Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several banks, including ICBC-H, CCB-H, and BOC-H, based on their above-peer dividend yield and attractive valuations [11]. Core Insights - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to diverge between large banks and regional banks, with regional banks likely to perform better due to higher risk appetite and benefits from time-deposit rate cuts [2]. - Policy-financing instruments are anticipated to support loan growth into 1Q26E, potentially driving new loans of RMB2.5 trillion to RMB5 trillion [3]. - Overall asset quality remains stable, but there is increasing pressure on developer loans and non-mortgage retail loans, with manageable credit risk in mortgage loans [4][7]. - Fee income is improving due to strong agency and custodian fees, although a potential fee rate cut in mutual funds could impact future income [8]. - Big banks maintain flattish earnings growth guidance for 2025E, while regional banks like BOCD and BONJ expect around 5% to 8% earnings growth [9][10]. Summary by Sections Net Interest Margin (NIM) - NIM pressure is expected to moderate into 4Q25E, with large banks anticipating continued year-on-year compression in 2026E [2]. Loan Growth - The distribution of RMB500 billion in policy-financing instruments is expected to enhance loan growth, particularly for banks with higher exposure to infrastructure [3]. Asset Quality - Asset quality is stable overall, but there are rising pressures in developer loans and non-mortgage retail loans, with manageable risks in mortgage loans [4][7]. Fee Income - Fee income has improved, driven by strong performance in asset management, though future fee income may be affected by rate cuts [8]. Earnings Growth - Big banks expect flattish earnings growth in 2025E, while regional banks forecast modest growth, with specific banks like PAB expecting a return to positive year-on-year growth in 2026E [9][10]. Valuation and Equity Raising - The market is focused on potential equity raising, particularly for regional banks trading below 1x book value, which could open financing opportunities for others [10].

Investment Rating - The report rates Minth shares as "Buy" with a target price raised to HK$46 from HK$38, reflecting an expected share price return of 31.4% and a total return of 33.6% [1][7][17]. Core Insights - Management anticipates a positive outlook with revenue growth accelerating in 2026, driven by new business initiatives, a return to growth in domestic revenue, and strong growth in Europe [1][4]. - New business initiatives include robotics, AI server liquid cooling products, and eVTOL, projected to contribute a total revenue of Rmb10 billion by 2030 [2][4]. - The company expects to maintain capital expenditures around Rmb2 billion in 2025/26, leveraging existing auto parts capacity for new initiatives [3]. Revenue and Profit Estimates - The forecast for net profit in 2H25 is Rmb1.48 billion, representing an 18.3% year-over-year increase [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 4-7% to Rmb29.3 billion and Rmb32.0 billion, respectively, due to contributions from new initiatives and improved domestic revenue visibility [4]. - The expected dividend payout ratio for 2025 is projected to rise to 30%, with a dividend yield of 2.2% [4]. Market Share and Growth - Minth's battery housing market share in Europe is expected to increase from approximately 36% in 2024 to over 40% in 2025, supported by design wins from major EV manufacturers [5][6]. - The gross margin for AI server liquid cooling products is anticipated to be around 35% in the early stages, with long-term margins projected at over 30% [2]. Financial Summary - For the year ending December 31, 2023, net profit is reported at Rmb1.903 billion, with diluted EPS of Rmb1.654, reflecting a growth of 26.9% [6]. - The projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 11.2, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [6][18].

