Core Insights - THK's Q4 2024 performance fell short of expectations, with a sequential decline in orders across various segments [7] - The company anticipates a brighter outlook for its Japan and China operations in 2025, projecting revenue growth in these regions [7] - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Neutral" with a target price adjustment to 3,900 JPY [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, THK expects total revenue of 352.8 billion JPY, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with a projected net profit of 10.4 billion JPY, reflecting a significant decline of 43.3% [7][8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 376.9 billion JPY, 393.9 billion JPY, and 402.9 billion JPY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.5 billion JPY, 17.2 billion JPY, and 19.3 billion JPY [7][8] Order Trends - In Q4 2024, THK's orders for machine tools, general machinery, and semiconductor equipment decreased by 4.8%, 6.3%, and 1.4% respectively, indicating a potential loss in market share [7] - Regionally, orders in Japan, Europe, and the Americas saw declines of 5.4%, 3.7%, and 4.3%, while orders from Taiwan increased by 21.3%, driven by growth in semiconductor equipment and components [7] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company's P/B ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.42, 1.38, and 1.34 respectively, indicating a moderate valuation trend [7][8] - The report highlights a projected operating profit margin of 4.9% for 2024, with expectations of improvement to 6.5% by 2025 [7] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - THK's cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 28 billion JPY in 2024, with significant capital expenditures projected at -30 billion JPY [8] - The company anticipates a net cash increase of -28 billion JPY for 2024, reflecting ongoing investment needs [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the U.S. retail industry, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The U.S. retail industry has evolved through various stages, focusing on increasing product variety, convenience, quality, and cost-effectiveness [4][15]. - The current main retail formats include e-commerce, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, department stores, discount retailers, convenience stores, and specialty retailers [4][29]. - Key trends in the retail market include the integration of online and offline channels, the rise of private label brands, and the diversification of e-commerce models [4][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Evolution of U.S. Retail - The evolution of U.S. retail can be divided into five stages, each characterized by changes in consumer needs and technological advancements [15]. - Before 1930, grocery stores dominated, with limited product variety and a focus on basic necessities [16]. - From 1930 to 1960, suburban supermarkets and specialty stores emerged, driven by urbanization and increased car ownership [17]. - The period from 1960 to 1990 saw the rise of department stores and warehouse clubs, fueled by rising GDP and a growing middle class [20]. - Between 1990 and 2000, discount retailing and convenience stores gained popularity due to rising income inequality and fast-paced urban lifestyles [26]. - Since 2000, e-commerce has become the dominant retail format, with a significant increase in online penetration from 0.92% in 2000 to 14.38% in 2022 [27]. 2. Current Main Retail Formats and Representative Companies - E-commerce, represented by Amazon, excels in product variety but faces challenges in delivery speed [29]. - Supermarkets, led by Walmart, maintain a balanced approach across multiple dimensions of retail [29]. - Warehouse clubs, exemplified by Costco, focus on speed, quality, and cost savings [29]. - Department stores, like Macy's, struggle under e-commerce pressure, losing their competitive edge in product variety [29]. - Discount retailers, represented by TJX, offer significant savings but may lack product variety [29]. - Convenience stores, such as Casey's, prioritize speed but may not compete well on variety and price [29]. - Specialty retailers, like Home Depot, provide a balanced offering with a focus on quality and customer service [29]. 3. Company-Specific Insights - Walmart is positioned as a leading omnichannel retailer, with over 80% of its revenue coming from the U.S. [4][26]. - Costco's membership model significantly contributes to its profitability, with membership fees accounting for over 70% of net profit [4][31]. - TJX has substantial growth potential in store openings, although it faces challenges in expanding its online presence [4][38]. - Home Depot is focusing on developing a B2B one-stop procurement platform to enhance its market position [4][47].

证券研究报告·海外策略·日本市场 日本市场月报 202412 [Table_Main] 日经指数震荡上涨，日元继续贬值 摘要： [Table_Author] 2025 年 1 月 8 日 分析师 陈睿彬 (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk [Table_Report] 相关报告 《日本市场月报 202411：日经指 数小幅下跌，10 年日债利率突破 1%》 2024-12-16 《日本市场月报 202410：日经指 数窄幅波动，日元快速贬值》 2024-11-13 ◼ 日经指数震荡上涨，外资继续流出。月初，在美国大型科技股的带动下， 纳斯达克指数加速上涨，带动日经 225 指数反弹至 40,000 点附近。但随 后美联储在 12 月 FOMC 会议上传递鹰派信号、美股出现大跌，市场情 绪较为消极，日经指数回落。整体来看，12 月日本股市震荡上涨，日经 指数累计上涨 4.4%；2024 全年，日经 225 指数累计上涨约 19.2%，其 中彭博 EPS 一致预期上涨 12.8%，动态 PE 上涨 5.6%。12 月外资净流 出 71.5 亿美元，延续 11 月净流出趋势； ...

