Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) and Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) are key players in the AI-driven lending ecosystem, with distinct operational models [1] - Pagaya operates as a B2B enabler, while Upstart functions closer to a traditional lending marketplace [1] Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) - Pagaya has a capital-light operating model, reducing exposure to credit risk and enhancing scalability [3] - The company has diversified its loan offerings beyond personal loans to include auto lending and point-of-sale financing, improving resilience across economic cycles [5] - Pagaya has established a network of over 135 institutional partners and utilizes forward flow agreements to ensure funding stability [5][7] - The company has raised over $4 billion to fund personal loans in 2025, including a recent forward flow agreement for up to $500 million in auto loans [8] - Pagaya has achieved three consecutive quarters of positive GAAP net income, marking a turnaround from previous losses [9] - The stock has gained 49.9% over the last six months, outperforming Upstart, which has lost 13.7% [16] - Pagaya's return on equity (ROE) stands at 44.45%, significantly higher than Upstart's 23.54% [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year revenue growth of 28.4% and 19.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth of 273.5% and 10% [20] Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) - Upstart utilizes machine learning to evaluate non-traditional data points for loan approvals, allowing for a broader range of borrowers [2] - The company has expanded into auto lending and is exploring small business loans and mortgages to diversify revenue streams [12] - Upstart's AI models detected rising risk, leading to tightened loan approvals and a decrease in conversion rates from 23.9% to 20.6% [14] - The company reported its best quarter for new bank and credit union partners, adding seven partners and reaching an all-time high in available monthly funding [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Upstart indicates revenue growth of 62.8% and 15.9% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth of 940% and 57.7% [24] Comparative Analysis - Pagaya's valuation is more favorable, trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) of 3.51X compared to Upstart's 5.10X [17] - Pagaya's flexible, capital-light model and strong funding network position it for long-term growth, while Upstart's model is more susceptible to credit cycles and capital market fluctuations [26][27]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings emphasizes the use of real-time data and AI for credit underwriting, leveraging over 98 million repayment events to enhance model accuracy [1] - The company has observed early signs of rising risk in Q3, leading to tighter approval processes and a decrease in conversion rates from 23.9% to 20.6% [2] - Upstart is refining its calibration tools to reduce conversion volatility by approximately 50%, aiming for a more stable approval pipeline [3] Company Developments - Upstart is diversifying its offerings beyond unsecured personal loans, with growth in auto, home, and small-dollar products supported by advancements in property valuations and AI for document verification [4] - Despite management's confidence in new calibrations, investor concerns about approval volatility persist, compounded by sensitivity to macroeconomic trends like interest rates [5] Peer Comparisons - LendingClub Corporation reported a 37% year-over-year increase in loan originations to $2.6 billion and a 32% rise in revenues to $266.2 million, showcasing strong profitability with a 12.4% return on equity [6] - SoFi Technologies, Inc. achieved record net revenues of $961.6 million in Q3, a 38% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 49% to $276.9 million and a 35% growth in its member base [7] Market Performance - Upstart's shares have declined by 22% over the past six months, underperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 [8] - The company's current valuation indicates it is overvalued, with a Price/Sales ratio of 2.95X, aligning with the industry average [10] Earnings Estimates - The full-year 2025 Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has been revised upward, while the 2026 estimate has seen downward revisions, though both suggest significant year-over-year increases [11]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings (UPST) is diversifying its business beyond personal loans, with new verticals like auto, home, and small-dollar loans becoming significant contributors to its platform [1][8] - In Q3, these new products accounted for nearly 12% of total originations and 22% of new borrowers, indicating substantial growth [1][8] Business Performance - Auto lending is the fastest-growing segment, with Upstart doubling its active lending rooftops and expanding into four additional states, achieving over 70% sequential growth in auto-retail transaction volume [2] - Year-over-year, transaction volumes for auto, home, and small-dollar loans each increased by approximately 300% [2][8] - Home lending is also advancing, with automation improvements raising automatic HELOC approvals from below 1% in June to about 20% in October [3] Funding and Investor Confidence - Upstart added seven new bank and credit union partners in Q3, achieving record monthly funding capacity and maintaining 100% retention across private-credit partners [4] - The September securitization was oversubscribed across all tranches, reflecting strong investor confidence as the company expands into various credit categories [4] Competitive Landscape - Other fintechs like PayPal and Intuit are also diversifying their offerings, with PayPal expanding into merchant services and consumer credit products, while Intuit is building a broader financial ecosystem [5][6] Valuation and Estimates - Upstart shares have declined 24% over the past six months, underperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 [7] - The current forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S) ratio for Upstart is 3.00X, slightly below the industry average of 3.06X, indicating that shares may be overvalued [9] - The full-year 2025 Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has been revised upward, while the estimate for 2026 has seen downward revisions, though both suggest significant year-over-year increases [10]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings has experienced significant improvements in its business operations, driven by a new AI model that enhances loan application conversion rates, leading to accelerated revenue growth and a return to profitability under GAAP standards [1][5] Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Upstart reported a transaction volume increase of 128% to 428,056, with originations rising 80% to $2.9 billion, resulting in a revenue increase of 71% to $277 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of $279.6 million [8] - Adjusted EBITDA rose from $1.4 million to $71.2 million, achieving a margin of 26%, while GAAP net income was reported at $31.8 million, with adjusted earnings per share increasing to $0.52 from a loss of $0.06 in the same quarter last year [9] Market Context - Despite the positive financial results, Upstart's stock has declined nearly 40% year-to-date and is down 58% from its peak this year, reflecting broader concerns in the fintech sector regarding a weakening credit environment and rising loan losses reported by regional banks [2][3][4] - The company is adapting its AI model to the changing credit landscape, indicating a proactive approach to managing perceived risks [6][10] Business Expansion - Upstart is expanding its offerings beyond consumer loans into larger loan markets, with auto loan originations reaching $128 million (up 5 times year-over-year) and home loan originations at $72 million (up 4 times year-over-year), although these categories still represent less than 10% of total origination volume [10]

