effectively guide investors towards stocks with high price appreciation potential [5][11]. Zacks Rank Comparison - Zacks Rank is introduced as a more reliable tool for stock evaluation, categorizing stocks from Strong Buy to Strong Sell based on earnings estimate revisions, which have shown a strong correlation with near-term stock price movements [8][12]. - The Zacks Rank is distinct from ABR, as it is based on quantitative models and is updated more frequently to reflect current market conditions [10][13]. Current Earnings Estimates for Toast - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Toast's current year earnings remains unchanged at $1.04, indicating steady analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [14]. - Due to the unchanged consensus estimate and other factors, Toast holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a cautious approach despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [15].

Group 1: Harbor Capital Appreciation Fund Overview - Harbor Capital Appreciation Fund released its Q3 2025 investor letter, focusing on equity securities of U.S. companies with a market capitalization of at least $1 billion [1] - The fund achieved a return of 5.11% in Q3 2025, compared to 10.51% for the Russell 1000® Growth Index and 8.12% for the S&P 500 Index [1] Group 2: Toast, Inc. (NYSE: TOST) Investment Insights - Toast, Inc. is a cloud-based digital technology platform for the restaurant industry, with a one-month return of 8.80% and a 52-week loss of 4.92% [2] - As of December 24, 2025, Toast, Inc. had a stock price of $36.49 and a market capitalization of $21.456 billion [2] - The fund initiated a position in Toast, Inc., highlighting its leadership in cloud-based restaurant technology and its potential for profitable growth due to market expansion and a strong recurring revenue model [3] Group 3: Market Position and Hedge Fund Interest - Toast, Inc. experienced a decline of 7.1% amid a broader market downturn and was held by 56 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, down from 67 in the previous quarter [4] - While acknowledging Toast's potential, the analysis suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4]

Group 1 - Toast, Inc. (NYSE: TOST) was named as a final trade by Joshua Brown, with an upgrade from Neutral to Overweight by JPMorgan analyst Tien-Tsin Huang, maintaining a price target of $43 [1] - Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) is experiencing a bounce, as noted by Stephen Weiss [1] - Uber and Lyft Inc. (NASDAQ: LYFT) have partnered with Baidu Inc.-backed Robotaxi company Apollo Go to introduce self-driving taxis in the U.K. [2] Group 2 - State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLB) was selected by Liz Thomas, with expectations of being the second-best sector in earnings by 2026 [2] - Joe Terranova named State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSE: XBI) as his final trade [3] Group 3 - Toast shares rose 2.9% to close at $37.28 [4] - Uber gained 2.5% to settle at $81.26 [4] - State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF gained 1.2% [4] - State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF climbed 2.4% [4]

Stock Recommendations - Intuitive Surgical is a multi-year compounder with stable revenues and great margins, expected to perform well next year [1] - Dicks Sporting Goods is down 11% from its highs, trading at 11 times earnings, possessing strong franchise excellence and same store sales [1] - Toast appears poised to break a shorter-term downtrend [1] Consumer Sector Analysis - Dicks Sporting Goods is expected to fix Foot Locker [1]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be unfavorable for passive investing, particularly for strategies relying on ETFs that track the broader market, as large-cap stocks are believed to have excessive valuations that could lead to losses [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The large-cap stocks that contributed significantly to the gains in 2025 are expected to face valuation challenges in 2026 [1] - Passive investment strategies may not yield favorable results in the upcoming year, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has extensive experience in covering technology companies on Wall Street and has worked in Silicon Valley, providing insights into current industry trends [1] - The analyst has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017 and has been featured in various web publications, indicating a strong presence in the investment community [1]