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研报掘金|中金:首予裕元集团“跑赢行业”评级及目标价19.46港元
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-02 05:47
Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage of Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings with an "outperform industry" rating and a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a 10.5x P/E ratio for 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Yue Yuen is the world's leading manufacturer of athletic footwear and is expanding its retail business in Greater China [1] - The company holds over 10% of the global footwear shipment market share, with its subsidiary, Pou Chen Corporation, being a leading athletic apparel retailer in Greater China [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Euromonitor, the global athletic footwear market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a forecasted mid-single-digit growth over the next five years [1] - The market is highly concentrated, with the top 10 brands expected to account for 57% of the market share by 2025 [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - CICC anticipates that tariff disruptions will weaken by 2026, and major brand clients' inventory levels are manageable [1] - Brands like Nike are accelerating product innovation, which, along with the growth of several premium brands, is expected to stabilize revenue growth in the manufacturing segment by 2026 [1] - Improvements in newly built capacity and uneven capacity utilization issues are expected to enhance manufacturing performance [1]
裕元集团(00551):全球最大运动鞋制造商,制造+零售双轮驱动,业绩反转可期
GF SECURITIES· 2025-12-31 15:37
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 15.97 and a fair value of HKD 19.99 [4]. Core Insights - The company is the world's largest sports shoe manufacturer, driven by both manufacturing and retail operations, with a potential performance turnaround expected [1][9]. - The manufacturing business is expected to see revenue and profitability improvements due to various factors, including a recovery in order placements from brand clients and a favorable market environment in 2026 [9]. - The retail business is actively pursuing multi-channel and refined operations, which are anticipated to lead to a performance rebound [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally, with a market share based on annual production [14]. - It has a significant workforce of 285,500 employees, with 265,500 in manufacturing and 20,700 in retail [14]. - The company achieved a revenue of USD 8.182 billion in FY2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2][14]. Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment contributed 68.7% of total revenue and 85.2% of profit in FY2024, with revenues of USD 5.621 billion, up 11.1% year-on-year [17]. - The average selling price (ASP) for shoes was USD 20.25, down 5.1% year-on-year due to a higher concentration of high-end products in previous years [17]. - The company has a diversified production base across several countries, with significant output from Indonesia, Vietnam, and China [15][17]. Retail Business - The retail segment, operated through the subsidiary BaoSheng International, generated USD 2.561 billion in FY2024, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year [24]. - The company is optimizing its store network, reducing the number of direct-operated stores to 3,448 while improving average store size [24]. - The retail business is expected to benefit from improved discount rates and effective inventory management [9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.23, USD 0.26, and USD 0.28 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively [9]. - The report estimates a fair value of HKD 19.99 per share based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method [9]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a historical increase of 2044.24% since its listing in 1992, although it has faced challenges in recent years due to external market conditions [46]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fluctuated between 7 and 18 times, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [46].
中金:首次覆盖裕元集团给予“跑赢行业”评级 目标价19.46港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 08:33
Core Viewpoint - CICC reports that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) is a global leader in athletic shoe manufacturing and is expanding its retail business in Greater China, with a diversified global production base. The initial coverage gives an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a P/E of 10.5x for 2026 [1]. Industry Overview - The athletic shoe industry has significant growth potential and is becoming increasingly concentrated. According to Euromonitor, the global athletic shoe market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a mid-single-digit growth rate expected over the next five years. The top 10 brands are anticipated to hold a market share of 57% by 2025, indicating a concentrated market structure [2]. - Yue Yuen is the largest athletic shoe manufacturer globally, with an estimated shipment share exceeding 10%. Its subsidiary, Pou Chen Corporation, is a leading athletic apparel retailer in Greater China. For 2024, Yue Yuen's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be USD 818 million and USD 39 million, respectively, with the manufacturing segment accounting for 69% of revenue and 89% of net profit [2]. Competitive Advantages - The company has strong development capabilities for mid-to-high-end footwear, allowing it to establish deep ties with major international brands such as Nike and Adidas, as well as long-term collaborations with other renowned brands like Asics and New Balance. The top five customers are estimated to account for 80-90% of the manufacturing segment's revenue [3]. - Yue Yuen is at the forefront of global capacity expansion, with a diversified layout of production bases [3]. Business Outlook - With overseas brand inventories at manageable levels and accelerated product innovation, the manufacturing segment's performance is expected to stabilize and grow. By 2026, tariff disruptions may lessen, and major brand clients, exemplified by Nike, are focusing on product innovation. This, combined with the growth of several premium brands, is expected to lead to stable revenue growth in the manufacturing segment [4]. - The company is anticipated to improve its performance due to the resolution of previous capacity ramp-up issues and uneven capacity utilization [4]. Market Differentiation - The company is expected to restart growth by actively optimizing its customer base and structure, leveraging its development capabilities and global capacity layout to ensure performance certainty. The forecasted dividend yield for 2026 is 8.2%, providing a margin of safety. Potential catalysts include the recovery of clients and orders exceeding expectations, as well as improvements in production efficiency [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have EPS of USD 0.23 and USD 0.24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of -0.4% from 2024 to 2026. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E of 8.6x for 2026. Based on a P/E of 10.5x for 2026, the target price is set at HKD 19.46, indicating a 23% upside from the current price, with an initial coverage rating of "outperform" [6].
