Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment opportunity in Brazil's environmental sectors, particularly in climate and biodiversity solutions, positioning Brazil as a leader in these areas [4][15][64]. Core Insights - Brazil is seen as a decisive vector for climate solutions, with significant potential for catalytic investments to bridge the climate finance gap in Latin America [27][30]. - The Brazilian Amazon rainforest is critical for climate stability, providing essential ecosystem services and opportunities for innovative financial conservation strategies [17][69]. - The integration of climate, communities, and biodiversity is essential for strengthening the resilience of the Amazon rainforest, with investments in nature viewed as a long-term strategic asset [64][66]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Citi Research hosted an event in São Paulo to discuss challenges and opportunities related to climate and biodiversity with various stakeholders [13][14]. What Really Reduces Deforestation? - Effective deforestation control requires a market-based approach, emphasizing the need for well-defined property rights in the Amazon region [21][23]. - A carbon price of US$25 per ton could incentivize communities to preserve forests and regenerate degraded lands [25]. LatAm: A Decisive Vector for Climate Solutions - The report highlights the investment opportunities in Latin America to mobilize capital at scale for climate solutions [27][28]. - Domestic investors in Brazil are focused on creating innovative products that yield positive socio-environmental outcomes while achieving financial returns [29]. Biogas, Biomethane and Organo-mineral Fertilizer - Tupy's bio plant project exemplifies a successful partnership in renewable fuel production, transforming pig waste into biogas and organo-mineral fertilizer [33][36]. Tackling Beef Traceability - Minerva Foods has achieved 100% geospatial monitoring of direct-supplier farms in Brazil, addressing traceability challenges in the beef supply chain [39][40]. Agriculture 3.0 and BE8 Energy Panels - Brazil's agricultural sector has evolved significantly, with a focus on sustainability and efficiency, conserving approximately 324 million hectares from agricultural conversion [44][46]. Investing in Nature: Climate Impact through Carbon Ratings - The Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System (SBCE) presents a major opportunity for Brazil to enhance its climate targets and stimulate domestic demand for carbon credits [60][62]. Beyond Carbon with High Integrity Forest Conservation - High integrity forest conservation initiatives can deliver benefits beyond carbon offsetting, integrating climate, communities, and biodiversity [64][66]. Looking to COP30 Belém - The upcoming COP30 in Belém is anticipated to focus on the Amazon rainforest's role in climate stability and the need for market instruments to achieve environmental and economic outcomes [69][71].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Victory Giant Tech is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb407.0, indicating an expected share price return of 19.6% and a total expected return of 19.9% [5][9]. Core Insights - Victory Giant Tech (VGT) reported 3Q25 results that missed CitiE expectations, with revenue of Rmb5.1 billion, which is 10% below expectations. The gross profit was Rmb1.8 billion, also missing expectations by 12% [2][3]. - The fluctuation in 3Q25 results is attributed to the largest customer's product transition and a mismatch between new capacity coming online and the mass production of new AI orders. It is anticipated that 4Q25 will see a return to sequential growth supported by normalized production and order ramp-up [4][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 3Q25 revenue was Rmb5.1 billion, an 8% increase QoQ but 10% below CitiE estimates. Gross profit was Rmb1.8 billion, down 2% QoQ, with a gross margin of 35.2%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower QoQ [2][7]. - Operating profit for 3Q25 was Rmb1.3 billion, a decrease of 6% QoQ, with an operating margin of 26.2%, missing expectations by 12% [2][7]. - Net profit printed at Rmb1.1 billion, down 10% QoQ, with a net margin of 21.7%, hitting the low-end of investor expectations [2][7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the 2026 growth theme remains intact, driven by robust demand for GenAI-related PCB and potential improvements in average selling price and gross margin due to a favorable product mix [9]. - The expected earnings CAGR from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 96%, supported by growth in AI-related products and opportunities in datacenter switches and ASICs [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates Han's CNC Technology (HC) as "Buy/High Risk" due to its strong positioning to benefit from the AI PCB super cycle [20]. Core Insights - Han's CNC reported a significant earnings surprise in 3Q25, with net profit reaching Rmb228 million, representing a 282% year-over-year increase and a 56% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by