Investment Rating - The investment rating for Apple, Inc. is "Buy" with a target price of $240, representing an expected total return of 22.8% from the current price of $196.25 [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Apple is experiencing a decline in search traffic on Safari for the first time, attributed to the rise of AI, and is actively seeking partnerships with AI providers to enhance Safari's search capabilities [1][2]. - Google pays Apple approximately $20 billion annually, which constitutes 36% of the revenue generated from Apple platforms, to remain the default search engine. The potential loss of this revenue could significantly impact Apple's earnings per share (EPS) [1][2]. - The report presents three scenarios for Apple's TAC revenue: a bull case with no changes, a base case with a reduction to one-third of current revenue, and a bear case with no TAC revenue at all, estimating EPS impacts of $1 to $1.5 in the base and bear cases respectively [1][5]. Revenue Projections - In the bull case scenario, total revenue for FY24 is projected at $391 billion, with Google TAC contributing $25 billion. EPS is estimated at $6.08 [5]. - In the base case scenario, total revenue is projected to decrease to $387 billion, with Google TAC revenue dropping to $10 billion, resulting in an EPS of $6.16 [5]. - In the bear case scenario, total revenue is expected to fall to $378 billion, with no contribution from Google TAC, leading to an EPS of $5.66 [5]. Valuation - The target price of $240 is based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28x on the FY2027 EPS estimate, which is an 8% premium to Apple's historical P/E levels, justified by expanding gross margins and a growing services sales mix [7].

Flash | 09 May 2025 09:28:09 ET │ 12 pages Coinbase Global Inc (COIN.O) Mission to Scale Accelerating; Buy COIN CITI'S TAKE 1Q'25 results were in line with expectations, matching both Transaction (up 16% YoY / down 20% QoQ) and Subs-n-Services (up 15% YoY / up 2% QoQ) revenue expectations. Coinbase did outperform ~4% on adj. EBITDA (46% margin) and adj. EPS. More importantly, we came away impressed with Coinbase's scaling initiatives in derivatives ($800bn global derivatives trading volume in 1Q) with new p ...

1Q25 wrap-up CITI'S TAKE 08 May 2025 21:33:19 ET │ 13 pages Flash | Monthly battery installation data pack from Real Lithium suggests that March 2025 China EV battery installation totaled 61.4GWh, +54% MoM / +56% YoY, bringing 1Q25 EV battery installation to 148.9Wh (+54% YoY). We notice (1) CATL is inevitably shifting to the low-end market YTD, and (2) Xiaomi extends the robust momentum into 2025 with a new model SU7 Ultra gaining the market share whilst Huawei trended weaker. We are relatively cautious on ...

V i e w p o i n t | The overall capacity growth is +8% YoY in June and the capacity growth into US is +4%, and the capacity growth into Europe is +10%. Cancelled sailings decreased to 8.0% this week (vs. 9.8% last week), higher than previous year level of 5.5%. Total number of scheduled sailings increased c.+11% YoY. Idling rate decreased to 4.0% by TEU (vs. 4.5% last week) this week, with ten- year average at 4.5% by TEU. Schedule reliability improved in March to 57.5% (vs 54.5% in previous month). 09 May ...

Flash | 08 May 2025 12:20:00 ET │ 12 pages GoerTek (002241.SZ) New ESOP Announced; Restated Same KPI For 2025/26 CITI'S TAKE GoerTek released 2025 ESOP (Draft) on 8th May. We noted that: (1) the 2025/2026 financial performance target is the same with the 2023 ESOP. (2) 2025 revenue target is 41%/35% higher than CitiE/VAe, and NP target is 26%/22% below CitiE/VAe. (3) 2026 revenue target is 59%/46% higher than CitiE/VAe, and NP target is 26%/17% below CitiE/VAe. (4) The exercise price is set to be Rmb22.10, ...

Flash | 08 May 2025 04:19:11 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #64 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on a demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Sxcoal, a consultant, on 100 sample China thermal coal mines' production and inventory data during the week of 1st to 7th May 2025. Our revised near ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 06 May 2025 14:08:19 ET │ 36 pages China Hardware and Semiconductors 4Q24/1Q25 Results Wrap and Inventory Tracker | Dull results again; Semis inventory digestion continues CITI'S TAKE 19%/20% of our 4Q24/1Q25 results beat (vs. 23% in 3Q24) while most semis missed. Our China tech inventory tracker indicated relatively healthy inventory levels for consumer electronics hardware in 1Q25, while AI hardware stayed at high levels likely due to strategic stocking. Meanwhile, successi ...

V i e w p o i n t | 02 May 2025 13:06:59 ET │ 23 pages US Economics Weekly Three stages of tariff impacts CITI'S TAKE Market optimism is building in anticipation of upcoming trade deals and as hard data have not yet weakened in line with much softer survey data. Real GDP contracted a modest 0.3% in Q1 on strong imports, while private domestic demand rose a strong 3.0%. April employment grew by 177k jobs, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. But we would caution that recent data have not reflec ...

Flash | 01 May 2025 08:23:38 ET │ 12 pages Xiaomi (1810.HK) Quick Take – EV Apr Shipment to 28k+ CITI'S TAKE Xiaomi reported SU7 Apr delivery exceeded 28k units. We expect the lower delivery amount vs. Mar of 29k+ is due to fewer working days in Apr. Combined Yiche Jan-Mar Xiaomi SU7 shipment data, we estimate Xiaomi YTD EV delivery could exceed 104k units, making 30% of its 2025 delivery target of 350k (vs. CitiE' 400k). We believe plant Phase1 capacity increase and Phase2 capacity online in 3Q25 could sup ...

China TransInfo Technology (002373.SZ) Quick Take: Mixed 1Q25 Print – Op. Profit Miss but Earnings Beat on Investment Income CITI'S TAKE Flash | Transinfo reported 1Q25 results with 1Q25 revenue edging up 2% YoY to Rmb1.6bn, 18% ahead BBGe, and 1Q25 GM expanded 0.6ppts YoY to 29.7%, 4.6ppts below BBGe. 1Q25 opex stood at Rmb555mn (flat YoY), 34% higher than BBGe, thus the 1Q25 operating loss came in at Rmb77mn. Helped by the gain from a fair value change in investment of Rmb302mn, 1Q25 net profit was Rmb221 ...