证券研究报告·海外策略·日本市场 [Table_Main] 日经指数小幅下跌，10 年日债利率突破 1% [Table_Author] 2024 年 12 月 17 日 摘要： 分析师 陈睿彬 (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk [Table_Report] 相关报告 ◼ 外部不确定性增加，日经指数小幅下跌。月初，随着美国大选落地、特 朗普交易继续推动美股大涨，日股跟随美股上涨，金融板块领涨大盘。 但随后美联储降息预期减弱，且投资者对中国经济的信心回落，抑制了 日经指数的上涨势头。月底，随着乌克兰局势恶化、特朗普宣布对中国、 加拿大和墨西哥加征更严厉的关税，日经指数表现较为疲软。整体来看， 11 月日本股市持续震荡，日经指数累计下跌 2.2%；年初至 11 月底，日 经 225 指数累计上涨约 14.2%，其中彭博 EPS 一致预期上涨 13.3%，动 态 PE 上涨 0.7%。11 月外资净流出 27.5 亿美元，继 10 月小幅净流入后 重新转为净流出；2024 年外资累计净流入 87.7 亿美元。 《日本市场月报 202410：日经指 数窄幅波动，日元快速贬值》 ...

THK（6481.T） 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·日本机械 [Table_Main] 2024 年三季报点评：业绩不及预期；大笔回购彰显 长期发展信心 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|--------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（十亿日元） | 351.9 | 364.3 | 393.2 | 420.3 | | 同比 | -10.6% | 3.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | | 归母净利润（十亿日元） | 18.4 | 19.3 | 22.3 | 25.0 | | 同比 | -13.2% | 5.0% | 15.4% | 12.2% | | 每股收益 - 最新股本摊薄（日元 / 股） | 150.1 | 157.6 | 204.0 | 228.9 | | P/E ( 现价 & 最新股本摊薄 ) | 0.84 | 0.81 | 0.87 | 0. ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·MRO 分销与贸易商 MRO 行业数据跟踪点评报告 [Table_Main] 24年10月美国宏观数据好坏参半，9月MRO 行业由价格推动增长 投资要点： [Table_Author] 2024 年 11 月 13 日 分析师 李润泽 (852) 3982 3213 leonli@dwzq.com.hk [Table_Report] 相关报告 ◼ 10 月美国宏观数据好坏参半。MRO 行业主要面向企业客户，企业客户 采购决策与经营情况息息相关，因此跟踪美国 MRO 行业需重点关注宏 观经济数据。2024 年 10 月，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 46.5，前值 47.2， 制造业景气度下滑；美国 ISM 服务业 PMI 录得 56.0，前值 54.9，服务 业景气度继续走好；美国未来 12 个月经济衰退概率录得 46.1%，前值 56.2%，市场对美国经济衰退担忧继续减弱；ADP 新增就业人员万人 23.3 万人，前值 14.3 万人，新增就业继续转好。2024 年 9 月，美国全部工 业部门产能利用率录得 77.5%，前值 77.8%；美国制造业库存同比增长 0.2%，前 ...

Group 1: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology expert suggests that industrial e-commerce can effectively reduce procurement costs for enterprises and combat issues like procurement kickbacks[1] - Zhejiang is identified as a key battleground for industrial e-commerce, with major players like Alibaba and JD.com launching strategies to optimize procurement processes and enhance user experience[1] - The 2024 Korea MRO International Conference held in Daejeon aims to explore cooperation in defense, aviation, and energy sectors, highlighting the importance of MRO technology development[2] Group 2: Company Developments - Hanwha Ocean has secured a routine maintenance contract for the US Navy's replenishment ship USNS YUKON, which will be delivered by April 2025[3] - JAL Engineering, a leading player in Japan's MRO sector, emphasizes the need to address structural supply chain issues within the domestic aerospace industry, supported by approximately 4,600 employees[3] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The report highlights several risks including geopolitical risks, macroeconomic fluctuations, supply chain disruptions, raw material price volatility, exchange rate risks, and liquidity risks[4]