higher contributions from AI-related products [1][2]. - The target price for Han's CNC has been raised to Rmb140, reflecting a 13% increase, based on a 50x P/E ratio for 2026E, which is considered not aggressive given the company's projected earnings CAGR of 98% for 2025-26E [4][21]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from strong demand for AI PCB equipment, with forecasts indicating net profit growth of 134% and 67% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [20]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In 3Q25, Han's CNC achieved record revenue of Rmb1.52 billion, a 95% increase year-over-year and a 7% increase quarter-over-quarter, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 34.0%, up 8.6 percentage points year-over-year [2][11]. - The revenue contribution from AI-related PCB equipment increased from approximately 15% in 1H25 to over 30% in 3Q25, significantly impacting profitability [1][2]. Forecasts - For 4Q25, net profit is estimated to reach Rmb213 million, reflecting a 117% year-over-year increase, driven by a 64% year-over-year sales growth and GPM expansion of 5.8 percentage points [3]. - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward by 16% and 13%, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [1][12]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb140 is based on a 50x P/E for 2026E, which aligns with the average P/E over the past three years, suggesting a favorable valuation given the expected earnings growth [4][21]. - The report highlights a positive implication for Han's Laser (HL), which owns 83.6% of Han's CNC, due to the strong performance of HC [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies involved Core Insights - The Game Theory framework indicates that the current tariff regime between the US and China represents a Nash equilibrium, where both sides are better off maintaining the status quo rather than escalating tariffs further [5][19][29] - China’s recent restrictions on rare earth elements (REE) have led to a significant increase in its projected losses, from $76 billion under the trade truce to $212 billion due to new tariffs [19][21] - The US is projected to gain $219 billion instead of $67 billion due to the new tariff regime, despite the loss of REE supply [20][21] Summary by Sections Trade War Dynamics - The report discusses the implications of the trade war, particularly focusing on the tariffs imposed by both the US and China, and how these tariffs affect bilateral trade [3][16] - The introduction of tariffs has led to an expected 18.1% decline in Chinese exports to the US and a 3.4% drop in US exports to China [37][41] Tariff Projections - The US is expected to collect $82.2 billion in tariffs from Chinese exports, while China will collect around $13.5 billion from US exports [41][46] - The current tariff regime of 30% on Chinese goods and 10% on US goods is seen as more favorable for China compared to previous higher tariffs [51][54] Rare Earth Elements (REE) - The report highlights the strategic importance of REE in the trade war, noting that China has a near-monopoly on REE processing, accounting for 99% of global production [54][70] - The US is currently reliant on China for 70% of its REE, but plans are in place to reduce this dependency by 2027 [70][81] Future Expectations - The report anticipates that China will likely impose retaliatory tariffs of 110% in response to the US tariffs, which would further escalate the trade war [26][27] - The potential for a renewed trade agreement at the upcoming APEC summit is contingent on China's actions regarding retaliatory tariffs [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Innolight and Eoptolink, with target prices updated to Rmb569 and Rmb472 respectively [15][26]. Core Insights - The networking sector is viewed positively due to optimistic growth forecasts for ASICs from Broadcom, strong long-term capital expenditure outlooks from Meta/OpenAI, and Oracle's significant datacenter expansion plans, indicating better demand visibility beyond 2026 [2][11]. - Despite a strong year-to-date rally, profit-taking is expected; however, the overall narrative remains compelling with a potential re-rating of transceiver companies to a PE of 20x+ [2][3]. - The report highlights a revision in industry demand estimates for 800G and 1.6T transceivers, projecting shipments of 56.3 million and 19.2 million respectively for FY27, reflecting a 42% year-over-year growth [11][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the longevity of demand in the transceiver market, driven by significant AI investments from major US cloud service providers [11]. - The expected rollout of 3.2T SiPh transceivers in late 2027 is noted as a key development, with 800G and 1.6T remaining dominant solutions in the interim [11][29]. Company Performance - Innolight is expected to secure a higher market share due to its strong R&D capabilities and its role as a key supplier for Oracle, alongside benefiting from the anticipated EML shortage [26][27]. - Eoptolink is projected to gain market share as it capitalizes on its LPO capabilities and the rapid build-out of Oracle's datacenter [15][26]. Financial Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY26 have been revised upwards, with a projected revenue of Rmb46.287 billion, reflecting a 20% increase from previous estimates [19][30]. - Net profit estimates for FY26 have also been increased to Rmb19.535 billion, a 22% rise compared to earlier projections [19][30]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that while some tier-2 companies are planning to enter overseas markets, significant progress has yet to be observed [3]. - The potential for a 20-30% penetration of CPO in the market by 2029-2030 is highlighted, although major CSPs have not yet shown signs of mass adoption [3][11].