Core Viewpoint - The potential introduction of 50-year mortgages by President Trump aims to ease home buying amid high home prices and mortgage rates, but it presents both benefits and drawbacks for consumers and the housing market [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Impact - Longer-term mortgages could lower monthly payments but increase the total cost of home ownership due to extended interest payments [2]. - If implemented, banks and loan companies, as well as real estate firms, are expected to benefit significantly from the 50-year mortgage plan [3]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Upstart - Upstart provides an AI-enabled loan platform that enhances creditworthiness assessments, allowing for more loan approvals without increasing risk [4]. - The company has seen improved performance as interest rates decline, and it is expanding its platform into home equity products [5][6]. - The mortgage market represents a substantial opportunity for Upstart, valued at $1.4 trillion, and the introduction of 50-year mortgages could significantly boost its HELOC product [7][8]. Group 3: Company Analysis - SoFi - SoFi targets younger adults, particularly first-time home buyers, who are facing challenges in the housing market [9]. - The company has experienced a surge in its lending business, with a record $9.9 billion in originations in Q3, marking a 57% increase year-over-year [11]. - Home loans, while currently the smallest segment, are growing rapidly, with a 93% increase in loan volume in Q3, positioning it to potentially become SoFi's largest lending category [12].

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings (UPST) has experienced significant stock volatility, dropping over 41% in the last three months despite reporting strong quarterly results [1][7] - The decline is attributed to broader market trends affecting high-growth fintech companies and concerns over Upstart's conservative lending models [1][11] Financial Performance - In Q3, Upstart reported total revenues of $277 million, a 71% increase year-over-year, and loan originations of approximately $2.9 billion, up 80% [3] - The company's AI-driven credit models adjusted approval rates in response to macroeconomic signals, leading to a decrease in conversion rates from 23.9% in Q2 to 20.6% in Q3 [4][3] Product Diversification - Upstart's newer products, including auto, home equity, and small-dollar loans, contributed nearly 12% of total originations, with auto retail loan activity growing over 70% sequentially [5][8] - Instant approvals for small-dollar loans improved significantly, with funding times reduced to under two minutes for qualified borrowers [8] Funding and Partnerships - The company achieved its best quarter for new bank and credit union partnerships, adding seven partners and reaching an all-time high in available monthly funding [9] - Upstart maintained 100% retention of all private credit partners and completed a successful securitization in September, indicating strong investor interest [9] Market Concerns - Despite operational improvements, there are concerns regarding model volatility and the larger-than-normal loan balance as the company transitions new products [11][12] - The stock remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rates, which adds volatility beyond the company's fundamentals [13] Valuation and Estimates - Recent estimate revisions show an upward trend for the full-year 2025 EPS but downward revisions for 2026, indicating mixed market sentiment [14] - Upstart shares are currently considered overvalued, trading at a forward Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.11, slightly below the industry average [16] Conclusion - Upstart's recent performance contrasts with its stock decline, highlighting improvements in revenues, profitability, and product expansion [17] - The company presents a promising long-term investment opportunity, but requires steadier macro signals and consistent model calibration for a stronger buy case [18]

Core Insights - Short interest data provides insights into investor sentiment and potential risks in the stock market, helping gauge market confidence in a company's future [1] - A stock is deemed heavily shorted when a significant percentage of its available shares are borrowed and sold by investors anticipating a price drop [2] - Short squeezes can occur when short-sellers rush to cover their positions, leading to rapid price increases, as seen in recent meme stock manias [3] Short Interest Overview - The most heavily shorted stocks as of November 13 include Lucid Group, Inc. (48.99%), Choice Hotels International, Inc. (46.71%), and Avis Budget Group, Inc. (46.13%) [5] - Stocks are ranked by short interest, which is the total number of shares sold short and not yet covered, expressed as a percentage of shares available for public trading [4] Market Dynamics - Highly shorted stocks represent a battleground where negative fundamentals meet speculative trading [7] - Monitoring short interest can help identify potential short squeeze candidates, although timing such trades is challenging due to high volatility [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued stocks that are mispriced by the market as a strategy for investment in November [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Stone Fox Capital is an RIA based in Oklahoma, led by Mark Holder, a CPA with 30 years of investing experience, including 15 years as a portfolio manager [2] - The investing group "Out Fox The Street" provides stock picks and in-depth research aimed at uncovering potential multibaggers while managing portfolio risk through diversification [2] Group 2: Features and Offerings - The group offers various model portfolios, stock picks with identifiable catalysts, daily updates, real-time alerts, and access to community chat and direct communication with Mark for inquiries [2]

Core Insights - Fintech platform Upstart (UPST) reported better-than-expected earnings for its third fiscal quarter on November 4, 2025, driven by a significant expansion in origination and transaction volumes [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced a fundamental improvement in its operational metrics, contributing to the positive earnings report [1]

Upstart Holdings, Inc. ( UPST ) appears to be giving bullish investors another opportunity to buy the name. The market has seen some shift to a “risk off” mentality, leading to a slide in the stock price. That underperformance has created a buying opportunity, with management signalingJulian Lin is a financial analyst. He finds undervalued companies with secular growth that appreciate over time. His approach is to look for companies with strong balance sheets and management teams in sectors with long growth ...