策略 | 2024 年 7 月 19 日 建银国际证券|研究部 环球市场脉搏 (2024 年 7 月) 市场焦点 — 欧美政局的瞬息全宇宙 今年早些时候，市场观察人士曾警告说，2024 年是一个选举年，但也许直到最近两周，大多数投资者才真正感 受到这一点。随着拜登和特朗普的首次辩论（2024 年 6 月 27 日）、英国大选（2024 年 7 月 4 日）和法国大选 （2024 年 6 月 30 日至 7 月 7 日）的举行，以及最近发生的特朗普遇袭事件（2024 年 7 月 13 日）。三个主要发 达经济体的政治气候似乎在过去两周发生了变化。在七月刊中，我们试图阐述美英法发生了什么，以及对资本 市场的影响。 在英国，随着一场轰动的投票结束了保守党14年的统治，并使中左派的工党在2024年大选中取得压倒性胜利， 政治板块正在发生转变。投资者对新政府欢呼雀跃，并预期工党能带来近年保守派所未见的稳定，股市短期上 涨。 蓝筹股 FT100 在选举日上涨 1%。英镑在苏纳克突发宣布提前大选后保持相对稳定，并在工党获胜后兑美元 有所走强，表明市场更加关注经济数据和货币政策。由于通胀接近 2% 的目标，英国央行预计最早将 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the concept of "new quality productivity," which is driven by innovation and aims to enhance China's economic growth and international standing [1][2] - It highlights the significant growth of strategic emerging industries in China, with their contribution to GDP increasing from 7.6% in 2014 to over 13% in 2023, and projected to reach 17% by 2025 [2] - The digital economy in China has seen remarkable growth, expanding from 11 trillion yuan in 2012 to 50.2 trillion yuan in 2022, and is expected to reach 60% of GDP by 2027 [2] Industry and Company Summaries - The report identifies key sectors that align with new quality productivity, including advanced manufacturing, new energy, and digital economy, which are crucial for high-quality economic growth [1][2] - It suggests that investors focus on opportunities within the artificial intelligence industry, recommending companies such as Baidu and Tencent [4] - In the semiconductor sector, companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] - The report also points to high-end manufacturing firms such as SANY Heavy Industry and CRRC as key players in the market [4] - In the new energy sector, Longi Green Energy and GCL-Poly Energy are recommended for investment consideration [4] - The biotechnology industry is represented by companies like Innovent Biologics, which is also suggested for investment [4]

二季度复苏步伐受服务业影响而放缓。工业生产仍是经济增长的主要驱动力，制造业升级、贸易 和绿色相关行业持续走强。尽管线下消费稳步改善，但服务业修复总体较为疲软。地产业出现了 一些改善迹象。GDP 平减指数同比降幅较一季度有所收窄，总体价格水平有所回升。 Kevin Xie (852) 3911 8241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com GDP growth for 2Q 2024 came in at 0.7% QoQ, missing both our and the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 0.8% QoQ and 0.9% QoQ, respectively. Furthermore, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) lowered its 1Q 2024 sequential growth estimate by 0.1ppt. Therefore, year-to-date GDP growth slowed to 5.0% YoY in 1H 2024, in line with the gove ...

