KKR is providing Chandra Asri with $750 million for its acquisition of Exxon Mobil’s Esso-branded retail fuel stations in Singapore https://t.co/ctx1oEcSRB ...

Core Insights - The energy sector is highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles and fluctuations in oil and gas prices [1] - ExxonMobil is a large, stable, globally diversified, and integrated energy business, making it a priority for investors seeking relative safety [2] Company Overview - ExxonMobil has a market capitalization of $500 billion and annual sales exceeding $325 billion, leading all peers in the Energy Sector Select ETF [3] - The company operates a mix of "upstream" exploration and production and "downstream" refining, marketing, and petrochemical products, providing a cushion against commodity price fluctuations [4] Financial Performance - In Q3, ExxonMobil distributed $4.2 billion in dividends and repurchased $5.1 billion in stock, marking its 43rd consecutive year of dividend increases [6] - ExxonMobil is one of only two energy sector companies included in the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats® ETF, highlighting its consistent dividend growth [6] Leadership Perspective - ExxonMobil's chairman and CEO, Darren Woods, emphasized the company's unmatched execution scale, innovation, and value delivery in the industry [7]

Investment Thesis on ExxonMobil - ExxonMobil has been consolidating since 2022 and is now approaching the upper end of its range, with $125 per share as a potential breakout trigger [2] - Investors can anticipate a breakout due to the dividend yield and low expectations surrounding the stock [3] - Fundamentals for Exxon are expected to improve in 2026, aligning with positive technical indicators [3] - The company returns a significant amount of capital to shareholders and has become very efficient with current oil prices [4] - Potential upside surprises are expected going into 2026 if commodity prices offer support, given the company's low costs [5] Industry Dynamics and Catalysts - Refining margins are improving significantly, and diesel margins are back to 2024 highs, benefiting companies like ExxonMobil and Marathon Petroleum [6] - ExxonMobil has a growth catalyst in the Golden Pass LNG business, a partnership focused on export LNG [7] - The energy sector is starting to outperform, potentially leading to a reassessment of blue-chip names like ExxonMobil [8] - Data center build will benefit the energy sector, suggesting a longer-term positive outlook beyond 2026 [9] - The energy sector is crucial for the next decade, requiring all forms of energy production [10] Portfolio Strategy - One portfolio has a 21% exposure to energy, driven by high dividends and strategic considerations related to data center growth [9] - There is a potential to increase investment in ExxonMobil towards the end of the year [7] - Another portfolio has approximately 7% exposure to energy [11]

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil is positioned for a potential breakout, with a target price of $125 per share, indicating a significant upward movement from its current levels [2][5]. Company Analysis - Exxon Mobil has been consolidating since 2022 and is now approaching the upper end of its trading range, which could trigger a breakout [2]. - The company is expected to improve its fundamentals by 2026, as indicated by management during their earnings report [4]. - Exxon Mobil has been efficient in managing costs, which positions it well for potential upside surprises if commodity prices improve [5]. Market Context - The energy sector is beginning to outperform, and investors may start to reconsider blue-chip names like Exxon Mobil due to low expectations [8]. - Refining margins are improving, and diesel margins have returned to 2024 highs, benefiting companies like Exxon Mobil and Marathon Petroleum [6]. Growth Catalysts - Exxon Mobil has a growth catalyst in its Golden Pass LNG business, a partnership with Qatar, which is expected to contribute positively to its growth [7]. - The energy sector is anticipated to remain relevant and profitable over the next decade, with a need for diverse energy sources including oil and gas [10]. Investment Strategy - The current portfolio strategy includes a 21% exposure to energy, focusing on companies that offer substantial dividends and strategic growth opportunities [9].

Core Insights - Oil markets have experienced volatility due to geopolitical developments, including new U.S. sanctions on Russian energy and a fragile cease-fire in Gaza, with oil prices trading ~$15/bbl below their 52-week peak [1] - The energy sector reported a third-quarter earnings growth of -0.5%, significantly below the market average growth of 13.1%, and the lowest revenue growth among all U.S. market sectors at 1.0% [1] Company Performance - Big Oil companies, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies, reported better-than-expected profits despite lower oil prices, with Exxon reporting Q3 earnings of $7.54 billion, a 12.4% decline year-over-year [2] - The combined net income of the four Big Oil companies exceeded $21 billion in the third quarter, despite oil prices declining more than 20% from the previous year [2] Cost Management and Production - Exxon achieved $2.2 billion in structural cost savings in Q3, totaling over $14 billion in cumulative savings since 2019, with a target of more than $18 billion by 2030 [3] - Exxon's breakeven point is now $10-15 per barrel lower than five years ago, with a portfolio-weighted breakeven of $40-42 per barrel, allowing for resilience against falling oil prices [3] - Exxon increased hydrocarbon production to 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, with significant contributions from the Permian and Guyana, and brought the Yellowtail project online ahead of schedule, expected to produce 250,000 boe/d [3]

