The Trade Desk ( TTD ) has experienced a massive sell-off after the Q2 earnings release mostly because of a cautious Q3 guidance from the management. I think that TTD is highly likely to outperform in realityI am a highly experienced Chief Financial Officer (CFO) with a strong background in the oilfield and real estate industries. With over a decade of experience in finance, I have led numerous complex due diligence efforts and M&A transactions, both domestically and internationally.In recent years, I have ...

Core Insights - Columbia Threadneedle Investments reported strong market performance in Q3 2025, with a composite return of 12.06%, slightly below the S&P Global 1200 Information Technology Index's return of 12.82% [1] - The fund's positive stock selection contributed to its relative performance during the quarter [1] Company Analysis: The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) - The Trade Desk, Inc. experienced a one-month return of -5.38% and a significant 57.49% decline in share value over the past 52 weeks, closing at $50.28 with a market capitalization of $24.584 billion on October 31, 2025 [2] - Challenges faced by The Trade Desk included cautious guidance, tariff impacts on large-brand spending, rising competition from Amazon, and the departure of the CFO [3] - The company's Kokai AI platform now powers 75% of client spending, with connected TV being the fastest-growing channel, accounting for nearly half of total spending [3] Hedge Fund Interest - The Trade Desk, Inc. was held by 60 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, a slight decrease from 61 in the previous quarter [4] - While The Trade Desk is recognized for its potential, certain AI stocks are viewed as having greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is experiencing accelerating global momentum, with international revenue growth surpassing U.S. performance, indicating successful expansion beyond its core market [1] - International operations accounted for approximately 14% of total spend in Q2 2025, driven by strong adoption of connected TV (CTV) and retail media platforms [1] - The company anticipates that operations outside North America will continue to be a significant growth driver [1] Group 1: International Growth and CTV Performance - TTD's international growth has outpaced North America for nine consecutive quarters, with EMEA and APAC regions contributing to this expansion [1] - CTV remains a key growth driver, with programmatic CTV being highlighted as the "most effective and highest return on ad spend" channel [2] - Video, including CTV, represented a high 40% share of total business, continuing to grow its contribution [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements and Revenue Projections - The Kokai platform, powered by Koa AI, is delivering over 20-point KPI improvements for clients, with spending on Kokai growing 20% faster than among non-users [3] - OpenPath is enhancing transparency in the digital advertising supply chain, boosting advertiser confidence and efficiency [3] - TTD expects third-quarter revenues to reach at least $717 million, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The global digital ad spending market is projected to reach $1,483 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 9.47% from 2025 to 2034, positioning TTD favorably for future growth [4] - However, macroeconomic uncertainties, including rising inflation and supply-chain disruptions, may impact advertising budgets [5] - Intense competition from major players like Google and Amazon, as well as smaller firms like Magnite and PubMatic, poses challenges to TTD's market positioning [6] Group 4: Competitor Analysis - Magnite is enhancing its CTV business through partnerships with major streaming platforms, reporting a 14% year-over-year increase in CTV contributions [7] - PubMatic's growth is driven by CTV and emerging revenue streams, with CTV accounting for nearly 20% of total revenues [8]

Core Insights - The advertising industry is facing significant challenges due to tariffs, inflation, and macroeconomic uncertainty, impacting media budgets and spending strategies of advertisers [1][2][6] - The Trade Desk is experiencing a decline in investor sentiment due to weak fiscal guidance and a substantial drop in share price, despite a year-over-year revenue increase [4][5] Industry Overview - 91% of surveyed ad buyers are concerned about tariffs affecting their media budgets, with 62% to 69% expecting significant impacts on the auto, retail, and consumer electronics sectors [1] - The IAB has lowered the 2025 U.S. ad spend outlook from 7.3% to 5.7%, indicating pressure on ad budgets and intensified competition from major players like Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Amazon [6] Company Performance - The Trade Desk's revenue rose 19% year-over-year to $694 million in Q2 2025, surpassing consensus estimates, but this did not boost investor confidence [5] - The company is guiding for Q3 revenues of $717 million, slightly below consensus estimates, and expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of 38.6%, down from 39% in Q2 [4] Future Prospects - The Trade Desk's Kokai platform, which utilizes AI, is gaining traction, with campaigns showing over 20-point improvements in key performance indicators compared to legacy systems [3][8] - Connected TV (CTV) is a rapidly growing segment for The Trade Desk, accounting for 40% of total revenues in Q2 2025, with expectations for CTV to capture over 40% of global ad spend by 2030 [9][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing pricing transparency through initiatives like OpenPath and Deal Desk, which could provide a competitive edge in the programmatic advertising space [11][12] - The Trade Desk is well-positioned to leverage its AI capabilities and cash reserves of $1.7 billion to fund future growth initiatives [13]

Core Insights - The article discusses two companies, Roku and TTD, which, despite differing business models, are often compared by investors as they operate within the same market space [1]. Group 1: Company Comparison - Both companies are seen as competing for the same audience, indicating a shared market environment [1]. - The analysis aims to provide insights for both novice and experienced investors, emphasizing a clear and reasoned perspective on the companies [1]. Group 2: Analyst's Position - The analyst currently holds no positions in the mentioned companies but may consider initiating a long position in TTD within the next 72 hours [2]. - The article reflects the analyst's personal opinions and is not influenced by any compensation from the companies discussed [2].