Investment Rating - The report rates Pop Mart shares as a Buy, indicating a strong investment opportunity in the pop toy sector [12][4]. Core Insights - Pop Mart is recognized as a leading player in the pop toy industry in China, with a strong capability in IP incubation and operation, which positions it well for growth in the consumer market [12][11]. - The company is expected to see improved investor confidence with upcoming product launches and the popularity of its non-LABUBU IPs in international markets [1]. - The report highlights the company's proactive approach to managing growth sustainability and addressing single IP risks through a diversified IP ecosystem [3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the projected net profit is RMB 13,551 million, with a diluted EPS of RMB 10.160, reflecting a significant growth of 333% compared to the previous year [3][7]. - The expected total return on shares is 93.9%, with a target price set at HK$415.00, representing a potential share price return of 91.8% from the current price of HK$216.40 [4][7]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to enhance the LABUBU IP with new product launches and designs, aiming for a strong market presence in 2026 [2]. - Pop Mart is expanding its international footprint, with plans to operate over 60 stores in the US by the end of 2025 and additional stores in Canada, Mexico, and the Middle East [8]. - The company is focusing on localized operations in overseas markets, including collaborations with local artists and IP designs [8]. Supply Chain Management - Pop Mart is optimizing its production strategy by initially producing 70% of projected sales volume and adjusting stock based on market demand, which is expected to improve sales projection accuracy [9]. - The company has expanded its overseas supply chain, with a portion of production now in Vietnam, and plans to establish more local warehouses for international markets [9].

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the China property sector is mixed, with several companies rated as "Buy" (1) and others as "Hold" (2) or "Sell" (3) [13]. Core Insights - Sales in November are weak, with an estimated drop of approximately 40% year-over-year for listed companies, leading to a projected 25% decline for FY25, which is about 10% below original targets [1]. - High-end projects in key cities are outperforming, while secondary prices are experiencing accelerated declines, impacting market sentiment [1][2]. - Companies are becoming less proactive in new land investments due to slower sales and higher requirements for sell-through and margin visibility [2]. - Booking margins are expected to stabilize with better new land margins, projecting gross profit margins (GPM) of 15-20% for new land acquisitions [3]. - Profit outlook for FY25 is conservative across most companies, primarily due to pressure on booking margins and the timing of REIT disposal gains [4]. - Luxury retail sales are showing strong same-store sales growth (SSSG), with CR Mixc reporting 10-15% SSSG in 10M25 [5]. - Regulatory changes are being implemented to manage online property information, with little expectation for new monetary stimulus [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - November sales are projected to decline by about 40% year-over-year, with FY25 expected to conclude at a 25% decrease [1]. - High-end projects are performing better than average, while secondary market prices are declining [1]. Land Investment - Companies are setting higher thresholds for new land acquisitions due to slower sales [2]. - COLI has allocated Rmb20 billion for land costs in 10M and is targeting Rmb30 billion for FY [2]. Margins and Profitability - New land margins are expected to improve, with GPM projected at 15-20% for certain companies [3]. - Profit outlook for FY25 remains conservative, with many companies facing margin pressures [4]. Rental and Retail Performance - Luxury retail SSSG is strong, with CR Mixc achieving 10-15% SSSG in 10M25 [5]. - Non-luxury malls are also showing positive growth, albeit at lower rates [5]. Regulatory Environment - New regulations are being introduced to manage online property information, with limited expectations for new stimulus measures [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for CMOC is "Buy" with a target price of HK$20.60, indicating an expected total return of 22.0% including a dividend yield of 2.3% [6][8]. Core Insights - CMOC's net profit in 3Q25 exceeded market expectations, driven by a lower effective tax rate, realized cobalt sales, and strong minor metals prices [2]. - The company anticipates sustainable copper output growth due to technology upgrades, with a guidance of 0.8-1.0 million tonnes (mnt) for 2028E and the KFM phase 2 project expected to operate in 1H27E with an average output of 100,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa) [3]. - Copper production costs have decreased year-over-year in 9M25 due to increased output and cost control measures [4]. - Cobalt output is expected to remain stable despite potential adjustments in production methods, with a total cobalt quota of over 30,000 tonnes