Core Viewpoints - Revenue meets expectations, operating profit exceeds expectations by approximately 6% [1] - Japan Uniqlo sales gross margin increased by 2.9pct year-on-year [2] - Europe and America Uniqlo business has entered a positive cycle [2] - FY2025-27 revenue is expected to be 3.5/3.9/4.4 trillion yen, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 3,964/4,285/4,734 billion yen [2] Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue: 3.1 trillion yen, up 12.2% year-on-year [1] - Japan Uniqlo: 932.2 billion yen, up 5% [1] - Overseas Uniqlo: 1,711.8 billion yen, up 19% [1] - GU: 319.2 billion yen, up 8% [1] - FY2024 operating profit: 500.9 billion yen, up 31.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations by 6.1% [1] - Japan Uniqlo: 155.8 billion yen, up 32% [1] - Overseas Uniqlo: 283.4 billion yen, up 25% [1] - GU: 33.7 billion yen, up 29% [1] - FY2025 revenue guidance: 3.4 trillion yen, up 9.5% [1] - FY2025 operating profit guidance: 530 billion yen, up 5.8% [1] Business Segments - Japan Uniqlo: - FY2024 sales gross margin increased by 2.9pct to 50.8% [2] - Duty-free sales accounted for 8% of total revenue in FY2H24, doubling year-on-year [2] - FY2025 revenue and sales gross margin expected to grow slightly, with operating profit margin remaining flat [2] - Europe and America Uniqlo: - FY2024 revenue grew by 34.6% year-on-year [2] - Operating profit margin increased by 3.2pct to 16.4% [2] - Overall overseas Uniqlo operating profit margin increased by 0.8pct to 16.6% [2] Financial Forecasts - FY2025-27 revenue forecast: 3.5/3.9/4.4 trillion yen [2] - FY2025-27 net profit attributable to the parent company forecast: 3,964/4,285/4,734 billion yen [2] - Current P/E ratio: 44/41/37 times [2] - Target price adjusted to 53,000 yen, with a "Neutral" rating maintained [2] Market Data - Closing price: 54,490 yen [3] - 52-week low/high: 32,590/55,310 yen [3] - P/B ratio: 7.4 times [3] - Market capitalization: 17.3 trillion yen [3] - Net asset value per share: 6,731.0 yen [3] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 43.3% [3] - Total shares outstanding: 318.2 million [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The MRO industry in the U.S. showed signs of recovery in September 2024, with macroeconomic data improving and growth driven primarily by price increases in August [1]. - The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained stable at 47.2, while the ISM Services PMI increased to 54.9, indicating a continued recovery in the services sector [1]. - The probability of an economic recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months decreased to 56.2% from 60.8%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook [1]. - The ADP reported an increase of 143,000 new jobs in August, up from 99,000 in the previous month, suggesting a positive trend in employment [1]. - The capacity utilization rate for all industrial sectors in the U.S. rose to 78.0% in August, up from 77.4% [1]. - The MRO industry's growth in August was primarily driven by price increases, with the PPI for private capital equipment rising by 2.5% year-on-year [1]. - U.S. private domestic investment grew by 7.4% year-on-year in Q2 2024, up from 6.0% in the previous quarter, indicating a strengthening investment environment [1]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Data - In September 2024, U.S. macroeconomic data showed improvement, with key indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI reflecting stability and recovery [1]. - The overall economic outlook improved as the probability of recession decreased and employment figures showed positive growth [1]. MRO Industry Performance - The MRO industry experienced growth in August, primarily attributed to price increases rather than volume [1]. - The PPI for private capital equipment rose by 2.5% year-on-year, indicating upward price pressure in the MRO sector [1]. Investment Trends - U.S. private investment and exports showed significant growth in Q2 2024, with GDP growth also improving, suggesting a favorable environment for the MRO industry [1].

证券研究报告·公司研究·日本半导体 LASERTEC（6920.T） [Table_Main] FY2024 年报业绩点评：业绩增长打破质 疑，EUV 系列产品收入大幅增加&需求旺盛 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | 营业总收入（十亿日元） | 213.5 | 276.9 | 361.0 | 467.3 | | 同比 | 39.7% | 29.7% | 30.4% | 29.5% | | 归属母公司净利润（十亿日 元） | 59.1 | 81.4 | 109.8 | 140.2 | | 同比 | 28.0% | 37.8% | 34.9% | 27.7% | | 每股收益 - 最新股本摊薄（日元 / 股） | 626.6 | 863.3 | 1164.4 | 1486.7 | | P/E （现价 & ...