Core Insights - India's digital marketing industry has been historically dominated by Meta and Google, which together account for over ₹50,000 crore in annual advertisement revenue, representing 70-90% of the total market share [2][3] - The rise of retail media, particularly in e-commerce and quick commerce, is beginning to disrupt this duopoly, with companies like Amazon and Flipkart generating significant ad revenues [2][3] - The retail media business in India is estimated to be worth $1.5-2.0 billion in 2024, growing to 18% of the total digital advertising market valued at ₹70,000 crore [3][4] Digital Advertising Landscape - Google and Meta's combined advertisement revenue is over ₹53,000 crore, highlighting their dominance in the digital ad space [2] - Retail media is becoming a crucial component of digital advertising, with brands increasingly valuing ads that lead directly to purchases [3][4] - The Trade Desk is emerging as a key player in the retail data space, providing a cross-platform ad layer that leverages first-party data from various retail platforms [4][5] Retail Media Growth - Retail media is now a routine aspect of online advertising, with platforms like Amazon and Flipkart leading the charge [4][5] - The Trade Desk's retail data product allows brands to target users across multiple platforms, enhancing the effectiveness of advertising campaigns [8][9] - Partnerships with companies like BigBasket, Zepto, and Swiggy are expanding the reach and capabilities of retail data utilization [9][12] Data Utilization - Retail data is seen as a valuable asset for brands, enabling them to tailor campaigns based on consumer behavior across different platforms [6][8] - The potential for retail data to enhance advertising strategies is significant, as it allows for more precise targeting and measurement of campaign effectiveness [10][12] - The growth of online retail in smaller cities is expected to enrich the data available for advertisers, further driving the retail media market [11] Future Outlook - As advertising costs on traditional platforms like Google and Meta rise, brands are likely to shift focus towards retail media and first-party data [15] - The evolving landscape of digital advertising suggests that retail data could become a substantial part of India's digital advertising ecosystem [15]

Core Insights - Whales have adopted a bearish stance on Trade Desk, with 70% of detected trades being bearish and only 10% bullish [1] - The trading volume and open interest indicate a price target range for Trade Desk between $40.0 and $57.0 over the last three months [2] - Recent options trading patterns show significant activity, with a total of $189,769 in puts and $154,936 in calls [1] Options Trading Overview - The analysis of options trading reveals that 5 put trades totaled $189,769, while 5 call trades amounted to $154,936 [1] - Significant options trades include a bearish put sweep with a total trade price of $77.3K at a strike price of $55.00, and a bearish call sweep with a total trade price of $38.2K at a strike price of $53.00 [9] Market Position and Analyst Ratings - Trade Desk operates a self-service platform for advertisers to purchase digital ad inventory, generating revenue from fees based on client spending [10][11] - Analysts have issued ratings for Trade Desk, with a consensus target price of $56.0, and individual targets ranging from $53 to $60 [11][12] - The current trading volume for Trade Desk is 1,733,210, with the stock price at $53.79, reflecting a decrease of -0.19% [14]

Group 1: Rowan Street Capital Performance - Rowan Street Capital's third-quarter 2025 performance remained unchanged at +0.22%, with year-to-date returns of +20.4% net of fees, outperforming the S&P 500's +14.8% [1] - Over the past three years, the firm's capital compounded at approximately +54.2% annually, resulting in a cumulative return of +266%, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's +24.9% annualized gain [1] Group 2: The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) Overview - The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) experienced a one-month return of 14.98%, but its shares have lost 54.01% over the last 52 weeks, closing at $53.89 per share with a market capitalization of $26.349 billion on October 22, 2025 [2] - Rowan Street Capital first purchased The Trade Desk in March 2020, and it has compounded at roughly 20% annually; however, it has been the weakest performer in 2025, declining over 50% due to market concerns about growth slowdown [3] Group 3: Management Concerns - Recent management communication from The Trade Desk has raised concerns, particularly regarding CEO Jeff Green's handling of earnings calls, which lacked clarity and accountability [3] - The position of The Trade Desk in Rowan Street Capital's portfolio has declined to about 4.5%, with the company willing to adjust its holding based on future performance [3] Group 4: Hedge Fund Interest - The Trade Desk, Inc. is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 60 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of the second quarter, down from 61 in the previous quarter [4] - While The Trade Desk is acknowledged for its potential, certain AI stocks are considered to offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4]

Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is a technology company valued at $26.4 billion, offering a self-service cloud-based ad-buying platform for digital advertising campaigns [1] - TTD is expected to announce its fiscal third-quarter earnings for 2025 on November 6, with analysts predicting a profit of $0.24 per share, a 26.3% increase from the previous year [2] - For the full year, TTD's EPS is projected to be $0.95, reflecting a 21.8% increase from fiscal 2024, and is expected to rise to $1.29 in fiscal 2026 [3] Performance Analysis - TTD's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 Index, which gained 14.5% over the past 52 weeks, with TTD shares down 54.7% during the same period [4] - The company's performance is attributed to challenges faced by its open-internet model compared to the Walled Garden model, leading to uncertainty about its long-term viability [5] - Following the Q2 results announcement on August 7, TTD's shares fell 38.6% after reporting adjusted EPS of $0.41, which was below Wall Street's expectation of $0.42, despite revenue of $694 million exceeding forecasts [6] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating for TTD, with 16 out of 38 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy," while the average price target is $69.12, indicating a potential upside of 28.3% from current levels [7]

Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) is identified as an overlooked AI stock with a 'Buy' rating from Guggenheim, although the price target has been reduced from $75.00 to $55.00 due to increased competition, particularly from Amazon's demand-side platform [1] - The year 2025 is seen as a transitional period for the company, marked by the launch of the Kokai platform, significant headcount growth, and new leadership [2] - The positive outlook is supported by the growing adoption of programmatic advertising on connected TV platforms and expected contributions from political advertising [3] Company Overview - The Trade Desk, Inc. is a California-based technology company that provides a self-service cloud-based ad-buying platform along with data and value-added services, aiming to enhance advertising relevance for consumers [4] Market Context - Despite the potential of The Trade Desk as an investment, there are suggestions that other AI stocks may offer better upside potential and lower downside risk [5]