Company Performance - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $52.69, reflecting a +1.13% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.79% [1] - The company's shares have decreased by 8.48% over the last month, underperforming the Finance sector's loss of 2.01% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.27% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The earnings report for Upstart Holdings, Inc. is scheduled for November 4, 2025, with an anticipated EPS of $0.42, representing an 800% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $281.02 million, marking a 73.32% increase from the prior-year quarter [2] Fiscal Year Projections - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $1.66 per share and revenue at $963.44 million, indicating increases of +930% and +51.36% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates are important as they reflect near-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable business outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - Upstart Holdings, Inc. has a Forward P/E ratio of 31.34, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 11.95, indicating that the company is trading at a premium [6] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Upstart belongs, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 76, placing it in the top 31% of over 250 industries [6] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently rates Upstart Holdings, Inc. as 3 (Hold) [5] - The Zacks Rank has a proven track record, with 1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5]

Group 1 - The Toronto Blue Jays are making their first World Series appearance in 32 years, hosting game one against the Los Angeles Dodgers [1] - The options trading volume on Thursday was 57.83 million, slightly above the average daily volume, with the top 10 stocks accounting for 45% of the total volume and calls making up 60% of the activity [2] - There were 1,291 calls and puts traded, with six options exceeding a volume-to-open-interest ratio of 100, indicating unusual options activity [3] Group 2 - For the Oct. 31 expiration, the strategy involves selling the $43 put for Upstart Holdings (UPST), generating $15 in premium income, which translates to an annualized total return of 16.0% [5] - UPST stock has seen a decline of over 15% in 2025, with a notable 14% drop in the past month, but has increased by 17% in the last five days, highlighting its volatility [6] - Upstart is characterized as a stock for aggressive investors, as it aims for growth and consistent profitability despite its risks [6] Group 3 - Among the options expiring on Nov. 7, the Netflix (NFLX) put had the highest volume-to-open-interest ratio at 84.18, indicating significant trading activity [7]

Core Viewpoint - Halper Sadeh LLC is investigating potential breaches of fiduciary duties by certain officers and directors of Upstart, Inc. [1] Group 1 - The investigation focuses on whether the actions of Upstart's leadership have harmed shareholder interests [1] - Long-term shareholders of Upstart may have options for seeking corporate governance reforms and financial restitution [1] - The law firm is offering information on legal rights and potential benefits for affected shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings has experienced a 27% decline in stock price over the past 30 days, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors as the company prepares to release its third-quarter results on November 4, 2025 [1][3]. Company Overview - Upstart has developed an AI algorithm for credit assessments that analyzes over 2,500 data points, significantly more than traditional methods, leading to faster approvals and a better customer experience [5][6]. - The company primarily focuses on unsecured personal loans but is expanding into automotive and home equity line of credit (HELOC) segments [7]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, Upstart originated 372,599 loans, a 159% increase year-over-year, with a total dollar value of $2.8 billion, marking a three-year high [7]. - Revenue for the second quarter surged by 102% year-over-year to $257 million, prompting management to raise the full-year revenue forecast to $1.055 billion for 2025, which would be the first time it crosses the billion-dollar mark [10][11]. - The company reported a net income of $5.6 million during the second quarter, indicating it is on track for its first profitable year since 2021 [12]. Market Position and Valuation - Upstart's algorithm has shown resilience during challenging market conditions, and it recently secured a new regional bank client [13][14]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 5.6, which is a 50% discount to its historical average of 11.1 since its IPO in 2020 [14]. - To maintain its current P/S ratio, Upstart's stock would need to rise by 55% by the end of next year, indicating a compelling risk-reward scenario for investors [17].

Core Insights - Certain Wall Street analysts predict that shares of Upstart and Atlassian could see triple-digit returns in the next year despite their year-to-date declines of 15% and 30% respectively [1][2] Upstart Holdings - Upstart is an AI lending platform that enhances credit risk assessment by analyzing over 2,500 data points per applicant, improving accuracy compared to traditional FICO score systems [4] - The platform automates underwriting and optimizes customer acquisition, fraud detection, and default forecasting, allowing lending partners to approve more borrowers at lower interest rates [5] - Upstart's loans originated since Q2 2023 are projected to yield 11.3% annually, outperforming 10-year Treasury bonds by 7 percentage points [5] - In Q2, Upstart's total revenue surged 102% to $257 million, primarily driven by personal loans, which constitute 90% of total originations [6] - Non-GAAP net income improved to $0.36 per diluted share from a loss of $0.17 per diluted share year-over-year [6] - Wall Street anticipates Upstart's adjusted earnings to grow at 66% annually through 2027, making its current valuation of 60 times earnings appear relatively cheap [7] - Hal Goetsch from B. Riley Financial set a target price of $105 per share for Upstart, indicating a 102% upside from its current price of $52 [8] Atlassian - Atlassian specializes in work management and service management software, with its flagship product Jira being widely adopted across various departments [10] - The company was recognized by Gartner as a leader in work management software for both development and operations teams, providing a competitive advantage [11] - Atlassian has introduced AI agents to enhance productivity for both technical and non-technical teams, positioning itself well to benefit from AI advancements [12] - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, Atlassian reported a 22% revenue increase to $1.3 billion and a 48% rise in non-GAAP earnings to $0.98 per diluted share [13] - The adoption of AI products grew by 50% to 2.3 million monthly active users [13] - Atlassian's addressable market is estimated at $67 billion, expanding at 13% annually, with adjusted earnings expected to increase at 19% annually through fiscal 2027 [14] - Morgan Stanley set a target price of $320 per share for Atlassian, suggesting a 101% upside from its current price of $159 [8]

