U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) will release earnings for the fourth quarter before the opening bell on Tuesday, Jan. 20.Analysts expect the Minneapolis, Minnesota-based company to report fourth-quarter earnings of $1.19 per share. That's up from $1.07 per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for U.S. Bancorp’s quarterly revenue is $7.32 billion (it reported $6.98 billion last year), according to Benzinga Pro.On Jan. 13, U.S. Bancorp agreed to acquire BTIG, LLC.Shares of U.S. Bancorp gained 0.8% to ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Bancorp (USB) is expected to report year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings for Q4 2025, with results scheduled for January 20, 2026 [1][9] Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net interest income (NII) is $4.29 billion, reflecting a 1.8% increase from the previous quarter [4] - The consensus estimate for total revenues is pegged at $7.33 billion, indicating a rise of 4.9% from the year-ago figure [14] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.19, representing an 11.2% increase from the prior year [14] Factors Influencing Performance - NII growth is expected to be supported by lower interest rates, stabilizing funding costs, and resilient loan demand [3][9] - Lending activity remained strong, particularly in commercial and industrial loans, despite uncertainties in tariff policies [4] - Non-interest income is projected to decline sequentially, with total non-interest income estimated at $3.04 billion, a decrease of 1.3% [10] Market Conditions - Elevated market volatility and client activity during the fourth quarter are anticipated to have positively impacted capital markets revenue [6] - Mortgage banking revenues are expected to decline to $166.9 million, a 7.3% decrease from the prior quarter, due to subdued refinancing activity [8][7] Expense Management - Total non-interest expenses are projected to rise by approximately 1%–1.5% compared to the previous quarter, driven by higher compensation and technology investments [10][11] Asset Quality - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans is $1.63 billion, indicating a 1.4% increase from the prior quarter [12] - The company is likely to have set aside funds for potential bad loans in light of expected rate cuts and improving economic conditions [11] Earnings Surprise History - U.S. Bancorp has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of 4.7% over the last four quarters [2]

Economic Policy and Market Impact - President Trump's upcoming speech is expected to outline economic priorities and policy initiatives, with a focus on tax policy changes, infrastructure spending, regulatory approaches, and trade policy, particularly regarding China [1][2] - The speech's timing amid earnings season and critical economic data releases creates a complex backdrop for market reactions, as political rhetoric and corporate results will compete for investor attention [1][2] Economic Data Releases - Thursday will see a significant convergence of economic data, including the Q3 GDP revision and the November Core PCE Price Index, both released at 8:30am, which could lead to market volatility as investors assess growth and inflation data simultaneously [4] - The GDP revision will provide insights into consumer spending, business investment, and net exports, while the Core PCE Price Index will be crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] Company Earnings Insights - Netflix's earnings report will be critical for understanding the streaming industry's economics, including subscriber growth sustainability and content investment returns, especially in light of competition from platforms like Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video [5] - Intel's earnings will be a key indicator of its manufacturing transformation and competitive positioning in the semiconductor market, while GE Aerospace's results will provide insights into commercial aviation demand and defense spending trends [7] - Johnson & Johnson's earnings will offer perspectives on pharmaceutical demand and healthcare spending trends, while Procter & Gamble's results will assess consumer resilience in personal care and household products [8]

Core Insights - United Wholesale Mortgage retained the top position in mortgage origination volume for 2024, continuing its lead over Rocket Mortgage from the previous year [1] - The top 10 mortgage lenders accounted for over 21% of all U.S. home loans originated and nearly 26% of the total dollar volume of loans for the year [2] Top 10 Mortgage Lenders - The top 10 lenders by loan origination volume in 2024 are as follows: 1. United Wholesale Mortgage: 366,078 loans, $139.7 billion [5] 2. Rocket Mortgage: 361,071 loans, $97.6 billion [9] 3. CrossCountry Mortgage: 101,894 loans, $39.4 billion [10] 4. Bank of America: 83,143 loans, $29.5 billion [11] 5. Navy Federal Credit Union: 82,019 loans, $17.7 billion [14] 6. LoanDepot: Data not provided 7. Chase: Data not provided 8. Guild Mortgage: Data not provided 9. Fairway Independent Mortgage: Data not provided 10. U.S. Bank: Data not provided [3] Customer Satisfaction Ratings - Bank of America received a high customer satisfaction rating for mortgage servicing and an above-average rating for mortgage origination according to J.D. Power in 2025 [9] - Navy Federal Credit Union achieved high customer satisfaction ratings for both mortgage origination and servicing, although it is not eligible for official rankings [14]

