CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 2 月 27 日 药明生物 2269 HK 中国医疗保健行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 抛售：资金流动驱动，非基本面因素 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 2 月 26 日发布的题为《Sell-off: Flow-led, not fundamentals》 的 报 告 ， 药 明 生 物 （ WuXi Biologics） 及 其 子 公 司 药 明 合 联 （ WuXi XDC） 今 日 分 别 下 跌 约 7%/8%，而香港上市 CRO/CDMO 板块整体下跌 2-9%。中信里昂认为这些波动并非基本面驱动，更多可能是仓位 调整和资金流动所致。 三月指引季或成下一个催化因素 催化因素 (1) 双/多特异性药物引领的项目动能，有望推动2026 年收入重新加速增长；(2) 2025 年新增项目数超预期（净增128 个项目，超越市场预期），为 2026 年预期增速快于 2025 年奠定基础；(3) 地缘政治估值折价因素消退，2026 年该 ...

港交所：2月16日，贝莱德持有的药明生物H股多头头寸从5.22%降至4.51%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that WuXi Biologics (02269) has exceeded market consensus and Morgan Stanley's expectations for its 2025 performance, raising the target price from HKD 37 to HKD 51 and extending the target price deadline to December 2026 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - The company expects full-year revenue to reach RMB 21.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, aligning closely with market consensus and Morgan Stanley's forecast. Net profit is projected to be RMB 4.9 billion, exceeding market consensus and Morgan Stanley's estimates by approximately 11% and 17% respectively [1] - After adjusting for one-time costs, the non-IFRS net profit is expected to rise by 22% to RMB 6.59 billion, reinforcing Morgan Stanley's confidence in WuXi Biologics' growth prospects for this year and beyond [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has raised its sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 5%, and for 2028 and beyond by 6% to 9%, due to improved expectations for new order acquisition momentum. The firm now predicts sales growth of 17.3% and 18.0% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [2] - Due to better-than-expected gross margin expansion, Morgan Stanley has also increased its gross margin assumptions by 2 to 3 percentage points, forecasting gross margins of 46.0%, 46.2%, and 46.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - These updates translate into a 13% to 23% upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profit for shareholders expected to grow by 17.4% and 20.9% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Morgan Stanley's report indicates that WuXi Biologics (02269) has exceeded market consensus and Morgan Stanley's expectations for its 2025 performance, leading to an increase in target price from HKD 37 to HKD 51 and maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - Company expects full-year revenue of RMB 21.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, aligning with market consensus and Morgan Stanley's forecast [1] - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 4.9 billion, exceeding market consensus and Morgan Stanley's estimates by approximately 11% and 17% respectively [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has raised its sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 5%, and for 2028 and beyond by 6% to 9%, due to improved expectations for new order acquisition momentum [2] - The firm now predicts sales growth of 17.3% and 18.0% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [2] - Due to better-than-expected gross margin expansion, Morgan Stanley has adjusted its gross margin assumptions upward by 2 to 3 percentage points, forecasting gross margins of 46.0%, 46.2%, and 46.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a target price of HKD 48.5 and rates the company as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - WuXi Biologics (02269) has issued an earnings upgrade for the second half of 2025, with revenue expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while net profit is projected to increase by 38% to RMB 2.6 billion [1] - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to rise by 31% to RMB 3.7 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - The gross profit margin is expected to increase by 6.2 percentage points to 48.8%, which is a key positive surprise in this earnings upgrade and the main driver behind the better-than-expected profit performance [1] - WuXi Biologics remains a preferred stock within the Chinese Contract Research Organization (CRO) and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that WuXi Biologics has issued a positive earnings forecast, expecting a 16.7% year-on-year revenue growth to reach 21.8 billion yuan by 2025, aligning with the bank's expectations [1] Revenue and Growth - The revenue growth is attributed to a record number of new projects and an expansion of service offerings, particularly in the BsAb and ADC platforms [1] - The revenue forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been slightly increased by 1% [1] Profitability - Gross margin is expected to expand by 5 percentage points year-on-year to 46%, exceeding the bank's expectations due to improved capacity utilization and efficiency gains from the Lean Operations Management System (WBS) [1] - Net profit and attributable net profit are projected to be 5.7 billion and 4.9 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 45.3% and 46.3% [1] - Net profit forecast has been raised by 