V i e w p o i n t | 05 Sep 2025 05:52:40 ET │ 14 pages US Semiconductor Equipment Citi Tech Conference Day 2 Takeaways CITI'S TAKE We hosted fireside chats with OLED, AEIS, NVMI, SLAB, ONTO and Lasertec as part of Day 2 Citi's Global TMT Conference. Please see detailed notes inside. Atif Malik AC +1-415-951-1892 atif.malik@citi.com Elizabeth Sun, CFA +1-212-816-3308 elizabeth.sun@citi.com Papa Sylla +1-212-816-9476 papa.sylla@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Res ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including MCHP, TXN, AVGO, MU, ADI, and NXPI, with MCHP identified as the top pick due to expected upside to estimates [1][6][15]. Core Insights - The Analog sector shows mixed signals, with Infineon expressing caution while ON Semiconductor reports stable bookings, particularly in the automotive market [2][9]. - AI order rates have recently increased, positively impacting companies like AMD and AVGO, driven by a significant rise in capital expenditures in the AI sector [5][13]. - The Industrial end market remains strong and above seasonal expectations, while the Automotive sector is currently weaker and below seasonal levels [3][10]. Summary by Sections Analog Sector - Infineon is cautious about its outlook for fiscal 2026, suggesting that consensus estimates may not fully account for tariffs, while ON Semiconductor indicates stable business conditions, particularly in the automotive sector [2][9]. - Expectations for ADI are positive, anticipating that its stock will perform well due to favorable commentary compared to other analog companies [4][12]. AI Sector - Demand from the AI sector has surged, with capital expenditures increasing by $18 billion during the earnings season, benefiting AMD and AVGO [5][13]. DRAM Market - HPQ reports memory price increases and anticipates continued price strength in the second half of 2025, having purchased inventory to mitigate cost increases [6][14]. - MCHP is highlighted as having the most potential upside due to significant declines in sales and margins from peak levels [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "1" (Buy) to Western Digital Corporation (WDC), Seagate Technology Holdings (STX), and Amphenol Corporation (APH), while CDW Corporation (CDW), HP Inc. (HPQ), and NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) receive a rating of "2" (Neutral) [8]. Core Insights - The hardware and storage industry is experiencing robust demand driven by AI tailwinds, limited production capacity, and stable pricing, with demand consistently exceeding supply [2][4]. - Companies are focusing on enhancing their product offerings and operational efficiencies to capitalize on the growing demand for high-speed connectivity and data storage solutions [3][19][42]. Company Summaries Western Digital Corporation (WDC) - WDC anticipates a 23% CAGR in enterprise business (EB) demand, driven by AI, with a baseline growth of 15% [27]. - The company is focused on delivering scalable and reliable growth, with significant purchase orders from top customers providing visibility into 2027 [27][28]. - WDC is investing in ePMR and HAMR technologies to enhance storage capacity and reliability [27][32]. Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) - STX expects mid-20s% growth in nearline EB, with demand outpacing supply [37]. - The company is qualifying major cloud customers for its HAMR technology, aiming to meet increasing demand for higher density storage solutions [34][37]. - STX maintains a focus on cost efficiency and capital allocation, with a capex of 4-6% of revenues [41]. Amphenol Corporation (APH) - APH is optimistic about demand in the IT datacom segment, driven by data center interconnect needs [51]. - The company is achieving sustainable incremental margins of over 30% through disciplined execution and a diverse product portfolio [51][55]. - APH's recent acquisitions are expected to enhance its capabilities and market position [53][55]. CDW Corporation (CDW) - CDW's performance reflects resilience due to a diverse portfolio and disciplined execution, with expectations for continued growth despite macroeconomic caution [5][13]. - The company is capitalizing on cloud transitions and the complexity of technology to drive demand for its services [13][18]. - CDW is focused on integrating AI into its offerings to