中金:首次覆盖裕元集团(00551)给予“跑赢行业”评级 目标价19.46港元
智通财经网· 2025-12-31 08:27
Core Viewpoint - CICC's report highlights Yuanyuan Group (00551) as a global leader in athletic shoe manufacturing, with a strong presence in the Greater China athletic footwear and apparel retail market, and a diversified global production base. The report initiates coverage with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a 10.5x P/E for 2026 [1]. Industry Overview - The athletic shoe industry has significant growth potential and is becoming increasingly concentrated. According to Euromonitor, the global athletic shoe market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a mid-single-digit growth rate expected over the next five years. The top 10 brands are anticipated to hold a 57% market share by 2025, indicating a concentrated market structure [2]. Company Positioning - Yuanyuan Group is the largest athletic shoe manufacturer globally, with an estimated shipment share exceeding 10%. Its subsidiary, Pou Sheng International, is a leading athletic footwear and apparel retailer in Greater China. In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be USD 818 million and USD 39 million, respectively, with the manufacturing segment accounting for 69% of revenue and 89% of net profit [2]. Development Capabilities - The company has strong development capabilities for mid-to-high-end footwear, allowing it to establish deep partnerships with major international brands such as Nike and Adidas, as well as long-term collaborations with Asics, New Balance, Salomon, and Arc'teryx. The top five clients are expected to contribute 80-90% of manufacturing revenue [3]. Manufacturing Business Outlook - With overseas brand inventories at manageable levels and accelerated product innovation, the manufacturing business is expected to return to stable growth. The reduction of tariff disruptions by 2026 and the improvement of previously uneven capacity utilization are anticipated to enhance manufacturing performance [4]. Market Differentiation - The company is expected to benefit from actively optimizing its client base and structure, which could lead to renewed growth. The combination of development capabilities and global production layout is projected to provide earnings certainty. The forecasted dividend yield for 2026 is 8.2%, offering a margin of safety. Potential catalysts include the recovery of client orders and better-than-expected production efficiency [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have EPS of USD 0.23 and USD 0.24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of -0.4% from 2024 to 2026. The current stock price corresponds to an 8.6x P/E for 2026. Based on a 10.5x P/E for 2026, the target price of HKD 19.46 indicates a 23% upside from the current level, with an "outperform" rating initiated [6].
300551前实控人,操纵市场,有期徒刑六年
Core Viewpoint - Guoao Technology (300551) announced that its former controlling shareholder and actual controller, Chen Chongjun, was sentenced to six years in prison for manipulating the securities market, along with a fine of 4 million RMB [1][2]. Company Impact - The company stated that the judgment against Chen Chongjun, who is no longer in any operational role, will not have a significant adverse impact on its production and operations, which are currently normal [2]. - Chen Chongjun was the founder of Guoao Technology and held key positions such as Chairman and General Manager until he resigned from the latter in October 2021 and was no longer a board member as of May 2023 [2]. Shareholder Changes - On December 12, 2023, Chen Chongjun transferred his voting rights for 67.69 million shares to Xu Yinghui, making Xu the new actual controller with a total voting rights percentage of 24.41% [4]. - The company plans to conduct a private placement of up to 40 million shares to Xu Yinghui at a price of 10.8 RMB per share, aiming to raise no more than 432 million RMB for working capital [4][5]. Financial Performance - Guoao Technology has reported losses for three consecutive years, with increasing loss margins. As of the end of 2024, the company recorded a total revenue of 297.8 million RMB, a 47.60% decrease year-on-year [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -35.12 million RMB, reflecting a significant decline compared to previous years [9]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 109.44 million RMB, down 49.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of -164.26 million RMB [10].