7% to 12% [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price has been adjusted from 41.8 HKD to 47 HKD, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that WuXi Biologics has issued a positive earnings forecast, expecting a 16.7% year-on-year revenue growth to reach 21.8 billion yuan by 2025, aligning with the bank's expectations [1] Revenue and Growth - The revenue growth is attributed to a record number of new projects and an expansion of service offerings, particularly in the BsAb and ADC platforms [1] - The revenue forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been slightly increased by 1% [1] Profitability - Gross margin is expected to expand by 5 percentage points year-on-year to 46%, surpassing the bank's expectations due to improved capacity utilization and efficiency gains from the Lean Operations Management System (WBS) [1] - Net profit and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be 5.7 billion yuan and 4.9 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 45.3% and 46.3% [1] - Net profit forecast has been raised by 7% [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price has been adjusted from 41.8 HKD to 47 HKD, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's report indicates that WuXi Biologics has announced a profit forecast, expecting a 16.7% year-on-year revenue growth to 21.8 billion yuan in 2025, slightly above the market expectation of 21.5 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The gross margin is expected to improve by 5 percentage points year-on-year to 46%, also exceeding the market expectation of 43% [1] - Net profit and profit attributable to shareholders are projected to grow by 45.3% and 46.3% year-on-year, reaching 5.7 billion yuan and 4.9 billion yuan, respectively, surpassing market expectations of 4.8 billion yuan and 4.4 billion yuan [1] - For the second half of 2025, revenue is estimated to grow by 17.2% year-on-year to 11.8 billion yuan, with profit growth of 38%, both exceeding market expectations [1] Management Insights - Management attributes the growth to optimistic performance in research service revenue and an increase in projects entering later stages due to enhanced service capabilities [1] Target Price Adjustment - Nomura has raised its target price from 37.36 HKD to 50.54 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that WuXi Biologics (02269) stock price will rise in the next 45 days, with a probability between 70% to 80% [1] Financial Projections - The earnings forecast for WuXi Biologics for 2026 to 2030 has been raised by 4% to 10% due to accelerated revenue growth and margin expansion [1] - Target price has been increased from HKD 45 to HKD 50, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] Company Performance Indicators - The company previously issued a positive earnings forecast, with management indicating accelerated growth for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The number of integration projects for 2025 is expected to increase by 16%, alongside strong momentum in research services, indicating robust performance for 2026 [1] - The momentum in research services is anticipated to generate revenue related to intellectual property (IP), further enhancing profitability [1] Strategic Partnerships and Growth - Recently, the company has entered into licensing agreements with Vertex and Zai Lab (09688) [1] - Strong growth is expected in the manufacturing sector, with the company mentioning "multiple blockbuster drugs" on the horizon [1] - The company completed 28 Process Performance Qualifications (PPQ) in 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase, viewed as a leading indicator for future commercialization contracts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates that WuXi Biologics' stock price will rise in the next 45 days, with a probability estimated between 70% to 80% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - The company previously issued an earnings upgrade, with management indicating accelerated growth for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The number of integration projects for 2025 is expected to increase by 16%, reflecting strong momentum in research services [1] - The strong momentum in research services is expected to generate revenue related to intellectual property (IP), further enhancing profitability [1] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Growth Indicators - Recently, the company has entered into licensing agreements with Vertex and Zai Lab [1] - WuXi Biologics anticipates strong growth in its manufacturing segment, with several blockbuster drugs expected [1] - The company completed 28 process performance qualifications (PPQ) in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 75%, which is viewed as a leading indicator for future commercialization contracts [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Target Price Adjustment - Based on accelerated revenue growth and margin expansion, Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2030 by 4% to 10% [1] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 45 to HKD 50, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]