宏观策略专题 | 2024 年 7 月 18 日 Although the rate-cutting cycle will push interest rates down, the potential magnitude of rate declines is limited; moreover, there is a risk of a sharp rebound. Given the cooling US economy, we expect the Fed will embark on an easing cycle in September at which time the US dollar will begin to decline. However, the Fed is trying to manage medium-term inflation expectations. We expect the Fed will proceed with an easing cycle with greater caution, and interet rates could rebound onc ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Wanda Film (002739 CH) and Maoyan Entertainment (1896 HK) due to their leading positions in the industry and successful expansion in upstream production and distribution [3][5][8]. Core Insights - The Chinese film industry is expected to experience moderate growth, with a projected annual compound growth rate of 6% for box office revenue from 2024 to 2026 [3][8]. - The Z generation, which constitutes about 20% of China's population, is driving domestic consumption and has a preference for diverse and realistic content [4][7]. - Technological upgrades, including the application of AIGC in various production processes, are enhancing the cinematic experience and attracting audiences back to theaters [4][7]. - The popularity of domestic films has significantly increased, contributing to approximately 85% of box office revenue from 2020 to 2023, up from 55%-65% pre-pandemic [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a decline of 9% in box office performance in the first half of 2024, but anticipates an 8% rebound in the second half, leading to an estimated total box office of 54.9 billion RMB for the year [4][7]. - The production cycle normalization post-pandemic is expected to accelerate film supply starting in 2025, with projected box office revenues of 60.5 billion RMB and 64.8 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][7]. Audience Trends - The Z generation's demand for more diverse and culturally resonant content is reshaping film production, leading to increased costs but also opportunities for innovation [3][4]. - The report notes a rise in adaptations of Chinese mythology in animated films, reflecting the industry's responsiveness to audience preferences [7]. Technological Advancements - AIGC is revolutionizing scriptwriting, scene development, and post-production, potentially shortening production times and enhancing quality [4][7]. - Advanced cinema technologies, such as laser projection and immersive sound systems, are creating experiences that home streaming cannot match [4][7]. Market Leaders - Wanda Film and Maoyan Entertainment are identified as key beneficiaries of industry trends, with strong market positions and growth potential [3][5][8]. - Light Chaser Animation (300251 CH) is rated "Neutral" due to uncertainties regarding the release timing of its key projects [5][8].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant role of optical modules in data communication and telecommunications, driven by the demand from artificial intelligence (AI) and bandwidth upgrades, indicating a long-term growth phase for the industry [2][3][11] - Chinese suppliers hold a substantial market share of approximately 40-50% in the optical module market, showcasing their leadership in high-speed optical module technology [2][3] Industry Overview - The telecommunications sector is experiencing stable growth, with the AI boom generating immense demand for data communication optical modules. The development of large language models (LLMs) by global AI and software companies is increasing the need for high-speed data transmission [3][11] - The transition of data center optical modules to 400G/800G standards is underway, with 400G being the latest standard for high-speed Ethernet client interfaces. The demand for 800G modules is expected to rise significantly due to the needs of large-scale data centers, cloud computing, and AI computing centers [3][11] - AI clusters account for approximately 30% of total sales of Ethernet optical modules, driving the demand for 400G, 800G, and 1.6T optical modules. New technologies such as LPO, CPO, coherent optics, and silicon photonics (SiPh) are expected to enhance connectivity [3] Company Analysis: InnoLight (中际旭创) - InnoLight is rated as outperforming the market, with a product range from 10G to 1.6T data rates, and is a global leader in high-speed optical modules for cloud-based data centers. The company was the first to launch 1.6T ultra-high-speed optical module products [4][12] - InnoLight holds a market share of approximately 50% in the 800G optical module segment and is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for high-speed optical modules driven by AI and bandwidth upgrades [4][12] - The company is diversifying its manufacturing capabilities overseas, with a factory in Thailand that began mass production in 2022, enhancing its global influence [4] Company Analysis: NewEase (新易盛) - NewEase is rated as neutral, with a market share of about 5-10% in the optical module market, ranking seventh in 2022. The company is also one of the few suppliers of 400G and 800G optical modules, holding a market share of 10-20% in the 800G segment [12] - The company is expanding its production capacity through bond issuance and is making progress in the certification of its 800G products with leading data center clients, expecting a significant increase in shipments in 2024 [12] - NewEase's forward P/E ratio for 2024 is projected at 61 times, which is considered high compared to its historical average, leading to a neutral rating [12]

