Core Insights - THK's Q4 2024 performance fell short of expectations, with a sequential decline in orders across various segments [7] - The company anticipates a brighter outlook for its Japan and China operations in 2025, projecting revenue growth in these regions [7] - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Neutral" with a target price adjustment to 3,900 JPY [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, THK expects total revenue of 352.8 billion JPY, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with a projected net profit of 10.4 billion JPY, reflecting a significant decline of 43.3% [7][8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 376.9 billion JPY, 393.9 billion JPY, and 402.9 billion JPY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.5 billion JPY, 17.2 billion JPY, and 19.3 billion JPY [7][8] Order Trends - In Q4 2024, THK's orders for machine tools, general machinery, and semiconductor equipment decreased by 4.8%, 6.3%, and 1.4% respectively, indicating a potential loss in market share [7] - Regionally, orders in Japan, Europe, and the Americas saw declines of 5.4%, 3.7%, and 4.3%, while orders from Taiwan increased by 21.3%, driven by growth in semiconductor equipment and components [7] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company's P/B ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.42, 1.38, and 1.34 respectively, indicating a moderate valuation trend [7][8] - The report highlights a projected operating profit margin of 4.9% for 2024, with expectations of improvement to 6.5% by 2025 [7] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - THK's cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 28 billion JPY in 2024, with significant capital expenditures projected at -30 billion JPY [8] - The company anticipates a net cash increase of -28 billion JPY for 2024, reflecting ongoing investment needs [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the U.S. retail industry, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The U.S. retail industry has evolved through various stages, focusing on increasing product variety, convenience, quality, and cost-effectiveness [4][15]. - The current main retail formats include e-commerce, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, department stores, discount retailers, convenience stores, and specialty retailers [4][29]. - Key trends in the retail market include the integration of online and offline channels, the rise of private label brands, and the diversification of e-commerce models [4][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Evolution of U.S. Retail - The evolution of U.S. retail can be divided into five stages, each characterized by changes in consumer needs and technological advancements [15]. - Before 1930, grocery stores dominated, with limited product variety and a focus on basic necessities [16]. - From 1930 to 1960, suburban supermarkets and specialty stores emerged, driven by urbanization and increased car ownership [17]. - The period from 1960 to 1990 saw the rise of department stores and warehouse clubs, fueled by rising GDP and a growing middle class [20]. - Between 1990 and 2000, discount retailing and convenience stores gained popularity due to rising income inequality and fast-paced urban lifestyles [26]. - Since 2000, e-commerce has become the dominant retail format, with a significant increase in online penetration from 0.92% in 2000 to 14.38% in 2022 [27]. 2. Current Main Retail Formats and Representative Companies - E-commerce, represented by Amazon, excels in product variety but faces challenges in delivery speed [29]. - Supermarkets, led by Walmart, maintain a balanced approach across multiple dimensions of retail [29]. - Warehouse clubs, exemplified by Costco, focus on speed, quality, and cost savings [29]. - Department stores, like Macy's, struggle under e-commerce pressure, losing their competitive edge in product variety [29]. - Discount retailers, represented by TJX, offer significant savings but may lack product variety [29]. - Convenience stores, such as Casey's, prioritize speed but may not compete well on variety and price [29]. - Specialty retailers, like Home Depot, provide a balanced offering with a focus on quality and customer service [29]. 3. Company-Specific Insights - Walmart is positioned as a leading omnichannel retailer, with over 80% of its revenue coming from the U.S. [4][26]. - Costco's membership model significantly contributes to its profitability, with membership fees accounting for over 70% of net profit [4][31]. - TJX has substantial growth potential in store openings, although it faces challenges in expanding its online presence [4][38]. - Home Depot is focusing on developing a B2B one-stop procurement platform to enhance its market position [4][47].

Summary of Key Points Core View - The Nikkei 225 index experienced fluctuations but ultimately rose by 4.4% in December, with a total annual increase of approximately 19.2% for 2024, driven by a 12.8% rise in Bloomberg EPS consensus expectations and a 5.6% increase in dynamic PE [1][2]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index rebounded to around 40,000 points at the beginning of December, influenced by the surge in U.S. tech stocks, but later declined due to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a drop in U.S. stocks [1][2]. - Foreign capital continued to flow out, with a net outflow of $7.15 billion in December, following a trend from November; however, there was a total net inflow of $1.6 billion for the entire year of 2024 [1][2]. Currency and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar strengthened in December, leading to a continued depreciation of the Japanese yen, which closed around 158 yen per dollar [4][6]. - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates, with the governor indicating a cautious approach to future rate hikes, contributing to the yen's depreciation [4][6]. Bond Market and Inflation - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield fluctuated around 1% in December, with minimal volatility, despite rising U.S. bond yields influenced by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [6]. - Japan's inflation showed a notable rebound in November, with core CPI (excluding fresh food) at 2.7% year-on-year and core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) at 2.4%, up from previous values of 2.3% [6]. Sector Performance - The TOPIX index rose by 3.9% in December, with the transportation equipment sector performing exceptionally well, increasing by 18.5% due to the yen's depreciation [8]. - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors also performed well, supported by the rise of U.S. tech stocks, while the easing of visa restrictions for Chinese citizens visiting Japan boosted investor sentiment in domestic consumption sectors [8].

