V i e w p o i n t | Taiwan Technology Sector Monthly Tracking – April Sales Largely on Track, AI Supply Chain Continues Showing Strength CITI'S TAKE Despite robust April sales, due to significant NTD appreciation in May, we would expect monthly sales revenue to peak out in April and 2H outlook to be bumpier given some early order pull-in in 1H25 as well as the tariff uncertainty. We understand investors' concerns on upstream and downstream shipment mismatch in AI GPU/accelerator and the rack shipment. With ...

V i e w p o i n t | 09 May 2025 16:00:00 ET │ 17 pages US Equity Strategy What Q1 Earnings Are Telling Us About Tariff Policy CITI'S TAKE The Q1 reporting season storyline is that falling revisions heading into reports set up for a solid positive surprise. When combined with a push out on tariff impacts, equities have rallied. Yet, Q1 upside translated into full year downside to consensus EPS estimates. Notably, we are seeing signs of consumer softening in the company and macro data. That this is unfolding ...

V i e w p o i n t | 12 May 2025 17:44:22 ET │ 26 pages Metal Matters Expecting gold to consolidate $3-3,300/oz over the coming months, downgrading 0-3m target price to $3,150/oz CITI'S TAKE Gold prices reached record highs in late April and breached our 0-3m point- price target of $3,500/oz as gold demand fired on all cylinders. As tariff concerns drove a significant part of the last leg higher, gold prices are likely to continue consolidating amid progresses on tariff negotiations. In this quarterly update ...

12 May 2025 05:04:38 ET │ 9 pages Flash | China Economics US-China Phase 1.5 Deal Much Better than Expected CITI'S TAKE The US-China tariff reductions have come in even bigger than our bullish expectations. The US's effective tariff on China has been lowered to 38.6%, per our estimates, back to the non-prohibitive days. Looking ahead, the 20% Fentanyl tariff could be a low-hanging fruit for further reduction, in our view, and its rollback could further remove the external hurdle for the Chinese economy. The ...

Flash | 11 May 2025 22:23:52 ET │ 9 pages China Economics The Likely Shape of US-China Phase 1.5 Deal – Quick Take on the Geneva Talks CITI'S TAKE The US and China held a 2-day long conversation in Switzerland. We see the progress as a potential Phase 1.5 deal, resolving the easy part of the trade talks between the two countries. The Fentanyl tariffs and escalatory tariffs could be rolled back, and China is likely to make concession in reversible areas. It is now more likely in our view that the effective t ...

Andrew Hollenhorst AC +1-212-816-0325 andrew.hollenhorst@citi.com Veronica Clark AC V i e w p o i n t | 09 May 2025 08:21:40 ET │ 13 pages US Economics The Daily Update – Tariff rates remain higher CITI'S TAKE Risk assets reacted positively to the news that the US will engage in trade talks with China and the announcement of a preliminary trade deal with the UK. But 10% tariffs are staying in place with the UK and President Trump indicated other countries should expect higher tariff rates. Direct and indire ...

V i e w p o i n t | 08 May 2025 13:30:14 ET │ 19 pages Global Credit Derivatives Strategy Financials are Key to Trading inside of CDX IG CITI'S TAKE The iTraxx Main-CDX IG compression call from our 2025 Outlook reached our initial parity target, providing an opportunity to revisit the trade. Macro and fundamental trends over this year embolden us to seek further upside and we retain our Main preference over IG. We initiate an options relative value trade between iTraxx Senior Fins and CDX IG as another way ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Flash | 08 May 2025 18:10:43 ET │ 12 pages Shopify Inc (SHOP.O) Takeaways from 1Q25 Group Callback CITI'S TAKE We caught up with Shopify management in a group callback following the 1Q25 earnings call. Our key takeaways are as follows: Guidance Tariffs Buy / High Risk | Price (08 May 25 16:00) | US$94.00 | | --- | --- | | Target price | US$135.00 | | Expected share price return | 43.6% | | Expected dividend yield | 0.0% | | Expected total return | 43.6% | | Market Cap ...

Flash | | Price (07 May 25 16:00) | US$232.25 | | --- | --- | | Target price | US$345.00 | | Expected share price return | 48.5% | | Expected dividend yield | 0.0% | | Expected total return | 48.5% | | Market Cap | US$23,004M | Yigal Nochomovitz, Ph.D.AC +1-212-816-1441 yigal.nochomovitz@citi.com 07 May 2025 22:56:30 ET │ 10 pages BeiGene (ONC.O) Well-Positioned for The Long Game. Brukinsa Surpasses Calquence & Imbruvica in US Qtrly Sales, Reiterate Buy CITI'S TAKE The transformation to a global, Swiss-domi ...

Flash | 08 May 2025 10:13:27 ET │ 9 pages China Specialty Chemicals Lithium into 2nd week of May – Lithium accelerates the downtrend CITI'S TAKE Lithium expedites the downtrend last week, whereas ASP of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was down by 4% WoW and 2% WoW respectively. According to SMM, lithium production pipeline is estimated to be +2% MoM / 21% YoY to ~75.5k tons in May-25, indicating a lower monthly growth rate vs downstream cathode/battery production pipeline at 4% MoM and 3% MoM respec ...