体育用品股午前集体走高 裕元集团涨超6%李宁涨超5%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 03:24
Group 1 - Sportswear stocks collectively rose in the morning session, with Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (00551) increasing by 6.26% to HKD 17.65 [1] - Li Ning (02331) saw a rise of 5.43%, trading at HKD 18.64 [1] - 361 Degrees (01361) increased by 2.90%, reaching HKD 6.04 [1] - Xtep International (01368) rose by 2.79%, priced at HKD 5.52 [1]
体育用品股集体走高 裕元集团(00551.HK)涨4.46%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-15 02:41
Core Viewpoint - Sportswear stocks have collectively risen, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Company Performance - Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551.HK) increased by 4.46%, reaching HKD 17.35 [1] - Li Ning Company Limited (02331.HK) rose by 4.58%, trading at HKD 18.49 [1] - 361 Degrees International Limited (01361.HK) saw a 3.07% increase, priced at HKD 6.05 [1] - Xtep International Holdings Limited (01368.HK) gained 2.98%, with shares at HKD 5.53 [1]
300551,控制权变更,周一复牌
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-14 22:41
Core Viewpoint - Guoao Technology (300551) announced a change in actual control and plans for a private placement to raise funds, with the new actual controller being Xu Yinghui [1][4][7] Group 1: Change of Control - On December 12, Guoao Technology's actual controller Chen Chongjun signed a voting rights entrustment agreement with Xu Yinghui, transferring the voting rights of 67.6935 million shares to Xu [4] - After the agreement, Xu Yinghui holds a total voting rights proportion of 24.41% in the company, with a direct shareholding of 4.50% [4] - The company's stock will resume trading on December 15 following the change in control [4] Group 2: Background of New Controller - Xu Yinghui controls key enterprises including Beijing Guanghui Shilian Technology Co., Ltd. and Fucheng Investment Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd., and holds a 40% stake in Suzhou Ruixin Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. [4] - Xu has previously invested in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board company Maixinlin, indicating a strategic investment background [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - Guoao Technology faced challenges, reporting a revenue of 298 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 47.60% year-on-year, and a net loss of 351 million yuan [6] - The decline in traditional business profits is attributed to reduced demand for cash machine products and impairment provisions [6] - For the first three quarters, the company reported a revenue of 109 million yuan, down 49.58% year-on-year, with a net loss of 164 million yuan [6] Group 4: Fundraising Plans - Guoao Technology plans to issue up to 40 million shares to Xu Yinghui at a price of 10.8 yuan per share, aiming to raise no more than 432 million yuan for working capital [7] - After the issuance, Xu's voting rights in the company could increase to 32.36% [7] - The fundraising is intended to enhance liquidity, support business development, and improve the company's capital structure and risk resistance [8]
300551闪电式易主!停牌前股价异常大涨
Core Viewpoint - The actual controller of Guoao Technology has changed from Chen Chongjun to Xu Yinghui, who will exercise voting rights over 67.69 million shares, representing 24.41% of the total voting rights after the agreement takes effect [2][5]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - Chen Chongjun signed a voting rights delegation agreement with Xu Yinghui on December 12, transferring the voting rights of 67.69 million shares unconditionally and irrevocably [5]. - After the agreement, Xu Yinghui directly holds 4.50% of the shares and, through the delegated voting rights, controls a total of 24.41% of the voting rights [5][6]. - The stock of Guoao Technology was suspended from trading before the announcement and surged by 8.9% to 13.7 yuan per share before resuming trading on December 15 [2][3]. Group 2: Capital Increase Plan - Guoao Technology plans to issue up to 40 million shares to Xu Yinghui at a price of 10.8 yuan per share, aiming to raise no more than 432 million yuan, which will be used to supplement working capital [5][6]. - After the completion of this issuance, Xu Yinghui's voting rights in Guoao Technology could increase to 32.36% [5]. Group 3: Company Performance - Guoao Technology reported a revenue of 109 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 49.58%, with a net loss of 164 million yuan [6]. - In the third quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 37.24 million yuan, down 47.92% year-on-year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 50.82 million yuan [6]. Group 4: Company Overview - Guoao Technology specializes in providing comprehensive solutions for smart financial systems and financial software products, serving clients including banks, securities firms, and other financial institutions [6].
300551,控制权变更,周一复牌!
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-14 14:49
Group 1 - The core point of the article is the change of control at Guao Technology (300551), with the stock resuming trading on December 15 after the announcement of the control change and a private placement plan [1][4] - Guao Technology's actual controller, Chen Chongjun, transferred voting rights of 67.69 million shares to Xu Yinghui, resulting in Xu holding 24.41% of the voting rights, making him the new actual controller [1][3] - Xu Yinghui's core enterprises include Beijing Guanghui Shilian Technology Co., Ltd. and Fucheng Investment Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd., and he holds a 40% stake in Suzhou Ruixin Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. [1][2] Group 2 - Guao Technology's main business includes financial equipment and financial derivatives, serving clients such as banks and securities companies, with revenue sources from advisory services, equipment sales, and software sales [2] - The company faced challenges in recent years, reporting a revenue of 298 million yuan in 2024, a 47.60% decrease year-on-year, and a net loss of 351 million yuan [3] - The company plans to issue up to 40 million shares at 10.8 yuan per share to Xu Yinghui, aiming to raise up to 432 million yuan to enhance liquidity and support business development [4][5]