allocated for TFM and KFM projects in 2026E [5]. Financial Performance - CMOC's market capitalization is approximately HK$368.41 billion (US$47.40 billion) [6]. - The net financial expenses have decreased year-over-year in 9M25 due to the repayment of long-term debt [5]. - The DCF valuation methodology used yields a fair-value target price of HK$20.60, based on an 11% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Ning is "Buy" with a target price of HK$18.10, representing an expected share price return of 3.1% and an expected total return of 6.0% [3][5]. Core Insights - Li Ning's retail sales growth during the 11.11 Festival was in line with management's expectations, and the company has maintained its 2025 full-year guidance of year-on-year flattish sales with high single-digit net profit margin [1][2]. - The company aims to balance channel inventory control and retail discounting, with a target to reduce the channel-inventory-to-retail-sales ratio to 4-5x by the end of Q4 2025, likely closer to 4x [1][2]. - Management remains pragmatic about the business outlook for 2026, focusing on growing running and fitness categories, enhancing sports-casual products, and increasing footwear sales mix to over 60% from the current 50% [2]. - Li Ning has launched COC-themed products in Q4 2025, divided into three categories: Award Ceremony Outfit, Gold Label, and mass-market products, with expectations for stronger growth in COC products in 2026-2027 [2]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales and Guidance - Retail sales growth during the 11.11 Festival was in line with expectations, maintaining 2025E guidance of flattish sales and high single-digit net profit margin [1][2]. Inventory Management - The company is focused on controlling channel inventories and retail discounts, aiming for a channel-inventory-to-retail-sales ratio of 4-5x by the end of Q4 2025 [1][2]. Product Strategy - Li Ning is enhancing its focus on running and fitness categories, sports-casual products, and footwear, with a target to increase footwear sales mix to over 60% [2]. COC Product Launches - The company has launched COC-themed products in Q4 2025, with expectations for growth in 2026-2027, supported by branding campaigns around the Milan Winter Olympics 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Horizon Robotics is "Buy" with a high risk designation [7]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics expects significant growth in shipments for 2026, projecting high-end shipments between 300,000 to 500,000 units, mid-end shipments around 3 million units, and low-end shipments approximately 2 million units. Key contributors to high-end shipments are anticipated to be Chery and Chang'an, accounting for 50% of the total [1][2]. - The company maintains its guidance to ship 4 million units of automotive-grade processing hardware in 2025, with mid-to-high end products making up 50% of this total [2]. - Horizon Robotics has secured design wins for its high-end ADAS solution from Chery and Chang'an, with mass production of the first models expected in the second half of 2025 [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) for various products is detailed as follows: HSD (J6P) at US$700, HSD (dual J6M) at US$400, mid-end ADAS at US$90-100, and low-end ADAS at US$20-30 [4]. - The gross margin for the J6P chip is around 50%, while the software component has a gross margin close to 100% [5]. - Horizon Robotics has established collaborations with overseas tier-1 suppliers such as Bosch, Continental, and Denso to enhance its competitiveness in international markets [5]. - The company aims to increase its market share with BYD's God's Eye C solution in 2026 and plans to explore additional solutions [9]. - Horizon Robotics believes its HSD offers a competitive edge over Huawei's ADAS solution due to its high value for money, making it suitable for mass-market models [10]. - The deployment of HSD is expected to facilitate the development of Robotaxi systems, with a partnership announced with Hello Inc. in September 2025 [11]. - The valuation of Horizon Robotics is based on projected strong growth in the ADAS market from 2025 to 2030, with a target price set at HK$12.30, reflecting a potential return of 49.1% [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb51.40, implying a potential downside of 21.7% from the current price of Rmb65.610 [6][8]. Core Insights - The lithium output for Huayou Cobalt is projected to increase from 35kt in the first nine months of 2025 to 60-80kt in 2026 due to the ramp-up of the lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe. The comprehensive production cost for lithium is currently less than Rmb70k/t LCE and is expected to decrease by Rmb10k/t LCE post ramp-up [2][4]. - Nickel intermediate output is not expected to see significant year-over-year growth in 2026, as both Huayue and Huafei projects have achieved over 100% capacity utilization. The Pomalaa project is anticipated to commence operations by the end of 2026 [3]. - Cobalt output primarily comes from MHP projects in Indonesia, with expectations of strong cobalt prices due to quota policies in the DRC, although