Economic Recovery and Policy Measures - Domestic recovery is ongoing, with retail sales in May exceeding market expectations, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.6% in industrial production despite a slowdown in growth rate[1][11]. - Recent property easing measures are expected to gradually take effect, with property sales in certain cities rebounding, although national sales remain sluggish, with a projected contraction of 31% in property sales this year[1][12]. - Local government special bond issuance is anticipated to accelerate in the second half of the year, supporting economic growth[1][14]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to maintain sufficient liquidity and may cut the reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points in the second half of the year, while the likelihood of interest rate cuts remains low[1][14]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady until September, with a forecast of a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts this year, starting with a 25 basis point cut in September[1][17]. - US Treasury yields are projected to trade within the ranges of 4.5%-4.9% for 2-year bonds and 4.2%-4.6% for 10-year bonds in the third quarter, before declining to 4.5% and 4.3% respectively by year-end[1][17]. Currency and Bond Market Trends - The US dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the USDCNY forecasted to decline to 7.0 by year-end due to improving domestic growth expectations in China[1][14]. - Dim sum bond issuance is likely to increase, driven by structural factors, despite a general decline in overseas capital inflow into emerging markets[1][10][32]. - The Japanese yen is projected to face inflationary pressures, with expectations of a rate hike of 20-30 basis points in the second half of the year[1][14].

医疗保健和生物科技 长期利好创新药物发展 ► 长期利好创新药发展 更多积极政策已开始扩展到国家层面。早在今年 4 月份， 最少三个主要城市包括北京、广州和珠海已发布支持创新 药政策。我们认为上述进展将有助于（1）吸引更多生物 科技或其他以研发为基础的药硏公司在滨海新区设立工厂 或研发中心，因为可能会受惠于政府补贴或其他税收相关 优惠; （2）将人工智能（AI）助力新药研发和其他医疗行 业相关的管理；（3）鼓励互联网医疗领域有更多高科技发 展。我们认为，此类政策举措有机会扩展至全国，有利于 中国生物科技领域的龙头企业（正如我们在 2024 年 7 月 2 日 和 2024 年 6 月 6 日 的报告中所指出）和其他国内人 工智能相关药研公司（正如我们在 2023 年 10 月 17 日 和 2023 年 8 月 8 日的报告中所指出)。 本报告由建银国际证券有限公司撰写，分析师证明及其他重要声明请见报告最后一页。 1 优于大市 ─ 于未来 12 个月预期回报为高于 10% 中性 ─ 于未来 12 个月预期回报在-10%至 10%之间 弱于大市 ─ 于未来 12 个月预期回报低于-10% 本文由建银国际证券有限公 ...

CCBI SECURITIES | RESEARCH China Economics Update: Recovery continues, though still at a modest pace 中国经济评论: 复苏持续，但依旧温和 Kevin Xie (852) 3911 8241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com Huiting Yan (852) 3911 8012 yanhuiting@ccbintl.com 我们预计保增长的政策在年内持续。6 月下调存款准备金率 25 个基点仍是我们的基准预测，但 有可能推迟到 3 季度。降息目前概率较小。 Economics | 17 June 2024 Industrial production (IP) growth slowed to 5.6% YoY in May (previous: 6.7% YoY; consensus: 6.2% YoY). Seasonally adjusted sequential growth edged down to 0.3% MoM in May (versus 1.0% MoM in Apr). By i ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic landscape in 2024 resembles that of 2023, with unresolved issues persisting [18] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of resilience, with expectations of interest rate cuts in the third and fourth quarters of 2024 [12][20] - The housing market remains a significant factor in inflation, with rental prices contributing to persistent inflationary pressures [32] Group 2 - The report highlights that excess savings in the U.S. are nearly depleted, which may negatively impact future consumer spending [36][43] - Consumer confidence indices are diverging, suggesting a potential slowdown in consumer spending, particularly in non-essential areas [29][49] - The healthcare sector is noted for its strong job creation, offsetting weaknesses in other sectors, driven by structural changes post-pandemic [62] Group 3 - The report anticipates that major developed economies, particularly in Europe, may initiate interest rate cuts earlier than the U.S., with potential support for stock markets [20][23] - The performance of the U.S. stock market has exceeded many analysts' expectations, with the S&P 500 projected to reach a high of 5500 within the year [20] - The report maintains a positive outlook on equity markets, particularly in developed countries, while suggesting opportunities in high-rated bonds as interest rates are expected to decline [23]