公司名稱: Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 裕元工業(集團)有限公司（於百慕達註冊成立之有限公司） 呈交日期: 2025年12月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 FF301 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00551 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.25 HKD | | 500,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,000,000,000 ...

瑞银发布研报称，裕元集团(00551)管理层透露第三季代工业务利润率较上半年提升，主要由于期内加 班情况减少、工人对订单熟悉度提升，以及美国关税政策趋向稳定所致，相信有部分订单提前至第四季 生产。该行目前预期裕元第四季销量将同比下跌，但销售均价可提升。展望明年，瑞银预期个别品牌复 苏或带来利好，若即将来临的假期销售表现强劲，品牌信心增强，亦将利好裕元的销售，并带来新品牌 客户，将目标价从18港元上调至18.4港元，评级"买入"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) management indicated an improvement in the profit margin of its OEM business in Q3 compared to H1, attributed to reduced overtime, increased worker familiarity with orders, and stabilization of U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1 - The management expects some orders to be advanced to Q4 production [1] - UBS forecasts a year-on-year decline in Yue Yuen's Q4 sales volume, but an increase in average selling price [1] - Looking ahead to next year, UBS anticipates a potential recovery for certain brands, which could positively impact Yue Yuen's sales [1] Group 2 - Strong holiday sales performance could enhance brand confidence, benefiting Yue Yuen's sales and attracting new brand clients [1] - UBS raised the target price for Yue Yuen from HKD 18 to HKD 18.4, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights the focus on opportunities in the segmented development of the Chinese consumer sector, with expectations of recovery driven by relaxed monetary policy, improved stock market conditions, and increased offshore financing [1] Group 1: Consumer Sector Outlook - The outlook for the Chinese consumer sector emphasizes the recovery of high-end consumption, supported by favorable monetary policies and market conditions [1] - Credit Lyonnais predicts that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, allowing companies to capture opportunities in market segmentation and global expansion [1] Group 2: Preferred Stocks - The report identifies three preferred stocks: Anta Sports (02020), Yue Yuen Industrial (00551), and Samsonite (01910), with Yue Yuen's target price raised from HKD 16 to HKD 18 [1] - The firm also suggests monitoring the earnings improvement of Li Ning (02331), Yingtong Holdings (06883), and China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) [1] Group 3: Industry-Specific Predictions - Credit Lyonnais forecasts a 3% to 4% year-on-year growth in China's sportswear retail sales for the coming year, attributing this to major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry is expected to see low to mid-single-digit growth in the next year [1] - In the gold and jewelry sector, while price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelers' sales are still anticipated to be affected [1] - In the collectible toy segment, the next catalyst for Pop Mart (09992) may come from IP developments beyond Labubu [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese consumer sector is expected to focus on opportunities in niche markets and high-end consumption, benefiting from relaxed monetary policy, improved stock market conditions, and increased offshore financing [1] - The report predicts that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, with companies poised to capture opportunities in market scaling, globalization, and the recovery of high-end consumption [1] - The report highlights three preferred stocks: Anta Sports (02020), Yue Yuen Industrial (00551), and Samsonite (01910), with Yue Yuen's target price raised from HKD 16 to HKD 18 [1] Group 2 - The forecast for China's sports apparel retail sales is a year-on-year growth of 3% to 4% for next year, with major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry is expected to see low to mid-single-digit growth next year [1] - In the gold and jewelry sector, while product price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelry sales volume is still expected to be affected [1] Group 3 - In the collectible toy sector, the next catalyst for Pop Mart (09992) may come from IP development beyond Labubu [1] - Investors are also advised to pay attention to the earnings improvement of Li Ning (02331), Yingtong Holdings (06883), and China Duty Free Group (01880) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights the focus on opportunities in the segmented development of the Chinese consumer sector, with high-end consumption benefiting from monetary policy easing, stock market improvements, and increased offshore financing [1] Group 1: Consumer Sector Outlook - The Chinese retail sales of sports apparel are expected to grow by 3% to 4% year-on-year in the coming year, with major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry in China is projected to achieve low to mid-single-digit growth next year [1] Group 2: Specific Company Recommendations - Credit Lyonnais identifies Anta Sports, Yue Yuen Industrial, and Samsonite as the top three stock picks in the consumer sector [1] Group 3: Jewelry Market Insights - In the gold and jewelry sector, gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the second half of 2025, and while price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelers' sales may still be impacted [1]

瑞银发表研究报告指，裕元集团管理层透露第三季代工业务利润率较上半年提升，主要由于期内加班情 况减少、工人对订单熟悉度提升，以及美国关税政策趋向稳定所致，相信有部分订单提前至第四季生 产。该行目前预期裕元第四季销量将按年下跌，但销售均价可提升。展望明年，瑞银预期个别品牌复苏 或带来利好，若即将来临的假期销售表现强劲，品牌信心增强，亦将利好裕元的销售，并带来新品牌客 户，将目标价从18港元上调至18.4港元，评级"买入"。 ...