Market Overview - The current market is heavily influenced by a few major tech stocks, particularly in the AI sector, with a notable rebound observed [2][3] - Meta is reported to be flat year-to-date, while Google and Nvidia are highlighted as key players in the market [3] Apple Inc. (AAPL) - Apple is at or near all-time highs, with a focus on retail options order flow driving potential for a gamma squeeze [4][5] - A strategy involving buying 275 calls and selling 285 calls for a $3.50 debit is proposed, targeting a squeeze within the next nine trading sessions [6] - Technical analysis indicates a critical resistance level at 277.32, with potential support levels identified between 255 and 266 [7][8][9] - Apple has shown strong performance, increasing over 11% in the last 30 days [10] Silver ETF (SLV) - The silver ETF SLV has seen a significant rise, but a bearish trade is suggested due to expectations of a pullback after a rapid increase [11][12] - A strategy involving buying a 47 put and selling a 44 put for a $130 debit is proposed, anticipating a short-term pullback [14] - Silver has increased approximately 75% this year, indicating strong market interest [15] Exxon Mobil (XOM) - Exxon Mobil is positioned at the upper edge of a trading range, leading to a bearish outlook [21][22] - A defined risk strategy is suggested, involving buying 115 puts and selling 110 puts for a $90 debit, with expectations for the stock to remain within its historical range [23][24] - Technical analysis shows a choppy trading pattern, with significant levels at 115 and 120, indicating potential resistance and support [25][28][30]

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Core Insights - The five major Western energy companies reported third-quarter earnings, showing an overall increase compared to the second quarter, but still facing significant pressure. They are adjusting through cost-cutting, asset optimization, and shareholder return strategies to survive the industry's downturn [1] ExxonMobil - ExxonMobil reported a third-quarter profit of $7.55 billion, a year-on-year decline of 12.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.6%, with total revenue of $85.29 billion [2] - Daily net production reached 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, driven by strong output from Guyana and the Permian Basin, with Guyana's daily production exceeding 700,000 barrels [2] - The company invested $2.4 billion in "growth acquisitions" during the quarter, particularly in the Permian Basin, and plans to add three floating production storage and offloading vessels in Guyana by 2029 to boost production to nearly 1.5 million barrels per day [2] - ExxonMobil's capital expenditure is expected to be between $27 billion and $29 billion this year, with structural cost savings exceeding $14 billion since 2019, aiming for over $18 billion in cumulative savings by the end of 2030 [2] Chevron - Chevron achieved a third-quarter profit of $3.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.2%, with total revenue of $49.73 billion [3] - The integration of Hess Corporation, acquired for $53 billion, contributed to increased oil production and cash flow, with daily production reaching 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent [3] - Chevron is focused on becoming a stable cash flow "generator" by controlling production growth in capital-intensive shale fields and implementing a global workforce reduction of 20% [3] BP - BP reported a net profit of $2.21 billion for the third quarter, with little year-on-year change and a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [4][5] - The company is undergoing a fundamental strategic adjustment, prioritizing traditional oil and gas operations while reducing renewable energy spending, aiming to lower net debt to $14 billion to $18 billion by the end of 2027 [5][6] Shell - Shell's third-quarter net profit was $5.4 billion, slightly down year-on-year but up 26.8% quarter-on-quarter, with total revenue of $68.153 billion [7] - The company achieved record production in its core areas, particularly in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico, leading to its second-highest quarterly profit in over a decade [7] - Shell announced a $3.6 billion share buyback plan, continuing its commitment to return at least $3 billion to shareholders for the 16th consecutive quarter [7] TotalEnergies - TotalEnergies reported an adjusted net profit of $3.98 billion for the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.6%, with total revenue of $43.84 billion [8] - The company experienced improved performance in both upstream and downstream operations, with oil and gas production increasing by over 4% year-on-year [8] - TotalEnergies plans to convert its American Depositary Receipts into common stock on December 8 to reduce its stock discount compared to U.S. peers, with investment spending expected to remain between $17 billion and $17.5 billion this year [8]