Core Viewpoint - Bank CEOs are expressing significant concern regarding President Trump's proposal for a 10% cap on credit-card interest rates, highlighting potential negative impacts on credit access and consumer spending [9]. Industry Reactions - Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, stated that implementing a cap would constrict credit and lead to unintended consequences, emphasizing the importance of affordability [2][3]. - Citi's CEO Jane Fraser opposed the cap, warning that it would severely impact access to credit for consumers and businesses, potentially forcing them to seek predatory alternatives [3]. - Wells Fargo's CEO Charlie Scharf acknowledged the importance of affordability but suggested that the response to the issue should be carefully considered [4]. Financial Implications - Analysts predict that a cap on credit-card interest rates could significantly reduce earnings for banks with large card portfolios, with estimates suggesting it could wipe out card earnings for a year [7][10]. - The average credit-card interest rate was reported at 21.39% in Q3 2025, indicating that a 10% cap would drastically alter the current economic landscape for credit cards [6][11]. - JPMorganChase's CFO Jeremy Barnum noted that the cap would negatively affect both consumers and the broader economy, leading to a loss of credit access for those who need it most [15][16]. Market Reactions - Shares of Synchrony Financial and Bread Financial Holdings, which are heavily reliant on interest income, have seen declines of approximately 11% and 14% respectively since the proposal [12]. - Larger banks with diversified business models may experience smaller impacts, but they still face challenges due to the proposed one-year time limit on the cap [12][13]. Legislative Outlook - Analysts believe there is a "very low chance" that the 10% cap will pass Congress, as it could undermine the Treasury's goal of encouraging banks to lend more [8][14]. - The legal feasibility of implementing and enforcing such a cap is also questioned, with some analysts suggesting it may be difficult to achieve [14].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that U.S. Bancorp (USB) will report quarterly earnings of $1.19 per share, reflecting an 11.2% year-over-year increase, with revenues expected to reach $7.33 billion, a 5% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 0.5%, indicating a collective reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Analysts expect the 'Efficiency Ratio' to be 57.8%, down from 61.5% in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Average Balances - Total earning assets' are projected to reach $620.79 billion, compared to $614.27 billion in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Book value per common share' is expected to be $37.16, up from $33.19 a year ago [6]. - 'Total nonperforming loans' are projected at $1.63 billion, down from $1.79 billion last year, while 'Total nonperforming assets' are expected to be $1.68 billion, down from $1.83 billion [6]. - The 'Leverage ratio' is forecasted to reach 8.8%, compared to 8.3% a year ago, and the 'Tier 1 Capital Ratio' is expected to be 12.6%, up from 12.2% [7]. - 'Total Noninterest Income' is projected at $3.04 billion, compared to $2.83 billion last year [7]. - 'Net interest income (taxable-equivalent basis)' is expected to be $4.29 billion, up from $4.18 billion a year ago [8]. - 'Mortgage banking revenue' is projected at $166.91 million, compared to $116.00 million last year [8]. - 'Other- noninterest income' is expected to be $213.80 million, up from $207.00 million in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'Capital markets revenue' is projected at $414.59 million, compared to $364.00 million last year [9]. Stock Performance - U.S. Bancorp shares have changed by +1.1% in the past month, compared to a +2.1% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite, with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the overall market [10].

Group 1 - The analysis of U.S. Bancorp (USB) indicates a significant turnaround, with the stock previously trading in the low forty-dollar range [1] - The article reflects a personal interest in adding stocks to the portfolio, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The author emphasizes a commitment to providing insights for both beginners and advanced readers, aiming for clarity and depth in analysis [1]

Group 1 - Proposed credit card interest rate cap policy could severely impact the $70 billion credit card debt securitization market, but investors believe the likelihood of implementation is low, resulting in a muted market reaction [1] - Analysts from JPMorgan indicated that a 10% interest rate cap would significantly reduce the excess spread, a key profitability metric, to levels comparable to those during the 2008 financial crisis [1] - The credit card asset-backed securities market is highly sensitive to the interest rate cap policy, which could block high-interest borrowers from accessing credit cards, leading to a significant contraction in the market [2][3] Group 2 - If the interest rate cap is enforced, banks are expected to tighten credit issuance, leading to a decline in overall loan volumes and a reduction in the issuance of credit card asset-backed securities [3] - Current data shows that credit card ABS has dropped from a peak of 36% of total ABS issuance in 2009 to just 9% [2] - The stock market reacted negatively, with significant declines in shares of banks and credit card issuers, particularly those with a higher proportion of low-quality borrowers [4] Group 3 - Analysts predict that if the interest rate cap is made permanent, it could lead to systemic adjustments in credit card companies' strategies, including reduced credit issuance to non-prime consumers and increased fees [4][5] - Major banks like Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Bank of America could see a decline in earnings per share ranging from 1% to 10% due to the proposed policy [5] - The potential impact on credit card companies' book values could be severe, with estimates suggesting declines of 20% to 40% for certain firms under the temporary cap [5][6]

Stephen Philipson, U.S. Bancorp Vice Chair and Head of Wealth, Corporate, Commercial, and Institutional Banking, discusses the firm's deal to buy BTIG. He tells Romaine Bostick on "The Close" that the acquisition is a natural step in U.S. Bancorp's evolution. ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are experiencing a mixed session with major indexes showing slight pullbacks as investors assess inflation data and fourth-quarter earnings reports [1][2] - The S&P 500 Index is down less than 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite Index has slipped 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 0.6% [2] Economic Indicators - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a 2.7% year-over-year rise in headline inflation, matching expectations, while core inflation is at 2.6%, slightly below the projected 2.8% [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to below 4.18% from 4.20% following the CPI data release, indicating potential room for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4] Earnings Reports - JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported adjusted profits exceeding expectations but with slightly lower revenue, leading to a 2.5% decline in shares [7] - Delta Air Lines (DAL) shares fell nearly 6% pre-bell and 1.5% in recent trading after forecasting lower-than-expected profit growth for fiscal 2026, despite reporting operating revenue of $16.00 billion [7] - L3Harris Technologies (LHX) shares surged 3% to an all-time high following plans to spin off its Missile Solutions business, supported by a $1 billion government investment [8] Sector Movements - A sector rotation trend has been observed since late December 2025, with the Dow Jones and small-cap Russell 2000 outperforming AI-heavy mega-cap technology stocks [3] Corporate Developments - Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc. (SNCY) shares jumped 10.6% after announcing an acquisition agreement with Allegiant Travel (ALGT) valued at $18.89 per share [10] - Posco Holdings Inc. (PKX) shares rose 12% after raising $700 million in global bond markets and providing a positive earnings outlook for 2026 [11] Political Impact - President Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has negatively impacted financial stocks, with Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) down 5%, and American Express Company (AXP) down 4.3% [9]