Summary of Yuanyuan Group Conference Call Company Overview - Yuanyuan Group focuses on manufacturing sports and outdoor footwear, accounting for nearly 80% of its business, with major clients including Nike and Adidas [2][12] - The company has a diversified production capacity, with 54% in Indonesia and 32% in Vietnam, ensuring coverage for exports to the U.S. [2][12] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the controlling shareholder being Pou Chen Corporation, holding 51% [3] Key Points and Arguments Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment is expected to achieve single-digit growth from 2024 to 2025, driven by increased concentration among the top five clients [2][12] - A recovery in demand from Nike is anticipated to accelerate manufacturing growth in 2026 [2][12] - The company has optimized its order structure and eliminated unprofitable production lines since 2024, leading to a rebound in profitability [5][12] Retail Business - The retail segment is undergoing a store optimization process, reducing the number of stores from approximately 10,000 to about 7,000, which has improved same-store sales [2][13] - The retail environment is expected to decline in 2024-2025 due to inventory pressures from Nike, but a bottoming out is projected in 2026, with potential growth in 2027 [2][13] - The company is increasing its focus on e-commerce and other channels to achieve higher returns [2][13] Financial Performance - Despite a 5% decline in shipment volume from 2019 to 2024, the company has managed to increase its average selling price by 4%, maintaining stable revenue [2][14] - The gross margin is relatively low, and the company is working on improving efficiency through dynamic capacity allocation and refined management [2][14] Challenges and Opportunities - Challenges include a pressured manufacturing environment and weak domestic demand affecting retail operations [7][10] - Opportunities arise from the expected recovery in demand from core clients and the gradual easing of tariff impacts [8][10] Additional Insights - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 70% for 2023, 2024, and 2025 [3] - The overall profit is expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2026, supported by improvements in both manufacturing and retail segments [20] - The company’s valuation is projected at 8 times earnings with a dividend yield of about 10% [20] Conclusion - Yuanyuan Group is positioned for a recovery phase, with internal management optimizations and external market improvements expected to enhance performance in the coming years [9][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $6.02 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of $280 million, down 16.0% year-on-year. The manufacturing business generated $4.23 billion in revenue, up 2.3% year-on-year, while the retail business saw revenue of $1.79 billion, down 7.9% year-on-year [1][2][5] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - In the first three quarters of 2025, the manufacturing business revenue was $4.23 billion, with a shipment volume of 189 million pairs (up 1.3% year-on-year) and an average selling price (ASP) of $20.88 (up 3.2% year-on-year). In Q3 2025, manufacturing revenue was $1.43 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a shipment volume of 62.7 million pairs (down 5.3% year-on-year) and an ASP of $21.4 (up 3.4% year-on-year) [2][3] - The manufacturing business's revenue by region showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in the U.S. (28.5% share), 11.7% in Europe (27.7% share), and a decrease of 25.9% in mainland China (13.4% share) [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The capacity utilization rate for the manufacturing business was 93% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 18.3% (down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year). The SG&A expense ratio was 10.2% (down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year) [3] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved to 19.4% (down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter), attributed to improved production efficiency and product mix optimization [3] Retail Business - The retail business revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $1.79 billion (down 7.9% year-on-year), affected by a weak retail environment and intensified competition. However, online revenue grew by 13% [4] - In Q3 2025, retail revenue was $520 million, down 6.3% year-on-year, with a significant improvement in October, where revenue was down only 0.7% year-on-year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $8.3 billion, $8.8 billion, and $9.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $393 million, $441 million, and $488 million [5][12]

Core Viewpoint - Yuanyuan Group (00551) shows resilience in its manufacturing business despite seasonal impacts, with a positive outlook for the fourth quarter due to strong order composition and pricing power [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Yuanyuan Group's third-quarter OEM revenue and net profit were reported at 1.434 billion and 109 million USD, respectively, exceeding UBS's expectations by 62% due to higher-than-expected gross margins [1] - UBS raised Yuanyuan's target price from 16 HKD to 18 HKD, reflecting a 5% to 6% increase in net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 based on the DCF method [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The global consumer market is showing steady development, with better-than-expected back-to-school sales in the US, although new tariff policies and geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainties [1] - Despite the negative impacts of reciprocal tariffs, the strong order mix has helped maintain average selling prices, partially offsetting the decline in shipment volumes affecting footwear revenue [1]