Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) shares declined over 9% following the release of its second-quarter earnings report, which revealed challenges in navigating market volatility and led the company to withhold profit guidance [1] Financial Performance - UPS reported second-quarter revenue of $21.2 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 2.8%, but exceeded market expectations [1] - The non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.55, which fell short of the market expectation of $1.57 [1]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) shares fell over 9% to $91.9 following the release of its second-quarter earnings report, which did not provide profit guidance due to market volatility concerns [1] Financial Performance - UPS reported second-quarter revenue of $21.2 billion, a year-over-year decline of 2.8%, but exceeded market expectations [1] - The non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.55, which was below the market expectation of $1.57 [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q2 2025 was $21.2 billion, with an operating profit of $1.9 billion and an operating margin of 8.8% [9][30] - Average daily volume in the U.S. declined by 7.3%, while revenue declined by only 0.8% due to strategic actions taken [12][30] - Diluted earnings per share were reported at $1.55 [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Domestic segment revenue was $14.1 billion, down slightly year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in Amazon revenue [35] - International segment revenue increased to $4.5 billion, up 2.6% year-over-year, despite a 34.8% decline in the China to U.S. trade lane [41] - Supply Chain Solutions revenue fell to $2.7 billion, down $594 million year-over-year, with healthcare logistics growing by 5.7% [42] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. consumer sentiment was near historic lows, impacting the small package market negatively [10] - The China to U.S. trade lane saw a significant drop in volume due to increased tariffs, while trade lanes from China to the rest of the world increased by 22.4% [15][39] - SMBs represented 32% of total U.S. volume, showing a 230 basis point improvement compared to last year [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reducing costs by approximately $3.5 billion this year through efficiency initiatives and network reconfiguration [19][44] - The strategic priority includes growing the international small package business and enhancing healthcare logistics capabilities [16][22] - The company is actively engaging in supply chain mapping assessments to help customers navigate tariff uncertainties [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed concerns about the uncertain macroeconomic environment and its impact on customer demand, particularly for SMBs [24][57] - There is a focus on improving revenue quality and managing the decline in Amazon volume, with expectations for more clarity on tariffs and demand by the end of Q3 [62][64] - The company remains committed to a stable and growing dividend, supported by strong free cash flow [26] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing the largest network reconfiguration in its history, with 155 operations closed and plans for more closures in the second half of the year [44][47] - The attrition rate for employees was lower than expected, impacting cost savings initiatives [59][111] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the lack of guidance a sign that things are worse? - Management indicated that the uncertainty in the market is the reason for not providing guidance, with volume in July showing some improvement but not necessarily indicative of future performance [53][54] Question: What is the outlook for SMBs given the current environment? - Management noted that SMBs are facing challenges due to trade uncertainties and tighter credit conditions, but UPS is helping them navigate these issues through supply chain mapping [86][87] Question: How is the company addressing competition from smaller parcel carriers? - Management emphasized that UPS's end-to-end network and capabilities set it apart from competitors, and the company gained market share despite a competitive environment [78][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for the second quarter was $21.2 billion, with an operating profit of $1.9 billion and an operating margin of 8.8% [6][26] - Average daily volume in the U.S. declined by 7.3%, while revenue declined by only 0.8% due to strategic actions taken [9][10] - Diluted earnings per share were reported at $1.55 [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Domestic segment revenue was $14.1 billion, down slightly year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in Amazon revenue [31] - Average daily volume for Air services decreased by 11.6%, but excluding Amazon, it increased by 1.4% [27] - Groundsaver product volume declined by 23% year-over-year due to pricing actions and a shift in e-commerce volume [17][28] - Healthcare Logistics grew revenue by 5.7%, while UPS Digital, including Roadie and Happy Returns, saw a 26.4% increase in revenue [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The China to U.S. trade lane experienced a 34.8% drop in average daily volume in May and June due to increased tariffs [11][35] - International average daily volume increased by 3.9%, with export volume up by 6.1% year-over-year [34] - The overall U.S. small package market was negatively impacted by low consumer sentiment, leading to a decline in demand [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reducing costs by approximately $3.5 billion this year through efficiency initiatives and network reconfiguration [16][41] - The strategic priority includes growing the international small package business and enhancing healthcare logistics capabilities [13][19] - The company is actively engaging in supply chain mapping assessments to help customers navigate tariff uncertainties [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current operating environment is complex and uncertain due to changing trade policies and consumer behavior [21][24] - There is no forward-looking revenue or earnings guidance provided due to the unpredictability of the market [22][46] - The company remains committed to a stable and growing dividend, supported by strong free cash flow [23] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing the largest network reconfiguration in its history, with 155 operations closed and plans for more closures in the second half of the year [41][44] - The attrition rate for employees was lower than expected, impacting cost savings initiatives [56][102] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the lack of guidance a sign that things are worse or just uncertain? - Management indicated that the uncertainty in the market is significant, leading to the decision not to provide guidance [50][51] Question: How do you feel about progress on cost cuts being enough to exit with domestic margins at double digits? - Management expressed confidence in achieving the $3.5 billion cost reduction target but acknowledged challenges with attrition rates and Groundsaver costs [55][60] Question: When do you expect to fully lap the costs on the trade lane shifts? - Management noted that they are adjusting resources quickly to capture growth in other trade lanes, particularly in Southeast Asia [69][70] Question: How does the company view competition from smaller parcel carriers? - Management acknowledged competition but emphasized the unique end-to-end service offering that sets the company apart [76][80] Question: What are the expectations for SMB results and their challenges? - Management highlighted that SMBs are facing challenges due to trade uncertainty and tighter credit conditions, but the company is providing support through supply chain mapping [86][89]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.13%, S&P 500 futures by 0.30%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.47% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 1.17%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.55%, France's CAC40 up 1.10%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.02% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.07% to $66.76 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.13% to $69.41 per barrel [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is not yet prepared to lower interest rates, with officials divided on the timing and evidence needed for such a decision [5] - The upcoming cryptocurrency policy report from the White House is anticipated to be a catalyst for the crypto market, alongside the Fed's interest rate decision [5] Company News - Oppenheimer raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7100 points, citing easing trade tensions and strong corporate earnings, indicating an 11% upside from the latest closing price [6] - Novo Nordisk lowered its 2025 sales growth and profit expectations, projecting sales growth of 8%-14% compared to a previous forecast of 13%-21% [7] - UnitedHealth's second-quarter earnings guidance fell short of expectations, forecasting adjusted EPS of at least $16, significantly below the analyst consensus of $20.40 [8] - UPS refrained from providing earnings guidance due to market volatility, reporting Q2 revenue of $21.2 billion, a 2.8% year-over-year decline [8][9] - Stellantis restored its earnings guidance but warned of a €1.2 billion (approximately $1.4 billion) tariff impact in the second half of the year [9] - Nomura Holdings reported a 52% year-over-year increase in Q1 net profit, driven by strong trading and investment banking performance [10] - Barclays announced a 23% increase in first-half profits and a $1.3 billion stock buyback plan, benefiting from market trading activity [11] - Whirlpool's Q2 sales fell 5.4% to $3.77 billion, below market expectations, and it lowered its full-year EPS guidance [12] - Philips slightly raised its adjusted operating margin forecast for the year, indicating that the impact of trade tensions was less severe than previously feared [13] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes the US wholesale inventory month-on-month change and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [14][15] - Earnings reports are expected from Visa, Booking, Starbucks, UBS, Rio Tinto, UMC, New Oriental, and HSBC [17]

