Group 1 - Exxon Mobil and Chevron executives are expected to face inquiries regarding their investment opportunities in Venezuela during analyst calls [1] - The focus on Venezuela may overshadow discussions about their actual quarterly earnings [1]

As Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) prepares to report fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 30, the energy giant faces a complex landscape defined by softening crude prices and a sudden geopolitical shift.While lower upstream realizations are expected to weigh on results, analysts forecast that robust refining and record production volumes in Guyana and the Permian Basin will provide a critical earnings buffer.Refining Resilience Meets Market HeadwindsWall Street consensus estimates project fourth-quarter Earnings P ...

Core Insights - U.S. natural gas futures have surged above $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the first time since 2022, driven by an Arctic blast that increased heating demand and constrained supply [1][4][6] - The price increase is expected to enhance profitability for exploration and production companies in the natural gas sector, benefiting diversified energy ETFs that hold these companies [2][6] Factors Behind the Price Surge - The surge in natural gas prices is attributed to intense weather-driven demand due to severe winter conditions, with nearly half of U.S. states declaring emergencies [4] - U.S. natural gas production fell by over 11 billion cubic feet per day due to operational disruptions caused by the storm, tightening supply further [5][6] - Despite robust gas storage levels prior to the storm, the immediate demand for heating created a short-term market squeeze [5] Impact on Companies - Major natural gas producers such as EQT Corporation, Expand Energy, and Coterra Energy are positioned to benefit from higher realized prices [6] - Larger diversified energy companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, as well as LNG transporters like Kinder Morgan, are also expected to gain from the price rally [7] Advantages of Energy ETFs - Investing in energy ETFs mitigates risks associated with individual stocks, such as operational outages or regulatory hurdles, while providing diversified exposure across the sector [8][9] - Energy ETFs allow investors to capitalize on rising commodity prices and sector-wide profitability without relying on the performance of a single company [9][10] Recommended Energy ETFs - **State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)**: AUM of $31.16 billion, exposure to 22 companies, top holdings include ExxonMobil (24.14%) and Chevron (17.58%), up 10.7% over the past year [11][12] - **Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE)**: Net assets of $7 billion, exposure to 107 companies, top holdings include ExxonMobil (22.87%) and Chevron (15.02%), up 19.9% over the past year [13][14] - **Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY)**: Net assets of $1.28 billion, exposure to 101 companies, top holdings include ExxonMobil (22.98%) and Chevron (15.24%), up 10.6% over the past year [15] - **Global X U.S. Natural Gas ETF (LNGX)**: Net assets of $10.48 million, exposure to 34 companies, top holdings include Coterra Energy (8.21%) and Expand Energy (7.25%), up 10.8% over the past year [16][17]

Core Insights - BYD Company Limited and Exxon Mobil Corporation's entity in China have signed a strategic memorandum of understanding to enhance cooperation in new-energy hybrid technology [1][9] Group 1: Partnership Details - The MoU signifies a continuation of the long-term partnership between BYD and ExxonMobil, focusing on joint research and development, technical collaboration, and transforming research outcomes into practical applications [2] - The partnership will also work on industry standards and brand-level cooperation related to hybrid technologies, indicating a broader strategic alignment beyond individual products [2] Group 2: Previous Collaborations - BYD and ExxonMobil previously developed a customized engine oil for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, tailored to the unique operating conditions of these vehicles [3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Innovation - Supply chain support is a critical aspect of the partnership, with ExxonMobil leveraging its global production network and logistics capabilities to deliver compliant lubricant products to BYD's overseas production facilities [4] - The collaboration will also focus on new material innovations to enhance vehicle sustainability, reflecting a shared goal of improving hybrid technology and supporting energy efficiency [5] Group 4: Overall Objectives - The overarching aim of the partnership is to advance plug-in hybrid electric vehicle technology, making hybrid vehicles more efficient, reliable, and sustainable while promoting cleaner transportation globally [6]

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 30, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated to rise by 0.6% year-over-year, while revenues are projected to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous year [1][2][6]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $1.68 per share, reflecting a slight improvement from the previous year [2]. - The estimated revenue for the fourth quarter is $83.2 billion, indicating a decrease from the year-ago figures [2]. - XOM has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.7% [2]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for XOM, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. Factors Impacting Earnings - XOM anticipates a sequential decline in upstream earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion due to lower liquid prices [5]. - The average WTI spot prices for the last quarter were significantly lower than the previous quarter, which may have negatively impacted upstream operations [7]. - Natural gas prices could either increase upstream earnings by $100 million or decrease them by $300 million [8]. Price Performance and Valuation - XOM's stock has increased by 25.9% over the past year, outperforming BP and Chevron [9]. - The current EV/EBITDA ratio for XOM is 8.84, which is above the industry average of 5.43, indicating a premium valuation [11]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the challenges posed by lower crude prices, XOM's long-term outlook remains positive due to its strong presence in the Permian Basin and offshore Guyana, where it has made significant discoveries [14][15]. - The company employs advanced technologies to enhance well recoveries, which could mitigate some impacts of low crude prices [14]. Status of Competitors - Chevron (CVX) and BP are also set to report their fourth-quarter earnings soon, with CVX having a negative Earnings ESP and BP showing a positive outlook [16][17].

