Core Insights - Toast, Inc. (TOST) is highlighted as a top investment idea, particularly due to its detachment from the AI trade, which is considered a valuable aspect to monitor [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on acquiring undervalued companies at pivotal moments when their business narratives are shifting towards increased profitability over the next year [2]. - The portfolio is concentrated, typically consisting of 15 to 20 stocks, with an average holding period of 18 months [2]. Group 2: Expertise and Community - The leader of the investment group, Michael Wiggins De Oliveira, has over 10 years of experience in analyzing companies, particularly in the tech and energy sectors, and has built a following of over 40,000 on Seeking Alpha [2]. - The investment group, Deep Value Returns, offers insights through its concentrated portfolio, timely stock updates, weekly webinars, and a supportive community for both new and experienced investors [2].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment potential of Toast, Inc (TOST), described as an "operating system for restaurants" and a fast-growing company [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Toast, Inc is characterized as a fast-growing company with substantial revenue and earnings growth potential that is not fully appreciated in current market prices [1] - The investment strategy focuses on identifying companies that can become multi-baggers over a 5-10 year horizon, with a preference for less cyclical and higher growth sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach emphasizes a long-term holding period, ideally "forever," while maintaining a cautious stance on GAAP unprofitable stocks [1] - The geographical bias of the investment strategy is towards the United States, indicating a focus on domestic market opportunities [1] Group 3: Research and Accountability - Writing is utilized as a tool to crystallize thoughts and maintain rigor in the research process, which also aids in accountability [1] - The article highlights the importance of documenting investment insights, recommending this practice to all active investors [1]

Core Insights - Toast is exploring a checkout-free payment concept for diners, potentially enhancing the guest experience by allowing customers to leave without traditional payment processes [2][3] - The company reported a significant increase in net income and revenue, with a net income of $105 million for Q3, nearly double from the previous year, and a revenue increase of 25% to $1.63 billion [5][6] - Toast's annualized recurring run rate (ARR) surpassed $2 billion for the first time, reflecting a 30% increase from the previous year [6] Company Developments - Toast added 7,500 new locations to its client base, bringing the total to approximately 156,000, and secured partnerships with TGI Friday's and Nordstrom [6] - The company aims to double its market share and is targeting $10 billion in ARR over the next decade, having recently achieved a doubling of its ARR from $1 billion to $2 billion in just two years [7] Industry Context - The checkout-free payment experience has been a long-sought goal for many merchants, with companies like Amazon and Cantaloupe leading the way in frictionless payment systems [4]

RT Jeff Kauflin (@JeffKauflin)Toast’s stock jumps 10% after its earnings report, but investor concerns continue to weigh it down: https://t.co/sXEIctZt7z ...

Core Insights - Toast's shares increased by 10.6% following the release of its Q3 2025 results, which showed mixed outcomes compared to Wall Street expectations [1][7] Financial Performance - Toast reported a 25% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $1.63 billion, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.58 billion [2] - Adjusted earnings per diluted share more than doubled from $0.07 to $0.16, but fell short of the expected $0.24 per share [2][7] Growth Metrics - The company's annual recurring revenues (ARR) grew by 30% year-over-year, indicating strong demand for its subscription-based services [4] - Toast is currently installed in 156,000 restaurant locations, with a potential market of nearly 900,000 client sites in the American market [5] Long-term Outlook - Management emphasizes significant long-term growth potential in the restaurant industry, supported by an expanding product portfolio aimed at increasing revenue per customer [5][6] - Despite a high valuation of 90 times adjusted earnings, Toast remains a favored growth stock due to the demand for improved operational tools in the restaurant sector [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent performance of Toast (NYSE: TOST), highlighting a significant drop in stock price due to pricing reductions [1] Company Overview - Toast is a company that has recently faced challenges, including a considerable decline in stock value since August [1] - The company is involved in the restaurant technology sector, providing solutions that may be impacted by pricing strategies [1] Investment Strategy - The article mentions a family office fund led by Amrita, which focuses on investing in sustainable, growth-driven companies [1] - The fund aims to maximize shareholder equity by aligning with growth-oriented goals [1] Market Context - The newsletter authored by Amrita emphasizes the importance of financial literacy and aims to simplify complex macroeconomic concepts for investors [1] - The focus on democratizing financial knowledge is a key aspect of the investment strategy discussed [1]