Group 1 - The Nikkei index experienced a slight decline due to increased external uncertainties, with a cumulative drop of 2.2% in November, while the Nikkei 225 index rose approximately 14.2% year-to-date as of the end of November [2][5] - Foreign capital saw a net outflow of $2.75 billion in November, reversing the small net inflow from October, while the cumulative net inflow for 2024 reached $8.77 billion [2][5] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield surpassed 1% at the beginning of November, influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields, but retreated from a high of 1.08% later in the month [3][9] Group 2 - The core CPI in Japan for October was reported at 2.3% year-on-year, with the core-core CPI also at 2.3%, showing a slight decrease from previous values [3][9] - The mining, securities, and transportation equipment sectors performed the best in November, with the securities sector rising by 9.2%, while the construction, pharmaceuticals, and textile sectors saw significant declines [3][9] - Notable stocks in the Japanese market included Aoyama Trading, Musashi Seimitsu Industry, and Furukawa Electric, which showed strong performance in November [15][17]

Investment Highlights - THK's Q3 2024 performance was below expectations, with a significant share buyback indicating long-term confidence in growth [1][4] - The company reported a total revenue of 265.1 billion yen for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [2] - The operating profit for the same period was 12.92 billion yen, down 32.7% year-on-year, reflecting a challenging market environment [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 364.3 billion yen, 393.2 billion yen, and 420.3 billion yen respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 19.3 billion yen, 22.3 billion yen, and 25.0 billion yen [3][4] - The company's P/E ratios for the next three years are projected at 15.6, 13.5, and 12.0 times [3] Order Trends - THK's orders for machine tools and semiconductor equipment showed significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 40.3%, 51.4%, and 14.9% respectively [1] - Orders from different regions demonstrated varied performance, with Japan and China (excluding Taiwan) showing increases of 21.1% and 65.2% respectively [1] Share Buyback Plan - The company plans to repurchase up to 20 million shares, representing approximately 16.31% of outstanding shares, with a total buyback amount not exceeding 40 billion yen [4] - This buyback is expected to enhance earnings per share by 19.5% in 2025 [4]

Economic Overview - In October 2024, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 46.5, down from 47.2, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment[1] - The US ISM Services PMI increased to 56.0 from 54.9, showing continued strength in the services sector[1] - The probability of an economic recession in the US over the next 12 months decreased to 46.1% from 56.2%, indicating reduced recession fears[1] - ADP reported an increase of 233,000 new jobs in October, up from 143,000 in the previous month, suggesting a positive trend in employment[1] MRO Industry Insights - The MRO industry growth in September was primarily driven by price increases, with the US Private Capital Equipment PPI rising 2.6% year-on-year, compared to 2.5% previously[2] - The industrial production index for manufacturing showed a year-on-year decline of 0.35% in September, down from 0.00%[2] - In Q3 2024, US domestic private investment grew by 5.5% year-on-year, down from 7.8%, while GDP growth was 2.7%, down from 3.0%[2] - US exports increased by 4.5% year-on-year, up from 3.5% previously, indicating a warming in corporate investment and exports[2] Political Impact - The return of Donald Trump to the presidency is expected to benefit the MRO industry, potentially leading to tax cuts and regulatory relaxations[2] - Increased tariffs may raise procurement costs for MRO companies but could also boost demand from returning manufacturing[2] Risks - The report highlights several risks including geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic fluctuations, supply chain disruptions, raw material price volatility, exchange rate risks, and liquidity risks[3]

Group 1: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology expert suggests that industrial e-commerce can effectively reduce procurement costs for enterprises and combat issues like procurement kickbacks[1] - Zhejiang is identified as a key battleground for industrial e-commerce, with major players like Alibaba and JD.com launching strategies to optimize procurement processes and enhance user experience[1] - The 2024 Korea MRO International Conference held in Daejeon aims to explore cooperation in defense, aviation, and energy sectors, highlighting the importance of MRO technology development[2] Group 2: Company Developments - Hanwha Ocean has secured a routine maintenance contract for the US Navy's replenishment ship USNS YUKON, which will be delivered by April 2025[3] - JAL Engineering, a leading player in Japan's MRO sector, emphasizes the need to address structural supply chain issues within the domestic aerospace industry, supported by approximately 4,600 employees[3] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The report highlights several risks including geopolitical risks, macroeconomic fluctuations, supply chain disruptions, raw material price volatility, exchange rate risks, and liquidity risks[4]