enhance operational efficiencies and customer experiences [18]. HP Inc. (HPQ) - HPQ projects unit growth in PCs at a mid-single-digit rate through 2025, driven by a refresh cycle and the transition to AI PCs [22]. - The company is optimizing its supply chain and expects revenue growth to outpace unit growth in premium categories [22]. - HPQ anticipates a slight decline in print revenues due to enterprise prioritization of other investments, though this is expected to be temporary [22][23]. NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) - NTAP is gaining market share with its refreshed portfolio, focusing on data modernization and AI implementation [42]. - The company expects cautious enterprise IT spending but sees potential upsides in a more favorable macro environment [42]. - NTAP is positioned to benefit from the shift towards AI workloads, which are expected to drive significant data growth [47].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies including Sunny Optical, Q Tech, Lens Tech, and Kingdee [1][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in technology and product offerings within the China Technology and Telecom (TMT) sector, particularly in smartphone and AI applications [1]. - There is a promising outlook for AI Glasses, handheld cameras, sports smartwatches, and humanoid robots, indicating potential growth areas for investment [1]. - The report notes that more SaaS companies are expected to reach breakeven or profitability by 2025, with Kingdee targeting double-digit revenue growth [1][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Smartphone/PC - Sunny Optical anticipates over 500% year-on-year growth in its miniature CCM products, despite challenges in the domestic market [2]. - Q Tech's periscope solution is expected to see widespread adoption among Android brands, with significant growth in ultrasonic FPM mix anticipated in the second half of 2025 [2]. iOS Developments - Lens Tech is set to provide upgraded back cover glass for new iPhone models, with significant ASP growth expected [3]. - Lingyi iTech's content value in the Pro Max model is projected to increase by approximately 20% in the second half of 2025 compared to the previous model [3]. AI and Wearables - The report discusses ongoing development challenges for smart glasses, with a focus on chipset and battery life improvements [8]. - Sunny is optimistic about the demand for handheld cameras, while Zepp operates across three product lines in the smartwatch market [9]. Automotive Sector - Sunny anticipates increased camera adoption in vehicles, with the average number of cameras per vehicle rising to 4.3 from 3.5 in 2024 [11]. - The company has allocated Rmb1.5 billion for LiDAR projects, which are expected to contribute significantly in the coming years [11]. Robotics - Lens Tech aims to supply 1,000 to 2,000 units of humanoid robots in 2025, with rapid revenue growth expected in this segment [12]. SaaS Sector - Kingdee is maintaining its break-even target for 2025, with expectations of double-digit revenue growth [13]. - MYC anticipates a narrowing year-on-year decline in revenue for the second half of 2025, with property management revenue expected to grow faster due to larger orders [13][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on both the Hong Kong and Chinese markets, indicating a potential decline in the HSI and CSI300 indices [1][2]. Core Insights - The CGHKFRGR indicators suggest an expected 11% decline from the close on August 27, targeting a level of 22,381.6 for the HSI, with an 83.9% probability of at least an 8% decline [1][2]. - Concerns are raised regarding the Chinese A-share market due to margin loan positions and a lack of earnings growth, with expectations that the CSI300 will give back gains from early August [5][13]. - The report highlights that the HSI appears overvalued relative to the CSI300 by about 1,800 points, suggesting a potential drop to 21,800 if the CSI300 moves to 4,060 [13][15]. Summary by Sections Macro Analysis - Speculation exists that China may support equity markets ahead of a military parade, but bearish notes have been published on both markets [1][2]. - The report indicates that the HSI has historically moved lower at least 8% of the time after CGHKFRGR hits 80 [3]. A-Shares vs H-Shares - The report expresses skepticism about the Chinese government's ability to implement major stimulus measures, with a focus on the declining macro environment [5]. - The report suggests that the HSI is a better candidate for shorting due to its higher beta and overvaluation compared to A-shares [15]. Vulnerable Stocks - A table lists stocks most vulnerable to correction, indicating that recent market rebounds provide better opportunities for selling and shorting [11]. - Specific stocks such as Meituan and Alibaba are highlighted for their potential declines, with probabilities of significant drops noted [11]. Trading Strategies - A trading strategy is recommended involving selling a 2-month CSI300 102% call and buying a 2-month HSI 90% put, providing a buffer on the upside in the CSI300 [16].