THK（6481.T） 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·日本机械 [Table_Main] 2024 年二季报点评：业绩超市场预期，利润弹性有 望逐步释放 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|--------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 营业总收入（十亿日元） | 351.9 | 371.8 | 414.9 | 446.1 | | | 同比 | -10.6% | 5.7% | 11.6% | 7.5% | | | 归母净利润（十亿日元） | 18.4 | 19.7 | 23.5 | 26.8 | | | 同比 | -13.2% | 7.1% | 19.0% | 14.4% | | | 每股收益 - 最新股本摊薄（日元 / 股） | 150.1 | 160.8 | 191.4 | 218.9 | | | P/E ( 现价 & 最新股本摊薄 ) | 0. ...

证券研究报告·公司研究·日本半导体 IBIDEN（4062.T） [Table_Main] 1Q24 业绩点评：AI 产品需求维持旺盛，营 业利润超出市场预期 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|--------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（十亿日元） | 370.5 | 431.6 | 531.0 | 643.3 | | 同比 | -11.3% | 16.5% | 23.0% | 21.2% | | 归属母公司净利润（十亿日元） | 31.5 | 39.5 | 57.2 | 80.8 | | 同比 | 8.4% | 25.4% | 44.8% | 41.3% | | 每股收益 - 最新股本摊薄（日元 / 股） | 223.6 | 280.4 | 406.0 | 573.7 | | P/E （现价 & 最新股本摊薄） | 19.1 | 15.3 | 10.5 | 7 ...

NSK（6471.T） 证券研究报告·公司研究·日本机械 ◼ 全球轴承行业龙头，海外业务驱动增长。NSK 是日本第一家设计生产轴 承的厂商，目前已发展为全球轴承行业的领军者，市占率稳居日本第一、 全球第三，主要客户包括日本电装、丰田、本田、NIDEC 等知名公司。 分产品来看，2022 财年产业机械轴承/汽车轴承的营收占比分别为 34%/30%，滚珠丝杠&直线导轨合计营收占比为 7%，汽车传动系统相关 产品的营收占比为 8%。分地区来看，海外业务已逐步成为公司新一轮 增长引擎，2023 财年美洲/中国业务的营收占比已分别提升至 18%/20%， 欧洲业务的营收占比维持 14%，日本业务的营收占比则下滑至 34%。 ◼ 看好 2024 财年毛利率上行。营收端，公司产业机械业务的营收波动较 为明显，主要受到机床、半导体设备等下游产业周期的影响；汽车业务 的营收则主要随全球汽车产量而波动，与产业机械业务的营收变化相对 独立，平滑了公司整体的营收周期。利润端，公司固定成本较高，经营 杠杆显著，毛利率波动方向与营收基本一致但波动幅度较营收更大。我 们看好 2024 财年毛利率上行，主要系：1）2023 财年，公司旗下 ...

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity is expected to reach 490GW in 2024, representing a 21% year-on-year increase, with domestic demand projected to grow steadily [2][14] - The domestic market is anticipated to add 240GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while the first five months of 2024 saw a 29.3% increase in new installations [14][16] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The silicon material sector is expected to produce over 2 million tons in 2024, with prices dropping to 35,000-40,000 RMB per ton, indicating a significant decline in profitability [2] - The inverter market is benefiting from the rise in energy storage and overseas markets, with a notable increase in demand from emerging markets [2][16] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - In the first quarter of 2024, ground-mounted installations accounted for 47.9% of new capacity, with significant contributions from commercial and residential sectors [9] - The average bidding price for components has dropped below 0.9 RMB/W, with N-type and bifacial modules gaining market share [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The industry is entering a phase of supply clearing, with overcapacity in the main supply chain leading to pressure on profitability, particularly in the silicon wafer and module manufacturing sectors [2][4] - The company is focusing on new technologies such as N-type cells and perovskite materials to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with expectations for significant advancements in the coming years [2][4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the high growth phase for PV demand has passed, and the industry is now entering a period of stable growth, with supply-demand balance expected to improve [6][14] - The management expressed concerns about potential policy changes and competition intensifying, which could impact future growth [2][4] Other Important Information - The company highlighted the importance of technological innovation in maintaining competitive advantages, particularly in the inverter and auxiliary materials sectors [2][4] - Risks include intensified competition, grid absorption issues, and unexpected changes in PV policies that could affect new installation volumes [2][4] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the domestic PV market in 2024? - The domestic market is expected to add 240GW in 2024, with a steady growth trajectory despite potential short-term bottlenecks due to grid absorption issues [14] Question: How is the company addressing the challenges in the silicon material sector? - The company is monitoring the price trends closely and is prepared to adjust production levels in response to market conditions to mitigate profitability pressures [2] Question: What are the key technological advancements the company is focusing on? - The company is investing in N-type cell technology and perovskite materials, which are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs significantly in the near future [2][4]

