Key Takeaways UPST trades at a higher P/S multiple than industry peers, even as its shares lag the broader market.UPST posted 71% revenue growth in Q3 as loan demand surged, despite tighter AI-driven approval rates.UPST is expanding beyond personal loans, with auto, home and small-dollar lending gaining traction.Upstart Holdings (UPST) shares are trading at a premium, as suggested by the Value Score of D. In terms of the forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S), Upstart is trading at 3.83X, higher than the Zacks ...

Both companies are democratizing financial services for lower-income consumers.Chime (CHYM +3.74%) and Upstart (UPST +0.58%) are both high-growth fintech companies that serve lower-income customers. Chime offers fee-free digital banking services to customers who might struggle to open accounts at traditional banks, while Upstart uses its AI algorithms to approve loans for borrowers with limited credit histories.Chime went public at $27 this June, but it now trades at about $24. Upstart went public at $20 in ...

Core Insights - Upstart (UPST) continues to execute its vision of utilizing AI to automate consumer lending, with recent quarterly results indicating significant progress across various metrics [1] Company Performance - The latest quarterly results from Upstart demonstrate substantial advancements in its operations, reflecting the effectiveness of its AI-driven approach in the consumer lending sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach between equity and derivatives [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings is positioned as a potential investment opportunity despite a 35% decline in stock value this year, with analysts predicting a possible upside of 91% from current levels [3][14]. Company Overview - Upstart has developed an AI algorithm that evaluates over 2,500 data points to assess borrower creditworthiness, contrasting with the traditional FICO scoring system [2]. - The company aims to provide "always on" access to credit, allowing consumers to secure financing anytime via smartphones, which has led to a significant increase in loan originations [5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Upstart generated $277 million in revenue, a 71% increase year-over-year, although slightly below the forecast of $280 million [9][10]. - The company reported a net income of $31.8 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $6.7 million in the same quarter last year, due to effective cost management [11]. - On an adjusted basis, Upstart's EBITDA was $71 million, reflecting a 26% year-over-year growth [12]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Upstart's loan applications processed autonomously by AI reached 91% in Q3 2025, showcasing the efficiency of its technology [4]. - The company is expanding into automotive lending and home equity lines of credit, with originations in these segments growing fivefold and fourfold, respectively, during the third quarter [6]. - Despite concerns about consumer financial health, Upstart has not observed a significant deterioration in credit strength and has noted improvements in some areas [7]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have mixed ratings on Upstart, with seven buy ratings, six hold ratings, and three sell ratings, but a general consensus that the stock is undervalued [13]. - The average price target among analysts is $55.14, indicating a potential upside of 32%, with a high target of $80 suggesting a 91% increase [14][15].

Market Overview - The recent sell-off in the stock market has created attractive investment opportunities, with stocks expected to finish November down, marking the first down month since April [1][2] - The CBOE Volatility Index has reached a six-month high, indicating increased market fear [1] Economic Indicators - Consumer sentiment has significantly declined, and the labor market has stagnated [2] - The housing market is currently at a standstill, and major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Chipotle have reported an "affordability crisis" affecting discretionary consumer spending [2] Investment Opportunities Figma - Figma's stock has experienced significant volatility, going public at $33 and peaking at $142 shortly after, driven by high demand and a previous acquisition attempt by Adobe valued at $20 billion [4][9] - Despite a decline in stock price following its Q2 earnings report due to concerns over spending, Figma's Q3 revenue rose 38% to $274.2 million, with an adjusted operating profit of $34 million [7][9] - Figma is investing in AI technologies, introducing products like Figma Weave and Figma Make, which leverage generative AI for design purposes [8][9] - The current market cap of Figma is $18 billion, which is below Adobe's previous offer, and its price-to-sales ratio of 17 is considered reasonable given its growth rate [9] Upstart - Upstart, an AI-powered loan originator, has seen its stock decline sharply, similar to other fintech companies, due to rising credit risks and slowing job growth [10][14] - Despite these concerns, Upstart's business remains strong, with loans originated increasing by 128% to 428,056 in the last quarter, and revenue jumping 71% to $277 million [13][14] - The company reported a GAAP profit of $31.8 million, or $0.23 per share, although guidance for Q4 indicates a slowdown in growth [13][14] - Upstart's stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28, and despite credit environment risks, it is viewed as significantly undervalued given its growth potential in the auto and home loan markets [15]