Core Viewpoint - AI software stocks experienced a decline on Wednesday, with notable drops in several key companies [1] Company Summaries - C3.ai (AI.US) saw a decline of over 4% [1] - Lemonade (LMND.US) also dropped by more than 4% [1] - Upstart (UPST.US) experienced a significant decrease of over 6.9% [1] - Palantir (PLTR.US) fell by more than 6% [1] - Duolingo (DUOL.US) declined by over 2.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart is experiencing a resurgence in growth after a period of volatility and declining revenue, with favorable macroeconomic conditions and improved financial performance indicating a potential investment opportunity [1][4][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Upstart's stock price has decreased by 23.5% year to date, but it trades at an attractive valuation of 19 times forward one-year earnings, suggesting a good entry point for investors [1]. - After two years of declining revenue, Upstart's revenue more than doubled year over year in the second quarter, and transaction volume increased by 159% [5]. - The company regained profitability on a GAAP basis a quarter earlier than expected, indicating a positive turnaround [5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's prime lending rate and market interest rates have started to decline, which is beneficial for borrowers and enhances the lending environment [4]. - Lower interest rates facilitate loan repayments and reduce default risks, allowing Upstart to better identify creditworthy candidates for lenders [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the federal funds rate two more times before the end of the year, which should support Upstart's growth trajectory [6]. - Management anticipates a 73% year-over-year increase in sales for the third quarter, with a projected net income of $9 million [6]. - Upstart has significant long-term potential in the credit evaluation market, valued at $1 trillion, making it an attractive investment for risk-tolerant investors [7].

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) is recognized as one of the 12 best fintech stocks to buy according to analysts, despite recent market pullbacks in consumer finance stocks due to concerns over subprime credit trends [1][2]. Company Overview - Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud-based AI lending platform in the US, partnering with banks and credit unions to provide various loan products, including personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit, and small-dollar relief loans [4]. Market Conditions - Citizens has reaffirmed its Market Perform rating for Upstart, citing isolated indications of rising delinquencies among selected subprime auto and personal loan lenders, which includes Upstart as one of the affected companies [2]. - The lending market is increasingly focusing on undocumented borrowers, contributing to a cautious outlook for consumer lenders like Upstart [2]. - Additional factors affecting the outlook include speculation over the resumption of student loan repayments and renewed focus on tariff impacts on prices [3].

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) experienced a decline of 2.69% in its recent trading session, closing at $46.50, which is significantly lower than the S&P 500's gain of 0.53% on the same day [1] - The company has seen a substantial loss of 29.78% over the past month, underperforming compared to the Finance sector's loss of 2.23% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.71% [1] Earnings Forecast - Upstart Holdings is set to release its earnings report on November 4, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.42, reflecting an 800% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected to reach $281.02 million, indicating a 73.32% increase compared to the year-ago quarter [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are estimated at $1.66 per share and revenue at $963.44 million, representing increases of 930% and 51.36% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest a favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability [3] Analyst Ratings and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Upstart Holdings as 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the last 30 days [5] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 28.79, which is a premium compared to its industry's Forward P/E of 12 [6] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Upstart belongs, ranks in the top 37% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [6] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings (UPST) is expanding its services beyond personal loans, leveraging its AI-powered platform to enter new markets such as auto loans, home equity, and small-dollar credit, with these segments accounting for nearly 20% of new borrowers in Q2 2025 [1][8] - The company has more than doubled its revenues year over year and achieved GAAP profitability earlier than expected [1] Auto Lending - Auto loan originations surged 87% sequentially to $114 million in Q2 2025, driven by the adoption of Upstart's Auto Retail software among car dealerships [2][8] - A focus on simplifying financing has led to increased dealer-driven loan requests and finalized agreements [2] Home Equity - The home equity segment has seen a nearly ninefold increase in originations year over year, reaching $68 million, facilitated by advancements in instant property verification technology [3][8] - This technology allows borrowers to complete ownership and income checks in under a minute, streamlining the traditionally slow HELOC process [3] Small-Dollar Loans - Small-dollar "relief" loans have increased by 40% sequentially as Upstart tests its AI models across a broader borrower base [4] - The latest underwriting model, Model 22, has improved accuracy and conversion rates, supporting the growth of these new verticals [4] Diversification Strategy - Upstart plans to move most Auto and Home loans off its balance sheet by late 2025, relying on third-party funding and partnerships with banks and credit unions to support this diversification [4] Industry Comparisons - Other fintech companies like PayPal and Intuit are also diversifying their revenue streams, with PayPal expanding into merchant solutions and consumer credit, while Intuit has developed a full financial ecosystem [5][6] Valuation and Performance - Upstart's shares have increased by 16.8% over the past six months, although this performance lags behind the broader industry and the S&P 500 [7] - The current forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S) ratio for Upstart is 3.77X, which is above the industry average of 3.52X, indicating that the shares may be overvalued [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimates for EPS for the full years 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward, but they still indicate significant year-over-year increases [10]