Core Insights - Upstart Holdings (UPST) is expected to report its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 10, with anticipated growth in revenues and earnings per share [1][7] - The company has a strong history of surpassing earnings estimates, having done so in the last four quarters [2] Financial Performance Expectations - Management has guided for Q4 revenues of approximately $288 million, reflecting sequential growth despite typical holiday seasonality [3] - Fee revenues are projected to be around $262 million, with net interest income expected at about $26 million [3] - For Q4, adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be approximately $63 million, with GAAP net income around $17 million and adjusted net income near $52 million [3] Profitability Metrics - Contribution margin is expected to moderate to about 53%, indicating a shift towards optimizing customer lifetime value rather than maximizing short-term margins [4] Funding and Growth Potential - Upstart has secured a $1.5 billion forward-flow agreement with Castlelake, enhancing its lending capacity and reducing balance sheet exposure [5] - The company is also seeing growth in newer verticals such as auto and home loans, which are becoming significant contributors to overall volume and revenues [5] Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 revenues is set at $288.47 million, representing a 31.74% increase year-over-year [6] - For the full year 2025, total revenues are projected to be about $1.035 billion, with fee revenues of roughly $946 million and net interest income of approximately $89 million [8] Earnings Projections - The consensus estimate for full-year EPS stands at $1.68, indicating a significant increase from a loss of 20 cents in the previous year [9]

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Core Insights - Upstart Holdings has faced a challenging four years, with stock performance stagnating since its peak in late 2021, despite a return to growth in 2023 [1][2] - The company utilizes an AI algorithm that assesses over 2,500 variables to evaluate creditworthiness, resulting in 43% more loan approvals without additional defaults compared to traditional methods [4][3] - Upstart's revenue increased nearly 80% year-over-year through the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a positive trajectory moving forward [5] Company Overview - Upstart is a unique lending platform that differentiates itself from traditional credit scoring agencies like Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion by employing advanced AI technology [3] - The platform has gained traction, with over 100 banks and credit unions as regular customers [5] Financial Performance - Despite a recent downturn in loan originations due to economic headwinds, analysts project a per-share profit of $2.38 for the current year, with the stock trading at less than 20 times this figure, suggesting it is undervalued [9][6] - The company's gross margin stands at an impressive 97.61%, reflecting strong operational efficiency [7] Market Sentiment - The stock has not reacted positively to recent warnings about economic challenges affecting loan origination, leading to market panic [6] - Analysts expect that as the year progresses, investors will recognize the company's actual profit potential, which has been understated in recent earnings reports [9]

Core Insights - Upstart is leveraging artificial intelligence to innovate in the credit space, analyzing 2,500 variables to assess borrower risk and improve loan approval rates [1][6] - The stock has shown significant volatility, trading 88% below its peak but has increased 144% over the past three years, despite a 35% decline in the last year [2][6] - Upstart's revenue grew by 71% year-over-year in Q3 2025, driven by a 128% increase in transaction volume, with personal loans being the primary product [3][4] Financial Performance - Management forecasts a net income of $50 million for the full year, aided by controlled engineering and product development costs [4] - The current market capitalization of Upstart is $4.5 billion, with a gross margin of 97.61% [6] Market Potential - Upstart operates in a massive total addressable market worth trillions, focusing on various lending verticals and collaborating with banks and credit unions [6] - The company is experiencing early success in auto loans and HELOCs, indicating potential for further growth [3] Long-term Outlook - There is speculation that if Upstart maintains a 20% annualized growth rate, an initial investment of $10,000 could grow to $1 million in 25 years, outperforming the S&P 500's historical average [2][7] - However, long-term success is uncertain due to the cyclical nature of the business and competition from larger financial institutions investing heavily in AI [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the identification of investment opportunities in undervalued companies through thorough research and analysis of financial statements and market trends [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The focus is on mid and small-cap companies that are currently undervalued, suggesting potential for growth and investment [1] Group 2: Research and Analysis - The analysis includes a comprehensive review of financial statements, market trends, and upcoming events that could impact specific companies or industries [1]

Core Insights - Kim Long Motor, a Vietnamese auto manufacturer, is partnering with China's BYD to develop a $130 million plant for producing batteries for commercial electric vehicles in central Vietnam [1] Company Developments - The collaboration aims to enhance the production capabilities of electric vehicle batteries in Vietnam, indicating a strategic move towards sustainable transportation solutions [1] - The investment of $130 million highlights the growing interest and commitment to the electric vehicle market in the region [1] Industry Trends - The partnership reflects a broader trend in the automotive industry towards electrification and the increasing demand for commercial electric vehicles [1] - This development is part of a larger shift in Vietnam's automotive sector, which is increasingly focusing on electric mobility and sustainable energy solutions [1]

Company Performance - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $45.29, reflecting a -2.14% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.03% [1] - Over the past month, shares have depreciated by 4.02%, compared to the Finance sector's loss of 0.08% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.6% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The earnings report for Upstart Holdings, Inc. is scheduled for February 10, 2026, with expected earnings of $0.47 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 80.77% [2] - Revenue is projected at $288.47 million, reflecting a 31.74% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Projections - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $1.68 per share, representing a +940% change from the prior year, while revenue is expected to remain at $1.04 billion [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent modifications to analyst estimates indicate the dynamic nature of near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting confidence in business performance [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Upstart Holdings, Inc. at 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Upstart Holdings, Inc. has a Forward P/E ratio of 17.5, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 11.75 [7] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 96, placing it in the top 40% of over 250 industries [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings is positioned as a potential multi-bagger stock due to its innovative AI-based loan origination model and significant growth metrics, making it an attractive investment opportunity for those seeking high returns [1][2]. Company Overview - Upstart Holdings operates as an AI-based loan originator, utilizing predictive algorithms that outperform traditional FICO scores in screening borrowers, resulting in higher approval rates and lower default rates [3][4]. Business Performance - In Q3, Upstart reported a 128% increase in transaction volume, with loans originated rising to 428,056. The conversion rate of loan applications approved and funded increased from 16.3% to 20.6%, leading to a revenue increase of 71% to $277 million, including a 54% growth in fee revenue to $259 million [5]. - The company achieved a GAAP profit of $31.8 million, or $0.23 per share, marking a turnaround from previous unprofitability, with expectations for continued margin improvement despite potential revenue growth moderation [6]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Upstart has a market capitalization of approximately $4.5 billion, suggesting a potential for 10x growth while remaining below a $50 billion valuation, which is feasible given the performance of other fintech stocks [7]. - The company has expanded from unsecured consumer loans into larger credit markets, including auto and home loans, experiencing exponential growth in these areas [8]. Challenges and Management Strategy - Despite a 29% decline last year due to credit risk concerns, management reported no significant changes in delinquencies as of last November, although broader economic factors have raised investor concerns [9]. - The stock is considered reasonably priced with a price-to-earnings ratio around 30 based on consensus adjusted earnings per share for 2025, with technology providing a competitive edge and opportunities for expansion into new financial products [10]. - Management is focused on diversifying lending products and expanding partnerships, demonstrating resilience and adaptability post-pandemic, which could lead to significant long-term growth [11].