Core Insights - The fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season is underway, with a focus on the oil and energy sector facing macroeconomic uncertainty and commodity price volatility [1] - A few energy companies are positioned to exceed earnings expectations, potentially leading to stock price boosts and investment opportunities [1] Oil and Gas Price Movements - West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices averaged $59.64 per barrel in Q4 2025, down from $70.69 the previous year, due to global oversupply and sluggish demand growth [3] - OPEC+ nations began unwinding production cuts in September, increasing output alongside steady non-OPEC supply, resulting in inventory builds of up to 2 million barrels per day [3] - Natural gas prices at Henry Hub averaged $3.75 per million British thermal units, up from $2.44 the previous year, driven by colder winter weather, high LNG exports, and increased consumption from data centers [5] Identifying Potential Market Beaters - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have a 70% chance of beating earnings expectations [7] - Earnings ESP is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate [7] Company Highlights - **Imperial Oil Limited (IMO)**: Expected to report earnings of $1.40 per share, a 17.16% decrease from the prior year, but has a 1.79% Earnings ESP and a strong track record of exceeding estimates [10] - **ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM)**: Anticipated to post earnings of $1.64 per share, down 1.8% year over year, with a 2.29% Earnings ESP and a history of 5.71% average earnings surprises [12] - **Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)**: Set to report earnings of 12 cents per share, flat year over year, with a notable 19.15% Earnings ESP and an average surprise of 17.5% [13] - **Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)**: Expected to report earnings of 51 cents per share, a 15% drop from the prior year, but with a 14.85% Earnings ESP and a history of positive earnings surprises [14]

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector, typically known for volatility, can still provide reliable dividends, as demonstrated by ExxonMobil and Chevron, which have successfully navigated the energy commodity cycle while rewarding investors with consistent dividend growth [1]. Company Overview - ExxonMobil and Chevron are integrated energy companies operating across upstream (energy production), midstream (pipelines), and downstream (chemicals and refining) segments, which helps mitigate the impact of oil and natural gas price fluctuations [3]. Dividend Performance - ExxonMobil has increased its dividend annually for over 40 years, while Chevron has maintained its dividend growth for more than 30 years, showcasing a level of consistency unmatched by peers like Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies, which have faced dividend cuts [4]. Dividend Yields - ExxonMobil offers a dividend yield of 3%, and Chevron provides a higher yield of 4.1%, significantly above the S&P 500 index's yield of 1.1%, making them attractive options for dividend investors [5]. Financial Strength - Both companies have strong balance sheets, with ExxonMobil's debt-to-equity ratio at 0.16 and Chevron's at 0.22, the lowest among their peers, allowing them to manage debt effectively during downturns and support dividends [6]. Investment Recommendation - Given their financial stability and dividend performance, ExxonMobil and Chevron are considered strong investment choices, with Chevron currently offering a better income opportunity for conservative investors [7].

Group 1 - The article highlights a paradox in the oil and natural gas market, where inventories are rising despite an abundance of supply, indicating potential economic constraints [1] - The focus is on long-term investment strategies in U.S. and European equities, emphasizing undervalued growth stocks and high-quality dividend growers as key areas of interest [1] - Sustained profitability, characterized by strong margins, stable and expanding free cash flow, and high returns on invested capital, is identified as a more reliable driver of returns than valuation alone [1] Group 2 - The author manages a portfolio publicly on eToro, qualifying as a Popular Investor, which allows others to copy real-time investment decisions [1] - The interdisciplinary background of the author, including Economics, Classical Philology, Philosophy, and Theology, enhances both quantitative analysis and market narrative interpretation [1] - The investment philosophy aims to balance asset management to ensure freedom in work and life, rather than seeking to avoid work altogether [1]

Company News - ASML's ADRs rose 5% after reporting orders significantly exceeding investor expectations, driven by increased demand for AI computing workloads [3][5][17] - Seagate's stock increased by 8% following a strong second-quarter earnings report that surpassed expectations, along with a positive outlook [3] - Texas Instruments gained 7% after providing a favorable outlook, indicating improved demand in industrial and data center markets [3] - AT&T's shares rose 3% after reporting fourth-quarter profit and revenue that exceeded analysts' estimates, attributed to strong broadband subscriber growth [3] - C3.ai's stock surged 15% amid reports of merger talks with Automation Anywhere [3] - F5 Inc. jumped 8% after raising its revenue forecast for the fiscal year [3] - New Oriental Education's ADRs rose 6% after beating second-quarter estimates and increasing its annual net revenue forecast [3] - Corning's shares fell 3% after reporting fourth-quarter results and providing a disappointing outlook [3] - Elevance Health dropped 6% after giving an adjusted profit forecast for 2026 that fell short of Wall Street expectations [3] - Qorvo's stock fell 10% after issuing a weaker-than-expected outlook [3] Industry Trends - The tech sector is experiencing a rally, driven by strong earnings from semiconductor and memory companies, which is boosting the AI trade [1][4][6] - The Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly higher, with Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon showing gains, while Meta and Apple experienced slight declines [3] - The semiconductor, memory, and storage sectors are seeing significant gains due to positive earnings reports, particularly from ASML, Seagate, and Texas Instruments [3][4] - Asian equities are also benefiting from the tech rally, with notable gains in TSMC and SK Hynix [5][13] - The demand for AI memory is driving earnings growth for companies like SK Hynix, indicating a strong market for AI-related technologies [5][14]

With stocks in bullish mode it’s a good time to run Barchart’s Bull Call Spread Screener. A bull call spread is an options strategy that a trader uses when they believe the price of an underlying stock will move higher in the short term. More News from Barchart To execute the strategy, a trader would buy a call option and sell a further out-of-the-money call option with the following conditions: Both call options must use the same underlying stock Both call options must have the same expiration Bo ...