V i e w p o i n t | 15 May 2025 18:25:24 ET │ 22 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Answering Questions Now CITI'S TAKE On Monday, our attitude to the tariff news was "trade first, ask questions later" when it came to our portfolio. The left tail of US growth risks has been trimmed, so we paid US rates and reduced USD shorts. Now it's time to answer those questions. Markets feel stuck in an information gap, waiting for flows, fiscal, and trade updates. Trade War Subplots — Recent developmen ...

Aluminium Premiums: Determining Fair Value; Hedge European Premium Upside We have developed an anchor and spread methodology to determine fair value for aluminium premiums, the price paid over the LME price to take physical delivery of metal. The anchor is set by identifying the premium that the buyer of last resort – an LME warehouse in Asia – will pay. We then build up the spread between this premium and the delivered aluminium premiums in the US and Europe. By our estimates premiums are trading close to ...

CITI'S TAKE Breakevens higher — For the week, 5y breakevens were 5.4 bps higher, 10y breakevens were 5.5 bps higher and 30y breakevens were 5 bps higher. Real yields higher — For the week, 5y real yields were 14.9 bps higher, 10y real yields were 9.8 bps higher, and 30y real yields were 5.3 bps higher. 13 May 2025 18:44:45 ET │ 24 pages US Rates Strategy US Inflation Chart Pack May 13 Close Raghav Datla AC V i e w p o i n t | Global Inflation Chart Pack – May 13 Close | Figure 1. Open and closed positions | ...

Figure 1. Latest flows in DM and EM equity funds by geo focus | 14- May- 2025 | | Weekly Flow (USD bn) | | | Fund | 13W Wkly | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ETF (blue) vs non- ETF (grey) | | | Perf | Flow | | -10.0 | - | 10.0 | 20.0 | 30.0 | | | | Global | 5.2 | 5.1 | 0.2 | | 2.7% | | | North America | 20.0 | 20.5 | -0.6 | | 4.6% | | | Western Europe | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | | 1.7% | | | JP | 0.8 | 2.1 | -1.3 | | 2.3% | | | DM AxJ | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | | 1.7% | | | GEM | -0.2 | 1.4 | -1.6 | ...

V i e w p o i n t | 15 May 2025 21:53:32 ET │ 10 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (2): Shipping to US Stabilizes into May CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to May 15th . Overall exports could have softened marginally into May, while we expect positive growth for the whole month thanks to the Phase 1.5 Deal. Shipping to the US stabilized and picked up at the end of April following the earlier slump. Overall exports weakened marginally into May — Container expor ...

V i e w p o i n t | See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision ...

V i e w p o i n t | 11 May 2025 20:26:29 ET │ 21 pages Taiwan PCB & Laminates AI ASIC more to come; prefer GCE to Tripod CITI'S TAKE We expect Gold Circuit (GCE) to win more share in its AI ASIC server business in the coming quarters. For GCE, demand is never a problem and its capacity planning is the key to its robust further growth, which now would be supported by its capacity expansion in Thailand and other plants. For Tripod, its solid execution enabled it to achieve another record GM in 1Q25. We contin ...

12 May 2025 15:57:32 ET │ 13 pages A c t i o n | Global Macro Strategy Tariff gamechanger – trade adjustments CITI'S TAKE The US dropping China tariffs from 145% to 30% represents an effective tariff rate change from 25% to 12%. This is a gamechanger for tactical risk. We cut our long standing EURUSD longs in GAA and GMS. We also take off our USDCNH call spread as the economic backdrop in China looks more benign now. We pay US rates to hedge our receivers in CA, NO, MX, and BR and add an UST UW to hedge our ...

V i e w p o i n t | 12 May 2025 08:43:24 ET │ 9 pages Greater China Semiconductors 90-Day Tariff Reprieve a Mild Tailwind CITI'S TAKE The US and China jointly announced a 90-day pause on tariffs added since Apr 2. The US levies on Chinese imports would drop from 145% to 30% by May 14 while China levies on US imports from 125% to 10%. We view the tariff pause as a slight positive for China semiconductors. Selected semiconductors are already exempt from reciprocal tariffs. Today's tariff reprieve reduces 2H25 ...

VAS and ad — Within VAS, online games revs. +24% yoy to Rmb59.5bn and social network revs +7% yoy to Rmb32.6bn. Total deferred revs. were +15% yoy and +20% qoq to Rmb127.4bn, with current deferred revs. +16% yoy and +23% qoq. Total VAS sub was +3% yoy to 268mn with video at 117mn and music at 123mn. Total capex came in at Rmb27.5bn, up +91% yoy and -25% qoq . CITI'S TAKE 1Q25 total revs were Rmb180.0bn (+13% yoy, +4% q/q and +2.5%/+2.5% vs Citi/BBG consensus of Rmb175.6bn/Rmb175.6bn. Segment breakdown: 1) t ...