Core Insights - The report highlights that IBIDEN's Q2 FY2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 93.4 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and operating profit of 17.2 billion yen, up 8.3% year-on-year [2] - The demand for AI-related products continues to be strong, particularly in the ABF substrate business, which benefits from the growth of AI servers and high-performance computing (HPC) products [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for FY2024-2026, with net profit estimates revised to 37.9 billion yen, 55.6 billion yen, and 73.2 billion yen respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates due to slower-than-expected recovery in the PC and general server markets [3] Financial Performance - For H1 FY2024, IBIDEN reported total revenue of 181.6 billion yen, a decline of 3.2% year-on-year, while operating profit increased by 18.4% [2] - The gross margin for Q2 FY2024 was 35.1%, an increase of 6 percentage points compared to Q1 FY2024 [2] - The revenue from the packaging substrate business in Q2 FY2024 was 53.3 billion yen, up 2.4% year-on-year, with operating profit of 12.7 billion yen, an increase of 9.8% [2] Business Segments - The report indicates that the demand for AI server-related products is driving growth in the ABF substrate business, with the company being a key supplier for NVIDIA [3] - The general server market is experiencing a product upgrade cycle led by Intel, which is expected to enhance the value of products [3] - The report notes that the worst period for the PC market has passed, with AI PCs contributing to new growth [3] Valuation and Investment Rating - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for IBIDEN is projected to be 17.4 for FY2024, 11.8 for FY2025, and 9.0 for FY2026 [8] - The target price is set at 7,100 yen, based on an 18 times P/E for FY2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that Lasertec's Q1 FY25 revenue was 36.7 billion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 22.3%, while operating profit increased by 54.9% to 15.9 billion yen, and net profit attributable to the parent company rose by 16.0% to 8.9 billion yen [2] - The slowdown in investment from core downstream customers due to geopolitical risks and monetary tightening has led to revenue falling short of expectations, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2][3] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the company maintains confidence in its long-term growth trajectory and has not adjusted its annual sales target, reflecting a strong belief in its mid-to-long-term business plan [3] Financial Performance - For FY2024, total revenue is projected at 213.5 billion yen, with a year-on-year growth of 39.7%, and net profit expected to reach 59.1 billion yen, reflecting a growth of 28.0% [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 81.4 billion yen for FY2025, 109.8 billion yen for FY2026, and 140.2 billion yen for FY2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.7, 16.8, and 13.2 respectively [1][3] - The company is positioned as a leader in semiconductor testing equipment, particularly in EUV mask testing, which is expected to benefit significantly from AI-driven demand [3] Market Position and Valuation - Lasertec's current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 31.3, with a target price set at 43,267 yen based on a projected P/E of 50 for FY2025 [3] - The company has a strong market capitalization of 1,849.4 billion yen, with a price-to-book ratio of 12.22 [4] - The report emphasizes the company's monopolistic position in EUV mask testing equipment, which provides a significant competitive advantage [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The packaging substrate industry in Japan is experiencing a continuous upward trend, driven by demand from Nvidia's AI servers, leading to both volume and price increases [2][4] - In North America, the PCB book-to-bill ratio was 0.99 in August 2024, with a year-on-year shipment volume increase of 22.3% and a decline in order volume by 10.3% [1] - Taiwan's PCB industry maintains high prosperity, with manufacturers across PCB manufacturing, equipment, and materials all achieving year-on-year growth [3] Summary by Sections North America PCB Market - The North American PCB book-to-bill ratio for April to August 2024 fluctuated between 0.95 and 1.06, indicating no significant recovery [1] - August 2024's shipment volume increased by 22.3% year-on-year, while order volume decreased by 10.3% [1] Japan PCB Market - Japan's overall PCB output value in August 2024 was 449 billion yen, down 2.3% year-on-year, with the packaging substrate segment showing an 11% increase [2] - The average selling price (ASP) for packaging substrates has shown consistent month-on-month growth, reaching 36.5 million yen per square meter in August 2024 [2] - The shipment area for packaging substrates has also seen steady growth, with a year-on-year increase in shipment area for the first eight months of 2024 [2] Taiwan PCB Market - Taiwan's PCB manufacturers reported revenues of 623 billion to 720 billion New Taiwan dollars from January to September 2024, with an overall year-on-year growth of 9.3% [3] - The revenue for hardboard and carrier board manufacturers showed a year-on-year increase of 12.7% to 16.3% during the same period [3] - Equipment and materials manufacturers in Taiwan also reported positive growth, breaking a trend of decline that lasted for over a year [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Ibiden, as the packaging substrate industry in Japan is expected to achieve steady growth due to the influence of high-end AI servers from Nvidia [4]