Core Insights - The report highlights that IBIDEN's Q2 FY2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 93.4 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and operating profit of 17.2 billion yen, up 8.3% year-on-year [2] - The demand for AI-related products continues to be strong, particularly in the ABF substrate business, which benefits from the growth of AI servers and high-performance computing (HPC) products [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for FY2024-2026, with net profit estimates revised to 37.9 billion yen, 55.6 billion yen, and 73.2 billion yen respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates due to slower-than-expected recovery in the PC and general server markets [3] Financial Performance - For H1 FY2024, IBIDEN reported total revenue of 181.6 billion yen, a decline of 3.2% year-on-year, while operating profit increased by 18.4% [2] - The gross margin for Q2 FY2024 was 35.1%, an increase of 6 percentage points compared to Q1 FY2024 [2] - The revenue from the packaging substrate business in Q2 FY2024 was 53.3 billion yen, up 2.4% year-on-year, with operating profit of 12.7 billion yen, an increase of 9.8% [2] Business Segments - The report indicates that the demand for AI server-related products is driving growth in the ABF substrate business, with the company being a key supplier for NVIDIA [3] - The general server market is experiencing a product upgrade cycle led by Intel, which is expected to enhance the value of products [3] - The report notes that the worst period for the PC market has passed, with AI PCs contributing to new growth [3] Valuation and Investment Rating - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for IBIDEN is projected to be 17.4 for FY2024, 11.8 for FY2025, and 9.0 for FY2026 [8] - The target price is set at 7,100 yen, based on an 18 times P/E for FY2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that Lasertec's Q1 FY25 revenue was 36.7 billion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 22.3%, while operating profit increased by 54.9% to 15.9 billion yen, and net profit attributable to the parent company rose by 16.0% to 8.9 billion yen [2] - The slowdown in investment from core downstream customers due to geopolitical risks and monetary tightening has led to revenue falling short of expectations, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2][3] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the company maintains confidence in its long-term growth trajectory and has not adjusted its annual sales target, reflecting a strong belief in its mid-to-long-term business plan [3] Financial Performance - For FY2024, total revenue is projected at 213.5 billion yen, with a year-on-year growth of 39.7%, and net profit expected to reach 59.1 billion yen, reflecting a growth of 28.0% [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 81.4 billion yen for FY2025, 109.8 billion yen for FY2026, and 140.2 billion yen for FY2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.7, 16.8, and 13.2 respectively [1][3] - The company is positioned as a leader in semiconductor testing equipment, particularly in EUV mask testing, which is expected to benefit significantly from AI-driven demand [3] Market Position and Valuation - Lasertec's current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 31.3, with a target price set at 43,267 yen based on a projected P/E of 50 for FY2025 [3] - The company has a strong market capitalization of 1,849.4 billion yen, with a price-to-book ratio of 12.22 [4] - The report emphasizes the company's monopolistic position in EUV mask testing equipment, which provides a significant competitive advantage [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The packaging substrate industry in Japan is experiencing a continuous upward trend, driven by demand from Nvidia's AI servers, leading to both volume and price increases [2][4] - In North America, the PCB book-to-bill ratio was 0.99 in August 2024, with a year-on-year shipment volume increase of 22.3% and a decline in order volume by 10.3% [1] - Taiwan's PCB industry maintains high prosperity, with manufacturers across PCB manufacturing, equipment, and materials all achieving year-on-year growth [3] Summary by Sections North America PCB Market - The North American PCB book-to-bill ratio for April to August 2024 fluctuated between 0.95 and 1.06, indicating no significant recovery [1] - August 2024's shipment volume increased by 22.3% year-on-year, while order volume decreased by 10.3% [1] Japan PCB Market - Japan's overall PCB output value in August 2024 was 449 billion yen, down 2.3% year-on-year, with the packaging substrate segment showing an 11% increase [2] - The average selling price (ASP) for packaging substrates has shown consistent month-on-month growth, reaching 36.5 million yen per square meter in August 2024 [2] - The shipment area for packaging substrates has also seen steady growth, with a year-on-year increase in shipment area for the first eight months of 2024 [2] Taiwan PCB Market - Taiwan's PCB manufacturers reported revenues of 623 billion to 720 billion New Taiwan dollars from January to September 2024, with an overall year-on-year growth of 9.3% [3] - The revenue for hardboard and carrier board manufacturers showed a year-on-year increase of 12.7% to 16.3% during the same period [3] - Equipment and materials manufacturers in Taiwan also reported positive growth, breaking a trend of decline that lasted for over a year [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Ibiden, as the packaging substrate industry in Japan is expected to achieve steady growth due to the influence of high-end AI servers from Nvidia [4]