Core Viewpoint - Embraer is exploring new products to stimulate long-term growth, but any new initiatives must be evaluated against the company's financial situation as stated by CEO Francisco Gomes Neto [1] Group 1 - The company is focused on studying new products that could enhance its growth trajectory [1] - Financial considerations are crucial in the decision-making process for new product development [1]

Core Insights - Toast (TOST) reported $1.63 billion in revenue for the quarter ended September 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 25.1% and an EPS of $0.25 compared to $0.07 a year ago, exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates [1] - The reported revenue surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.59 billion by 2.6%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.24 by 4.17% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gross Payment Volume (GPV) reached $51.50 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $50.62 billion from three analysts [4] - Subscription Annualized Recurring Run-Rate was $1 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.01 billion from three analysts [4] - Total Annualized Recurring Run-Rate (ARR) was $2.02 billion, surpassing the two-analyst average estimate of $2 billion [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Financial Technology Solutions was $1.35 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $1.31 billion from four analysts, representing a year-over-year increase of 26.1% [4] - Revenue from Subscription Services was $244 million, above the average estimate of $237.92 million from four analysts, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 29.1% [4] - Revenue from Hardware and Professional Services was $44 million, below the average estimate of $46.77 million from four analysts, indicating a year-over-year decline of 10.2% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Toast have returned -3.3% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.1% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Toast (TOST) reported quarterly earnings of $0.25 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.24 per share, and showing significant growth from $0.07 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +4.17% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $1.63 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.60% and increasing from $1.31 billion year-over-year [2] - Toast has outperformed consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters, indicating a positive trend in revenue performance [2] Earnings Outlook - The future performance of Toast's stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently released numbers [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.22 on revenues of $1.6 billion, while the estimate for the current fiscal year is $0.94 on revenues of $6.08 billion [7] Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry, to which Toast belongs, is currently ranked in the top 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable environment for stocks within this sector [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors or through tools like the Zacks Rank [5][6]

Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, approximately 156,000 Locations partnered with Toast, representing a 23% year-over-year increase, processing approximately $186 billion in gross payment volume (GPV) over the trailing 12 months [86]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, gross payment volume (GPV) reached $51.5 billion, a 24% increase from $41.7 billion in the same period of 2024 [90]. - Annualized Recurring Run-Rate (ARR) increased by 30% to $2,016 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $1,554 million in 2024 [90]. - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,633 million, a 25% increase from $1,305 million in the same period of 2024 [96]. - Subscription services revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $244 million, up 29% from $189 million in 2024 [96]. - Financial technology solutions revenue increased by 26% to $1,345 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $1,067 million in 2024 [96]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, net income was $105 million, compared to $56 million for the same period in 2024, representing an increase of 87.5% [111]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $176 million, up from $113 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting a growth of 55.8% [111]. - Free cash flow for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $430 million, significantly higher than $172 million in the same period of 2024, indicating a growth of 150.0% [116]. - The net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $467 million, compared to $213 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 119.7% [116]. Expenses and Costs - Total costs of revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $1,201 million, a 22% increase from $983 million in 2024 [98]. - Operating expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $348 million, reflecting a 21% increase from $288 million in 2024 [100]. - Sales and marketing expenses rose by 21% to $144 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $119 million in 2024 [100]. Shareholder and Capital Information - The company repurchased approximately 2 million shares of Class A common stock for an aggregate amount of $54 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2025 [124]. - As of September 30, 2025, the total fully diluted share count was 629 million, including 587 million Class A and B common stock issued and outstanding [125]. - The company has 21 million options to purchase Class A and B common stock, 17 million unvested restricted stock units, 1 million warrants, and 3 million shares reserved for charitable donations [125]. - The available credit facility increased from $325 million to $346 million as of September 30, 2025, following an amendment to the credit facility [123]. Liquidity and Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, totaled $1,357 million, an increase from $903 million as of December 31, 2024 [118]. - The company believes that existing cash and cash equivalents, along with available borrowing capacity, will be sufficient to meet working capital needs for at least the next 12 months [126]. - The company does not anticipate any material changes in liquidity or cash flows in the near term [122]. - There have been no material changes to expected working and other capital requirements since the last annual report [126]. Market and Credit Risk - The company is exposed to financial market risks, including changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, as well as credit risk on accounts receivable [127]. - The exposure to market and credit risk has not changed materially since the last annual report filed on February 26, 2025 [127]. Other Financial Metrics - The change in fair value of warrant liability for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $7 million, compared to a loss of $1 million in the same period of 2024, indicating a significant change [103].