increased output from Indonesian projects may exert long-term price pressure [4]. - NCM cathode sales volume reached approximately 70kt in the first nine months of 2025, representing an 80% year-over-year increase, with expectations to reach around 100kt in 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Lithium - Lithium output is expected to rise significantly in 2026 due to the lithium sulfate project ramp-up, with production costs projected to decrease [2]. Nickel - Nickel output is stable with no significant increase expected in 2026, and the Pomalaa project is set to begin operations by year-end 2026 [3]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to policy impacts, but increased output from Indonesia may create long-term price pressures [4]. Cathode - NCM cathode sales are on a strong upward trajectory, with significant growth expected in 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for various sectors within the technology and communications industry, particularly for 2026, with several companies expected to experience revenue growth and improved margins [1][5][20]. Core Insights - The memory price hike is anticipated to primarily affect low-to-mid end smartphone models, while high-end models are expected to remain largely unaffected [2][4]. - The upcoming foldable flagship smartphones are projected to drive significant upgrades in components such as UTG, hinge spindles, and heatsinks, with a notable focus on AI edge devices expected to launch in late 2026 [3][10]. - The adoption of 200MP CIS is expected to increase, particularly for telephoto and main cameras, contributing to a stronger performance in the semiconductor sector [4][15]. - The IT services and software sector is projected to see low-teen percentage revenue growth in 2026, with companies like Kingdee and ChinaSoft expecting significant improvements [5][16][17]. Summary by Sections Memory Market - Memory price hikes are expected to impact low-to-mid end models but not high-end models, with limited room for further ASP cuts [2]. Hardware - The foldable flagship smartphone is expected to drive upgrades in various components, with a focus on AI edge devices anticipated to contribute to revenue starting in late 2026 [3][10]. Semiconductors - The semiconductor sector is expected to see strong growth in 2026, driven by the adoption of high-resolution CIS and a shift towards computing and automotive segments [4][15]. IT Services and Software - Companies in the IT services sector, such as Kingdee and ChinaSoft, are optimistic about revenue growth in 2026, with expectations of AI-related projects contributing to this growth [5][16][17]. Smart Glasses and XR - The smart glasses market is expected to see significant growth, with total shipments projected to double in 2026, driven by demand from key US customers [13]. Automotive - The automotive sector is expected to experience growth, with companies like AAC and SO projecting significant revenue increases in 2026 [12]. Panelmakers - Panelmakers like BOE anticipate that upcoming sports events will boost TV LCD stocking and prices in 1Q26, alongside growth in IT replacement demand [11]. AI and Edge Computing - The AI edge device market is expected to present opportunities for companies involved in smart device manufacturing, with potential contributions from major players in the supply chain [10].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Sany Heavy Industry with a target price of Rmb28.00, indicating an expected share price return of 35.5% and an expected total return of 37.9% [7]. Core Insights - Sany Heavy Industry is shifting its focus from aggressive pricing strategies to "quality growth," aiming for over 10% year-on-year revenue growth in China, driven by electrification and demand from non-property sectors [1][3]. - The company targets approximately 15% year-on-year revenue growth overseas, particularly in Africa and ASEAN, while utilizing its Indonesian facility to navigate geopolitical and tariff challenges in the US market [4]. - Mining equipment is identified as a key product area, with significant aftermarket opportunities, as it represents about 70% of lifecycle spending [5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - The construction demand in China remains lukewarm, primarily due to weaker demand from property and infrastructure sectors. However, Sany expects to achieve over 10% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025-26 through electrification and increased crane demand from wind and petrochemical sectors [3]. Overseas Strategy - Sany aims for around 15% year-on-year revenue growth in international markets, with a positive outlook for demand in Africa and ASEAN. The company plans to leverage its Indonesian facility to ship excavators to the US, circumventing geopolitical and tariff issues [4]. Focus on Mining Equipment - The initial investment in mining equipment is only about 30% of total lifecycle spending, with aftermarket services accounting for approximately 70%. Sany's revenue from mining equipment exceeding 100 tons is projected to reach Rmb2 billion in 2025, with targets of Rmb3 billion in 2026 and Rmb6 billion by 2028 [5].