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The overall market size of China's automotive travel industry is projected to grow steadily, with an estimated market size of 8.54 trillion yuan in 2023, increasing to 9.30 trillion yuan by 2030 [11] - The penetration rate of shared travel is expected to rise from 5.3% in 2023 to 6.0% by 2030, indicating a growing trend towards shared mobility solutions [11] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The B-end shared travel market size is forecasted to reach 4.56 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [11] - The Robotaxi market size is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 0.5 billion yuan in 2026 and reaching 4161 billion yuan by 2030, capturing a substantial share of the shared travel market [11] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The number of registered ride-hailing drivers in China increased from 4.07 million in March 2022 to 7.03 million by May 2024, reflecting a strong demand for shared mobility services [8] - The private car ownership is projected to peak by 2028, with the Robotaxi market expected to replace a significant portion of this segment [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The industry is witnessing a shift towards AI-driven smart transformation, with Robotaxi emerging as a preferred direction for commercialization [3] - Companies like Tesla are positioned as leaders in the Robotaxi space, leveraging self-developed driving software and hardware solutions to create a positive cycle of technology, traffic, and profitability [2] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management emphasizes that the combination of policy support, technological advancements, and operational improvements will drive the scalability of Robotaxi services, with 2026 anticipated as a pivotal year for mass production [2] - The management also highlighted the importance of reducing operational costs and improving efficiency through the deployment of Robotaxi services [45] Other Important Information - The Robotaxi industry is supported by various government policies aimed at promoting smart transportation and the integration of vehicle-road-cloud systems [12] - The competitive landscape includes major players like Baidu and various OEMs, all vying for market share in the burgeoning Robotaxi sector [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key drivers for the growth of the Robotaxi market? - The growth is primarily driven by policy support, technological advancements in autonomous driving, and the operational efficiency of Robotaxi services [2][3] Question: How does the company view the competition in the Robotaxi space? - The company acknowledges the competitive landscape but believes that its technological edge and strategic partnerships will position it favorably against competitors [30] Question: What are the anticipated challenges for Robotaxi deployment? - Key challenges include regulatory hurdles, the need for a standardized approval process, and the establishment of clear liability frameworks for autonomous vehicles [48]

Investment Highlights - The report indicates that the company achieved revenue of 767.5 billion yen in FY3Q24, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.5%, slightly exceeding the expected 744.3 billion yen [19] - The revenue breakdown shows that Uniqlo Japan, overseas Uniqlo, GU, and global brands generated revenues of 236.9, 408.9, 86.9, and 34.4 billion yen respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +10%, +19%, +5%, and -5% [19] - The company expects the gross profit margin for FY2H24 to remain stable, with a sales gross margin of 56.5% in FY3Q24, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [19] Financial Forecasts - For FY2024, the company raised its revenue guidance from 3.03 trillion yen to 3.07 trillion yen, a 1.3% increase, and the operating profit guidance from 450 billion yen to 475 billion yen, a 5.6% increase [19] - The net profit guidance for FY2024 was also raised from 320 billion yen to 365 billion yen, reflecting a 14.1% increase [19] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 400 yen for FY2024, with an interim dividend of 175 yen and a final dividend of 225 yen [19] Regional Performance - In the Greater China region, Uniqlo achieved revenue of 162 billion yen in FY3Q24, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, but showed a decline when measured in RMB [19] - The report highlights challenges in the Greater China market, including decreased consumer spending and geographical product mismatches [19] - Future strategies include focusing on store quality in cities with sales potential and enhancing the synergy between online and offline sales, aiming to increase e-commerce sales from over 20% to 30% of total revenue [19] Valuation and Ratings - The report maintains the company's net profit forecasts for FY2024-2026 at 341.9, 374.6, and 408.4 billion yen respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 41, 38, and 36 times [19] - The target price is set at 47,300 yen, with a "neutral" rating maintained [19]

核心观点 美团股价及到店酒旅业务复盘：V型反转。23年到店业务与抖音的竞争成为美团股价的主要矛盾，全年估值压制 明显；24年初核心业务出现边际改善，戴维斯双击，实现V型反转。疫后美团GTV修复速度好于预期，我们测算 得23年与抖音核销前GTV比例维持在2以上，但23年也是竞争最激烈的一年：降佣返佣动作使美团货币化率从 10%下降到7%~8%，面向消费者的补贴使公司到店酒旅业务运营利润率从45%下降到30%。2024年由于抖音开 始转向追求变现，竞争趋于缓和和理性，双方更加注重提升货币化率。24Q1公司货币化率开始触底回升，利润率 环比改善；Q2Q3我们预计继续环比改善。 抖音模式的长期逻辑：低核销的种草平台、头部化趋势不可逆（美团50%GTV为中小商家，抖音80%GTV来自连 锁商家）、难以触碰美团变现核心品类（美团到综品类收入贡献约40%至45%，其中休闲娱乐、三美收入占大 头） 投资建议：重点推荐美团-W。1）外卖单量和AOV虽承压，但公司对UE具有极强的把控能力，广告货币化率提升 和补贴优化将对冲AOV下滑影响，骑手成本优化将驱动UE进一步提升，外卖全年利润存在超预期可能；2）今年 抖音将更多关注盈利， ...