Financial Performance - UPS's revenue for 2Q25 was $21221 million, a decrease of 27% year-over-year compared to $21818 million in 2Q24[22] - Non-GAAP adjusted operating profit was $1876 million, down 91% from $2064 million in the same period last year[22] - The non-GAAP adjusted operating margin was 88%, a decrease of 70 basis points compared to 95% in 2Q24[22] - Non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS was $155, a decrease of 134% compared to $179 in 2Q24[22] Segment Performance - U S Domestic revenue decreased by 08% year-over-year to $141 billion[37, 40] - U S Domestic non-GAAP adjusted operating profit was $982 million, a decrease of 14% year-over-year[40] - International revenue increased by 26% year-over-year to $45 billion[43] - International non-GAAP adjusted operating profit was $682 million, a decrease of 172% year-over-year[43] - Supply Chain Solutions revenue decreased by 183% year-over-year to $27 billion, primarily due to the divestiture of Coyote[44] Strategic Actions and Outlook - The company expects approximately $35 billion in cost reductions in 2025[27, 48] - Capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $35 billion in 2025[51] - Dividend payments are estimated to be approximately $55 billion in 2025, subject to Board approval[51]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) reported quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56 per share, and down from $1.79 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -0.64% [1] - UPS posted revenues of $21.22 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.77%, but down from $21.82 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, UPS has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - UPS shares have lost about 19.5% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.6% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.60 on $21 billion in revenues, and $7.05 on $87.34 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry, to which UPS belongs, is currently in the bottom 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that UPS's stock may underperform in the near future based on current estimates [5][6]

UPS 业务挑战与应对 - UPS 正在失去 50% 的亚马逊业务，预计在未来六个季度内完成 [1] - UPS 同时失去了来自中国的低成本电子商务业务 (dimminimus business) [2] - 为抵消业务损失，CEO Carol 积极采取措施削减成本，包括关闭设施，这在 UPS 的发展历程中前所未有 [2][3] - 货运需求市场疲软，导致运营杠杆降低，国内利润率约为 7% 左右，国际利润率为 14%，为十多年来的最低水平 [5][6] - UPS 鼓励客户利用其在越南、马来西亚等地的广泛资产 [4] 关税与贸易量变化的影响 - 关税和贸易量变化对 UPS 产生影响 [5] - 货运量的减少将对 UPS 的业绩产生影响 [8] CH Robinson 的业务展望 - CH Robinson 的卡车经纪业务将受益于极低的卡车价格 [7] - 由于货运量减少，其货运代理业务（海运、空运）将受到一定程度的影响 [8]

Exhibit 99.2 United Parcel Service, Inc. Selected Financial Data - Second Quarter (unaudited) | | | | Three Months Ended | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | June 30, | | | | | | | | 2025 | | 2024 | | Change | % Change | | (amounts in millions, except per share data) Statement of Income Data: | | | | | | | | | Revenue: | | | | | | | | | U.S. Domestic Package | $ | 14,083 | $ | 14,201 | $ | (118) | (0.8)% | | International Package | | 4,485 | | 4,370 | | 115 | 2.6 % | | Supply ...

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to release its earnings on July 29, 2025, with historical data indicating a pattern of negative one-day returns following earnings announcements, where the stock has decreased in 60% of cases with a median drop of -6.5% [2][3] Earnings Expectations - Analysts forecast earnings of $1.57 per share on sales of $20.85 billion for the upcoming quarter, representing a decline from $1.79 per share and $21.82 billion in revenue from the same quarter last year, indicating potential challenges for the company [3] Financial Performance - UPS has a market capitalization of $87 billion and generated $91 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $8.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $5.9 billion [4] Historical Earnings Reaction - Over the past five years, UPS recorded 20 earnings data points, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns occurring approximately 40% of the time, which drops to 25% when analyzing the last 3 years [7] Post-Earnings Strategy - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and assess the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after earnings to guide their strategies [6][8]