Core Insights - The five major Western energy giants reported their Q3 earnings, showing an overall increase in profits compared to Q2, but still facing significant pressure [1][3]. ExxonMobil - ExxonMobil reported a Q3 profit of $7.55 billion, a year-on-year decline of 12.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.6%, with total revenue of $85.29 billion [5]. - Daily net production reached 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, driven by strong output from Guyana and the Permian Basin, with Guyana's daily production exceeding 700,000 barrels [5]. - The company invested $2.4 billion in "growth acquisitions" during the quarter, including multiple block transactions in the Permian Basin [5]. - ExxonMobil plans to add three floating production storage and offloading units in Guyana by 2029, aiming to increase daily production to nearly 1.5 million barrels [5]. - The CEO stated that new low-cost capacity remains competitive for decades, with projects in Guyana and the Permian Basin breakeven at oil prices below $35 per barrel [5]. - Capital expenditures for the year are expected to be in the range of $27 billion to $29 billion, with structural cost savings exceeding $14 billion since 2019, aiming for over $18 billion by the end of 2030 [5]. Chevron - Chevron achieved a Q3 profit of $3.54 billion, a year-on-year decline of 21% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.2%, with total revenue of $49.73 billion [7]. - The acquisition of Hess Corporation contributed to increased oil production and cash flow, with daily production reaching 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent [7]. - The CEO emphasized efforts to transform the company into a stable cash flow "generator" to better withstand oil market volatility [7]. - Chevron is controlling production growth in capital-intensive shale fields and implementing a global workforce reduction of 20% to enhance cash flow [7]. BP - BP reported a Q3 net profit of $2.21 billion, with little year-on-year change and a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [9]. - Operational improvements and increased oil and gas production offset the impact of falling oil prices, leading to solid performance in Q3 [9]. - The CEO highlighted progress in cost reduction, strengthening the balance sheet, and increasing cash flow and returns, while accelerating strategic adjustments [10]. - BP aims to reduce net debt to $14 billion to $18 billion by the end of 2027, with capital expenditures expected to be around $14.5 billion this year [10]. Shell - Shell reported a Q3 net profit of $5.4 billion, a slight year-on-year decline but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.8%, with total revenue of $68.153 billion [12]. - Record production was achieved in Brazil's deepwater and the highest output in 20 years from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, contributing to the second-highest quarterly profit in over a decade [12]. - The CEO noted strong performance across all business segments, particularly in marketing and deepwater assets, supporting a new round of stock buybacks [12]. - Shell plans to return $3.6 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of at least $3 billion in buybacks [12]. - Capital expenditures for the year are expected to be in the range of $20 billion to $22 billion [12]. TotalEnergies - TotalEnergies reported an adjusted net profit of $3.98 billion for Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.6%, with total revenue of $43.84 billion [14]. - The company benefited from increased oil and gas production and improved downstream performance, with exploration and production earnings of $2.2 billion and downstream earnings of $1.1 billion [14]. - The CEO attributed strong financial performance to over 4% year-on-year growth in oil and gas production and improved downstream results [14]. - TotalEnergies plans to convert its American Depositary Receipts into common stock, aiming to reduce the stock's discount relative to U.S. peers [14]. - Investment spending for the year is expected to remain in the range of $17 billion to $17.5 billion [14].

Core Insights - The quarterly earnings season for major oil companies revealed a trend of lower profits compared to previous years, signaling a return to oil and gas fundamentals [1][2][4] - The global crude oil benchmark Brent has seen a nearly 16% decline year-to-date, raising concerns about a potential oil supply glut [3][5] Financial Performance - Major oil companies reported annual profit declines ranging from 2% to 12%, with specific figures including Chevron (-2%), TotalEnergies (-2%), BP (-6%), Shell (-10%), and ExxonMobil (-12%) [4][5] - Saudi Aramco, the largest by market capitalization, reported a 2.3% decline in profits [5] Investment Trends - Industry leaders emphasized the need for increased investment in oil and natural gas to meet ongoing demand, which is expected to remain above 100 million barrels per day beyond 2040 [6][7] - TotalEnergies' CEO highlighted that the energy transition requires more energy with fewer emissions, indicating a continued reliance on oil and gas [8] Strategic Shifts - BP's CEO announced a strategic shift back to traditional hydrocarbon investments, reducing its focus on low-carbon initiatives after previous costly ventures [9][10] - Other companies, such as Chevron and Shell, have also significantly cut their low-carbon spending, indicating a broader trend within the industry to prioritize higher returns from hydrocarbon projects [10][11] Market Outlook - The industry is facing a potential energy shock if oil project investments are not managed properly, as demand continues to grow [7] - Executives from various companies have expressed a cautious approach to low-carbon spending, citing disappointing demand and inadequate global policies as barriers to investment [11]