Core Insights - Bank of America warns of explosive growth in prediction markets and sports betting, which may lead to excessive consumer debt and loan defaults [1][2] - The rapid expansion of online betting since the Supreme Court overturned the federal ban on sports betting is creating new credit risks for lenders [1] - The financial pressure from betting losses is particularly significant among low-income consumers, especially young males [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The marketing of gambling products amplifies participation, resulting in rising credit balances and higher loan loss rates [2] - Companies like Bread Financial Holdings, Upstart Holdings, and OneMain Holdings are most vulnerable to the impact of low-income or credit-pressured consumers [2] - The online betting market presents new risks for lenders that have not been historically encountered, necessitating adjustments to underwriting models [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Financial Impact - Recent studies indicate that in states where online gambling is allowed, average credit scores have dropped by nearly 1% and the likelihood of bankruptcy has increased by 28% after four years [1] - A survey cited by Bank of America reveals that 25% of gamblers have missed bill payments, and 45% lack sufficient funds to cover living expenses for three to six months [2] Group 3: Growth of Prediction Markets - Prediction markets have gained popularity by offering binary financial contracts linked to outcomes of elections and sports events, with nominal monthly trading volume exceeding $8.5 billion in October [3] - The growth is largely driven by contracts linked to sports events on platforms like Kalshi, which operates nationwide despite state-level regulatory opposition [3] - The design and gamified interface of these platforms blur the lines between investment and gambling, raising concerns about compulsive behavior and liquidity pressure among young and low-income consumers [3] Group 4: Industry Positioning - Prediction markets claim to offer a fairer model than sports betting companies by providing a neutral trading venue without directly betting against customers [4] - Kalshi's spokesperson emphasizes that their model is federally regulated and offers more transparent pricing, unlike traditional casinos [4] - Polymarket has recently cleared regulatory hurdles to re-enter the U.S. market after reaching a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The AI sector is experiencing renewed interest following strong earnings from NVIDIA and Google's Gemini 3, which has eased investor concerns [1] - Despite two positive trading days, the market remains volatile, with large trading ranges indicating a lack of confidence [1][2] Group 2: Performance of Major Companies - The Magnificent 7, including Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META), are facing challenges as 2025 approaches, with gains increasingly concentrated among AI-focused companies [2] - Bank stocks like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America have shown significant gains in 2025, but underlying issues exist within the sector [3] Group 3: Fintech Sector Challenges - Fintech companies are struggling to keep pace with traditional banks, with many experiencing stock declines in the latter half of the year [4] - PayPal Holdings Inc. has seen a dramatic decline in stock value, dropping from $308 to current levels, despite maintaining a $56 billion market cap and over $32 billion in annual sales [5][7] - Toast Inc. has lost momentum after reaching a high of $45, now trading at 85 times forward earnings, raising valuation concerns [9][11] Group 4: Cryptocurrency and Related Companies - Coinbase Global Inc. is facing challenges as it closely tracks Bitcoin's price, with a more than 25% decline in the last month amid falling crypto prices [12][14] - Upstart Holdings Inc. has struggled despite its AI-driven credit assessment platform, with shares down nearly 90% since the Fed's rate hikes, and currently trading at over 170 times earnings [15][17] Group 5: E-commerce and BNPL Services - Affirm Holdings has seen its stock triple since the end of 2023, driven by the popularity of its Buy Now, Pay Later services, but recent earnings reports have shown significant misses [18][19]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) and Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) are key players in the AI-driven lending ecosystem, with distinct operational models [1] - Pagaya operates as a B2B enabler, while Upstart functions closer to a traditional lending marketplace [1] Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) - Pagaya has a capital-light operating model, reducing exposure to credit risk and enhancing scalability [3] - The company has diversified its loan offerings beyond personal loans to include auto lending and point-of-sale financing, improving resilience across economic cycles [5] - Pagaya has established a network of over 135 institutional partners and utilizes forward flow agreements to ensure funding stability [5][7] - The company has raised over $4 billion to fund personal loans in 2025, including a recent forward flow agreement for up to $500 million in auto loans [8] - Pagaya has achieved three consecutive quarters of positive GAAP net income, marking a turnaround from previous losses [9] - The stock has gained 49.9% over the last six months, outperforming Upstart, which has lost 13.7% [16] - Pagaya's return on equity (ROE) stands at 44.45%, significantly higher than Upstart's 23.54% [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year revenue growth of 28.4% and 19.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth of 273.5% and 10% [20] Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) - Upstart utilizes machine learning to evaluate non-traditional data points for loan approvals, allowing for a broader range of borrowers [2] - The company has expanded into auto lending and is exploring small business loans and mortgages to diversify revenue streams [12] - Upstart's AI models detected rising risk, leading to tightened loan approvals and a decrease in conversion rates from 23.9% to 20.6% [14] - The company reported its best quarter for new bank and credit union partners, adding seven partners and reaching an all-time high in available monthly funding [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Upstart indicates revenue growth of 62.8% and 15.9% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth of 940% and 57.7% [24] Comparative Analysis - Pagaya's valuation is more favorable, trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) of 3.51X compared to Upstart's 5.10X [17] - Pagaya's flexible, capital-light model and strong funding network position it for long-term growth, while Upstart's model is more susceptible to credit cycles and capital market fluctuations [26][27]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings emphasizes the use of real-time data and AI for credit underwriting, leveraging over 98 million repayment events to enhance model accuracy [1] - The company has observed early signs of rising risk in Q3, leading to tighter approval processes and a decrease in conversion rates from 23.9% to 20.6% [2] - Upstart is refining its calibration tools to reduce conversion volatility by approximately 50%, aiming for a more stable approval pipeline [3] Company Developments - Upstart is diversifying its offerings beyond unsecured personal loans, with growth in auto, home, and small-dollar products supported by advancements in property valuations and AI for document verification [4] - Despite management's confidence in new calibrations, investor concerns about approval volatility persist, compounded by sensitivity to macroeconomic trends like interest rates [5] Peer Comparisons - LendingClub Corporation reported a 37% year-over-year increase in loan originations to $2.6 billion and a 32% rise in revenues to $266.2 million, showcasing strong profitability with a 12.4% return on equity [6] - SoFi Technologies, Inc. achieved record net revenues of $961.6 million in Q3, a 38% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 49% to $276.9 million and a 35% growth in its member base [7] Market Performance - Upstart's shares have declined by 22% over the past six months, underperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 [8] - The company's current valuation indicates it is overvalued, with a Price/Sales ratio of 2.95X, aligning with the industry average [10] Earnings Estimates - The full-year 2025 Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has been revised upward, while the 2026 estimate has seen downward revisions, though both suggest significant year-over-year increases [11]